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Gazing at the crystal ball...
July 17, 2006
Rohan Connolly
The Age
Adelaide's consistency has been the one constant in 2006. But after 15 rounds, there's at least an effective basis for comparison. Rohan Connolly looks at how the final eight may shape up.
ADELAIDE
By how far? The Crows continue to look in a league of their own — No. 1 on the ladder with a massive percentage, a clear leader in points scored and points conceded, only two games lost by an aggregate five points, and with five of their last seven matches at AAMI Stadium. Incredibly even and well-drilled, it's hard to see Adelaide dropping another match at this stage. Beating Neil Craig's team now is going to require something out of the ordinary, something its rivals don't appear to possess.
RUN HOME: Kang (AAMI Stadium), WC (S), Coll (AAMI), Frem (AAMI), WB (MCG), Port (AAMI), Melb (AAMI).
Predicted finish: 20-2, First.
BRISBANE LIONS
Five losses from their first six games effectively killed off the Lions, but there's been enough to enthuse about since with this once powerhouse now in a transitional phase, youngsters such as Justin Sherman, Michael Rischitelli and Matthew Moody having reduced the reliance upon Michael Voss, Simon Black, Jason Akermanis and co. Tough finish to the year means Lions won't make the finals, but at least seem to have set up a genuine tilt at 2007.
RUN HOME: Haw (Gabba), Ess (TD), Geel (G), Rich (TD), WC (G), Syd (TS), StK (G).
Predicted finish: 9-13, 11th.
CARLTON
They've become used to pain at Princes Park, and there's been plenty more in 2006 with only two wins, though there's been five games lost by 15 points or less amid some of the beltings. Brendan Fevola and Lance Whitnall have stood tall in attack and defence, Marc Murphy was a shining light till his season ended prematurely, and Andrew Walker's improvement continues, but next week's clash with Essendon could well determine whether there's to be a third wooden spoon in five years headed the Blues' way.
RUN HOME: Ess (MCG), Frem (TD), Melb (TD), Haw (MCG), Rich (TD), Coll (MCG), Syd (SCG).
Predicted finish: 3-19, 15th
COLLINGWOOD
A Disastrous mid-season spell — yesterday's loss to Fremantle the Magpies' fourth in their past five outings — has put their finals hopes on the line, let alone their chances of a top-four finish. Collingwood has lost that all-important midfield run and its direction going forward. Heath Shaw and Dane Swan have been important additions, but injuries to a couple of runners and now key defender Simon Prestigiacomo have come at precisely the wrong moments. Nice run home, but West Coast and Adelaide over the next three weeks could really put a dint in what started out so promisingly.
RUN HOME: WC (TD), Haw (MCG), Adel (AAMI), Ess (MCG), Port A (AAMI), Carl (MCG), Kang (MCG).
Predicted finish: 13-9, 6th.
ESSENDON
Truly the year from hell for the Bombers, with injuries to Matthew Lloyd and James Hird and a sizeable chunk of the rest of their list proving a fatal blow. Kevin Sheedy's side has stayed competitive at least, with seven games lost by 13 points or less. The younger crew of Jobe Watson and Brent Stanton have continued to grow in stature, and there's been five debutants blooded, but whether Hird plays on or not, there appears quite a bit more pain for those at Windy Hill to go through yet.
RUN HOME: Carl (MCG), BL (TD), Syd (SCG), Coll (MCG), Haw (TD), Rich (MCG), W Bull (TD).
Predicted finish: 1-21, 16th.
FREMANTLE
Critical victory yesterday put the Dockers back in the eight, where they might well stay provided, and it remains a pretty big "if", their propensity to shoot themselves in the foot doesn't resurface. With its key players in Matthew Pavlich, Jeff Farmer, Josh Carr, Peter Bell and Aaron Sandilands firing, Fremantle has a best that can trouble most. Its worst can still be appalling, however. Big challenge looms this week against Melbourne at home, where there'll be more testing assignments against Adelaide, St Kilda and fierce local rival the Eagles.
RUN HOME: Melb (S), Carl (TD), Haw (S), Adel (AAMI), StK (S), WC (S), Port A (S).
Predicted finish: 12-10, 8th
GEELONG
A pre-season premiership and two strong opening wins were the calm before a very sizeable storm of seven losses from the next eight, the Cats left chasing tail ever since. Continued injuries to key players certainly haven't helped, and there's been a partial recovery since most of that group returned, but even yesterday's home win over Port Adelaide did little to convince that Geelong is anywhere near the flag threat it genuinely appeared back in March. Too much work to do to make it now, with too little time.
RUN HOME: W Bull (TD), Kang (Manuka), BL (G), StK (TD), Syd (SS), Melb (SS), Haw (TD).
Predicted finish: 10-12, 10th
HAWTHORN
Raised expectations with four wins from its first five games, hopes doused emphatically by nine losses out its next 10. The young Hawks haven't come on like they might have, but the past month has been a lot more encouraging, and Jordan Lewis, Jarryd Roughead and lately, Lance "Buddy" Franklin all have taken significant steps forward. There's some very winnable games in the last few rounds, and eight or nine wins wouldn't be too bad a result, given the extent of the Hawks' mid-season slump.
RUN HOME: BL (G), Coll (MCG), Frem (S), Carl (MCG), Ess (TD), Kang (AU), Geel (TD).
Predicted finish: 8-14, 12th
KANGAROOS
Very ordinary effort from a side that finished last season's home-and-away rounds in fifth spot. A good win to start against Port Adelaide was followed by nine losses from the next 10 games. Saturday night's wasteful effort against the Brisbane Lions was particularly disappointing. Youngsters in Hamish McIntosh, Josh Gibson, Joel Perry, Ben Schwarze and Andrew Swallow have been given a chance, but there's still an unhealthy reliance on the older brigade to carry the Roos.
RUN HOME: Adel (AAMI), Geel (Manuka), Port A (TD), WC (S), Melb (MCG), Haw (AU), Coll (MCG).
Predicted finish: 6-16, 14th
MELBOURNE
The early-season "crisis" calls, not to mention those for Neale Daniher's head, look pretty silly now, the Demons having won 11 of their last 12. Adding a harder edge to an already skilful, running profile and a potent forward set-up has been the key, Melbourne leading the competition for tackles. There's a tough little finish to the home-and-away season in store, Geelong and Adelaide both away, but the Demons look likely to joust with West Coast for the all-important second spot on the table.
RUN HOME: Frem (S), W Bull (MCG), Carl (TD), Syd (MCG), Kang (MCG), Geel (SS), Adel (AAMI).
Predicted finish: 16-6, 3rd
PORT ADELAIDE
Six losses in the first eight rounds put a pretty effective line through the Power's hopes of achieving anything substantial in 2006, though there's been some pluses for the future in the fortunes of youngsters Steven Salopek, Danyle Pearce, Brad Symes and Jacob Surjan. Might not have to go through as much pain as appeared the case at stages earlier this year, but the rest of this season is little more than preparation for 2007.
RUN HOME: StK (Aurora), Syd (AAMI), Kang (TD), W Bull (Marrara), Coll (AAMI), Adel (AAMI), Frem (S).
Predicted finish: 7-15, 13th
RICHMOND
Two absolute beltings early on at the hands of the Western Bulldogs and Sydney have left Richmond with a very poor percentage that could prove very costly, but the gains for the Tigers in 2006 have been substantial. Ruckman Troy Simmonds and forward Kayne Pettifer have been two of the AFL's most improved, Patrick Bowden has been a more-than-handy acquisition, and Andrew Raines, Dean Polo and Nathan Foley have been revelations. Next three weeks against Sydney, St Kilda and the Bulldogs will make or break finals hopes.
RUN HOME: Syd (SCG), StK (MCG), W Bull (MCG), BL (TD), Carl (TD), Ess (MCG), WC (MCG).
Predicted finish:11-11, 9th
ST KILDA
Injuries to key players Aaron Hamill, Justin Koschitzke and Lenny Hayes have been cruel, and a factor in a frustrating inconsistency by a side freely tipped for the premiership pre-season. The upside has been a significant tightening of its defensive qualities, Sam Fisher and Max Hudghton outstanding in the key positions, and Jason Gram a vastly improved rebounding runner. Four wins from the last five have steadied the Saints' ship, with a top-four finish still very much on the cards.
RUN HOME: Port A (Aurora), Rich (MCG), WC (TD), Geel (TD), Frem (S), W Bull (TD), BL (G).
Predicted finish: 15-7, 4th
SYDNEY SWANS
Slow start followed by a purple patch of six straight wins, but the Swans have hit troubled waters again, losing four of their past five. Have looked more potent up forward at times, but might also have lost just a little of that midfield steel so central to their 2005 triumph, and three losses by less than a goal, including Saturday night's classic against West Coast, could end up proving very costly in terms of finals positioning. Successive away games against Melbourne and Geelong will be the key to their likely finish.
RUN HOME: Rich (SCG), Port A (AAMI), Ess (SCG), Melb (MCG), Geel (SS), BL (TS), Carl (SCG).
Predicted finish: 13-9, 7th
WEST COAST
The Eagles haven't been at anything like their peak for at least six games now, but have still managed to win four of them. The midfield class of Chris Judd, Ben Cousins, Daniel Kerr and co is a perennial huge advantage. Defender David Wirrpanda and "swingman" Adam Hunter have been superb, and Adam Selwood a handy plus, but it's the still questionable capacity of key forwards Quinten Lynch and Ashley Hansen to kick enough goals that is the key, along with a top-two finish likely to be determined by games against Adelaide and St Kilda (away) in the next few weeks.
RUN HOME: Coll (TD), Adel (S), StK (TD), Kang (S), BL (G), Frem (S), Rich (MCG).
Predicted finish: 17-5, 2nd
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Have stood tall metaphorically while losing just about every tall on their list at some stage. Rodney Eade's brilliantly marshalled list is full of run and utilises its skilled delivery to its maximum. Will stretch any team at ground level, but can be stretched itself against those with strong key forwards. Top-four finish still a distinct possibility, likely to be determined by the clashes with Adelaide and St Kilda, to whom they lost first time this season, in rounds 21 and 22.
RUN HOME: Geel (TD), Melb (MCG), Rich (MCG), Port A (Marrara), Adel (MCG), St K (TD), Ess (TD).
Predicted finish: 15-7, 5th
July 17, 2006
Rohan Connolly
The Age
Adelaide's consistency has been the one constant in 2006. But after 15 rounds, there's at least an effective basis for comparison. Rohan Connolly looks at how the final eight may shape up.
ADELAIDE
By how far? The Crows continue to look in a league of their own — No. 1 on the ladder with a massive percentage, a clear leader in points scored and points conceded, only two games lost by an aggregate five points, and with five of their last seven matches at AAMI Stadium. Incredibly even and well-drilled, it's hard to see Adelaide dropping another match at this stage. Beating Neil Craig's team now is going to require something out of the ordinary, something its rivals don't appear to possess.
RUN HOME: Kang (AAMI Stadium), WC (S), Coll (AAMI), Frem (AAMI), WB (MCG), Port (AAMI), Melb (AAMI).
Predicted finish: 20-2, First.
BRISBANE LIONS
Five losses from their first six games effectively killed off the Lions, but there's been enough to enthuse about since with this once powerhouse now in a transitional phase, youngsters such as Justin Sherman, Michael Rischitelli and Matthew Moody having reduced the reliance upon Michael Voss, Simon Black, Jason Akermanis and co. Tough finish to the year means Lions won't make the finals, but at least seem to have set up a genuine tilt at 2007.
RUN HOME: Haw (Gabba), Ess (TD), Geel (G), Rich (TD), WC (G), Syd (TS), StK (G).
Predicted finish: 9-13, 11th.
CARLTON
They've become used to pain at Princes Park, and there's been plenty more in 2006 with only two wins, though there's been five games lost by 15 points or less amid some of the beltings. Brendan Fevola and Lance Whitnall have stood tall in attack and defence, Marc Murphy was a shining light till his season ended prematurely, and Andrew Walker's improvement continues, but next week's clash with Essendon could well determine whether there's to be a third wooden spoon in five years headed the Blues' way.
RUN HOME: Ess (MCG), Frem (TD), Melb (TD), Haw (MCG), Rich (TD), Coll (MCG), Syd (SCG).
Predicted finish: 3-19, 15th
COLLINGWOOD
A Disastrous mid-season spell — yesterday's loss to Fremantle the Magpies' fourth in their past five outings — has put their finals hopes on the line, let alone their chances of a top-four finish. Collingwood has lost that all-important midfield run and its direction going forward. Heath Shaw and Dane Swan have been important additions, but injuries to a couple of runners and now key defender Simon Prestigiacomo have come at precisely the wrong moments. Nice run home, but West Coast and Adelaide over the next three weeks could really put a dint in what started out so promisingly.
RUN HOME: WC (TD), Haw (MCG), Adel (AAMI), Ess (MCG), Port A (AAMI), Carl (MCG), Kang (MCG).
Predicted finish: 13-9, 6th.
ESSENDON
Truly the year from hell for the Bombers, with injuries to Matthew Lloyd and James Hird and a sizeable chunk of the rest of their list proving a fatal blow. Kevin Sheedy's side has stayed competitive at least, with seven games lost by 13 points or less. The younger crew of Jobe Watson and Brent Stanton have continued to grow in stature, and there's been five debutants blooded, but whether Hird plays on or not, there appears quite a bit more pain for those at Windy Hill to go through yet.
RUN HOME: Carl (MCG), BL (TD), Syd (SCG), Coll (MCG), Haw (TD), Rich (MCG), W Bull (TD).
Predicted finish: 1-21, 16th.
FREMANTLE
Critical victory yesterday put the Dockers back in the eight, where they might well stay provided, and it remains a pretty big "if", their propensity to shoot themselves in the foot doesn't resurface. With its key players in Matthew Pavlich, Jeff Farmer, Josh Carr, Peter Bell and Aaron Sandilands firing, Fremantle has a best that can trouble most. Its worst can still be appalling, however. Big challenge looms this week against Melbourne at home, where there'll be more testing assignments against Adelaide, St Kilda and fierce local rival the Eagles.
RUN HOME: Melb (S), Carl (TD), Haw (S), Adel (AAMI), StK (S), WC (S), Port A (S).
Predicted finish: 12-10, 8th
GEELONG
A pre-season premiership and two strong opening wins were the calm before a very sizeable storm of seven losses from the next eight, the Cats left chasing tail ever since. Continued injuries to key players certainly haven't helped, and there's been a partial recovery since most of that group returned, but even yesterday's home win over Port Adelaide did little to convince that Geelong is anywhere near the flag threat it genuinely appeared back in March. Too much work to do to make it now, with too little time.
RUN HOME: W Bull (TD), Kang (Manuka), BL (G), StK (TD), Syd (SS), Melb (SS), Haw (TD).
Predicted finish: 10-12, 10th
HAWTHORN
Raised expectations with four wins from its first five games, hopes doused emphatically by nine losses out its next 10. The young Hawks haven't come on like they might have, but the past month has been a lot more encouraging, and Jordan Lewis, Jarryd Roughead and lately, Lance "Buddy" Franklin all have taken significant steps forward. There's some very winnable games in the last few rounds, and eight or nine wins wouldn't be too bad a result, given the extent of the Hawks' mid-season slump.
RUN HOME: BL (G), Coll (MCG), Frem (S), Carl (MCG), Ess (TD), Kang (AU), Geel (TD).
Predicted finish: 8-14, 12th
KANGAROOS
Very ordinary effort from a side that finished last season's home-and-away rounds in fifth spot. A good win to start against Port Adelaide was followed by nine losses from the next 10 games. Saturday night's wasteful effort against the Brisbane Lions was particularly disappointing. Youngsters in Hamish McIntosh, Josh Gibson, Joel Perry, Ben Schwarze and Andrew Swallow have been given a chance, but there's still an unhealthy reliance on the older brigade to carry the Roos.
RUN HOME: Adel (AAMI), Geel (Manuka), Port A (TD), WC (S), Melb (MCG), Haw (AU), Coll (MCG).
Predicted finish: 6-16, 14th
MELBOURNE
The early-season "crisis" calls, not to mention those for Neale Daniher's head, look pretty silly now, the Demons having won 11 of their last 12. Adding a harder edge to an already skilful, running profile and a potent forward set-up has been the key, Melbourne leading the competition for tackles. There's a tough little finish to the home-and-away season in store, Geelong and Adelaide both away, but the Demons look likely to joust with West Coast for the all-important second spot on the table.
RUN HOME: Frem (S), W Bull (MCG), Carl (TD), Syd (MCG), Kang (MCG), Geel (SS), Adel (AAMI).
Predicted finish: 16-6, 3rd
PORT ADELAIDE
Six losses in the first eight rounds put a pretty effective line through the Power's hopes of achieving anything substantial in 2006, though there's been some pluses for the future in the fortunes of youngsters Steven Salopek, Danyle Pearce, Brad Symes and Jacob Surjan. Might not have to go through as much pain as appeared the case at stages earlier this year, but the rest of this season is little more than preparation for 2007.
RUN HOME: StK (Aurora), Syd (AAMI), Kang (TD), W Bull (Marrara), Coll (AAMI), Adel (AAMI), Frem (S).
Predicted finish: 7-15, 13th
RICHMOND
Two absolute beltings early on at the hands of the Western Bulldogs and Sydney have left Richmond with a very poor percentage that could prove very costly, but the gains for the Tigers in 2006 have been substantial. Ruckman Troy Simmonds and forward Kayne Pettifer have been two of the AFL's most improved, Patrick Bowden has been a more-than-handy acquisition, and Andrew Raines, Dean Polo and Nathan Foley have been revelations. Next three weeks against Sydney, St Kilda and the Bulldogs will make or break finals hopes.
RUN HOME: Syd (SCG), StK (MCG), W Bull (MCG), BL (TD), Carl (TD), Ess (MCG), WC (MCG).
Predicted finish:11-11, 9th
ST KILDA
Injuries to key players Aaron Hamill, Justin Koschitzke and Lenny Hayes have been cruel, and a factor in a frustrating inconsistency by a side freely tipped for the premiership pre-season. The upside has been a significant tightening of its defensive qualities, Sam Fisher and Max Hudghton outstanding in the key positions, and Jason Gram a vastly improved rebounding runner. Four wins from the last five have steadied the Saints' ship, with a top-four finish still very much on the cards.
RUN HOME: Port A (Aurora), Rich (MCG), WC (TD), Geel (TD), Frem (S), W Bull (TD), BL (G).
Predicted finish: 15-7, 4th
SYDNEY SWANS
Slow start followed by a purple patch of six straight wins, but the Swans have hit troubled waters again, losing four of their past five. Have looked more potent up forward at times, but might also have lost just a little of that midfield steel so central to their 2005 triumph, and three losses by less than a goal, including Saturday night's classic against West Coast, could end up proving very costly in terms of finals positioning. Successive away games against Melbourne and Geelong will be the key to their likely finish.
RUN HOME: Rich (SCG), Port A (AAMI), Ess (SCG), Melb (MCG), Geel (SS), BL (TS), Carl (SCG).
Predicted finish: 13-9, 7th
WEST COAST
The Eagles haven't been at anything like their peak for at least six games now, but have still managed to win four of them. The midfield class of Chris Judd, Ben Cousins, Daniel Kerr and co is a perennial huge advantage. Defender David Wirrpanda and "swingman" Adam Hunter have been superb, and Adam Selwood a handy plus, but it's the still questionable capacity of key forwards Quinten Lynch and Ashley Hansen to kick enough goals that is the key, along with a top-two finish likely to be determined by games against Adelaide and St Kilda (away) in the next few weeks.
RUN HOME: Coll (TD), Adel (S), StK (TD), Kang (S), BL (G), Frem (S), Rich (MCG).
Predicted finish: 17-5, 2nd
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Have stood tall metaphorically while losing just about every tall on their list at some stage. Rodney Eade's brilliantly marshalled list is full of run and utilises its skilled delivery to its maximum. Will stretch any team at ground level, but can be stretched itself against those with strong key forwards. Top-four finish still a distinct possibility, likely to be determined by the clashes with Adelaide and St Kilda, to whom they lost first time this season, in rounds 21 and 22.
RUN HOME: Geel (TD), Melb (MCG), Rich (MCG), Port A (Marrara), Adel (MCG), St K (TD), Ess (TD).
Predicted finish: 15-7, 5th
