Davies-Uniake vs P Dow vs Raynor vs A Brayshaw

[susurrar]

ldu looks great. he played more game time on the weekend, which was good to see. hes a really nice looking player. needs some luck with injury.

is dow really as bad as it seems? he was the one i wanted in this draft (thought ldu would be gone by our pick).

 

[Pykie]

Right now, I think it's clearly Brayshaw>>Rayner>>>>>LDU>>Dow

With the caveat that it's too early to completely right 'em off: I really haven't seen anything to suggest that LDU and Dow (but Dow in particular) will ever be worthy of their high draft picks or even better than solid players, though in fairness it doesn't seem to be a particularly strong top 10 in any case. LDU starting to get more of the footy at least, but he seems to butcher it a lot and lacks pace. Rayner has a heap of talent and can see him being the game-breaker type and probably the best of the 4 once he stops disappearing in games for large periods. Really rate Andrew Brayshaw - reminds me of a Walsh type who you can set your watch to every week.

Ok, so you haven’t seen any of LDU at all?

The one thing he doesn’t lack is pace around the contest, his first few steps are explosive.

He gets separation from congestion with absolute ease.

 

[Suitcase]

Against the Suns Rayner gave us a little taste of what's to come. Was a wrecking ball around the contest, super creative with the footy, took contested marks and kicked goals. His impact per possession ratio was off the show. Featured in coaches votes from only 12 touches. When he starts getting the footy 20 times a game, look out!

 

[Suitcase]

If I had to pick a player out of LDU and Brayshaw to have at my club I'd pick LDU.
He has that Judd-like ability to break out of a stoppage with his athleticism. With more games and more confidence he's going to be a ripper. Brayshaw is a very solid player already and does everything to a high standard but he doesn't have a trait that sticks out as elite.

 

[wal]

Poll is up, who do you think will have the better year out of the 4?

Brayshaw easily.

 

[Bigeasy]

Game to see 3 of the 4 play.

 

[M Malice]

Against the Suns Rayner gave us a little taste of what's to come. Was a wrecking ball around the contest, super creative with the footy, took contested marks and kicked goals. His impact per possession ratio was off the show. Featured in coaches votes from only 12 touches. When he starts getting the footy 20 times a game, look out!

Couldn't agree more, Rayner has been a slow build and IMO will be an absolute beast in a year or 2, no regrets whatsoever that we took him at pick 1.

 

[Unique Name]

Considering LDU was meant to be the most 'ready-to-go' draftee he still seems a fair way off. A few nice moments yesterday sandwiched between a whole lot of blind kicks, hospital handballs, zero pressure and poor defensive running.

His fitness is clearly a mile off which he can fix now that he's hopefully past his injuries.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Against the Suns Rayner gave us a little taste of what's to come. Was a wrecking ball around the contest, super creative with the footy, took contested marks and kicked goals. His impact per possession ratio was off the show. Featured in coaches votes from only 12 touches. When he starts getting the footy 20 times a game, look out!

A 20 possession game from Rayner is a scary thought for the opposition. Just starting to tear games apart, will be a superstar when he peaks

 

[Rimmer]

None of them has made their mark yet, none of them you could confidently say with play 150 games. I am sure a few will but the jury is out for now.

None of them could get into Richmond's current 22.

 

[gungho]

None of them has made their mark yet, none of them you could confidently say with play 150 games. I am sure a few will but the jury is out for now.

None of them could get into Richmond's current 22.

Sorry mate but your kidding yourself. Dow would be the only guy potentially not picked. You trying to tell me that Dimma Hardwick would pick Mcintosh or Castagna before any of the other 3? Cerra and Brayshaw finished equal third in the best and fairest and the other guy is a number 1 draft pick.

 

[Mudman85]

None of them has made their mark yet, none of them you could confidently say with play 150 games. I am sure a few will but the jury is out for now.

None of them could get into Richmond's current 22.

Brayshaw will play 250

 

[Snake_Baker]

He's ready now.

 

[juss]

Against the Suns Rayner gave us a little taste of what's to come. Was a wrecking ball around the contest, super creative with the footy, took contested marks and kicked goals. His impact per possession ratio was off the show. Featured in coaches votes from only 12 touches. When he starts getting the footy 20 times a game, look out!

I would be a little concerned with Rayner's disposal average because that limits his impact on games.
History suggests by a players third year and after 50 odd games are pretty adept at finding the footy at that point if they are going to become that gun midfielder expected, if we use some comparable top 20 picks of the big power mid/forwards in their early years and their disposal averages:

Cripps 26.9 third year
Martin >20 average every year since debut
Bontempelli 24.4 third year
Fyfe 25.1 second year
Judd 21.8 third year
Petracca 20.2 third year
Smith 21.2 second year
Wines 24.4 second year
De Goey 18.9 third year (probably in the boat of hasn't come on)

Rayner has gone 13.5, then under 10 touches in his third and second year. Not saying he can't improve, but it doesn't bode well he's going to become a regular 20+ possession player. The one comparison is Dangerfield who in fairness took a few years to start winning consistent ball, but the data suggests he's more of an exception than the rule.

Is he more of a forward long term? He hasn't been a huge goalkicker so far.

 

[Snake_Baker]

You have to give a little latitude for HF vs midfield numbers mate.

HFF is arguably the hardest position to play in the 2020's AFL. It's a very thankless gig.

 

[juss]

You have to give a little latitude for HF vs midfield numbers mate.

HFF is arguably the hardest position to play in the 2020's AFL. It's a very thankless gig.

Sure, which is why I asked is he more of a forward than a mid?

FWIW those other guys also spent time forward during those formative years, but the numbers suggest Raynor isn't tracking as being a ball winning midfielder.

 

[bungalow_bill]

The comparison to Dangerfield is an interesting one, except Rayner is probably a better kick. Plays mostly forward with stints on ball - probably 70/30 but that's just a guess.

 

[The Warlord]

Has Rayner put on size this preseason?

 

[cotter101]

Has Rayner put on size this preseason?

Looking very fit and primed for a big season.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Sorry mate but your kidding yourself. Dow would be the only guy potentially not picked. You trying to tell me that Dimma Hardwick would pick Mcintosh or Castagna before any of the other 3? Cerra and Brayshaw finished equal third in the best and fairest and the other guy is a number 1 draft pick.

Macca is like 6'3. Kicks key goals at big times. Is a natural defensive wing. Richmond most fit player. Etc.

Him and George are not the most talented but their roles are important to the teams style.

I wouldn't be surprised if that mob couldn't currently get a game. That said brayshaw is well rounded and Rayner's xfactor is appealing.

Hardwick is big on caddy but hasn't got a spot for him in the side

 

[Snake_Baker]

Get ready

 

[La Dispute]

Get ready

Every single opposition player has done that to North at some point in time

 

[Snake_Baker]

Every single opposition player has done that to North at some point in time

LOL, that's ballsy coming from you.

 

[the big lebowski]

Every single opposition player has done that to North at some point in time

Dow?

 

[KissKiss]

Sure, which is why I asked is he more of a forward than a mid?

FWIW those other guys also spent time forward during those formative years, but the numbers suggest Raynor isn't tracking as being a ball winning midfielder.

He has very much only played as a forward so far - with maybe a couple of minutes each quarter on ball (maybe 1-2 centre bounces). When there he has looked threatening but as you point out through stats has never shown he can get big numbers.

Training reports this year suggests he is about to get a big boost to his midfield time this year - so I'd suggest its make-or-break time (maybe a little strong wording) for his breakout as a mid. If he doesnt make that he can still be a very dangerous Forward or HFF. But definitely needs to lift his numbers or goals soon to justify his draft position