Draft Expert Davo-27's 2022 u18 Draft Thread

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Davo-27

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Probably best to hold fire on those 3. All had significant interruptions to their year last year, particularly Draper, who had essentially no preseason.

All taken with late picks too, so not sure why shots are being fired. It’s not like we selected them with first rounders like is being talked about with Ryan (skeptical about this too).
In his draft year Arlo Draper was being pushed by a few as a 1st rounder and some even tried pushing for Murley in the 1st round, Harrison was always a late Pick I guess.

But I'm not writing them off, they could be decent squad players.
 
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KM likes to think he knows better than the recruiters.

Icy pole licker.
He's far from the worst ego wise, Pie 4 Life keeps calling himself "The messiah of draft watching"

At least most of us keep our ego in private
 

weltschmerz

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KM likes to think he knows better than the recruiters.

Icy pole licker.
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He's far from the worst ego wise, Pie 4 Life keeps calling himself "The messiah of draft watching"

At least most of us keep our ego in private
That title is far too clunky, however if you're staring a cult following, I wouldn't be opposed to it.
 

weltschmerz

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you realise every single recruiting manager has made the same mistakes?

You guys took Christian Howard over Nat Fyfe. And that's with a team of full time recruiters. So having a go at a guy who is doing it solo with 5% of the access is a low blow.

Between the random-ass obsession with state league battlers as the solution to every team's problems, the MS Word background in all his videos, and the NFT advice channel, I'll continue to laugh until further notice.
 

briztoon

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you realise every single recruiting manager has made the same mistakes?

You guys took Christian Howard over Nat Fyfe. And that's with a team of full time recruiters. So having a go at a guy who is doing it solo with 5% of the access is a low blow.
He has publicly said he is better than full time recruiters.

I have no problem with people talking themselves up, if they’ve actually achieved something.

Knightmare’s greatest achievement was making a name for himself on BigFooty.
 
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He has publicly said he is better than full time recruiters.

I have no problem with people talking themselves up, if they’ve actually achieved something.

Knightmare’s greatest achievement was making a name for himself on BigFooty.
Knocking on a young guy for doing something that he loves, for no money, is a low act. Not to mention the fact that recruiting is an opinion based business. Having a crack at a guy for posting on Bigfooty, whilst you're also on Bigfooty is flawed logic. He watches more footy than you, so he knows more than you. That's a fact.

If you're going to point out his misses than you've got to weigh up the misses of all of the recruiting teams of the clubs. Basically 50% of the first round picks don't make it as afl players.
 
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Dockeroo

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Knocking on a young guy for doing something that he loves, for no money, is a low act. Not to mention the fact that recruiting is an opinion based business. Having a crack at a guy for posting on Bigfooty, whilst you're also on Bigfooty is flawed logic. He watches more footy than you, so he knows more than you. That's a fact.

If you're going to point out his misses than you've got to weigh up the misses of all of the recruiting teams of the clubs. Basically 50% of the first round picks don't make it as afl players.
Kind of agree with this. Knightmare certainly had a significant ego but those are the types that you are drawn to as a casual poster. I admired the way he stuck his neck out hard on several youngsters ability early on in their careers.
He had some absolute shocker calls like Jackson Callow at pick 8 but deserves credit equally for picking out the likes of Jack Ginnivan from the rookie draft as a guy who should have been drafted much earlier than he was. He was 100% correct there.
 

Davo-27

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Everyone in the draft watchers space makes mistakes, no one is at 100%, but I think we all strive to get close, Knightmare, RMC, Cal, the Hun, myself and others I would say are in the 90s percentile which I think is a good resource for people, picking out the odd error is bad form when people do great work sifting through hundreds of players each year, watching approx 100 games or more of these juniors and getting it approx 95% right, I think more respect should be shown to people who get off their ass do the work, answer the inane questions and have the balls to make calls, unlike most who are scared to make decisions, who copy others work, then bitch and whine, rant over :D
 
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Everyone in the draft watchers space makes mistakes, no one is at 100%, but I think we all strive to get close, Knightmare, RMC, Cal, the Hun, myself and others I would say are in the 90s percentile which I think is a good resource for people, picking out the odd error is bad form when people do great work sifting through hundreds of players each year, watching approx 100 games or more of these juniors and getting it approx 95% right, I think more respect should be shown to people who get off their ass do the work, answer the inane questions and have the balls to make calls, unlike most who are scared to make decisions, who copy others work, then bitch and whine, rant over :D
And most of you guys do it for little (knightmare) or no money? (Davo, RMC, Etc.).

Rather you do it for the love of the development side of the game and maybe a little internet recognition all while opening yourselves up for ridicule from others who probably don't put in 10% of the time that you guys do.

100% appreciation from me for you guys/gals/thems and I don't care if you are correct or incorrect I just love the information you provide.
 
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Yup, Ed Richards is my preferred choice at 18 if available.

I posted this elsewhere in a draft discussion.

I flip flop continually about Rayner's ceiling. Apart from the champs, he did **** all this year, and remember he copped a fair bit of criticism about mailing in his late school boy games. He has the physical attributes and skills, just hasn't put it together consistently enough. And if the endurance doesn't come, he won't be a game winner.

I believe Dow has the tools to be a star, he's doesn't have as a mature body as LDU and Rayner and will take a couple of years to develop in a system, but believe he might turn out the best from the draft.

I'm confident LDU will be the second best player from this draft. Nor would I be worried about his drive. Nor would I be worried about his potential to reach his ceiling. He's the type of kid I could genuinely see Hodge mentoring, not as a vocal leader like Brayshaw is touted to be, but a "do what it takes on the field" to lead a team through how you play.

In a normal draft, LDU would be a mid top 10 draft pick, and Dow would be a top 10 to 12 pick, like Oliver Florent last year. Brayshaw would be a Berry pick in the mid teens. But there are no gun KPP's, or Callum Mills or Clayton Oliver types, or Darcy Parish or Hugh McCluggage types. Just a lesser Christian Petracca type.

Brayshaw on the other hand, could be Hodge clone on the field. Honestly, in
briztoon haha, it's amazing what happens when someone keeps you accountable. Don't throw stones when you live in a glass house.

All the boys that spend time researching the drafts like Davo and Knightmare etc. should be appreciated and not criticised. They're doing it for us at the end of the day.

No gun kpp? I'd say Naughton goes alright! lol. Not to mention Starcevich, Balta or All-Australian Sam Taylor.LOL
 

gungho

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View attachment 1559200

Quaynor would go top 10 in a re-draft, and the top 10 of that draft is some elite company to be in.
Far out, I know draft experts can make mistakes but this one is actually pretty bad from Nightmare. Putting aside the misread on Quaynor, the most shocking thing is he's rating a guy (Gown) as a potential pick 13 (When Gown was picked at 60 and was delisted before playing a game). Just not quite sure you can be considered an expert and be this far off the mark.
 
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Far out, I know draft experts can make mistakes but this one is actually pretty bad from Nightmare. Putting aside the misread on Quaynor, the most shocking thing is he's rating a guy (Gown) as a potential pick 13 (When Gown was picked at 60 and was delisted before playing a game). Just not quite sure you can be considered an expert and be this far off the mark.
huh? strange take my you. so melbourne took Toumpas at pick 4. so they aren't experts? freo took Liam Henry at pick 9, Ryley Dunn & Marcus Drum at pick 10, Michael Apeness at 17 etc. so they aren't experts? Carlton took Dow at 3 so they aren't experts? Literally every club has bad misses. So you either have a personal agenda against Nightmare or you just don't know the draft all that well.
 

briztoon

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briztoon haha, it's amazing what happens when someone keeps you accountable. Don't throw stones when you live in a glass house.

All the boys that spend time researching the drafts like Davo and Knightmare etc. should be appreciated and not criticised. They're doing it for us at the end of the day.

No gun kpp? I'd say Naughton goes alright! lol. Not to mention Starcevich, Balta or All-Australian Sam Taylor.LOL
A couple of points.

1. I don’t claim to be a draft expert or official draft watcher.

The most I watch are the National Championship games, any Lions academy games that are streamed and the odd QAFL game that features one or more of our academy kids.

I lean/borrow heavily on other peoples work, especially the Rookie Me writers.

I have repeatedly said that both on this page, and on the Lions page. I’m very much open about my non expertise here.

I just like following the draft and talking about the kids, particularly as it relates to the Lions.


2. Knightmare as an “expert” has been caught out giving descriptions about kids he has not watched, without clearly stating as much.

He has been caught out and called out by other draft watchers.

You might have missed out on the sh!t that went down here in 2020.

3. Knightmare claims not to read other peoples work. But it’s clear as day that he does, when he uses specific descriptions lifted from other peoples work. He lifted his description of Blake Coleman directly from me. And the description was one I had explained to me in private, and then used on the board. Don’t deny using someone else’s work, when it’s right there.
 
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