Draft 2011 - Board Q&A

[Quigley]

Okay a while ago POBT asked about on the private board for questions on the upcoming draft for me to have a crack at answering. He has sent me the questions below and I will attempt to get through them a couple a day over the next week. It will be in no particularly order and just what I feel like doing at the time.

Happy to field others as we go but I will make a concerted effort to make sure I answer these ones in particular.

Cheers

1. You’ve said Wingard is the best small forward in the draft this year. Who would you rate on the next tier? Do you think we’ll look to recruit one via the national or rookie draft?

2. Interested in your opinion of Jackson Paine from Sandringham Dragons.
I have only seen his highlights and the TAC GF. Impressed with his GF game - spent time at either end of the ground (and seemed competent at both).

3. Where would you peg Newell as a draftee this year if he wasn’t already committed to the Lions?

4. Which players do you believe will slide on draft day?

5. How do you compare Patton to the last few key forwards drafted early (at the same stage of their careers) – Day, Watts, etc?

6. Based on your knowledge, do you think the NSW or the QLD clubs are going to be best served by the new academy system?

7. Manson is clearly one of the wildcard players of this year’s draft. Are there any others who might shape the rest of the draft?

8. You love the players from the smaller footballing states. Who is your favourite division 2 player this year? Is there one who you think is being underrated on BigFooty?

9. The TAC Grand Final normally elevates a few blokes in the draft rankings. Did anyone impress you in that game that you hadn’t really rated before?

10. I reckon Brad Hill is going to be a big surprise on draft day. Recruiters will love the athleticism and hope to unlock the footballer. Do you agree or do you think he is athlete only?

11. If we took 2 KPPs with the first two picks, who are the midfielders who you’d like us to look at with pick 30? Similarly, if we took 2 midfielders, which KPP would you want us to take at 30?

12. Yagmoor v Zorko – who would you have taken for the Lions and why?

13. How much weight do you put on a player’s performance after the under 18 champs? Do you think that TAC Cup form can be a bit misleading when you consider that players from other States are generally playing seniors/reserves State level footy?

 

[Quigley]

1. You’ve said Wingard is the best small forward in the draft this year. Who would you rate on the next tier? Do you think we’ll look to recruit one via the national or rookie draft?

We already picked up Zorko who will play some time up forward I would expect. The only way I see us going with a small forward in the ND is if we go with two KPs with our first two picks. In that situation I think there could be an intriguing SF or two available. In the rookie draft I could easily see us going with a prospect as we certainly still have a need in that area.

Of the next tier of small forwards I would go with:

Crozier - skinny and inconsistent but with a lot of talent. I would compare him to Yarren with the way he plays. 15-30

Murray Newman - a bit of a BF love in with him but I have actually jumped on board. Think of Nahas. Slight, quick and elusive he is also tough and can win his own ball. 20-35.

Daniel Markworth - I am not on this bandwagon but he seems popular. Finished the year strongly, ran a 2.87 in the Combine. Smart kid a year older than the others and has a bit of the Steve Johnson's about him. There are quite a few holes in his game that are being papered over atm though. 18-30

Haiden Schloithe - okay he is probably another tier down but I like this kid a lot and thought I would mention him. Ran a 2.80 at State Screening, WAFL Colt player of the year, averaged 7.7 tackles a game, good goal sense, strong guy. His endurance and kicking need a bit of work but he is improving at a great rate of knots and stepped up to reserves and then WAFL well.

Then there are a few of the midfielders who will start their careers up fwd.

D Smith - tenacious type with great top end speed. Bit of the small side though and his lack of polish with his disposals is often overlooked. Can find the ball though and will work hard. Think of a combination of Dalhaus and Ballantyne. 15-30

Shane Nelson - outside / in ball magnet with some admirers as a fwd (not me really although he will probably start there). Elite speed (2.87) and he won the kicking test at Combine although I think that is a little deceiving. Under pressure his kicking is nowhere near as good. He has good endurance as well which will allow him to use his speed to good effect up forward. I think he could start his career a bit like Blair for Collingwood. 20-40

 

[Quigley]

5. How do you compare Patton to the last few key forwards drafted early (at the same stage of their careers) – Day, Watts, etc?

Patton is a bit of a different kettle of fish to what we have seen over the last few years. Guys that have gone high recently have been vary athletic, mobile CHF types who have no necessarily dominated on the scoreboard.

Whilst not terrible none of Day, Lynch, Hurley or Watts ever really dominated kicking regular big bags. Watts in particular was a phenominal athlete more than he was a great footballer. Day and Hurley are two dangerous forwards but neither have really dominated consistently and there are a lot of people who question whether their best position is in the backline. Lynch is a mobile big man who is like Clark at his best.

Patton on the other hand is a pure lead up full forward. He is a powerfully built man who operates inside the forward 50. He will occasionally get up the wing but mostly he operates closer to goal. He is smarter on the lead than the others mentioned and more powerful. Butcher was taken in the top ten a couple of years ago and he is a similar type of lead up forward although more slightly built and a much poorer shot for goal.

The closest comparison over the last few years as far as style goes I think is Griffiths who was taken by Richmond. Griffiths has had a world of injury issues and has not come on as much as I thought he might but he is still young and played a lot like Patton as a junior. I watched Griffiths pick up 5 goals against Qld and he played very much like Patton. Smart leads, good hands, too big to get around to spoil and a very good kick for goal when he gets the chance.

Patton is a consistent goal kicker who keeps working throughout games. He is not a super athlete but he has reasonable pace. He has very good length on his kicking and when he sticks to his knitting and doesn't try to be cute he is a good shot for goal. He has been shut down a few times this year especially toward the end of the year but he picked up a lot of bags of 4 and 5 goals and a good day mostly was when he only finished with 2 or 3.

He is not a certainty to succeed at AFL level as he can be troubled by guys who are as big and quick as he is. Until Hartley died in the last quarter he was dominating Patton at the Champs and Patton had no answers. Hartley was able to go step for step with Patton and spoil pretty confortably. Credit to Patton he did keep working and got him in the last when Hartley blew up.

 

[Quigley]

6. Based on your knowledge, do you think the NSW or the QLD clubs are going to be best served by the new academy system?

I expect that the Qld teams will be best served by the new academies. Qld has consistently produced more draft talent than NSW. Now this may change in the future but even years where NSW have been winning the Div 2 title and Qld have been nowhere, Qld have had more draftees.

I also think there has been a real lack of development of the Qld talent between the ages of 16 and 18 and the academies should help to address that and produce better players as a result. Qld have consistently won the under 16 Champs over recent years but for a number of reasons have gone very poorly at under 18 level. A lot of the better Qld players have not shown the development you would have expected between under 16 and 18 level.

Personally I think the academies are a boon for both the NSW and Qld teams but I expect the Qld academies to produce more talent because there is more talent playing the game in Qld and the talent search programs are better.

 

[Eons]

Not relating to the draft just a personal question Quigs.

Are you a recruiter or just a fanatic? Just wondering why you have so much information year after year on draftess.

 

[Quigley]

10. I reckon Brad Hill is going to be a big surprise on draft day. Recruiters will love the athleticism and hope to unlock the footballer. Do you agree or do you think he is athlete only?

First up I would say if you wanted a pure athlete this year you would probably go with Kane Mitchell who did State Screening. He beat Hill in both the beep and the sprint.

Still Hill was hugely impressive at Combine and you would have to think he turned the heads of a few coaches who would not be as up on him as the recruitment staff. As a player though he is a lot less impressive.

He needs a bell in the ball to find it and is very outside and does not win his own ball. He has a bit of a reputation for being soft and not being willing to listen and work on what he needs to do to improve his game. His kicking is pretty good but not as good as his brother. Both have played a bit of run with in their time to allow them to be dragged to the ball. Like his brother he is very light and needs to build up a lot although he is never likely to be a powerfully built guy.

There is a world of physical talent there but not much of a football brain. He will get picked based on his physical talents but it will be down the list because of his limited ability to actually play the game. He could develop into a good player if he learns and is plays the right way. He is pretty good around goal and can do the freakish. If he worked on his tackling he could be a decent small forward.

 

[Quigley]

Not relating to the draft just a personal question Quigs.

Are you a recruiter or just a fanatic? Just wondering why you have so much information year after year on draftess.

Purely an enthusiastic amateur. Recruitment doesn't pay enough for my wife to be at all enthused about me being away most weekends during the year.

 

[Eons]

Purely an enthusiastic amateur. Recruitment doesn't pay enough for my wife to be at all enthused about me being away most weekends during the year.

It's such an important role in a footy club I would have thought they'd at least be on 150k.

Keep up the good work mate love reading all your write ups.

 

[Quigley]

3. Where would you peg Newell as a draftee this year if he wasn’t already committed to the Lions?

Its really hard to say. He is probably at his best in a tagging role and usually teams do not pay much if anything for taggers.

On the other side of the coin he was clearly the best Qld player over the games he played and probably would have won the Qld player of the Champs if he were not playing ressies for the Lions whilst a couple of those were on. The Qld player of the Champs is usually picked up and there is enough to like with Newell regarding athleticism and ball winning ability to suggest that he would have been taken somewhere. Looking at his 3km time for the Lions its also fair to assume he would have been in the first few in the endurance testing if he had gone to Combine and again if you can win the beep and 3km and have some idea about how to play the game you have a good chance of being picked up.

So I am thinking third round on might have been the go for Newell if not for his commitment to the Lions.

 

[Quigley]

12. Yagmoor v Zorko – who would you have taken for the Lions and why?

Zorko fits our needs better I think especially in the short term.

Yagmoor is the better kick of the two by a reasonable margin and could end up a dangerous kick. He does however need to lift the rest of his game a lot. He is an outside in player who moves nicely over the ground and has a reasonable burst of pace but he does need to lift his endurance a lot. He spends a lot of time walking at the moment and there was times when I questioned his heart a bit. He did not gut run very much at all and for one of the leaders of the Qld team he really didn't do much to lift the team when they needed it.

Zorko on the other hand has come up the hard way. It has taken him a while to realise the work he needed to do to get picked up but the penny eventually dropped. I loved the way he played in the interstate game against the WAFL this year and particularly how he lead the Qlders back to almost steal the game. He is much the more dangerous around goal than Yagmoor and can legitimately play as a small forward and as a midfielder. He is much the better ball winner than Yagmoor and is good in the contest. He is also prepared to work defensively and play football the way it is played at AFL level.

Zorko will come in and play from day one and knows what he has to do physically to get the most out of himself. He can play up forward which is a position of need and swap with Banfield between the midfield and up forward.

Yagmoor I am not sure is much if any better than other options we have for wing spots like Polec, O'Brien, Bewick, Hanley, Banfield etc and it would be a while before he is physically ready to go.

 

[thoselionslads]

I'm backing the Collingwood development program in with Yagamoor. They were thrilled to get him the way they did. I know they (or at least one QLD scout for Collingwood) think Yagamoor's strengths are worthy of first round consideration and they feel very confident they can develop the weaknesses in his game (that you mentioned Quigs).

 

[POBT]

First up I would say if you wanted a pure athlete this year you would probably go with Kane Mitchell who did State Screening. He beat Hill in both the beep and the sprint.

Is Mitchell the long haired bloke from WA? I saw him in the Foxtel Cup as well as in the State game. Pretty handy footballer. Doesn't always use it perfectly but has that Priddis "gets the job done" type of disposal - not pretty but pretty effective.

 

[POBT]

Quigs, can I add another question? Who do you think got the better crop of 17yos - Gold Coast or GWS?

 

[Quigley]

Is Mitchell the long haired bloke from WA? I saw him in the Foxtel Cup as well as in the State game. Pretty handy footballer. Doesn't always use it perfectly but has that Priddis "gets the job done" type of disposal - not pretty but pretty effective.

I think that's him.

 

[Quigley]

Quigs, can I add another question? Who do you think got the better crop of 17yos - Gold Coast or GWS?

GWS I think although we'll probably have a better idea after next year when get to see them play. GC didn't get a lot out of their crop this year apart really. Smith (who I am counting although not technically one of their 12) looks fantastic, McKenzie is a weapon and Matera I think will be a great little player. Nicholls is the other who looks like he has real potential. Toy and Jolly two big disappointments for me and the rest pretty invisible.

For GWS they didn't take any rucks but the mids look a fair bit better than what GC picks up. Shiel should be a great player. Bugg and Darley I think should also play a lot next year and Hampton looks like the next big indig star in the making. Golds and Treloar are another two who I liked as juniors who I am keen to have a look at next year. In the talls Cameron is better than any of the GC key position group and Hombsch apparently did pretty well as well (although I don't recall him). They didn't really get any rucks though. GWS did however lose 3 or 4 to the go home syndrome and I know they are worried about that becoming a trend already.

 

[POBT]

GWS I think although we'll probably have a better idea after next year when get to see them play. GC didn't get a lot out of their crop this year apart really. Smith (who I am counting although not technically one of their 12) looks fantastic, McKenzie is a weapon and Matera I think will be a great little player. Nicholls is the other who looks like he has real potential. Toy and Jolly two big disappointments for me and the rest pretty invisible.

For GWS they didn't take any rucks but the mids look a fair bit better than what GC picks up. Shiel should be a great player. Bugg and Darley I think should also play a lot next year and Hampton looks like the next big indig star in the making. Golds and Treloar are another two who I liked as juniors who I am keen to have a look at next year. In the talls Cameron is better than any of the GC key position group and Hombsch apparently did pretty well as well (although I don't recall him). They didn't really get any rucks though. GWS did however lose 3 or 4 to the go home syndrome and I know they are worried about that becoming a trend already.

Yeah, my gut feel is that GWS should get up to half a dozen senior footballers out of their picks, even with the departures. It looks likely that GC will have about 4 at best.

 

[Quigley]

7. Manson is clearly one of the wildcard players of this year’s draft. Are there any others who might shape the rest of the draft?

Murdoch I think is one guy about whom word is getting out. I think he could go a lot earlier than most thought a week or two ago. I think quite a few teams were sitting on their hats hoping he was getting overlooked. Schloithe and Newman are two pacey guys who could go anywhere on the day.

As far as wildcards I think of guys who could start a run on those types of players. If you need a ruck you probably want to act as soon as the second ruck is taken. There aren’t that many around so if suddenly Bolger or Downie go you would want to get in quick and get another. That could then cascade down to a run on the second ruck / KP guys. So Downie I see as one of the wildcards. If Brisbane take Longer I think Downie could go at 14 and that would throw quite a few out of what they were intending to do.

Similarly with tall defenders. Once Frost goes you could then see a run on the second tier of KPDers by teams not wanting to miss out. There are quite a few in need of help down back but would be hoping for a bit of a bargain. Once one of Frost, Talia or Schade go I think there could be a bit of a run that could flow into the next tier of tall defenders as well like Bosley, Bussey and Blee.

There is also a bit of an unknown with regards the mature guys. How high will someone go to grab one. There are a few like Spurr, Blee, and Horsley who should be taken but again teams will want to wait if they can. Once one goes others are going to start to get nervous about their own targets.

 

[Quigley]

4. Which players do you believe will slide on draft day?

Okay everyone is on Grigg as a slider so nothing out of the box there. Similarly with Kavanagh who seems to be doing his best to get to 19 and Essendon who he has supported.

Others who I could easily see falling:

McKenzie – speed a definite issue, not great endurance. Kicking is pretty good but a bit overrated.

Manson – massive risk that teams will decide they would rather not take.

Dobosz – measured short and his athletics were not great.

Haynes – if he gets past Brisbane and GWS I could see him dropping well into the 20s. I am not seeing the love personally and think he is a danger to drop.

Sumner – won’t get out of the teens no matter what but not out of the question that teams could pass on the slight outside guy.

Markworth – been talked up a lot in the media but not consistent and is 19 already. Not out of the question that he could drop to the 30s.

Elton – looking like he is locked in to the Saints at 25 which is a lot lower than a lot expected of him.

 

[Quigley]

2. Interested in your opinion of Jackson Paine from Sandringham Dragons.
I have only seen his highlights and the TAC GF. Impressed with his GF game - spent time at either end of the ground (and seemed competent at both).

Paine is a good solid worker particularly up forward but I just think he lacks a little in the talent department. Stick him up forward and he will lead for you, crash packs and provide good defensive pressure but I would not expect many goals against AFL quality defenders. I think he does not lead to great spots and will struggle to get separation. His set shot is solid but he lacks a bit of confidence and does not have a true forwards killer instinct or desire to have the ball in his hands kicking for goal.

On skill set you would think he would be better suited down back but just seems to lack the instincts and does not seem to work nearly as hard. With all that said it’s not out of the question that he could develop these as he plays down there more. He could become a Leppa like convert and improve with more experience.

Overall I like his work rate and would give him a shot at pick 30 but I would be reluctant to take him before that (nws I game him to GWS at 14 in my mock )

 

[POBT]

If Haynes goes in the 20s, he'll be an absolute yo-yo. A few weeks ago, he was 30s/40s at best in most mocks.

If Brisbane take two mids and GWS take 2 in the 9-11 bracket (ie that Adams, Greene, Sumner and maybe Kavanagh are off the table), then I could see Richmond taking the punt on Haynes. I think Richmond need midfielders but Haynes does give you run and carry which I don't think Richmond would mind.

 

[chopperduck]

Such a much more exciting draft compared to last year, which is strange considering how many picks GWS has. Will be really interesting to see how club recruiters rate the talent this year compared to the usual BF mocks. With so many different opinions on so many players and where they should and shouldn't go come draft day, i feel just about anything could happen.

 

[dlanod]

Such a much more exciting draft compared to last year, which is strange considering how many picks GWS has.

I think that's also part of the reason it's exciting. GWS has enough picks to basically do what they want, so it's very hard to pick their selections unlike previous years where you can evaluate likely picks for clubs a lot easier.

 

[Quigley]

If Haynes goes in the 20s, he'll be an absolute yo-yo. A few weeks ago, he was 30s/40s at best in most mocks.

If Brisbane take two mids and GWS take 2 in the 9-11 bracket (ie that Adams, Greene, Sumner and maybe Kavanagh are off the table), then I could see Richmond taking the punt on Haynes. I think Richmond need midfielders but Haynes does give you run and carry which I don't think Richmond would mind.

The bloke who gave the news that Richmond were going with Conca last year has said they are going with Kersten if he is there.

 

[Quigley]

8. You love the players from the smaller footballing states. Who is your favourite division 2 player this year? Is there one who you think is being underrated on BigFooty?

Of the available guys I rate Schade the highest. He was an AA and just is a great combination of skills. I had thought he would be underrated more than he is but quite a few are coming around to him. It also sounds like teams have him in their sites as well and I will be interested to see where he goes on draft day. Were I to guess I would say he will go around the 30 mark and I would love him at the Lions to give us some real depth at the back for a change. At 196 he also offers some genuine height. With teams like Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn and St Kilda dominating the 30s and all in need of KPDs I struggle to see him getting out of the 30s.

As far as underrated on BF goes I think its hard to go past John McKenzie. He was the Div 2 medal winner this year, capt of Tasmania and is a great ball winner in the clinches. His athleticism was questioned but he ran a 15.15 in the beep and the rest of his testing was pretty good. If this kid was Victorian I think he would be getting first round talk on BF but because he is Tasmanian he has largely been forgotten. The kid is a footballer first and foremost and can run all day. If we didn’t need to go tall I would be all over him in the third round if I was the Lions.

Michael Musicka and Daniel Joseph are two other Taswegians who no-one is mentioning but who I think have a reasonable chance of being drafted. If they fall through to the rookie draft I would love us to have a crack at them.

 

[Quigley]

11. If we took 2 KPPs with the first two picks, who are the midfielders who you’d like us to look at with pick 30? Similarly, if we took 2 midfielders, which KPP would you want us to take at 30?

At 30 the small / mediums (not necessarily mids) I would consider would be:

Murray Newman – Jeff Gartlett / Nahas style forward/mid. Quick and dangerous around goal. He would give our team a different look.

Jordan Murdoch – will start up forward but eventually move onto the wing. Good long kick and absolutely elite speed (2.76 in the beep) with a fantastic burst of pace off the mark.

Mitchell Grigg – absolutely elite kick and a good inside ball winner. There are some attitude question marks which is really the only reason he should be falling as much as he looks likely to.

Schloithe – as the roughy. 2.80 quickness, strength over the ball and really knows where the goals are. He needs to build his tank but gut ran pretty well at junior level given how poorly he tested. 7.7 tackles a game playing forward and through the middle at Colts level. Could be like Banfield with better strength and goal sense although less outside game.

On talls at 30:

Schade – 196 KPD with good skills and defensive mindset. No surprise to many I would be on him.

Dobosz – if we wanted to go with a forward this would be my pick. He measured short and did not do well in the athletic testing but given his background that was always going to happen. He is a natural forward who just keeps stepping up and making defenders look stupid. I would be happy to give him a shot.

Hamling – basically a thinner and taller version of Tomlinson. Very athletic and plays like he is a midfielder. Capable of playing anywhere on the ground. Will need to be taught a KP but if he can put on some weight he has a very high ceiling. If we miss out on Tomlinson he comes right into the picture imho. He looks like a Hadley pick.

Downie – big raw ruck prospect. Not sure we would do it but if he is here he might be tempting. Looks a lot like Goldstein at the same age and if you wanted a ruck to tuck away and develop he is the one to look at in this draft I think.