List Mgmt. Draft thread - 2025 (remaining picks: 29, 34)

[Keys]

Live draft hand
R1: 1 (Duursma), 4 (CDT), 19 (Lindsay)
R2: 29, 34
RD: 1

Draft picks pre-draft
R1: 1, 2, 13
R2: 34, 41
RD: 1

List spots available
Main list: 2 (includes Duursma, CDT, Lindsay)
Cat A Rookie list: 1 (expecting Robertson, Macrae and Schoenberg to join as SSP signings)
Cat B Rookie list: 1

Draft order

Spoiler

Draft prospect video highlights (thanks to noobermensch)

Rookie Me Central 2025 Draft Guide

2025 AFL Draft Guide

online.fliphtml5.com

Matthew Clarke on Gettable 17/11

Spoiler

Cal Twomey’s Phantom Draft

Spoiler

 

[The Dodger]

Walk Sharp to the PSD

No... we should look to split pick 1 in the PSD

 

[Peptide Pig]

Out of boredom I decided to compare Twomey's last five phantom drafts versus the actual draft - top 10 picks only (as once you go deeper in the draft the variance of course can become much larger). The amateurs are amateurs, Cal Twomey as the actual AFL appointed expert should get the most scrutiny.

2020

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1	JUH	JUH
2	Thilthorpe	Thilthorpe
3	Phillips	Hollands
4	McDonald	DGB
5	Campbell	McDonald
6	DGB	Phillips
7	Hollands	Bruhn
8	Cox	Reid
9	Perkins	Campbell
10	Reid	Henry

JUH was consensus number 1 and Thilthorpe at 2. The Essendon trio at 8,9 and 10 were largely shaped by list needs, but otherwise mostly correct. Interesting that Twomey identified Henry as top 10, he slid to 17 (Collingwood) but is possibly one of the top 5 players from the 2020 COVID draft.

2021

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1	JHF	JHF
2	Darcy	Darcy
3	Callaghan	Callaghan
4	Daicos	Daicos
5	Andrew	Andrew
6	Rachele	Rachele
7	Ward	Ward
8	Amiss	Amiss
9	Gibcus	Gibcus
10	Erasmus	Johnson

Cannot do much better than that, nailed the first 9 spot on. Johnson slid to 21 but obviously still ended up at Freo. NWM was also 11 for Callum Twomey. Erasmus was projected at 12.

2022

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1	Cadman	Cadman
2	Ashcroft	Ashcroft
3	Sheezel	Sheezel
4	Wardlaw	Wardlaw
5	Tsatas	Tsatas
6	Humphrey	Humphrey
7	Mackenzie	Mackenzie
8	Clark	Clark
9	Ginbey	Ginbey
10	Philippou	Philippou

No comment. He also predicted Oliver Hollands at 11 too.

2023

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1	Reid	Reid
2	McKercher	McKercher
3	Walter	Walter
4	Duursma	Duursma
5	Watson	Watson
6	Sanders	Sanders
7	Windsor	Windsor
8	Curtin	Leake
9	Read	Read
10	Caddy	Curtin

We all knew Curtin was a slight reach for Adelaide at the time and disappointed a fair few of us here, but again mostly spot on. Caddy was pick 11 according to Twomey.

2024

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1	Lalor	Lalor
2	O'Sullivan	O'Sullivan
3	Smith	Smith
4	Draper	Draper
5	Ashcroft	Ashcroft
6	Langford	Langford
7	Smillie	Smillie
8	Travaglia	Travaglia
9	Lombard	Lombard
10	Tauru	Tauru

Again nailed the top 10. He predicted Bo Allan at 11 though - hopefully it means we had a slight bargain by paying pick 16.

2025

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1		Duursma
2		Uwland
3		CDT
4		Patterson
5		Annable
6		Robey
7		Taylor
8		Dean
9		Sharp
10		Cumming

There will be another phantom released closer to the draft but Twomey at the moment has us picking CDT with our second pick overall...anyone betting on Sharp?

Experts you say.

Cal isn't an expert.

This is in contrast to the cohort of amateur power ranking junkies who copy each other's work. I include Cal in this who just watches the odd game in Victoria.

‘Cal Twomey is amateur hour because his intel doesn’t support my bias!’

 

[FootyOutlier]

My original consensus was Duursma, Robey and Farrow.

Though if the news is true. Duursma CDT and Sharp would be just as good

 

[Peptide Pig]

I think twce13 put things very well. Selecting Robey at 2 would be some leap of faith. Duff-Tytler, I would understand, as he has been highly touted all year, showed some things in his VFL outing, and backed up with his combine performance. There's a lot of recency bias about Robey.

Fair enough. Definitely some recency bias for Robey. My point was that no one is picking Sharp at pick 2, I referred to Robey because he is next highest ranked player after WD, if we were to take a midfielder at pick 2. However it’s probably more likely we take CDT as best available and more runs on the board.

So if eagles pick sharp at pick 2, aren’t they the experts ? Or is that not how your logic works ?

If they pick Wes Walley at pick 2 I guess they are the experts too? Neither are going to happen so it’s a pointless hypothetical. If we take Sharp at pick 2 then send me your deets and I will post you a little trophy that says ‘Expert’

But it’s not going to happen, no matter how much all his Mum’s burner accounts on here want to barrack for it

 

[Knifey Spoony]

 

[Forward Press]

‘Cal Twomey is amateur hour because his intel doesn’t support my bias!’

Fine, you don't like Callum Twomey, no skin off my back, I don't have shares or a bet in whether he's right or wrong.

But he is not just another amateur. If his draft week final ranking has Sharp at 9, are we still going to be fine to pick him at 2 and melt if we don't? I'm prepared to bet my house that his phantom drafts since he started doing them are far better than BigFooty's West Coast board's finest - offence intended.

 

[Peptide Pig]

I did say it's not his final one but apologies for poor wording. You have to wait until draft week for the 2025 one, obviously. But 2022 to 2024 have been virtually spot on with the final draft order.

Great work. His rankings won’t be much different to the mock draft from this point. Especially at the top end where it’s almost always best available eg. Highest ranked

 

[Farmer Lister]

Dyson Sharp did an interview for Sen SA and asked about the go home factor. Which he answered well about it being an unknown.

But when answering he spoke about two SA players going to Perth (Bunga and Charlie Nicholls?) and how well the club helped with it. Perth on his mind especially when the clubs he got asked about were all Melbourne teams.

Very interesting definitely seems like he's been thinking about Perth specifically. Does he know something?

 

[Peptide Pig]

Fine, you don't like Callum Twomey, no skin off my back, I don't have shares or a bet in whether he's right or wrong.

But he is not just another amateur. If his draft week final ranking has Sharp at 9, are we still going to be fine to pick him at 2 and melt if we don't? I'm prepared to bet my house that his phantom drafts since he started doing them are far better than BigFooty's West Coast board's finest - offence intended.

Apologies if my sarcasm was not clear. I was mocking the posters calling Cal an amateur. He is an expert and his rankings are elite. Sharp is nowhere near pick 2 worthy. If I was banging on with the bizarre Sharp obsession that some posters on here have, then I would rightfully and deservedly accept your offense good sir, and possibly give myself an uppercut.

 

[cookiesncream]

Out of boredom I decided to compare Twomey's last five phantom drafts versus the actual draft - top 10 picks only (as once you go deeper in the draft the variance of course can become much larger). The amateurs are amateurs, Cal Twomey as the actual AFL appointed expert should get the most scrutiny.

2020

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1	JUH	JUH
2	Thilthorpe	Thilthorpe
3	Phillips	Hollands
4	McDonald	DGB
5	Campbell	McDonald
6	DGB	Phillips
7	Hollands	Bruhn
8	Cox	Reid
9	Perkins	Campbell
10	Reid	Henry

JUH was consensus number 1 and Thilthorpe at 2. The Essendon trio at 8,9 and 10 were largely shaped by list needs, but otherwise mostly correct. Interesting that Twomey identified Henry as top 10, he slid to 17 (Collingwood) but is possibly one of the top 5 players from the 2020 COVID draft.

2021

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1	JHF	JHF
2	Darcy	Darcy
3	Callaghan	Callaghan
4	Daicos	Daicos
5	Andrew	Andrew
6	Rachele	Rachele
7	Ward	Ward
8	Amiss	Amiss
9	Gibcus	Gibcus
10	Erasmus	Johnson

Cannot do much better than that, nailed the first 9 spot on. Johnson slid to 21 but obviously still ended up at Freo. NWM was also 11 for Callum Twomey. Erasmus was projected at 12.

2022

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1	Cadman	Cadman
2	Ashcroft	Ashcroft
3	Sheezel	Sheezel
4	Wardlaw	Wardlaw
5	Tsatas	Tsatas
6	Humphrey	Humphrey
7	Mackenzie	Mackenzie
8	Clark	Clark
9	Ginbey	Ginbey
10	Philippou	Philippou

No comment. He also predicted Oliver Hollands at 11 too.

2023

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1	Reid	Reid
2	McKercher	McKercher
3	Walter	Walter
4	Duursma	Duursma
5	Watson	Watson
6	Sanders	Sanders
7	Windsor	Windsor
8	Curtin	Leake
9	Read	Read
10	Caddy	Curtin

We all knew Curtin was a slight reach for Adelaide at the time and disappointed a fair few of us here, but again mostly spot on. Caddy was pick 11 according to Twomey.

2024

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1	Lalor	Lalor
2	O'Sullivan	O'Sullivan
3	Smith	Smith
4	Draper	Draper
5	Ashcroft	Ashcroft
6	Langford	Langford
7	Smillie	Smillie
8	Travaglia	Travaglia
9	Lombard	Lombard
10	Tauru	Tauru

Again nailed the top 10. He predicted Bo Allan at 11 though - hopefully it means we had a slight bargain by paying pick 16.

2025

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1		Duursma
2		Uwland
3		CDT
4		Patterson
5		Annable
6		Robey
7		Taylor
8		Dean
9		Sharp
10		Cumming

There will be another phantom released closer to the draft but Twomey at the moment has us picking CDT with our second pick overall...anyone betting on Sharp?

As you stated what you listed for the 2025 table is Cal Twomey's Form Guide for October not his phantom draft.

Using the 2024 Twomey's Form Guide for October would be a better comparison on his Cal's accuracy this far out from the draft. As you can see below, last year in October there was still a fair bit of movement between Twomey's October Form Guide and what eventuated.

2024​
Draft pick	Actual	Twomey Phantom Draft	Twomeys 2024 October Form Guide
1​	Lalor	Lalor	Levi Ashcroft
2​	O'Sullivan	O'Sullivan	Finn O'Sullivan
3​	Smith	Smith	Harvey Langford
4​	Draper	Draper	Sam Lalor
5​	Ashcroft	Ashcroft	Jagga Smith
6​	Langford	Langford	Murphy Reid
7​	Smillie	Smillie	Sid Draper
8​	Travaglia	Travaglia	Josh Smillie
9​	Lombard	Lombard	Alex Tauru
10​	Tauru	Tauru	Harry Armstrong

Dare say the same would be the case this year.

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fourth Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Forward Press]

As you stated what you listed for the 2025 table is Cal Twomey's Form Guide for October not his phantom draft.

Using the 2024 Twomey's Form Guide for October would be a better comparison on his Cal's accuracy this far out from the draft. As you can see below, last year in October there was still a fair bit of movement between Twomey's October Form Guide and what eventuated.

2024​
Draft pick	Actual	Twomey Phantom Draft	Twomeys 2024 October Form Guide
1​	Lalor	Lalor	Levi Ashcroft
2​	O'Sullivan	O'Sullivan	Finn O'Sullivan
3​	Smith	Smith	Harvey Langford
4​	Draper	Draper	Sam Lalor
5​	Ashcroft	Ashcroft	Jagga Smith
6​	Langford	Langford	Murphy Reid
7​	Smillie	Smillie	Sid Draper
8​	Travaglia	Travaglia	Josh Smillie
9​	Lombard	Lombard	Alex Tauru
10​	Tauru	Tauru	Harry Armstrong

Dare say the same would be the case this year.

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fourth Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

I've acknowledged that. We will see what he reveals when draft time arrives, it is entirely possible Sharp could be 2 and please those here who want him at 2.

 

[Forward Press]

Apologies if my sarcasm was not clear. I was mocking the posters calling Cal an amateur. He is an expert and his rankings are elite. Sharp is nowhere near pick 2 worthy. If I was banging on with the bizarre Sharp obsession that some posters on here have, then I would rightfully and deservedly accept your offense good sir, and possibly give myself an uppercut.

I was conveying agreement with your post, apologies.

I am 100% fine with Sharp from my limited scrutiny of the draft prospects, I don't claim to know better than Callum Twomey though, so I will back those on this board that want him at 2, I just wanted to try and understand why everyone has jumped on his wagon when Twomey and others aren't rating him at 2.

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

Apologies if my sarcasm was not clear. I was mocking the posters calling Cal an amateur. He is an expert and his rankings are elite. Sharp is nowhere near pick 2 worthy. If I was banging on with the bizarre Sharp obsession that some posters on here have, then I would rightfully and deservedly accept your offense good sir, and possibly give myself an uppercut.

His "rankings" aren't rankings, they're a phantom draft because he isn't a talent scout

 

[Schtinker]

Out of boredom I decided to compare Twomey's last five phantom drafts versus the actual draft - top 10 picks only (as once you go deeper in the draft the variance of course can become much larger). The amateurs are amateurs, Cal Twomey as the actual AFL appointed expert should get the most scrutiny.



2024

Draft pick	Actual	Twomey
1	Lalor	Lalor
2	O'Sullivan	O'Sullivan
3	Smith	Smith
4	Draper	Draper
5	Ashcroft	Ashcroft
6	Langford	Langford
7	Smillie	Smillie
8	Travaglia	Travaglia
9	Lombard	Lombard
10	Tauru	Tauru

Again nailed the top 10. He predicted Bo Allan at 11 though - hopefully it means we had a slight bargain by paying pick 16.

There will be another phantom released closer to the draft but Twomey at the moment has us picking CDT with our second pick overall...anyone betting on Sharp?

If you go back and look at his Phantom Form Guides you will see a stark difference from his Phantom Draft. 2024 for example he had in his form guide before the draft.

1 Ashcroft
2 O'Sullivan
3 Langford
4 Lalor
5 Smith
6 Reid
7 Draper
8 Smilie
9 Tauru
10 Armstrong

Based on that his 2025 Guide of having CDT number 2 doesn't matter as his Phantom Drafts are more accurate. On a needs basis Sharp ahead of CDT makes sense.

 

[SAweagle]

Simmo: we need those top 10 and moreso top 5 picks to get the A-grade mids. Thats where you build your midfield from.

<Crickets>

Reid

<Crickets>

TaLeNt OvEr NeEds

 

[Wedgetailed Westerner]

TaLeNt OvEr NeEds

Luckily we have the talent and needs for us right for the picking

 

[Wedgetailed Westerner]

CDT may have the higher ceiling but Sharp or Cumming are a need for us.
Pick 2 to us is basically a free hit from losing Allen.
We can afford to draft based on needs with this pick

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

We can afford to draft based on needs with this pick

We're so shit literally everything is a need.

 

[Peptide Pig]

I was conveying agreement with your post, apologies.

I am 100% fine with Sharp from my limited scrutiny of the draft prospects, I don't claim to know better than Callum Twomey though, so I will back those on this board that want him at 2, I just wanted to try and understand why everyone has jumped on his wagon when Twomey and others aren't rating him at 2.

Some posters just get tunnel vision on certain draftees and become overly attached to them, especially when they have been good from a long way out like Sharp (there was posts frothing him 12 months ago after a man-child bottom age year). Then they can’t accept when other prospects go past their guy. Sid Draper was up on a pedestal last year and going to come in and dominate from day one (he ended up doing not much for the Crows).

Maybe when the final mock draft comes out the delusion will end and people will accept we aren’t taking Sharp at pick 2.

 

[Peptide Pig]

His "rankings" aren't rankings, they're a phantom draft because he isn't a talent scout

People get very sensitive if you refer to his ‘Phantom form guide’ as a ‘Phantom/mock draft’. But splitting hairs at this point and for all intents and purposes it’s the same at the top end, pending bids and pick swaps. He has ranked players based on information from those in the industry, as opposed to his own opinions.

 

[Hook461123]

I’m ok with CDT at 2 if that’s who we end up with. I’ll hope that he proves me wrong and he is a unicorn who will change the game.
However I’ve wanted Sharp for some time. I wanted him last year when he more than held his own against a supposed superdraft in the champs. Then he had a 20d 1g game as an underager in a league final.
I figured at least if we end up low on the ladder we had a chance to get him. After watching us get killed at stoppage all year it just reaffirmed that was who I wanted.
To top it off he had a great draft year leading SA to a dominant win.

Maybe the rankings are right and there are half a dozen in front of him but I still think he is the perfect player for us.
Duursma on the outside, Sharp at the stoppage and Harley balanced. Seems like the start of an elite mid unit.

 

[twce13]

What if the Eagles pick CDT at pick 2?

im not overly invested in who we take, so if eagles go that route im fine with it.
just find it lol that sharp is being labelled as a reach by some in comparison to a robey who is literally as speculative as they come.

I find the concept or reachers and sliders to be quite stupid. players value are ultimately defined by where they are taken. Just because the copied homework doing the rounds says different doesnt make a player a reach/slide.

 

[Elite Pete]

 

[twce13]

Fair enough. Definitely some recency bias for Robey. My point was that no one is picking Sharp at pick 2, I referred to Robey because he is next highest ranked player after WD, if we were to take a midfielder at pick 2. However it’s probably more likely we take CDT as best available and more runs on the board.


If they pick Wes Walley at pick 2 I guess they are the experts too? Neither are going to happen so it’s a pointless hypothetical. If we take Sharp at pick 2 then send me your deets and I will post you a little trophy that says ‘Expert’

But it’s not going to happen, no matter how much all his Mum’s burner accounts on here want to barrack for it

You do realise that twoomey has sharp at 5 in the open pool of players just two spots behind robey ? I mean his oct rankings to final intel piece always have a fair bit of movement .

I’m not even saying sharp will be picked at 2, or overly invested that he is. Just laughing at how you’ve decided to die on a hill where sharp is a reach and robey isn’t.

Sounds to me like you’re the one positioning yourself as the expert with such a stubborn take.

 

[Elite Pete]

You do realise that twoomey has sharp at 5 in the open pool of players just two spots behind robey ? I mean his oct rankings to final intel piece always have a fair bit of movement .

I’m not even saying sharp will be picked at 2, or overly invested that he is. Just laughing at how you’ve decided to die on a hill where sharp is a reach and robey isn’t.

Sounds to me like you’re the one positioning yourself as the expert with such a stubborn take.

Yep, also Cal has said it is very hard to predict who will go after Duursma and CDT in the open draft because it’s so even between the next 8 and teams might pick for needs