List Mgmt. Draft thread - 2025 (remaining picks: 29, 34)

[Keys]

Live draft hand
R1: 1 (Duursma), 4 (CDT), 19 (Lindsay)
R2: 29, 34
RD: 1

Draft picks pre-draft
R1: 1, 2, 13
R2: 34, 41
RD: 1

List spots available
Main list: 2 (includes Duursma, CDT, Lindsay)
Cat A Rookie list: 1 (expecting Robertson, Macrae and Schoenberg to join as SSP signings)
Cat B Rookie list: 1

Draft order

Spoiler

Draft prospect video highlights (thanks to noobermensch)

Rookie Me Central 2025 Draft Guide

2025 AFL Draft Guide

online.fliphtml5.com

Matthew Clarke on Gettable 17/11

Spoiler

Cal Twomey’s Phantom Draft

Spoiler

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Cannot wait for random260 to break the internet when we pass on Sharp.

Will be a thing of absolute beauty.

Work just gave me a new laptop yesterday. Will end up against a wall on the 20th if we pass on Sharp at any pick other than 1 and 2. Passing at 2 will make me mad, but i get why they might so i'm prepared. Worst would be trading down to 5 and 6 then passing on him twice.....

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

I thought Sharp looked really good in his highlights package, but when it comes to ceilings and floors I have nfi, but given we're dealing with 17 year old kids, neither do most clubs and BigFooty randoms so Increase the draft age and we wouldn't be having these conversations (as much).

I just feel CDT is too risky given where we're at (the worst team ever) but if the club takes him I'll back him to the hilt until he starts looking like a Brander.

 

[uptheWC]

There isn’t. Sharp and Cumming for example would barely be top 10 in either of the last 2 years. There’s no Harley, Daicos calibre talent in the middle in this draft

Think this year’s draft class is being underrated due to the academy kids in the top 10. Think Sharp would comfortably be top 10 most years, not sure about Cumming though.

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

Sounds like our haul should be Duursma, Sharp and Dovaston which sounds good to me.

If I could pick my 3, that's it. All really suit Mini’s game style.

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

For the draft watchers - Gettable has Thredgold from SA as the best KPD in the draft. Does he last until pick our 34, or do we need to target an earlier pick (given 13 I assume is too early for him)? GC pick 18 perhaps?

Especially if we go Duursma & Sharp, I think our next 2 picks are talls and I think we need a young KPD developing under Brock, Edwards & Young.

Might go just before that, could last to there though.

 

[Choogler]

Problem being he was never a KPP. Just a 3rd tall/ flanker like Lukosious, Maric.

He was classed as a 195.5cm KPF in his draft profile. He won the Larke Medal playing CHF in that U18 Champs and I can't see that Melbourne drafted him for any other role than that. BTW, he was 5cm taller than Jack Darling who really was the size of a 3rd tall/flanker.

 

[Barrybran]

I think you are both correct on the interest from ESS & RICH for pick 2 and it will be for either CDT or Robey.
Reading between the lines and the unknown talk with Cal tells me we are dangling the carrot of pick 2 and are not playing our hand of who we want after Duursma.
This seems to take us back to weeks ago and after trade period that pick 2 is available for the right price if we can get our targets.

Duursma pick 1.

Pick 2 & 13 to ESS for 5 & 6 plus some extra like a F2nd to make it worthwile for WC, that's 10% premium for pick 2 which would be acceptable if we get our targets at picks 5 & 6.

Sharp & Cumming at picks 5 & 6.
Leaves us 34, 41, 53, 58 to take a slider or tall at 34/41 if no bids for Williams before then.

Interesting that Cal thinks clubs are rating Williams around the 20-25 area??
If that happens at pick 25 worst case, that will eat up picks 34 & 41 and the 10% discount for NGA and 80 points for 2nd round on discount should get us 130 points back being pick 46 if I have that worked out correctly??

Stiil think we will take a tall at 1 of those picks or slider if Curtin is taken.

If Essendon were willing to accept 2 + 13 for 5 + 6, the rest of that trade would be 34 for 30. The second round discount is 197 points, which would cost 34 + 41 as you have suggested, however we would get back pick 43 or 44.

That said, pick 34 would have already come in enough places to match that bid without the need of any additional picks thanks to the Suns' picks moving back.

 

[bzparkes]

Good to hear him mention he has a few Gippsland mates at WCE already in Maric, Archer Reid and Hutchinson. Harley obviously.

Good mates with Koby LeCras also, randomly.

 

[txbyhull]

Think this year’s draft class is being underrated due to the academy kids in the top 10. Think Sharp would comfortably be top 10 most years, not sure about Cumming though.

Sharp would be 8th or later last year, Smillie is a superior player in the same mould. I think in ‘23 he slides in ahead of Tholstrup and Gothard but can’t see him being a better prospect than even Curtin who was a reach at 9

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

Sharp would be 8th or later last year, Smillie is a superior player in the same mould. I think in ‘23 he slides in ahead of Tholstrup and Gothard but can’t see him being a better prospect than even Curtin who was a reach at 9

Sharp had a better u18 year than Smillie

 

[nameless]

With the potential for 20 less boundary throw-ins per game due to rule changes, how does that impact the need for a stoppage player?

We know CDT isn't an elite ruckman, but with the ball potentially 'in play' more, does his elite running and athleticism bolster his claim at #2 and potentially dampen some of the need for Sharp?

 

[uptheWC]

Sharp would be 8th or later last year, Smillie is a superior player in the same mould. I think in ‘23 he slides in ahead of Tholstrup and Gothard but can’t see him being a better prospect than even Curtin who was a reach at 9

I don’t see how Smillie is a superior player. Sharp has had a much more decorated junior career, what traits do you think Smillie has that Sharp doesn’t?

 

[Eastern Rangers]

With the potential for 20 less boundary throw-ins per game due to rule changes, how does that impact the need for a stoppage player?

We know CDT isn't an elite ruckman, but with the ball potentially 'in play' more, does his elite running and athleticism bolster his claim at #2 and potentially dampen some of the need for Sharp?

It won't make much difference either way. The ball won't be live though so the value of mobility will be hedged against the value of aerially dominant rucks. Clubs will defend against last touch pretty easily.

The loss of boundary throw-ins will assist jumping ruckmen like Williams who won't have to wrestle as often.

CDT is very good post stoppage so I don't see the reduction in throw-ins as positive or negative.

 

[WCE777]

If Essendon were willing to accept 2 + 13 for 5 + 6, the rest of that trade would be 34 for 30. The second round discount is 197 points, which would cost 34 + 41 as you have suggested, however we would get back pick 43 or 44.

That said, pick 34 would have already come in enough places to match that bid without the need of any additional picks thanks to the Suns' picks moving back.

cheers, you are correct on that sceneario with a bid.

 

[Choogler]

Have posted on here in clear favouritism of Sharp so do acknowledge am coming in with that bias, and will agree that as an armchair punter I don't know anywhere near as much about these prospects as the actual pros so in line with what you're saying should preface this with it being just my opinion and that I don't claim to know better than even many on here let alone the employed experts.

I guess just from a bigfooty argument perspective, I think a team's needs often get underrated in favour of purely 'best available' - particularly in the top 10 when you'd kind of assume everyone has the talent to make it to some degree given the right circumstances. Was having this discussion with a mate who works in the stats department for a Vic club who was admitting that, whilst if you get a slider in the third round best available is often the obvious choice, when it comes to top 10 he reckoned even the professionals at clubs are still divided/unsure on needs vs overall talent and its a debate that will probably rage forever.

From that perspective I'd argue needs would need to come into consideration for whether we can best develop that player to get maximum value out of them.

North were shocking IMO at consistently picking mids who were essentially the same player and wouldn't get a go in their preferred role - picked Powell and Phillips who are like the same player and both were underneath Simpkin and then Parker who they traded in so Powell ended up being a waste of pick 3. They lacked exploders and focused on toilers and couldn't fit them all in.

Sometimes it's easy to go "ah well they picked wrong" but Twomey had Phillips at 6, with Elijah Hollands at 3 and DGB at 4 so you kinda go "ah alright". Were those three secretly always going to be duds all along or were there development reasons based on where they ended up? I'd argue it's always at least some mix of both either way. Draftees obviously have a big year in their final underage year but at top 10 level they're almost always dominating either way, think a lot gets underrated about how much they're still developing the players they'll become in their first or second year in the AFL system.

Should we go Robey, would he be in line to be doing the same thing as Reid and Hewett, and as a result either play in an unbalanced midfield with an over-reliance on Jack Graham, or have to play other roles or develop in our WAFL black hole, or reinvent his game with less of his strengths emphasised like Phillips did?

I go back to last year's draft when about 2 months out I decided Lalor was the best kid in the draft and would have wanted WCE to take him at Pick 1 if we had first pick. I'm getting those same vibes with Robey.

Duursma is logically pick 1, and I would have no problem with CDT at 2, but if we don't take him, I'd be really peeved if we didn't take Robey. He is the Lalor of this year's draft.

I think HR, Elijah and Robey are all impact players, and yes we lack that consistent high stats accumulator but I reckon McCarthy could fill that role as a mid. With Starcevich coming in, don't be surprised to see him getting midfield minutes.. maybe in rotation with T Mac. Duursma could provide coverage at HB but I expect him to start on a wing.

Whatever happens, Robey does not get past Richmond's picks.

Based on our side I'd at least be confident there's an immediate spot for Sharp, and a clear vibe of how he'd fit in with our most important pieces going forwards. That might mean he becomes a 8/10 player and Robey gets picked later by someone else and becomes a 9/10 player, which I'd still take over us having a 7/10 Robey and another team having a 7/10 Sharp. Not fussed at all about how the pick after ours does if I knew we'd extracted our maximum value ourselves.

Should we take Duursma (seems likely) we'll have an elite transition athlete, as well as two elite burst players in Reid/Hewett, and IMO would be best balanced with an elite contested beast like Sharp.

That being said if we can trade down and still get Sharp, sure, or if our more-knowledgeable-than-me draft team rates someone like Robey significantly higher, then sure absolutely. But Twomey's rankings at this stage would be mostly based around chatter of who clubs like generally - if we see Sharp as within 5% of Robey talent wise but far more suitable then I'd hope we'd take him and couldn't care less about the players considered 1-2% higher or lower than him on the overall AFL consensus draft boards.

 

[dinnaz]

He was classed as a 195.5cm KPF in his draft profile. He won the Larke Medal playing CHF in that U18 Champs and I can't see that Melbourne drafted him for any other role than that. BTW, he was 5cm taller than Jack Darling who really was the size of a 3rd tall/flanker.

People see height and assume.
If you don't take contested marks you're not actually holding down a "key position" are you.
Ryan Maric is a very similar player. No one actually assumes he will bulk up and become the next Josh Kennedy.

 

[nameless]

The ball won't be live though

But it will be live more often presumably?

Where we used to have 20 boundary throw ins, that won't be replaced by 20 free kicks as teams will look to avoid taking the ball out, so the game will be in motion more, thus benefitting the runners and transition players?

I know the rule allows spoils over the line to still be thrown in, but I could see teams wanting to go corridor a bit more and having tall mobile players could become more valuable.

 

[Choogler]

With the potential for 20 less boundary throw-ins per game due to rule changes, how does that impact the need for a stoppage player?

We know CDT isn't an elite ruckman, but with the ball potentially 'in play' more, does his elite running and athleticism bolster his claim at #2 and potentially dampen some of the need for Sharp?

Not sure if there will be 20 less boundary throw-ins. AFLW already has the rule and it doesn't seem to have made that much difference.

 

[WCEConnor23]

5+21 or even 27 for 2, feels like a simple and win-win trade for both Essendon and WCE. WCE get 1 of Sharp or Cumming at 5, Essendon get Robey or CDT and keep two picks within the top 10. WCE gain another pick and select a good player with 21 or 27. We could even throw in a late pick if Essendon need points for their NGA's.

 

[txbyhull]

I don’t see how Smillie is a superior player. Sharp has had a much more decorated junior career, what traits do you think Smillie has that Sharp doesn’t?

Smillie’s height as a POD already has him beating Sharp in my books considering their comparable skill sets, aside from that I’d place Smillie’s athleticism a few tiers above Sharp’s especially from an agility standpoint (even considering they’re both not the fastest). I’d also say Smillie has much better kicking, even though I think Sharp’s is often undersold. Sharps main criticism being his ceiling is something Smillie will never have to worry about. Smillie gets taken over Sharp every day of the week by clubs.

 

[Farmer Lister]

Listening to the sen WA interview with Duursma it's slightly concerning that Koby Evans and Tylah Williams "drink too much" 14.21 in:

 

[Off Tap]

With the potential for 20 less boundary throw-ins per game due to rule changes, how does that impact the need for a stoppage player?

We know CDT isn't an elite ruckman, but with the ball potentially 'in play' more, does his elite running and athleticism bolster his claim at #2 and potentially dampen some of the need for Sharp?

What's the chance with less boundary throw-ins there will be an increase in congestion between the arcs resulting in more ball-ups?

Anyone who watches the SANFL know if that was the case this year?

I have a feeling that with players keeping the ball in play instead of heading to the boundary there will be more ball-ups around the ground.

 

[txbyhull]

I don’t see how Smillie is a superior player. Sharp has had a much more decorated junior career, what traits do you think Smillie has that Sharp doesn’t?

Sharp had a better u18 year than Smillie

You both bring up the same point being Sharp’s draft year and production, which is fine and dandy. But it goes to the same discussion we keep having re Sharp in this thread about whether clubs draft on day 1 or day 1000. Smillie projects at an infinitely better ceiling due to his PODs and relative athleticism gap on Sharp. He suits the modern game significantly better and would stand out to clubs as such. 100 times out of 100 Eagles would be taking Smillie at pick 2 if he was available. Or even pick 1.

 

[Jeremy McLovin]

Listening to the sen WA interview with Duursma it's slightly concerning that Koby Evans and Tylah Williams "drink too much" 14.21 in:

Hopefully just muddying the waters to lower the bid range.

 

[bzparkes]

Listening to the sen WA interview with Duursma it's slightly concerning that Koby Evans and Tylah Williams "drink too much" 14.21 in:

Kickett talking about Tylah Williams

The 'Koby' he asked about is Koby LeCras.