List Mgmt. Drafting or Development?

[Crusty Undies]

Seen a few people questioning our recent recruiting. Seen others saying it's a developmental issue. I thought it deserved its own thread to discuss.

Personally I see it as a developmental issue as a lot of our draftees are excellent in their first year and look like they have all instinctive play beaten out by the time they reach their second year (Eli, Sincs, Lonie). Interested in others thoughts too.

 

[BarkerFan]

Seen a few people questioning our recent recruiting. Seen others saying it's a developmental issue. I thought it deserved its own thread to discuss.

Personally I see it as a developmental issue as a lot of our draftees are excellent in their first year and look like they have all instinctive play beaten out by the time they reach their second year (Eli, Sincs, Lonie). Interested in others thoughts too.

Drafting

Look at the Hawks... everyone has been saying they are great at development.. yadayadayada
their current youngsters have been coming through learning off some greats of the game, in a success filled era... yet they are no good

When there is nothing to develop... it does not help much

You can't polish a turd, as they say

(of course... the coaches need to work hard on development to get that extra few percent out of the talent they have been given to work with)

 

[plugger66]

I can only go what I see and I cant see poor development because I'm not at the club so I will go with the drafting.

 

[Murraj1966]

I won't make judgements on poor development because I've seen players like Newnes and Ross come on when I expected not much from them.

I'll wait till Billings and Paddy are closer to their age/games demographic before calling bust.

 

[Masquerade]

Still too early to say IMO. None of the kids have technically become busts yet (2013 onwards) nor have they blossomed into superstars.

With the drafting, there's not to be many picks that were surprises at the time or even kids that we didn't know about. I seem to remember many threads popping up about how we 'won' the 2013 and 2014 drafts and we over the moon with Jade Gresham.

2013: We drafted Billings (pick 3), Dunstan (18) and Acres (19) - Billings was widely touted as our pick 3 (other options at the time being Scharenberg and Aish with no real mention of the Bont) while very early draft talk had Luke as a possible pick 1! So really can't see much wrong with the drafting without any hindsight. I mean sure Bont, Merrett and Pearce would've been better but it's pretty unfair to pin this on our recruiters who don't have time machines.

2014: McCartin (1), Goddard (21), McKenzie (22), Lonie (41). This one isn't as clear cut as I thought it would be actually. There's going to be, for a while at least if not for a whole lot longer, some criticism for taking Paddy over Petracca. Very early days, Christian looks the better player. But, you factor in that Paddy is a KPP, has diabetes and is still unfit plus the fact that we had no real key forward options back then and it's still too early to make a call. Paddy's concussions issues add a further dynamic to the debate as well. Again though, it's not like we picked him from no where because he was still very very highly rated and would've gone top 3. It's not like we picked some guy tipped to go pick 30 because we just really wanted a forward badly. Goddard seems perfectly fine and everyone was going crazy when we got him. Funnily enough, he was another tipped to go No.1 early in his draft year. DMac is weird. There wasn't much hype about him but he's shown enough promise so far to justify picking him. Lonie had an awesome first year and at pick 41, he's more than justified as well.

2015: Gresham (18), White (40) and Rice (49). Looks pretty good so far from all accounts. Gresham has shown why he probably deserved to go higher if not for his height and apparently both White and Rice are getting huge praise internally. Two of them were picked in the 40s where the draft gets a little dodgy anyway so it's hard to be anything but happy. I will add that White, like DMac, was someone who wasn't really hyped on here much (not that it means anything).

2016: Was going to do this one but I'm lazy and there's no point evaluating 2016 so soon anyway. Long has played one game and seemed okay. He was definitely a left field choice but it was pick 20 odd so meh. And then we got Battle soon after plus Phillips.

So that's the drafting and it's hard to pinpoint too many mistakes without hindsight. DMac instead of Touk Miller is perhaps one that we can claim but honestly, that seems to be it. I also want to point out the 2011 draft which we've absolutely nailed. Newnes, Ross and Webster are going to be very important players for us in the future.

The development evaluation is more interesting because it's a little more subjective I suppose. I ended up sort of looking at what signs these players showed when they started as opposed to where they are now. It's a mix of stats and just pure observation so it's not the most reliable analysis but I'm bored. Also, I figure it's better doing this after a win rather than a loss where I'm normally in the mood of roasting the players (metaphorically ofc).

1. Billings - Averaged 14.56 disposals and 0.88 goals in Year 1 before making a nice little leap to 20.33 disposals and 0.78 goals in his second year. Since then, his disposals per game and goals per game numbers have actually decreased. He seems to have been thrown into myriad positions despite all his best games coming when he's played a significant amount of time forward. Personally, it looks like we've tried to turn him from a silky, forward pocked weapon into a outside,winger and it hasn't worked. It's actually a sign of his class that he's still gone decent. Is his problem, up to this point remember, (I am not calling him a bust! <---- read this) talent or development? I'm going to have to say development.

2. Lukey D - Averaged 18.75 disposals a game in year 1 and it's more or less hovered there for an overall career average of 17.77. His other numbers are more or less the same as well - just really stable. I remember the reason he slid so much was because people thought he had a pretty firm ceiling that he would struggle to break and it just depended on what recruiters saw as his ceiling. Honestly, he gets to play inside mid week in, week out and has shown 0 improvement. That doesn't seem to be a development issue but unfortunately a drafting decision that our recruiters might've mucked up. Again, this is all in terms of his present value. I'm not saying he won't get better in the future.

3. Acres - He's shown clear improvement year on year, from averaging 11.86 disposals in year 2 to 17.75 by the end of last year. He never seems to get a clear run at it and theories range from him being lazy to Richo hating him for whatever reason. I can't really say whether the issue is development or drafting because there's no issue as of now. If he does go bust (notice me saying if), it could be because he gets dropped for no obvious reason or because he can't kick/is just too casual. One of those is a development thing, the other is drafting. Too hard to call.

4. Paddy - Not really going to bother with stats because he's had no continuity. Seems to have strong hands and knows how to lead. On the other hand, he's still quite unfit and seems to struggle with concussions or some head knock almost every game now. The concussions are just bad luck I'd say so its neither a fault of the coaching he's received nor is it Trout's fault for picking him. Again it's too early to say much but if he does turn out to be a bust or even a GOP (again, I stress that this is an if to those who want to complain) then Trout and his drafting will have to live with it.

5. Goddard - No point. He's played only the one season. Worryingly, he was struggling last year even before his Achilles snapped. Also got a heat stroke which is never good. But yeah, let's see with this guy.

6. DMac - A weird one. Every year, in his admittedly short career, he's promised to show some signs but he's been a tease so far. Wasn't a big ball winner in his junior days, so he was definitely picked due to this athletic abilities. Also very courageous. Just like Paddy, he's taken some big head knocks and actually suffered from migraines after the draft. Currently, all of Jimmy, White and Rice seem to have passed him which is not good, especially considering he was supposedly ahead of them all about 2 months ago. If he doesn't show more soon, he'll have to go down as a drafting fail.

7. Lonie - Frustrating player. I was huge wraps on him when I saw him do really well against the Hawks in a NAB game in 2014. Had an awesome first year, rubbish second year but, crucially, is showing some improvement this year. He's improved his disposal count steadily from 10 to 14, tackles from 3 to 5 and seems more involved overall. Has gained whipping boy status but I feel it's not yet justified from both a statistical and subjective standpoint. He seems to play better when he gets stints from the midfield and has shown enough for me to think it'll be a development failure if he doesn't come on. For a pick 40, Trout did well to get him.

8. Gresham - One of the few players to actually keep playing well after a strong first year. Average disposals down from 15 to 13 but goals up from 0.67 to 1.67. Also averaging slightly more clearances. His true test will come when he has to eventually move to the midfield, so it's hard to say so far. That being said, he has all the tricks and if he doesn't succeed then the blame will have to fall on development.

9 White and Rice - have played one game between them. No idea and I've written too much to elaborate on them. Personally, like the sound of Rice so I hope he becomes a player.

Overall, this gigantic post has achieved nothing, so that's always fun. When I started out, I was firmly in the camp that development was to blame. The 'analysis', however, proved a little different. I did find that for most players, it's too early to write them off. They're not guaranteed All-Australians yet like others in the same drafts but none have disappeared ala Toumpas or Aish etc. So, the 'analysis' was more forward looking in terms of what could be blamed if a player happened to fail.

I think we can only say with any certainty by the end of this year for the 2013 crop and by the end of 2018 for the rest. Until then, let's hope they all improve and give us plenty of joy.

 

[StCicatriz]

was it the 2014 draft where we were considering drafting hartung? thank god we avoided that one. the bloke is a liability. all he can do is run fast and then burn the football. if he has a man on him or goes any where near a contest he goes to water

 

[Remboy]

was it the 2014 draft where we were considering drafting hartung? thank god we avoided that one. the bloke is a liability. all he can do is run fast and then burn the football. if he has a man on him or goes any where near a contest he goes to water

Hartung was in the same draft as Acres and Dunstan. Bit of a sliding doors moment in the McEvoy trade. Pretty sure he was mentioned pre draft as being in the same bracket of players as Acres and Dunstan.

 

[DGontheQT]

Dunstan was ready to go when debuting , and therefore might not have had much scope for improvement. (Not knocking Dunstan , he'll be around a while) Guys like Spencer White however , well if they can't find the ball at junior level , they generally can't be developed. You can't teach desire , and with footy smarts they can only be improved marginally. It all goes back to drafting. Drafting players who can get it , that are smart enough to learn AFL gameplans , etc. We discovered what Jamie Cripps had , after drafting him , discovered Big Jake was into illicit drugs after trading for him (Not questioning his ability , just the fact the club hadn't looked into the rumours) , we just need to do more homework , and learn from our mistakes. The Dockers fly their Doctor around to check out players they are into - pre draft. Other clubs use P.I's. I'd rather spend money there and have one less development coach. Joel Selwood was drafted in a November but was a star by April. *That's drafting not development.

 

[Crusty Undies]

Dunstan was ready to go when debuting , and therefore might not have had much scope for improvement. (Not knocking Dunstan , he'll be around a while) Guys like Spencer White however , well if they can't find the ball at junior level , they generally can't be developed. You can't teach desire , and with footy smarts they can only be improved marginally. It all goes back to drafting. Drafting players who can get it , that are smart enough to learn AFL gameplans , etc. We discovered what Jamie Cripps had , after drafting him , discovered Big Jake was into illicit drugs after trading for him (Not questioning his ability , just the fact the club hadn't looked into the rumours) , we just need to do more homework , and learn from our mistakes. The Dockers fly their Doctor around to check out players they are into - pre draft. Other clubs use P.I's. I'd rather spend money there and have one less development coach. Joel Selwood was drafted in a November but was a star by April. *That's drafting not development.

I agree for the most part that we seem to be a little negligent on doing research sometimes. I still think that a lot of the issue with our second year blues though comes from poor development. Players like Lonie and Sinclair are the two that stand out as when they came to the club they looked like 2 top 10 players from their draft but going into the second season they looked flat and like they didn't know what to do, like they lost their instinct. It seems like they weren't given enough freedom to make decisions when they had the ball and were forces into bad positions when they didn't which (imo) lead to the decreased efficiency, disposals and impact on games.

 

[StCicatriz]

Why is McKenzie now being played down back when he was identified as a winger?

Like wise why did Savage go down back after being identified as a midfielder?

Where did Eli Templetons run and flair go?

Why hasn't dunstans tank improved?

Why has seb Ross inside game dropped off?

 

[PoppedCorn]

In before thread turns into a debate on certain players and how shit our drafting was up until a couple of years ago......you know, like the stuff in the other two threads

 

[#gosaintas]

Why is McKenzie now being played down back when he was identified as a winger?

Like wise why did Savage go down back after being identified as a midfielder?

Where did Eli Templetons run and flair go?

Why hasn't dunstans tank improved?

Why has seb Ross inside game dropped off?

The development of Ross has been a great success so far

 

[StCicatriz]

The development of Ross has been a great success so far

Totally he has improved his weakness into his biggest strength. I'm not complaining more just making an observation that his strength at the stoppage has been lost a little. It's one area of his game I'd love to see improve as it was a real strength of his that saw him get drafted

 

[Brains Trust66]

Why is McKenzie now being played down back when he was identified as a winger?

Like wise why did Savage go down back after being identified as a midfielder?

Where did Eli Templetons run and flair go?

Why hasn't dunstans tank improved?

Why has seb Ross inside game dropped off?

DMac has raw pace and I assume it was decided he would be great to come off the half back line using his pace to break the lines. Unfortunately now that he has to worry about defending he seems to have lost his confidence in trying to outrun people . He was never given enough time on the wing to get that I can take on the world confidence that you need to burst through lines.

Savage is very similar to DMac except it was his kicking plus his pace that made them decide to play him in the back line. But in fairness to the coach when he first came to the Saints he struggled to get a game because his disposal wasn't quick enough to be a mid . He was tried in the mid then up forward where he just didn't seem to know where to be and found it hard to get in the game. I thought he was going to play another year and then be delisted but the best thing for him was to be moved into the backline. First he's great for kicking in , can kick along way and likes to play on to get the ball even further out. And I think he's much better at defending as opposed to attacking.

Temp was playing fine till he broke his arm badly. He really stood out with the dreadlocks so people liked him. Unfortunately not only had he lost his place in the side after his broken arm, he lost his confidence too. And also by cutting his hair he blended in so you didn't see him standout anymore. Probably could have been given more time at the club but was a victim of our improved depth. They had to make places for new players and unfortunately he had to go. You could say he didn't take his chances but I think he was more unlucky. We will never know what he might have been if he hadn't of broken his arm.

Dunstan first year was great because he still had Hayes ahead doing the real hard work . So he was able to go hard at it for 10 - 15 mins then have a rest for the rest of the quarter. When Hayes retired he had to run all day . I think his tank has improved and I think if given the chance might really break out next year . That would mean he will have his break out year about the same as Armo and others.

Ross is an interesting one. He reminds me of a cricket player. Say he's a bowler and he's quite good but his batting lets him down so he spends more time in the nets practicing his batting which then improves but his bowling now suffers .
Ross had a good inside game but he decided he needed to improve his outside work to make himself a better all round footballer. So he's has concentrated on his outside work at training. Now of course his inside work has suffered .
However I think it has helped his game because he's not so one dimensional as he was before.

Ok that's my thoughts , it doesn't mean they are right , it just what I think. What do others think ?


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[Crusty Undies]

In before thread turns into a debate on certain players and how shit our drafting was up until a couple of years ago......you know, like the stuff in the other two threads

 

[saint_]

Our recruiting been satisfactory. No standouts, but good players to fill in the gaps. Where was Zach Merrett positioned to be drafted before the 2013 draft? Did all recruiters feel they should not pick him because his brother's association with Essendon?

 

[lewdogs]

I'm pretty happy with how our youngsters are tracking. Particularly pleased with Gresham, Acres, Ross, Newnes, Webster, Membrey. Billings hasn't set the world on fire but we saw what he can do on Sunday and my hopes have been restored. Dunstan is still looking for consistency.

Some of these guys that we're mentioning, like Sinclair, Eli, we have to remember that they were rookie picks. Mav was also picked up number 22 in the rookie draft and has now cemented a spot in the side.

I think this discussion seems to come from a perspective of "Why aren't all our guys A-Grade players yet", but when you look at it more patiently our youth is tracking very very well.

And if it's about Paddy then seriously, Richo has made it pretty clear; he will take time. Best to focus on Gresh if you're after a quick fix.

 

[Brains Trust66]

I'm pretty happy with how our youngsters are tracking. Particularly pleased with Gresham, Acres, Ross, Newnes, Webster, Membrey. Billings hasn't set the world on fire but we saw what he can do on Sunday and my hopes have been restored. Dunstan is still looking for consistency.

Some of these guys that we're mentioning, like Sinclair, Eli, we have to remember that they were rookie picks. Mav was also picked up number 22 in the rookie draft and has now cemented a spot in the side.

I think this discussion seems to come from a perspective of "Why aren't all our guys A-Grade players yet", but when you look at it more patiently our youth is tracking very very well.

And if it's about Paddy then seriously, Richo has made it pretty clear; he will take time. Best to focus on Gresh if you're after a quick fix.

Agreed , Paddy needs time like Josh Kennedy and Tom Hawkins did. Like Richo says , he thinks he's going to be a beauty for our club.
Maybe next year we might have Paddy at one end and Hugh Goddard at the other , how awesome would that be , not forgetting Carlisle and Bruce making the spine for years to come .


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