Preview Essendon's 2012 draw

[DapperDon]

Is it wrong to get hard over a football fixture?

 

[Ben the Gooner]

If we're serious, the absolute worst case should be 8-3 by the bye. 9-2 should be the pass mark.

 

[eth-dog]

Is it wrong to get hard over a football fixture?

No, not at all

 

[Mr Mojo Risin]

Gotta love the "expert" analysis from the wonderful HSUN.

Look at the comment about North Melbourne's draw: "Will play only one 2011 finalist (St Kilda) between Rounds 13-22.

West Coast, Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood didn't play finals in 2011?

Obvious copy & paste error from the Melbourne draw.

 

[eth-dog]

If we're serious, the absolute worst case should be 8-3 by the bye. 9-2 should be the pass mark.

I'm saying we'll be 8-3 by round 11

 

[bacon buster]

we're not that good. 7-4 is realistic.

 

[Slattery_20]

Got your knickers twisted into a bunch here mate.

It's not that bad!

I'm inclined to think you're taking the piss actually. Not like you to be so negative slatts.


Realistically, looking at the draw, I think we're a good chance for 12-14 wins. Which will have us playing finals comfortably.

You know what's really negative?

Recent record
v Port (2 wins from the last 14)
v North (2 in the last 9)
v Richmond (4 from the last 12)
v Geelong (2 from our last 11)
v Collingwood (2 from our last 10)
at the MCG (1 from our last 13 starts)
@ football park (3 from our last 17)
@ Subiaco (2 from our first 16)



That's depressing.

 

[fishardansin]

My review. This is the best draw we have had in 8-10 years.
- 5 interstate games to the 5 teams we can beat. It's a blessing we have GC/GWS. (Gold Coast will beat a couple of teams up there, hopefully not us).
- 5 teams we play twice is decent too. Collingwood/Carlton/North/Richmond and Port.
- First half of the year will set us up perfectly

NORTH MELBOURNE -win
PORT ADELAIDE - win
GOLD COAST - win
CARLTON - win
COLLINGWOOD - loss
BRISBANE LIONS - win
WEST COAST EAGLES - loss
RICHMOND - win
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY - win
MELBOURNE - win
SYDNEY SWANS - win
BYE
FREMANTLE - loss
WESTERN BULLDOGS - win
ST KILDA - loss
PORT ADELAIDE - win
GEELONG CATS - loss
HAWTHORN - loss
ADELAIDE - win
NORTH MELBOURNE - win
CARLTON - loss
RICHMOND - loss
COLLINGWOOD - loss

I agree with most of what you wrote there except that we seem to have lost our hold on Carlton and will struggle against them until we develop our midfield. I think we'll continue to beat St Kilda though.

What this draw seems to do is build up supporter expectation by half way and the lid will be well off as we'll be close to top four. We'll then struggle through the rest of the season and end up limping into the finals only to be bundled out again. If we do up the ante over the preseason expect a tough run with injury as well so that'll only make it worse.

If my predictions are true I hope it doesn't ruin the confidence regards finals for our list in the long term.

EDIT: I think that we'll end up not beating as many teams above as we have over the last few years. I believe that the coaching staff will iron out the kinks and make us a better team at beating the ones below us. This will mean other top teams will put more planning into us and beat us more regularly.

I see us beating Richmond. So all in all 14 wins is ok. could end up getting us a home final.

 

[Slattery_20]

If we win 6 of our first 11 I'll be very, very surprised.

Every year, people completely mis-read our fixture. Remember last year? "zomg, WB/St K to start = losses, North/Port = wins"

Until further notice, it's the same old Essendon: good @ Etihad, shit elsewhere, head-****ed against North, Port & Richmond; and plain old not good enough to knock off the better sides.

 

[fishardansin]

You know what's really negative?

Recent record
v Port (2 wins from the last 14)
v North (2 in the last 9)
v Richmond (4 from the last 12)
v Geelong (2 from our last 11)
v Collingwood (2 from our last 10)
at the MCG (1 from our last 13 starts)
@ football park (3 from our last 17)
@ Subiaco (2 from our first 16)



That's depressing.

That is depressing. You know what else is depressing. They don't have a ladder predictor for next season to help me procrastinate the whole days away!!!

 

[Slattery_20]

- 5 teams we play twice is decent too. Collingwood/Carlton/North/Richmond and Port.

LOL. If only we could've got Geelong as well it'd just round it out.

 

[Fin ice Smuggler]

Not a bad draw me thinks, the ball is in our own court to get a good start, It's what we asked for pretty much apart from 2 games against GWS.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

we're not that good. 7-4 is realistic.

2011 Essendon wasn't, but if we're serious about improving in 2012, the Richmonds and the Norths are the games we should be improving in.

Factoring in home ground advantage, we're better than all bar 2 of those teams, so 8-3 is already dropping a game we should win IMO.

The second half of the draw should define where in the 8 we finish. Missing the 8 from an 8-3 or better start is nigh on impossible, so if we miss it's because of the first 11 weeks.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Purely from a crowd drawing perspective, I think what disappoints me the most is that our games against Geelong and Hawthorn are both at Etihad, despite being Friday night games.

Both should have been played at the MCG. They could both draw 60k+ at the MCG, possibly close to 70+ in the case of Hawthorn.

I know you've said from a crowd perspective, but we tend to always play Geelong at Etihad, and to get Hawthorn there also is a massive positive for us I feel.

It's easy to say we should be playing the bigger games at the G as it's where we'll be playing finals footy (if we get there), but simple fact is we're pretty horrible there in recent times, and if we get a chance to play a team that we wouldnt really be expected to beat with one of our strengths (Etihad) then I'll take it!

 

[Tassieboy]

Hawthorn at Etihad now we're both up and about Would probably draw 70k and the MCG - strange. But I guess more of a chance to win.

Trip to GC sounds enticing, too.

 

[Knight Ryders]

2011 Essendon wasn't, but if we're serious about improving in 2012, the Richmonds and the Norths are the games we should be improving in.

Factoring in home ground advantage, we're better than all bar 2 of those teams, so 8-3 is already dropping a game we should win IMO.

The second half of the draw should define where in the 8 we finish. Missing the 8 from an 8-3 or better start is nigh on impossible, so if we miss it's because of the first 11 weeks.

I'm with you Benno, I'm very "up and about" after seeing the draw. North, Richmond and West Coast should all be challenging matches but three that we should start favourites in and win.

No disrespect to Port, but if we can't win that match then we may as well forget about finals

 

[eth-dog]

North are going to finish 8th

 

[Kyptastic]

RICHMOND - loss

Other than that, looks like we should win around 14 games next year if we play to our potential. Would give us a good chance of winning at least one final.

 

[beev]

Happy with that.

We should win at least 3 of our away trips .

After the bye is definitely a lot harder. A 6-5 split is what I think we should get, but we never know who will rise and fall so that could change. If we win the games we should before the bye we're perfectly placed to play finals.

 

[Smyth94]

If we win 6 of our first 11 I'll be very, very surprised.

Every year, people completely mis-read our fixture. Remember last year? "zomg, WB/St K to start = losses, North/Port = wins"

Until further notice, it's the same old Essendon: good @ Etihad, shit elsewhere, head-****ed against North, Port & Richmond; and plain old not good enough to knock off the better sides.

Seriously mate, get a grip.

If start off like we did last year, I'd be pretty disappointed if we're lower than 7-4.

I don't GAF about "hoodoos" and past records...they're meant to be broken by good sides, which is what we're aiming to be.

 

[eth-dog]

Happy with that.

We should win at least 3 of our away trips .

After the bye is definitely a lot harder. A 6-5 split is what I think we should get, but we never know who will rise and fall so that could change. If we win the games we should before the bye we're perfectly placed to play finals.

We should beat all 5 of them. Don't rate Ross over there, hasn't got a sustainable game plan. As well as the fact He can't beat us. We're vastly superior to Adelaide, PA, GWS and GC, so I'd be dissapointed if we didn't go 4/5 or 5/5 interstate this year

Seriously mate, get a grip.

If start off like we did last year, I'd be pretty disappointed if we're lower than 7-4.

I don't GAF about "hoodoos" and past records...they're meant to be broken by good sides, which is what we're aiming to be.

We'll be 8-3. All winnable games, only losses to Carlton, Collingwood and West Coast.

On another point, your avatars back-to-back make me a little hard

 

[TheGoldenBoy]

North Melbourne - WIN
Port Adelaide - WIN
Gold Coast - WIN
Carlton - LOSS
Collingwood LOSS
Brisbane - WIN
West Coast - 50/50
Richmond - WIN
GWS - WIN
Melbourne - WIN
Sydney - 50/50
Fremantle - 50/50
Western Bulldogs - WIN
St.Kilda - 50/50
Port Adelaide - WIN
Geelong - LOSS
Hawthorn - LOSS
Adelaide - WIN
North Melbourne - WIN
Carlton - LOSS
Richmond - WIN
Collingwood - LOSS

I have us with 12 certain wins, 6 most likely losses. 4 50/50's. We can win those 50/50's just a matter of form. If we finish the season with 16 wins.. Home final surely a certainty

 

[Jesse Custer]

lol at predicting wins and losses in october 2011.... FFS, no one knows what's going to happen. You guys are overrating our squad again...

 

[TheGoldenBoy]

lol at predicting wins and losses in october 2011.... FFS, no one knows what's going to happen. You guys are overrating our squad again...

No, you're underrating our squad. Just like every other clubs supporters. We have some of the best young kids coming through the ranks. With a fit list, I can see us finishing top 6.

We also proved last year we can match it & beat the best with the same side we have now.. Our biggest down point was losing to teams we shouldn't have. Melbourne, Fremantle, North Melbourne, Richmond. We were unlucky not to snare a win against Carlton in Round 4. We were unlucky against Sydney in Round 2. We went 2 men down just after half time against West Coast and matched it with them up until then. Lost 2 men in the first 10 minutes against Collingwood and they didn't get in front until midway through the 3rd quarter. We beat Geelong, West Coast, Sydney, St.Kilda who finished in the top 8 this season.

If anything mate, you're underrating our squad

 

[Tassieboy]

lol at predicting wins and losses in october 2011.... FFS, no one knows what's going to happen. You guys are overrating our squad again...

No harm in speculation, anticipation, and optimism.