Essendon's Next premiership

[Towno78]

So the GF is done and dusted, my head hurts and I want a premiership. When do you think it'll happen?

Personally, I think your team needs to have played off in a prelim in an immediately previous year to step up and go the whole way (whilst I'm hoping, I don't think that will be next year)... So I'm thinking 2014.

Is the puzzle coming together? Do we have all the pieces already, or are there necessary pieces missing? If so, can they be found and added quickly or are there too many missing still to see the reality of our next premiership?

 

[Burzum]

Within the next 100 years.

 

[Jesse Custer]

At the moment can't see it. There is plenty to do before we get to the level required to play in a Grand Final let alone win it...

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Can't see it. Not enough evidence, for starters, that we've got the makings of a premiership team. Then there's the specter of GC and GWS hanging over a certain era in the forseeable future of the competition.

 

[Tassieboy]

Within the next 100 years.

Talk about putting your balls on the line.

 

[SirJimi05]

Hopefully in the next 10 years.

Doesn't look like happening any time soon.

Just need to look at how far we are behind the best teams.

 

[Legendary Soundpost]

Within the next 100 years.

Can anyone report a mods post successfully?
That's a red card surely.....

 

[fairlight_cmi]

Don't think it'll be before 2015.

Next year we may make finals and lose in an elim. (again ) Could also miss out on finals, not sold on us completely atm.
Year after should make finals, maybe win in an elim., then lose the week after.
2014 possibly top 4 (4-6 range on the ladder, impossible to win the flag really.)
2015 hopefully a contender.

Anything can happen though, ie: WCE 2010-2011. Let's hope it does.

 

[stugots]

it does look like the side will take a fair bit of time to get anywhere near the consistency of this years top 3 but as we see season after season, the improvement can come on very quickly & take most by surprise & whilst 2014 would be 'best case scenario' for mine, i feel it's doable if the stars align.

 

[Summer Nights]

I'm so gonna win this internetz.

 

[zackah]

I definitely think we're building. Should be serious contenders 2014-16 with a mature list at that stage and hopefully another A grade midfielder by then. Of course a lot depends on the development of GC, GWS and even dare I say it sides like Richmond, Melbourne etc. I'd be very disappointed though if the list we are developing under Hird and co doesn't deliver the silverware.

 

[HurleyTheFuture]

voted 2015
Would expect a successful year next year to be 6-8 finish
I just hope this year wasnt like our 09 year
When we consistently put away lower teams I will be confident
We have shown we can beat top 4 teams
By 2013 I would expect us to be where carlton is right now, top 4 I dare say
If everything goes right we might be able to challenge by 2014 but I doubt it

Hopefully by then GC and GWS arent miles ahead of the competition

 

[ghostdog]

2014-2015 before we even challenge.
We need more explosive speed and control from clearances.
We'd need T-Bell and Ryder to be on top of their game.
We'd need Hurley and Crameri to be tearing up defenders and looking like constant threats.
We're a fair way off yet.

 

[Godzke]

Yeah can't see the window opening before 2014 tbh.

 

[LB#16]

A couple of years of finals first. Plan should be to win a final, win another final, make top 4, make a preliminary final then win a premiership. Wouldn't mind seeing us skip over a couple of steps at all...

I wouldn't be worrying too much until we lose a few finals in a row. You never want to create a habit of losing finals.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

Hope we can pinch it next year.

No reason why our 2-5 year players can't start playing their best football from next year.
Our list is close to reaching the age and games bracket to challenge.

We now have some serious units in the side in Watson, Hocking, Crameri, Hurley.

We have a pretty good developing midfield and guys like Melksham, Zaka and to a lesser extent Howlett should start coming into their own. Our midfield at the start of this year was winning nearly all key stats and dropped off once we started to get injuries and suspensions.

Maybe next year is one we get lucky on and then the following 5 years we have a Geelong like run.

 

[LB#16]

My fear is that a majority of our fans will turn that H word (hope) into an E word (expect) and everyone will chuck a fit when we don't improve as dramatically next season.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

My fear is that a majority of our fans will turn that H word (hope) into an E word (expect) and everyone will chuck a fit when we don't improve as dramatically next season.

...which is, truth be told, a much better mindset than a lot of the loser clubs. Essendon, as a club, is defined by a high standard of football that it has failed to meet for a long time. I think it's only fair that people want and expect improvement that trends towards the next premiership. It's why Knights was sacked; in fact, it's why he should never have been hired in the first place. Mediocrity is for other clubs.

I think that looking at it purely in terms of W/L is a perhaps a bit infantile, but if it doesn't sincerely look like the list is moving much closer towards a premiership team by this time next year, then there's justifiable cause for concern.

 

[Childish Gambino]

Hope we can pinch it next year.

No reason why our 2-5 year players can't start playing their best football from next year.
Our list is close to reaching the age and games bracket to challenge.

We now have some serious units in the side in Watson, Hocking, Crameri, Hurley.

We have a pretty good developing midfield and guys like Melksham, Zaka and to a lesser extent Howlett should start coming into their own. Our midfield at the start of this year was winning nearly all key stats and dropped off once we started to get injuries and suspensions.

Maybe next year is one we get lucky on and then the following 5 years we have a Geelong like run.

Sort of agree with this.

We already have a solid core group and the 07,08 and 09 draft picks are starting to reach the 50+ game mark.

We need to build fitness and strength in the off season to be considered contenders though.

 

[Doss]

A couple of years of finals first. Plan should be to win a final, win another final, make top 4, make a preliminary final then win a premiership. Wouldn't mind seeing us skip over a couple of steps at all...

I wouldn't be worrying too much until we lose a few finals in a row. You never want to create a habit of losing finals.

Without wanting to go all negative, we already are on a decent losing streak in finals. 2004 v Geelong, 2009 v Adelaide and this year against Carlton. Though this falls well short of our six finals losses in a row between 1968 and 1982.

I was there for the Geelong and Carlton games too. It's been ten years since I've seen us win a final in the flesh- the '01 prelim against Hawthorn.

I voted for 2014 as I couldn't see us winning one before then. With any luck, we'll be hitting our peak then when sides like Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood are past their peak, and before the expansion franchises really hit their straps.

There are some parallels between us now and Geelong of around 2002...potentially..

 

[rawm]

Sort of agree with this.

We already have a solid core group and the 07,08 and 09 draft picks are starting to reach the 50+ game mark.

We need to build fitness and strength in the off season to be considered contenders though.

Agreed, the main issue is experience and maturity; both in game time and physical size. Teams in front of us atm in terms of future upside (next group to challenge) are:

Carlton
West Coast

Teams on par (or close) with us imo are:

Fremantle
Richmond
North Melbourne
Sydney

Id say we are minimum 5 years away from seriously competing, but as little as 3 for top 4.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

It might come back to bite me, but I'm not yet convinced by West Coast. They were kissed on the proverbial this year in terms of their injury run, and as good as their kids were they had a fixture suited to a wooden spooner, and had a slew of older premiership champeens fit and firing in Cox, Emberley, Kerr, Lynch, Glass, et cetera. Maybe they'll do it again next year, maybe they'll be like an Essendon '93 with the mix of veterans and kids, but I don't think they're a sure thing.

On the other hand, Carlton got to where they did with some key deficits. Sadly, they look very convincing for 2012, especially if they can plug a few holes in trade week.

I'd say that Freo are way ahead of us. Their list looks very good, and the freak injury run this year unearthed a few more quality Best 22 contenders for them in Mzungu, Clarke, and Lower. Hell, even Jack Anthony might work out as a KPD. They should be gunning for Top 4 next year, and that would have been the case even without the coaching change.

I'm not sure what to make of Sydney. I think, on average, we might be about where North are, although I like their midfield a bit more, and our bookends a bit more. I know that Richmond making the 8 is a popular prediction, but honestly, seeing is believing. Some great kids in Cotchin and Martin, but you'd have to wait and see how they shore up their ruck stocks and backline.

 

[ghostdog]

Agree re: West Coast. They could fall off as quickly as they reemerged with the number of veterans they have had return to form this year. That said, if they do fall off they won't fall far. I'd say we're on par with West Coast - competitive but not a serious challenger.

Sydney is in a similar situation as West Coast re: its mix of vets and youngsters. We're advantaged in that we haven't as many vets looking to retire in the near future. Dare I say a positive legacy of the Knights era.

 

[rawm]

It might come back to bite me, but I'm not yet convinced by West Coast. They were kissed on the proverbial this year in terms of their injury run, and as good as their kids were they had a fixture suited to a wooden spooner, and had a slew of older premiership champeens fit and firing in Cox, Emberley, Kerr, Lynch, Glass, et cetera. Maybe they'll do it again next year, maybe they'll be like an Essendon '93 with the mix of veterans and kids, but I don't think they're a sure thing.

On the other hand, Carlton got to where they did with some key deficits. Sadly, they look very convincing for 2012, especially if they can plug a few holes in trade week.

I'd say that Freo are way ahead of us. Their list looks very good, and the freak injury run this year unearthed a few more quality Best 22 contenders for them in Mzungu, Clarke, and Lower. Hell, even Jack Anthony might work out as a KPD. They should be gunning for Top 4 next year, and that would have been the case even without the coaching change.

I'm not sure what to make of Sydney. I think, on average, we might be about where North are, although I like their midfield a bit more, and our bookends a bit more. I know that Richmond making the 8 is a popular prediction, but honestly, seeing is believing. Some great kids in Cotchin and Martin, but you'd have to wait and see how they shore up their ruck stocks and backline.

Good summary, I agree with this. Id say within the next 5-6 years we will remain superior to Richmond, Melbourne, Saints, Port, Brisbane and Sydney but not sure if we can take the next step unless our midfield is bolstered by a high quality young mid (via trade) or a creative forward/utility a la P. Dangerfield.

 

[fishguts]

Until we win a final, I can't see it.