Opinion Expectations 2023

[ScragCity]

I have no confidence in Jones after having year out of the game

I don't think this is a huge deal. It's not unusual for players to miss a full season with severe injuries. Jones is in a better position than that because he's still been playing the game, just not at the highest level. A preseason with an AFL team will have him on equal footing with everyone else.

I'm not optimistic about this season for reasons mostly related to coaching, but I think Jones will go well.

 

[NthBondiDoggies]

I actually wonder if we might play an extra tall this year. With ToG% adjustments you really only average 6 (see 6.2 below) on the ground at a time (incl. ruck) if selecting 7 (incl. ruck).

The below splits out the TOG% for our main KPPs (ignoring Sweet, Khamis and O'Brien). I've used 2021 data for Bruce and Jones. Lobb probably overstated as I think his level at Fremantle was sub-optimal but required due to their forward structure, but offset by Jamarra who will increase ToG %this year.

View attachment 1574548

You can see in the scenario where Darcy is also selected you get up to genuinely averaging 7 talls on ground at all times. The tactical sub rule makes this a little more palatable as well in case you realise at half time you've gone in too tall. My main questions though are:

• There will definitely be teams where we only want to have 2 genuine KPDs and none of the options above can really play below their height. Perhaps in that scenario Bruce takes the Utility role splitting time between forward (when Lobb moves into the ruck) and the backline.
• Even with reasonable mobility, if you always have 3 genuine KPFs then can Bont spend meaningful minutes resting there? Of course you prefer him in the midfield but realistically he'll be banged up at stages through the season.

Would be interesting to compare against the contenders. It is about flexibility not height.

My expectation is that we can not play this many talls and be fast enough but having them means we can lose a few to injury and not be exposed.

Geelong:

Hawkins (198) Cameron (196) Rohan (190)

Stanley (200) Blicavs (198) and super mobile

Stewart (190) Kolodjashnij (193) DeKoning (204) Henry (192)

Don’t have much depth other than Ratugolea and Ceglar - kid in Conway.

Melbourne:

Brown (200) McDonald (195) Petty (197 players forward end of year) - Fritsch (mid forward) is highest goal scorer.

Gawn (209) Grundy (202)

Lever (195) May (193) Tomlinson (194) Smith (191)

Depth have Mitch Brown, kids Fraser Rosmon and Jacob Van Rooyen (did they lose Majak?)

BrisVegas

Daniher (201) Hipwood (203) Gunston (194)

Oscar McInerny (204)

Andrew (202) Payne (197) Gardiner (192) Adams (192)

Depth Fullarton (200) Fort (204) Lester (192)


Us:

Naughton (195) Bruce (198) JUH (197)

English (207) Lobb (207)

Jones (199) Keath (197) Gardner (197)

Depth: Darcy (209) Sweet (205) TOB (193) Raak (193) Busslinger (195)Buku (190)

Now that we have more height than a giraffe factory we are going to be attacked based on lack of mobility. Most of these have two giants and one or two very good mid talls.

For example when playing Geelong - who plays on Cameron and Rohan who are both very mobile but we have three who can play on Hawkins? Melbourne may not go with MacDonald and Petty and more likely to go with two talls and faster.

Never really had this problem before and what we have is increased quality and this is more important.

My expectation is that the mid talls TOB, Buku, Raak, Hannan and Cleary where we are weak will need to step up or we will be too slow.

Recruiting has gone for a lot of volume here but not really got what we need. And delisted Parker.

 

[Libbaaaa]

If we are locking in Richards and Dale to the half back flanks and possibly Duryea when fit where will Caleb play? Some of the training reports having him playing through the centre, he is smart enough to float around where needed but it will be a fascinating watch.

 

[dogwatch]

I love that we’re all feeling so positive about the coming season with some maturing élite talents (Marra, English, Darcy, Smith) the bright hope of new recruits, the reassurance of our older stars being physically sound for a change and a better age and positional balance across our list.

I hope that it delivers the expected improved performance and a higher ladder position.

But we have to remind ourselves that every club’s supporters feel the same glow of positivity at this time of year. Yes maybe even Eagles and Roos supporters. Fewer than half will see their teams play finals and not even a quarter will be cheering their team on in a preliminary final.

The signs are good for us but for me it’s less about the cattle and more about the coaching. I think our players have the ability to match it with the best, but most of the improvement we are looking for must come in how well the side is prepared by the coaching staff.

As Cerberus said elsewhere, so much of it is mental (and I would add tactical). The good news is there are signs of a real shift in Bevo’s approach and we’ve offloaded at least one negative influence on the team (Hunter). We just don’t know yet how well that will translate into improved performances. We probably won’t know until at least late April.

So I’m thinking we could end up anywhere between first and fourteenth by the H&A season’s end.

I’ll have a wild stab at it and say 6th.

And from there anything’s possible… as we well know!

 

[_Cerberus_]

We still do well in inside 50 totals and clearances. Contested ball has been up and down. But if we can get our defensive structures back to being amongst the best in the league, improve our forward efficiency, lessen the turn overs. And come through the first six weeks no worse than 4-2. I genuinely believe we can finally finish top four. Remember we were destined to win our first minor premiership in 2021 before the late season choke.

I am still worried about our late season fade outs. Have had a few over the years. The league is pretty balanced and up and down these days. Only Geelong I can call a sure thing for the top 4 at this stage. Sydney, Demons and Lions will be up there. Everyone else has questions.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Our first 6 weeks is a fairly tough draw (sans Saints), how we come out of that could be fairly season defining.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Our best recruit maybe a fully fit Bont just need a season free of injury and we could see his 2021 form.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Our best recruit maybe a fully fit Bont just need a season free of injury and we could see his 2021 form.

We owe him a Brownlow after stuffing up his chances with those putrid final 3 games, and making him ruck. Would love nothing more than for him to come out firing from game one, and maintain it all year. Always some niggle or quiet patch that keeps getting to him.

 

[Jeff 1975]

I'm glass half-empty about season 2023. Excluding expected improvement from individual players, I think our list got a lot worse.
I have no confidence in Jones after having year out of the game and I don't really think Lobb is a need (I want an actual ruckman, not 2 part-timers).

Losing Dunkley will be massive as he did a lot of the stuff the rest of our midfield refuses to do, so much grunt work will fall to Libba now.

And losing Hunter will hurt as well, for all his faults he was always picked when available and provided a hard running outlet and someone who would get back and take up space in defence. We struggled to find another winger last year, now we need 2 of them

We are like samon going up stream
I agree with all of it
A tap ruckman that wins the taps would be handy
Fast forwards – with leg speed also handy
Remenber Jones was badly knock-out too
Will Bevo play more that 6 talls?
Maybe we will become a power team – I am hoping
Get rid of the short guys at both ends
It is exciting time though – just had my 1st scotch
JUH on the wing?

 

[Jeff 1975]

I am feeling confidant
3rd scotch
Listing to Dire Straits
Go dogs

 

[Jeff 1975]

​

David Gilmour live at Pompeii --- WOW

 

[dogwatch]

I am feeling confidant
3rd scotch
Listing to Dire Straits
Go dogs

Haha … keeled over yet?

 

[Jeff 1975]

Haha … keeled over yet?

Hit the limit it's a done deal

 

[stefoid]

I don't think this is a huge deal. It's not unusual for players to miss a full season with severe injuries. Jones is in a better position than that because he's still been playing the game, just not at the highest level. A preseason with an AFL team will have him on equal footing with everyone else.

I'm not optimistic about this season for reasons mostly related to coaching, but I think Jones will go well.

Had to read this 3 times - detected no sarcasm or flame bait.

Does this mean that it wasnt a troll, or has Scrag perfected the art to the extent that can now troll by not not trolling

 

[stefoid]

If we are locking in Richards and Dale to the half back flanks and possibly Duryea when fit where will Caleb play? Some of the training reports having him playing through the centre, he is smart enough to float around where needed but it will be a fascinating watch.

There are a lot of ?? over the 2023 team.

Daniel, McLean, Westy, JJ, Bruce, Vanda, Williams

 

[ScragCity]

Ladies and Gents,

I truly believe we will win the flag this season. The signs are good. We know we have the cattle, but I'm really liking what I'm seeing of Bevo. He seems invigorated again. I can see that spark in his eye that was missing last year. No more of this "revolutionary" bullshit. This year the theme is winning. In 2021 the theme was to be ruthless. Remember the tidal wave? It got us to a Grand Final. Those are the type of themes we need; not this commie pinko crap from last year. No faffing about this year. No ideological crap. Win or die.

Yours sincerely,

Marcus Aurelius

 

[dergert]

Player to watch for mine next season is Bedendo. Showed great signs in his first few games but has done some great things during the match simulations so far this pre season.

Another one to keep an eye on is Raak.
He might even be a candidate for a wing position. He did spend a little bit of time there in some drills.

 

[Here we go dogs]

What’s Bendedo’s tank and forward pressure like?

 

[dergert]

What’s Bendedo’s tank and forward pressure like?

Can run all day.

Don't know about forward pressure. He's very aggressive/competitive. Always bumping and shoving his opponent.

 

[Planet Dogs]

My team lineup for the first game of 2023:

Bruce Jones Richards
Daniel Keith Dale
Baker McCrae Treloar
JJ Naughton Smith(B)
Weightman Mara Lobb

English Libber Bont

I/C: West Williams McLean Smith(R)

This is a 25% change vs the 2022 elimination final team.

To me it looks a lot stronger and better balanced.

I'm realistically expecting a top 6 finish in 2023.

 

[Dazb86]

So much of our fortune revolves around a fit and firing Bont. If he's in Brownlow contention we should push for top 4. If he's hampered by injury and out of form we'll be in that 11th-8th range again

 

[SonOfScray]

Top 4 and a flag that wags.

or

disastrous season, coach sacked around r16

 

[Libbaaaa]

So much of our fortune revolves around a fit and firing Bont. If he's in Brownlow contention we should push for top 4. If he's hampered by injury and out of form we'll be in that 11th-8th range again

This, if we are top 4 you can pretty much lock Bont into a Brownlow.

 

[BLACAE]

I agree Bont needs a big year but our destiny isn't just tied to him.

• Lobb and Marra need to pick up from Bruce.
• Libba needs to maintain form.
• Bruce, Keath and Jones need to click.
• our wings need to be consistent (Baker, Bedendo etc)

That being said, I have been playing AFL Evolution 2 and traded to get the current players we have and we win the premiership in 2023 and 2024.

2023
Brownlow - English
Coleman - Naughts (Marra was 3rd)
Norm Smith - Marra

2024
Brownlow - Bontempelli
Coleman - Marra (Naughts 2nd)
Norm Smith - English

So put money on people.



On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Libbaaaa]

I agree Bont needs a big year but our destiny isn't just tied to him.

• Lobb and Marra need to pick up from Bruce.
• Libba needs to maintain form.
• Bruce, Keath and Jones need to click.
• our wings need to be consistent (Baker, Bedendo etc)

That being said, I have been playing AFL Evolution 2 and traded to get the current players we have and we win the premiership in 2023 and 2024.

2023
Brownlow - English
Coleman - Naughts (Marra was 3rd)
Norm Smith - Marra

2024
Brownlow - Bontempelli
Coleman - Marra (Naughts 2nd)
Norm Smith - English

So put money on people.



On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

If Libba is heathy he will be one of our top performers. Need to find a balance of not running him into the ground though, Bont/Libba/Macca will take the majority of CBAs, need to give Libba a breather and and start pushing through some new blood at times.