Expectations for 2026

[Astro7]

Starcevich isn't a mid and Dev was delisted.

If that's who we're going to rely on, we'll be in trouble.

Mini has suggested Starcevich could play midfield and he's open to that.
So because a player is delisted (and depending on the reasons for delisting) he has no value or skills or an ability to improve?
I seriously doubt we'll be in trouble using them.

 

[Astro7]

Starcevich isn't really a midfielder and Dev played 6 games in two years.

I appreciate your bullishness but we aren't going to be mixing with the better midfields for a while yet.

Didn't suggest we were going to be mixing with the 'better' midfields? Said we'd improve on last season.
Did suggest Starc and Dev may be better than you give credit for, you're not allowing for any upside or improvement, nothing to do with being bullish.
Mini apparently thinks Starc can play midfield. (but what would he know?)

 

[Jootube]

Realistically I'd love us to jump out of the bottom 4.

Tigers
Bombers
Demons
North

I struggle to see how we possibly finish above 14th - the next tier of teams are Carlton, Sydney, Saints and Port - a clear step up.

 

[Forward Press]

Didn't suggest we were going to be mixing with the 'better' midfields? Said we'd improve on last season.
Did suggest Starc and Dev may be better than you give credit for, you're not allowing for any upside or improvement, nothing to do with being bullish.
Mini apparently thinks Starc can play midfield. (but what would he know?)

I also expect improvement, if only because it was such a low bar to clear in the first place. Completely smashed on clearances and contested ball all year.

I don't think however Starcevich and Robertson will move the needle significantly on that one.

 

[EagleEgo]

Top 8 in a 23 game season typically requires about 13 wins; last year it was 15. That's up around record territory improvement. This list is a bit old but here are the largest single-season improvements:

View attachment 2485922

Brisbane also improved by 11 wins from 2018 to 2019 and the Crows by 10 wins last year. 1997 Melbourne were probably the worst team on this list with 4 wins and a percentage around 60. 1998 Brisbane were also wooden spooners but with a significantly better percentage (75) in a season that included 5 wins and a draw.

So yeah I guess nothing is impossible but you are talking about extraordinary improvement in one year from a team that ranks among the worst teams in recent AFL history (and while there were injuries last year, I wouldn't say that it was anywhere close to 2022 or 2023 for the club).

I'll say 4-5 wins and a percentage in the high 60s, and much better vibes for the future with some good young players taking a step forward and a feeling like there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

WAFL team will also be much more competitive.

Depends on how you look at it. We can look at the 2026 competition as setting zero at the beginning (which is March). Each team has the same salary cap and some have a easier draw than the other. All 18 teams have similar opportunity to win if the players are playing with a winning goal in mind and with the correct attitudes.
There are quite a few problem we had in 2025 would not be repeated in 2026.
A lot of people use 2025 performance as the basis to predict 2026. Unfortunately, statistics has not worked that way.

 

[Astro7]

I also expect improvement, if only because it was such a low bar to clear in the first place. Completely smashed on clearances and contested ball all year.

I don't think however Starcevich and Robertson will move the needle significantly on that one.

Yeh, that was last year! A few things have happened since then.
Happy to disagree.

 

[stallon]

Just can't agree with this.

You're basing all of this on a lot of "If's" IMO.

From last year, we have 1 A grade mid, which is HR.
I agree, he should be better with another pre-season under his belt.

If Yeo doesn't stand up, we're relying on Hewett, who has shown promise and a couple of kids who have a long way to go and some delisted players.

Again, McCarthy may turn out alright.
That's even if he gets selected as a mid.

I think our defence is getting really strong.
The forward line is starting to look ok, especially for talls.

Our ruck and midfield is still the weakest in the comp IMO.

Nobody can justifiably say our midfield is a worry like last year
Its less of a worry with another pre-season into what was and still is a very young midfield

Nothing youve said comes close to disputing what I said.
McCarthy was a mid already towards the end of the year.

We were relying on Harley and Hewett all year, theyll both have an extra pre-season, therefore the midfield is less of a worry

To say "No one can justifiably say our midfield is a worry" is just ludicrous.

I did not say this at all, learn2read

I do say and word things deliberately, im not ******ed

 

[TwoStriders]

Main losses from the 2025 list (not counting de-listings) are Ryan, Allen, McGovern and Chesser.
Noting that last season Allen only played 12 games (and his performance was flaky at best), McGovern 6 games and Chesser 4. So Ryan the main out.

Waterman, Starcevich and Young are basically straight veteran additions. Tentatively, Yeo as well. McCarthy worth mentioning here too, he only played 10 games last season and has never had an AFL pre-season.

Then an influx of three first round draftees in Duursma, CDT, Lindsay. Plus, Bo missed most of the season to injury. Hopefully gets a healthy run at it in 2026.

On the balance of it all, we should be a much deeper and more talented side and hopefully return to the trajectory we were on in 2024.

So basically a bottom 4 side.
5 wins.

 

[Ilkka Sinisalo]

Depends on how you look at it. We can look at the 2026 competition as setting zero at the beginning (which is March). Each team has the same salary cap and some have a easier draw than the other. All 18 teams have similar opportunity to win if the players are playing with a winning goal in mind and with the correct attitudes.
There are quite a few problem we had in 2025 would not be repeated in 2026.
A lot of people use 2025 performance as the basis to predict 2026. Unfortunately, statistics has not worked that way.

Every team does start at zero and has the same salary cap, that's true. Unfortunately not every team has the same players, and our players are worse than most of the other teams. It's not like the Eagles were just bad in 2025, they have been bad for a few years now, and there's no reason to think that suddenly a team that has won 11 games in 4 years is ready to win 12 or more in a single season.

 

[KERRPOW]

finals

 

[EaglesOz]

Things are never as good or as bad as they seem. We were not a 1 win team this season going by probabilities. A few close games, a few games we just couldn't run out, some of the most important players to miss the whole year, etc. If there is a 100 things that can go wrong in a year, we copped 85 of them when the average is 50. In the balance of probabilities, we should have won 3-4 games, and i think this year was the one where we turned the corner.

It doesn't take much to go from losing to winning. I think we have improved our list significantly in terms of both talent and spread. We haven't added superstars, but i think we have plugged a lot of gaps that caused us to lose a lot of games last year. The mature midfielders, while not great will fill a gap for a few years while we build the list and recruit superior talent. But it means that instead of losing 70% of the contests we might lose 60%, and a major weakness turns into just a weakness, and on some days that will be enough to get us across the line.

The #1 improvement will come from the growth of our younger players, not the ones we brought in (minus Starcevich who is a very solid player). Lots of our players haven't made it to the magic 60+ game mark, but they will improve 10% on last year. Harley, Hough, Archer, Hewett, plus 10 others will have incremental improvement which is where the surge will come from over the next few years.

The #2 improvement will come from the game plan. Year 2, its now embedded and hopefully starting to have an impact. A good system/structure can overcome a lot of weaknesses, such as the ruck.

I predict 5 to 7 wins, percentage of 84%, with 2027 being 10+ wins. I also wouldn't be one bit surprised to see us win 8+ this year, because of the 100 things that can go wrong, if only 15 go wrong instead of 85, maybe we win more than we deserve.

Too many doomsayers in this thread for my liking, as if things will never get better.

 

[EagleEgo]

Every team does start at zero and has the same salary cap, that's true. Unfortunately not every team has the same players, and our players are worse than most of the other teams. It's not like the Eagles were just bad in 2025, they have been bad for a few years now, and there's no reason to think that suddenly a team that has won 11 games in 4 years is ready to win 12 or more in a single season.

I can't disagree with that (I can't agree either). I don't agree our players this coming 2026 are bad. What are you basing on?
Our team is no longer the same team 2/3/4 years ago.

 

[Rowan18]

Let's also not underestimate the improvement that comes from coaching. McQualter learnt a lot about the list and how to coach last year.

It's easy to forget that the team hardly had any structure in the first month or so but that signs of gameplan emerged strongly around mid year and was then tinkered with.

I think he has a lot of clarity on how he wants to play and who in the squad can do it (and who can't).

 

[EagleEgo]

Let's also not underestimate the improvement that comes from coaching. McQualter learnt a lot about the list and how to coach last year.

It's easy to forget that the team hardly had any structure in the first month or so but that signs of gameplan emerged strongly around mid year and was then tinkered with.

I think he has a lot of clarity on how he wants to play and who in the squad can do it (and who can't).

Also, we all know the reward of getting the spoon too. We don't want that negative motivation next year.

 

[Keys]

R1 v Gold Coast - trailed by 45 points at half time, lost by 87
R2 v Brisbane - led by 3 points at 3/4 time, lost by 19
R3 v Fremantle - trailed by 26 points at half time, lost by 38
R4 v GWS - trailed by 51 points at half time, lost by 81
R5 v Carlton - trailed by 29 points at half time, lost by 71
R6 v Essendon - led by 25 points at 18min mark of 3rd quarter, lost by 2
R7 v Hawthorn - trailed by 35 points at half time, lost by 50
R8 v Melbourne - led by 6 points at half time, lost by 32
R9 v Richmond - led by 1 point at 15min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 2
R10 v St Kilda - led all game, won by 28
R11 v Adelaide - trailed by 19 points at half time, lost by 66
R12 v Geelong - trailed by 6 points at 6min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 43
R13 v North - led by 18 points at 9min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 10
R14 v Carlton - trailed by 46 points at half time, lost by 34
R16 v Collingwood - trailed by 4 points at 26min of 3rd quarter, lost by 29
R17 v GWS - trailed by 35 points at half time, lost by 59
R18 v Port - led by 6 points at 3/4 time, lost by 26
R19 v Richmond - trailed by 9 points at half time, lost by 49
R20 v Fremantle - trailed by 22 points at half time, lost by 49
R21 v Melbourne - trailed by 22 points at half time, lost by 83
R22 v Adelaide - led by 10 points at 1min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 9
R23 v Bulldogs - trailed by 56 points at half time, lost by 94
R24 v Sydney - led by 7 points at half time, lost by 67

Overall, there were 10 games where we either led or were closer enough to challenge after half time in 10 games but could only hold on to win one of those. In four others we ultimately lost by under two goals

Whilst we didn’t concede a 100 point loss (94 points was our biggest loss), we didn’t concede lose 7 games by over 10 goals and another 6 by over 6 goals. Five other losses between 3 and 6 goals

We need to prevent blowouts - a couple are inevitable with a young team, but ideally it’s no more than three losses over 10 goals, with maybe no more than another six over 5 goals

Stay competitive deep into say 12 games but convert half of those into wins and keep the final margin in the others to 5 goals or less. Couple of other losses where we’re not really close enough to legitimately challenge but still keep the final margin under 30 points

That’s a 6 win season and a percentage probably between 75-85% which is on the hopeful side but still realistic

Right now, I’d take that - particularly if most of the improvement was driven by our under 23 bracket

Would still see us bottom 4, maybe bottom 2, but definitely prefer to not win another spoon

 

[amazingjoshy]

Things are never as good or as bad as they seem. We were not a 1 win team this season going by probabilities. A few close games, a few games we just couldn't run out, some of the most important players to miss the whole year, etc. If there is a 100 things that can go wrong in a year, we copped 85 of them when the average is 50. In the balance of probabilities, we should have won 3-4 games, and i think this year was the one where we turned the corner.

It doesn't take much to go from losing to winning. I think we have improved our list significantly in terms of both talent and spread. We haven't added superstars, but i think we have plugged a lot of gaps that caused us to lose a lot of games last year. The mature midfielders, while not great will fill a gap for a few years while we build the list and recruit superior talent. But it means that instead of losing 70% of the contests we might lose 60%, and a major weakness turns into just a weakness, and on some days that will be enough to get us across the line.

The #1 improvement will come from the growth of our younger players, not the ones we brought in (minus Starcevich who is a very solid player). Lots of our players haven't made it to the magic 60+ game mark, but they will improve 10% on last year. Harley, Hough, Archer, Hewett, plus 10 others will have incremental improvement which is where the surge will come from over the next few years.

The #2 improvement will come from the game plan. Year 2, its now embedded and hopefully starting to have an impact. A good system/structure can overcome a lot of weaknesses, such as the ruck.

I predict 5 to 7 wins, percentage of 84%, with 2027 being 10+ wins. I also wouldn't be one bit surprised to see us win 8+ this year, because of the 100 things that can go wrong, if only 15 go wrong instead of 85, maybe we win more than we deserve.

Too many doomsayers in this thread for my liking, as if things will never get better.

Dont necessarily disagree with this statement, but feel it was a bit of the mantra under Simmos later years and have heard Simmo and Schofield bust it out over 100 times between them in the media that if ive dont hear it again Ill be happy. Giving off a bit of a "she'll be right" attitude after the clubs just lost by 30 goals doesn't sit well with me tbh

Agree with the rest of the post, the big improvement needs to come from the young guys already on the list (Harley, Hewett, Hough, Ginbey) being able to run out games and bedding down the game plan.

Both the interviews with Jamie Maddocks and Phil Merriman have given me some sort of confidence the clubs on the right track.A lifting of the off field standards that had to happen, and it seems the clubs recognised that in the last year or 2 and put in place the right people to turn that around.

Never expect much from new draftees in terms of influencing more wins (Harley was/is a freak). But the more mature guys around the ball and more games from Waterman and Yeo and like others have said, i doubt we are a 1 win team again.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

R1 v Gold Coast - trailed by 45 points at half time, lost by 87
R2 v Brisbane - led by 3 points at 3/4 time, lost by 19
R3 v Fremantle - trailed by 26 points at half time, lost by 38
R4 v GWS - trailed by 51 points at half time, lost by 81
R5 v Carlton - trailed by 29 points at half time, lost by 71
R6 v Essendon - led by 25 points at 18min mark of 3rd quarter, lost by 2
R7 v Hawthorn - trailed by 35 points at half time, lost by 50
R8 v Melbourne - led by 6 points at half time, lost by 32
R9 v Richmond - led by 1 point at 15min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 2
R10 v St Kilda - led all game, won by 28
R11 v Adelaide - trailed by 19 points at half time, lost by 66
R12 v Geelong - trailed by 6 points at 6min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 43
R13 v North - led by 18 points at 9min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 10
R14 v Carlton - trailed by 46 points at half time, lost by 34
R16 v Collingwood - trailed by 4 points at 26min of 3rd quarter, lost by 29
R17 v GWS - trailed by 35 points at half time, lost by 59
R18 v Port - led by 6 points at 3/4 time, lost by 26
R19 v Richmond - trailed by 9 points at half time, lost by 49
R20 v Fremantle - trailed by 22 points at half time, lost by 49
R21 v Melbourne - trailed by 22 points at half time, lost by 83
R22 v Adelaide - led by 10 points at 1min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 9
R23 v Bulldogs - trailed by 56 points at half time, lost by 94
R24 v Sydney - led by 7 points at half time, lost by 67

Overall, there were 10 games where we either led or were closer enough to challenge after half time in 10 games but could only hold on to win one of those. In four others we ultimately lost by under two goals

Whilst we didn’t concede a 100 point loss (94 points was our biggest loss), we didn’t concede lose 7 games by over 10 goals and another 6 by over 6 goals. Five other losses between 3 and 6 goals

We need to prevent blowouts - a couple are inevitable with a young team, but ideally it’s no more than three losses over 10 goals, with maybe no more than another six over 5 goals

Stay competitive deep into say 12 games but convert half of those into wins and keep the final margin in the others to 5 goals or less. Couple of other losses where we’re not really close enough to legitimately challenge but still keep the final margin under 30 points

That’s a 6 win season and a percentage probably between 75-85% which is on the hopeful side but still realistic

Right now, I’d take that - particularly if most of the improvement was driven by our under 23 bracket

Would still see us bottom 4, maybe bottom 2, but definitely prefer to not win another spoon

Really should've been 5-6 wins.

2 factors there.

We rarely led a game by a decent amount, and the one we did we held on for a win. Scoreboard pressure is real.
And
It's the fade outs during/after 3/4 time. That has to stop.

 

[Seadog]

I have no expectations.
I only hope I get back to yelling at the tv cos the umpires/stupid players are trying to lose the game for us instead of slumping into a semi coma hoping we don't embarrass ourselves too much.

 

[FKASC]

If Yeo and Reid stay fit we’ll win 3-4

 

[Slothh]

R6 v Essendon - led by 25 points at 18min mark of 3rd quarter, lost by 2
R9 v Richmond - led by 1 point at 15min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 2
R13 v North - led by 18 points at 9min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 10

These are the ones made me want to throat punch my TV for sure. I feel if we just had a fit Yeo we would have maintained the lead in these games, especially the R13 game where we were missing McGovern and Waterman on top as well.

I think for any young side (especially for interstate teams) the first sign of turning it around is to re-establish a strong home ground advantage. So my hope/expectation is that we start winning our games at home against the other bottom of the ladder sides. 4 wins (3-5 wins give or take a 50/50 game).

 

[FKASC]

These are the ones made me want to throat punch my TV for sure. I feel if we just had a fit Yeo we would have maintained the lead in these games, especially the R13 game where we were missing McGovern and Waterman on top as well.

I think for any young side (especially for interstate teams) the first sign of turning it around is to re-establish a strong home ground advantage. So my hope/expectation is that we start winning our games at home against the other bottom of the ladder sides. 4 wins (3-5 wins give or take a 50/50 game).

If we just kicked straight we would have won the North game

 

[bzparkes]

If we just kicked straight we would have won the North game

Yeah, would've won by 50. That's what made it so frustrating.

 

[Rowan18]

R1 v Gold Coast - trailed by 45 points at half time, lost by 87
R2 v Brisbane - led by 3 points at 3/4 time, lost by 19
R3 v Fremantle - trailed by 26 points at half time, lost by 38
R4 v GWS - trailed by 51 points at half time, lost by 81
R5 v Carlton - trailed by 29 points at half time, lost by 71
R6 v Essendon - led by 25 points at 18min mark of 3rd quarter, lost by 2
R7 v Hawthorn - trailed by 35 points at half time, lost by 50
R8 v Melbourne - led by 6 points at half time, lost by 32
R9 v Richmond - led by 1 point at 15min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 2
R10 v St Kilda - led all game, won by 28
R11 v Adelaide - trailed by 19 points at half time, lost by 66
R12 v Geelong - trailed by 6 points at 6min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 43
R13 v North - led by 18 points at 9min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 10
R14 v Carlton - trailed by 46 points at half time, lost by 34
R16 v Collingwood - trailed by 4 points at 26min of 3rd quarter, lost by 29
R17 v GWS - trailed by 35 points at half time, lost by 59
R18 v Port - led by 6 points at 3/4 time, lost by 26
R19 v Richmond - trailed by 9 points at half time, lost by 49
R20 v Fremantle - trailed by 22 points at half time, lost by 49
R21 v Melbourne - trailed by 22 points at half time, lost by 83
R22 v Adelaide - led by 10 points at 1min mark of 4th quarter, lost by 9
R23 v Bulldogs - trailed by 56 points at half time, lost by 94
R24 v Sydney - led by 7 points at half time, lost by 67

Overall, there were 10 games where we either led or were closer enough to challenge after half time in 10 games but could only hold on to win one of those. In four others we ultimately lost by under two goals

Whilst we didn’t concede a 100 point loss (94 points was our biggest loss), we didn’t concede lose 7 games by over 10 goals and another 6 by over 6 goals. Five other losses between 3 and 6 goals

We need to prevent blowouts - a couple are inevitable with a young team, but ideally it’s no more than three losses over 10 goals, with maybe no more than another six over 5 goals

Stay competitive deep into say 12 games but convert half of those into wins and keep the final margin in the others to 5 goals or less. Couple of other losses where we’re not really close enough to legitimately challenge but still keep the final margin under 30 points

That’s a 6 win season and a percentage probably between 75-85% which is on the hopeful side but still realistic

Right now, I’d take that - particularly if most of the improvement was driven by our under 23 bracket

Would still see us bottom 4, maybe bottom 2, but definitely prefer to not win another spoon

Looking at this, par in 2025 would have been 5 wins, if most things had gone right, we'd be at around 8-10. Instead, most things went wrong and we got 1 win.

I think this year par will be around 8 wins (given natural improvement and new recruits), if everything goes right 10-12 could be on the table. 5 wins feels like it only happens if we get more injuries or coaches need another season to figure out what they're doing.

 

[Astro7]

Realistically I'd love us to jump out of the bottom 4.

Tigers
Bombers
Demons
North

I struggle to see how we possibly finish above 14th - the next tier of teams are Carlton, Sydney, Saints and Port - a clear step up.

A valid point...14th it is! A clear and reasonable improvement from 18th. Although going by last years ladder, 5 wins equates to 16th and 17th. Melbourne at 14th was 7 wins.

 

[Dark Sharks]

All i know is i EXPECT the club to not be bottom 2 next year.


That's a reasonable expectation.

After finishes of 17, 18, 16, 18.... over the past 4 seasons, you wouldn't want a fifth season to be as grim as that.

Let's not pretend that our 18th placed finishes have been like other teams on the bottom either. It's been historically bad, as we all know. Worst team of all time tag. So many records broken.


The ship simply has to turn around at some point. Enough board members, coaches, players etc etc have been sacked now.