Explanation for Break-evens work and Price Changes?

[#6 Mark Williams]

So basically you don't have a price +/- until you have played a minimum of 3 games.

So basically if you score over that or under your break-even you will go up or down in price, but how do you calculate how much they will go up by.

Also does the MN change during the season in SC like it does for DT?

If someone could provide an example it would be much appreciated as this would be very useful in terms of when to trade and when not to!

 

[Kid A]

From my calculations the magic number is around 4440 this year.

A player's last year's average * magic number = their approx starting price, with some discounts thrown in for prolonged injury.

So someone priced at around 440k will have averaged 100 last year.

Formula for value at any given round is, approximately, previous value * 0.74 or 0.75 + current value * 0.26 or 0.25.

A player's current value is the magic number * their rolling average for the last three games including the current week's games.

 

[#6 Mark Williams]

Hmm can you give an example of like a rookie and how they would go up or down depending on what they scored, perhaps Palmer if you could.

 

[Kid A]

Example. (approximate figures only. Someone else can supply the exact ratios/magic number, which I believe fluctuates a small amount during the season.)

Player A averaged 100.0 last year so this year his starting price is 440k.

First two rounds he scores 110 and 125.

This means that for this player to hold his overall 100 average in round 3, he needs to only score 300 - (110 + 125) which is 65. So he has a BE of 65.

Say he scores 85 instead. That means 320 points over 3 games = 107 average.

107 * 4440 = approx 475k.

So round 4's price will be 440k * 0.75 + 475k * 0.25 = 449k.

If in round 4 the player scores only 45, his last three scores will be 125, 85, 45, meaning his rolling average is 255/3 or 85. 449k * 0.75 + (0.25 * 85 * 4440) = 431k.

However the problem is that in round 5 the 125 from round 2 will drop off from the rolling average, meaning that the player will have only 85, 45 and (round 5 score) in his rolling averages. Clearly unless he scores a high number in round 5 his price is gonna drop sharply. At a 431k price, the player has to maintain an average of 431000/4440 = 97. Meaning that with an 85 and 45, player has to score a 161 to maintain that average. Not likely.

So if you want to trade a player out, do it the week before a high scoring game is about to disappear (like above). If you want to trade a player in, do it the week before a low scoring game is about to disappear.

here's an excel:

 

[#6 Mark Williams]

Example. (approximate figures only. Someone else can supply the exact ratios/magic number, which I believe fluctuates a small amount during the season.)

Player A averaged 100.0 last year so this year his starting price is 440k.

First two rounds he scores 110 and 125.

This means that for this player to hold his overall 100 average in round 3, he needs to only score 300 - (110 + 125) which is 65. So he has a BE of 65.

Say he scores 85 instead. That means 320 points over 3 games = 107 average.

107 * 4440 = approx 475k.

So round 4's price will be 440k * 0.75 + 475k * 0.25 = 449k.

If in round 4 the player scores only 45, his last three scores will be 125, 85, 45, meaning his rolling average is 255/3 or 85. 449k * 0.75 + (0.25 * 85 * 4440) = 431k.

However the problem is that in round 5 the 125 from round 2 will drop off from the rolling average, meaning that the player will have only 85, 45 and (round 5 score) in his rolling averages. Clearly unless he scores a high number in round 5 his price is gonna drop sharply. At a 431k price, the player has to maintain an average of 431000/4440 = 97. Meaning that with an 85 and 45, player has to score a 161 to maintain that average. Not likely.

So if you want to trade a player out, do it the week before a high scoring game is about to disappear (like above). If you want to trade a player in, do it the week before a low scoring game is about to disappear.

here's an excel:

How is the deflation in the magic number reflected in the break-even calculations? BTW thanks for the in-depth analysis.

 

[swansational05]

Is the magic number random or is it organized?

 

[54Dogs]

Some good questions and comments in here around the MN and price fluctuations. Probably one of the most important and relevant topics as we move into Rd 3 when player prices initially start to move. I'll start from the very basic and move through to advanced so people can take what they want from it.

1) How are prices and the salary cap set initially?

The DT salary cap is aligned directly to the AFL Collective Bargaining Agreement as follows:

2007 ($6,943,750 )
2008 ($7,431,250 )
2009 ($7,706,250 )
2010 ($7,962,500 )
2011 ($8,225,000 )

As Kid A mentioned earlier, player prices are set based on their average Points Per Game (ppg) last season multiplied by a fixed number (known here as the Magic Number). The Magic Number (MN) is set by Virtual Sports and is amended at the start of each year to ensure player prices have increased roughly in line with the salary cap. The Magic Number in 2008 was 4343 and this year is approx 4437. So the salary cap has gone up 3.5% this year and player prices have gone up 2.2% which is why it is a bit easier to get better players in this season.

So using Joel Bowden as an example his average last year was 98.4 so his starting price is as follows:

98.4 x 4437 = 436,600

Not always exact due to rounding but you get the idea.





2) How do player prices move

No players price moves until after they play their 3rd game. After this game the prices move in line with the following formula:

Initial price = MN x Average price last season

Recent Market Value = MN x Last 3 games average

New price = (0.75 x old price) + (0.25 x new price)

Champion Data confirmed this on page 357 of the 2007 prospectus so it is not in dispute. So without getting too detailed if Cox scored 100, 100, 100 in the first 3 rounds his price movement would be as follows:

Initial starting price = 473,200
Recent Market Value = 4437 x 100 = 443,700
New Price = (0.75 x 473,200) + (0.25 x 443,700) = 465,825

Hence Cox's price would drop to 465,825 after Rd 3. This figure would then become his starting price for the Rd 4 price movement and so it goes.

Most posters outside of new members would be aware of this in some shape or form. The players Break Even is simply the amount of points they have to score to not drop in price next week. It's important to also realise though that 1 bad game carries through for 3 weeks so this will continue to impact on their future breaks evens as well. Similar if they have an outstanding game the B/Es will remain low until it drops off. There are a few good calculators around which will help you with the B/Es as follows:


FFGenie: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=431006

DreamTeamTalk : http://dreamteamtalk.com/resources/

Too Serious : http://www.tooserious.com.au/




All 3 are good resources and will give you a rough B/E for your player but not 100% exact because this is not possible to know. The reason is as follows and it gets a bit technical :

Myself, Skank, Bax and Grimlock have been working through the pre-season on understanding why player prices through the first 6-8 rounds drop more than the formula above.

Firstly, the main thing to realise is that the Magic Number stays constant throughout the year and does not change.

The key to how much players will move is actually related to the Total Player Price Pool (TPP). This is the value of all players prices combined, approx $130 mill. This figure is vital as it will always remain constant.

So if in a round the players prices who went up in value went up by $5 mill and the players who went down went down a total of $3 mill, VS would adjust all players down by a % so that $4 mill went up and $4 mill went down, keeping the TPP the same. So what happens in the early rounds is that the the rookies prices increase so much and so quickly that the value of players going up far outweighs that of players going down. Hence prices early will always be adjusted down a % in the early rounds. Last year in Rd 3 after the formula was completed prices were adjusted down around 2.1% to bring the TPP back to level.



Hope this makes some sort of sense, the last bit is technical but more for anyone who is interested. So in summary the MN remains constant but prices will reduce more than the formula for the reasons stated.

 

[swansational05]

Well done 54Dogs, great post!
A big help as well.

 

[Papa Juggs]

Is there really a TPP? If so this is the first of heard about it and that would explain why the big guns seemed to drop in price last year after the first few rounds.

Glad I didn't buy any of the big 4 early.

 

[GoNickGill]

@ 54Dogs

With the amount of rookies and cheap priced players playing early this year I think that the TPP movement for players decreasing in price will no doubt be more severe this year.

 

[thebaxters]

^^ Astute observation GNG. I'd hazard a guess that as a result of:
a). More rookies getting games early (20 in Rd 1 alone; which equated to 25% of last years debuts), and
b). Some monster individual scores being posted (look how many are avg 100+!)

the adjustment to keep the TPP ceiling will see a lot of players drop more than we have seen previously; certainly more than the 10% we saw last year.

 

[54Dogs]

@ 54Dogs

With the amount of rookies and cheap priced players playing early this year I think that the TPP movement for players decreasing in price will no doubt be more severe this year.

No doubt the impact will be greater this year GNG. Chad L pulled some numbers and in comparison from Rd 1 this year to the early rounds last year found the following:

Round 1 2009

Total DT points: 25,150


Early rounds 2008

Round 4 - 3970 total DT points 24219
Round 5 - 3982 total DT points 24222
Round 6 - 3992 total DT points 24259
Round 7 - 4016 total DT points 23674
Round 8 - 3960 total DT points 24354
Round 9 - 3900 total DT points 24115


I haven't got Rd 1-3 from 2008 but as you can see round 1 this year was well up on every early round last year so the % reduction across the board will be greater. Add to this their lower starting prices due to more rookies debuting and this will impact even further.



Just to clarify that earlier post, whilst the MN stays constant, the % reduction across the board has the exact same impact as a reducing MN. In very simple terms, if you chose a player at the start of the year averaging 100 and they score 100 every single week their price will actually drop. The reduction in $ terms is greatest for premiums as it's a flat % of their salary.

 

[GoNickGill]

Not too worried about players like Goddard, Pavlich and Hodge dropping in value though because I intend to keep them for the year so unless they get injured or suspended for a long time their value is meaningless.

 

[54Dogs]

Not too worried about players like Goddard, Pavlich and Hodge dropping in value though because I intend to keep them for the year so unless they get injured or suspended for a long time their value is meaningless.

For your team absolutely. But what it does do is create an opportunity for other coaches to pick up your premium at 50-100K less meaning they have a distinct advantage. So whilst there's no direct impact indirectly it could hurt you.

 

[drd23]

Not too worried about players like Goddard, Pavlich and Hodge dropping in value though because I intend to keep them for the year so unless they get injured or suspended for a long time their value is meaningless.

Exactly what i was thinking. Its really only the mid-pricers cost that matters because pretty much every rookie (except Hill) will rise in price and premiums should be picked and never traded so the only worry with a price change for a premium is that they arent performing to where they should be

 

[GoNickGill]

You would have to be pretty unlucky to be sitting on all of those premiums though. Generally most people will have a chance to cash in on one or another or several throughout the year. Sometimes it just boils down to luck though (which I'm willing to accept) and hopefully a bit of research (a la Riewoldt having no preseason).

 

[54Dogs]

You would have to be pretty unlucky to be sitting on all of those premiums though. Generally most people will have a chance to cash in on one or another or several throughout the year. Sometimes it just boils down to luck though (which I'm willing to accept) and hopefully a bit of research (a la Riewoldt having no preseason).

Agreed GNG, what comes around goes around. For every dropping premium you have there is another you are eying off to pick up value on other coaches. Just need to generate enough cash early to maximise opportunities when they are available.

 

[Rod Stroker]

The players Break Even is simply the amount of points they have to score to not drop in price next week.

Cox's average last year was 107. He scored 99 in round 1 and 102 in round 2. I therefore assume his BE for this week to retain his current price is:
Last years ppg average x 3 minus round 1 score minus round 2 score = BE
107 x 3 - 99 - 100 = 122 required this week to BE and not move in price.
How to calculate his BE score for future rounds though? Would it still be referenced to last years ppg average? e.g
107 x 3 - 100 (rd 2 score) - 90 (assumed round 3 score) = 131 BE for round 4?
Or do you reference against the new rolling average from rounds 1-3? e.g
96 (assumed round 1-3 rolling average) x 3 - 100 (rd 2 score) - 90 (assumed round 3 score) = 98 BE for round 4?

 

[Saint KFC]

Not too worried about players like Goddard, Pavlich and Hodge dropping in value though because I intend to keep them for the year so unless they get injured or suspended for a long time their value is meaningless.

Although this is partly correct, you are losing value through choosing the wrong premiums at the start.

eg

Didak: $420,500

Round 1: 88
Round 2: 131
avg: 109.5
Price after Round 5
(assuming average of 109.5 for rounds 3-5): $437,102

Riewoldt: $441,200

Round 1: 39
Round 2: 93
avg: 66
Price after Round 5
(assuming average of 66 for rounds 3-5): $343,902


Scenario 1: Pick Didak from start, trade Riewoldt in Round 5
Total Cost: $764,402
Points Scored Rounds 1-5: 547.5

Scenario 2: Pick Riewoldt from start, trade Didak in Round 5
Total cost: $878,302
Points Scored Rounds 1-5: 330

Pretty basic stuff, but I do think that you lose value from the start by selecting the wrong premiums

 

[54Dogs]

Cox's average last year was 107. He scored 99 in round 1 and 102 in round 2. I therefore assume his BE for this week to retain his current price is:

Last years ppg average x 3 minus round 1 score minus round 2 score = BE
107 x 3 - 99 - 100 = 122 required this week to BE and not move in price.

Close. The calc is right but if more players score above their avaerge than below it over the first 3 rounds then everyone will be dragged back a % to keep the TPP constant. He may in fact need say 130 to B/E.



How to calculate his BE score for future rounds though? Would it still be referenced to last years ppg average? e.g
107 x 3 - 100 (rd 2 score) - 90 (assumed round 3 score) = 131 BE for round 4?
Or do you reference against the new rolling average from rounds 1-3? e.g
96 (assumed round 1-3 rolling average) x 3 - 100 (rd 2 score) - 90 (assumed round 3 score) = 98 BE for round 4?
After playing 3 games last years figures matter no more. His price next Monday becomes his new initial price and his rd 2-4 scores will form the amendment. So say his price adjusted to 465K this equates to a lead in average of

465,000 / 4437 = 104.8

so if he scored 100 / 100 in the next 2 games, highly simplified his B/E would be (104.8 x 3) - 100 - 100 = 114.

Again this would actually be a bit higher due to the TPP impact.

 

[GoNickGill]

@ Saint KFC

I never expected to have to "perfect picks" though, which is why I am not worried. Although I tried to minimise the likelihood of having players who would go down in price with thorough research. Lucky SO FAR with my premium forwards being S.Johnson, Deledio and Didak etc. Also I don't expect many else to have the "perfect" picks. Some lucky buggers probably will though.

 

[Elroy67]

But what it does do is create an opportunity for other coaches to pick up your premium at 50-100K less meaning they have a distinct advantage. So whilst there's no direct impact indirectly it could hurt you.

Don't forget to factor in the value of one if not two trades to pick up a player that could otherwise be acquired with a free trade.

 

[Saint KFC]

@ Saint KFC

I never expected to have to "perfect picks" though, which is why I am not worried. Although I tried to minimise the likelihood of having players who would go down in price with thorough research. Lucky SO FAR with my premium forwards being S.Johnson, Deledio and Didak etc. Also I don't expect many else to have the "perfect" picks. Some lucky buggers probably will though.

It really depends on what you define value as. I think that value is a players scoring output relative to his price, therefore premiums that score low in the beginning part of the season do not represent good value.

Keep in mind that my post was in response to your comment that the value of the keepers in your team that have had poor starts is meaningless. Even if you are thinking of value literally, ie the player's actual price, I still don't think that it's meaningless as a lowering value means that your player isn't scoring how you would expect for their price, ie - is not getting you many points, which is what DT is about.

 

[GoNickGill]

Definently agree on that point but there is not much that I can do about it now though because I aint going to trade them ... and I hope to benefit from this situation as much as possible as every other good DTer should.

 

[CRAWF 08]

sorry didnt know where to ask this ...

how much is a trade worth in dt$$$....

eg is it viable to trade player A- worth 200k for player B) worth 100k

presuming both players average the exact same , say av of 70??

after 8-10 rounds my guess would be player A would be worth 300k (plus 100k) and player B 250k (plus 150k) ... thats just a guess

so therefore in trade i pocket 100k initially and make an extra 50 k more on player B....

total profit from trade $150000

worth doing???