final 8

[Hallie_Swift]

Now that the season is 6 weeks in, and considering the closeness of the compition (forgetting geelong and st kilda at this stage), How many wins do you think will be needed to make the 8 this year. 12 wins got you in last year. This time last yr we were 2-4 and missed by two games.

 

[CrippsonBlue]

This time last yr we were 2-4 and missed by two games.

What were the total losing margins, what were the total winning margins? What did our percentage look like?

In those two games we won, was it a team effort, or was it more the result of a few brilliant individual efforts?

Throughout those 6 weeks, did we go in every week with genuine and justified confidence that we could come away with a win?

Could we afford to drop players such as Scotland last year if they were underdone/not performing?


The questions above are just some that highlight the vast difference in our position in the respective years. How many wins will it be to make finals this year? Maybe 12 again, it seems even at this stage but who knows

We are currently on track - until we get dangerously off track, then its too hard to hypothesize at this stage of the year.

(I have achieved a PB for amount of posts in a day - yay me...or maybe not lol)

 

[Alpha1]

We will finish between 7 - 10th. I have said it all along we aren't good enough yet to push for the top 6. And our losses have proved it, we still have passengers, our skills aren't good enough when we come up against average/good teams let alone great teams. We have a long, long way to go, but a few on here refuse to see that.

 

[Beloved]

We'll need 14 wins to cement our position in the Finals. For that to happen, we've got to take out the close ones that we can win. Our losses against Essendon and Hawthorn might be the difference between 10th and 6th.

 

[Jezza U Beauty]

We'll need 14 wins to cement our position in the Finals. For that to happen, we've got to take out the close ones that we can win. Our losses against Essendon and Hawthorn might be the difference between 10th and 6th.

EBIAC, check this out. This is the number of wins at the end of the minor round required to secure 4th position.

1994 - 13 wins.
1995 - 15 wins. (Essendon had 14 wins and 2 draws)
1996 - 15 wins.
1997 - 13 wins.
1998 - 14 wins.
1999 - 15 wins and a draw.
2000 - 14 wins.
2001 - 15 wins.
2002 - 13 wins.
2003 - 14 wins.
2004 - 15 wins.
2005 - 14 wins.
2006 - 14 wins.
2007 - 14 wins.

The bottom end of the ladder are not dead-set easybeats and will win a few games, so you'd imagine that 12 wins and decent percentage might be enough to make the 8, but 13 wins would just about make it certain.

 

[HBF]

Given the eveness of the competition, I would imagine 11 wins would get into the finals. Still think that we can make the top 6 - we don't play Hawthorn or the Doggies again, and we only play Geelong and St.Kilda once.

I have also ruled a line through 5 teams already this year. They are:

Melbourne
West Coast
Fremantle
Richmond
North Melbourne

Given Essendons draw over the next month, and the David Hille injury, I suspect they'll be out of touch over the next 4 weeks. Their next month is Hawthorn, Geelong, Richmond and St.Kilda.

I'm still not overly convinced about Adelaide and Sydney, and they'll both need to prove their worth as well. There's 8 teams already that I have named, and this already gets us into the 8.

When you consider we have 3 wins, and these are the games I would expect us to win over the remaining 16 weeks:

Round 7 v Fremantle (Gold Coast) 4 Wins
Round 8 v Collingwood (MCG) 5 Wins
Round 10 v West Coast (Etihad) 6 Wins
Round 13 v Essendon (MCG) 7 Wins
Round 14 v Fremantle (Subiaco) 8 Wins
Round 15 v Richmond (MCG) 9 Wins
Round 17 v Collingwood (MCG) 10 Wins
Round 18 v North Melbourne (Etihad) 11 Wins
Round 21 v Melbourne (Etihad) 12 Wins
Round 22 v Adelaide (Etihad) 13 Wins

This list doesn't include matches that we could win - Brisbane at the Gabba in round 11, St.Kilda at Etihad in round 12, and Port at AAMI in round 20.

If we want to be taken seriously as a football team this year, then we need to win most of these games, and there is no reason why we can't.

I suspect we'll end up winning 12-13 games, and finish somewhere around 5th spot.

 

[Jezza U Beauty]

HBF, I also like our chances against Adelaide at AAMI in R9 (we really should've beaten them here last year, and we've got stronger since while they've gone the other way), and I'll spew if we can't beat the swans in melbourne in R16.

 

[HBF]

HBF, I also like our chances against Adelaide at AAMI in R9 (we really should've beaten them here last year, and we've got stronger since while they've gone the other way), and I'll spew if we can't beat the swans in melbourne in R16.

So do I JUB. They really lack any sort of potency up forward, particularly with Burton out. Their backline is ok, but what they wouldn't do to have Bassett back in their team. I suppose their midfield is ok, without being really that great.

IMO, Carlton have improved a great deal since we last played them, and Adelaide haven't. All in all, it should be a good match - and hopefully we can get the chocolates there as well.

 

[fnm_just a man]

Must be something in the air tonight....I just spent a couple of hours going through each team and working out a ladder at the end of the split round and then I come on here and find this thread.

Anyway, I wasn't going to post it but seeing as it's kind of relevant to this thread here is how my ladder ended up after Rd 12:

Saints - 48
Cats - 48
Hawks - 36
Dogs - 32
Port - 28
Carlton - 28
Pies - 28
Adel - 24

Lions - 24
Swans - 20
Ess - 20
W.C - 12
N.M - 12
Freo -12
Rich - 8
Melb - 4

I undertook the exercise because I thought it would separate teams and give me a better idea of how confident I can be of Carlton making the 8/top 6/top 4 .... I was surprised at how tight it ended up. Carlton's run home is pretty good though so if we should be ok.

FYI, I had Carlton :

Freo - win
Coll - win
Adel - loss
W.C - win
Lions - win
Saints - loss

 

[cfc4life]

we will need to win interstate against one of the south australian teams as well as the wins already marked out if we want to finish top 8