Finals.... How realistic are our chances.

[NomadPie]

With a home game against the Dockers this week a win would have us sitting at 7 wins and 4 losses at the half way mark of the season. This made me have a close look at our run home to see how realistic our finals chances are. Going off last years ladder which was a similarly very even season 12 wins and a healthy % will see us make the 8. 13 wins would all but guarantee it. So assuming we beat the Dockers this week we will need 5 or 6 wins from our remaining 11 games.

Vs Fremantle @ MCG W

Vs Melbourne @ MCG L

Bye

Vs Carlton @ MCG W

Vs Gold Coast @ MS W

Vs Essendon @ MCG ?

Vs Eagles @ MCG ?

Vs North Melbourne @ MCG ?

Vs Richmond @ MCG L

Vs Sydney @ SCG ?

Vs Brisbane @ Ethiad W

Vs Port Adelaide @ MCG ?

Vs Fremantle @ Optus Stadium ?

I think the 2 games that I am not expecting to win are against a red hot Demons next week and against Richmond in Round 19. Thats not to say we cannot win those 2 games.

I think we have 4 games that we should go in with a lot of confidence in against Fremantle, Carlton, Gold Coast, and Brisbane. They are all must wins. Dropping any of these games makes our finals run very difficult.

Then we have 6 remaining matches that to me we are a good chance in but will have to play our best footy in.
Essendons change of form makes it a harder game than it looked a couple of weeks ago.

The Eagles are clearly the form side of the comp this season but getting them at the G should give us a good shot at knocking them off.

North Melbourne have been the surprise packet this season and are by no means easy beats.

Sydney at the SCG is always a tough game but we have a good record there so hopefully it will continue

Port Adelaide at the MCG another tough opponent, they are inconsistent this year and will be pushing for the last couple of spots in the 8 as well so this is a huge game.

Fremantle at Optus stadium. Always a tough trip out west this will be no different.

So to summarize if we win the 4 ''Must win'' games and lose the 2 against the tiges and dees that would leave us at 10 wins and 6 losses. needing 2 wins with a healthy % to make finals. Ideally 3 wins to make sure of it from the 6 other games.

We certainly look a more consistent outfit than in previous years and our forward line structures are finally working. With the possibility of Elliot, Aish, Moore all returning at points over the second half of the season we could improve a fair bit as well. The Finals are there to be made and with a reasonably nice draw coming up there are no excuses not making it TBH. The exciting thing is that if we win the games we should win and can win 5 of the 6 50/50 games (I wouldnt be betting on this outcome but its not impossible) then a top 4 finish is available.

Now its up to the club to keep delivering there current form and continue to improve.

Thoughts?

 

[didaksrightfoot]

Waaaaaaaaay too long to go for this kind of thread.

My gut tells me that we miss out again, but only by a game or two.
But theres so much footy still to be played.

 

[NomadPie]

Waaaaaaaaay too long to go for this kind of thread.

My gut tells me that we miss out again, but only by a game or two.
But theres so much footy still to be played.

Fair enough, I think the half way mark of the season is a good time to look into it. I'm not claiming we will or wont make it just looking at the games to come and see where other people think we are at..

 

[THATSGOLD]

Its going to feel strange buying finals tickets again. I wonder where I’ll be sitting and who I’ll end up next to.

 

[76woodenspooners]

Its going to feel strange buying finals tickets again. I wonder where I’ll be sitting and who I’ll end up next to.

Well, you won’t be sitting next to a Carlton supporter.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

We should make finals from here, if we don't it's time for a new coach.

 

[spartan-magpie]

We will only lose 3 mores games during The H&A. Go undefeated in finals and win the flag.

You heard it here first.

 

[Matt_352]

We should make finals from here, if we don't it's time for a new coach.

Yep Should beat Freo, Blues, Suns, Bombers, Lions at the very least which would put us on 11 wins. Which leave 3 wins tops needed from Dees, Eagles, Norf, Tigers, Swans, Port, Freo(A)

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Wouldnt want to be relying on winning in Perth in round 23 to make finals. If we are serious we should have locked up a spot with a round or two to go.

Simply have to win more than our share of the eight point games against direct top eight rivals....including Melbourne Freo (h, if not both) Essendon North Port etc. Then pinch a win along the way against a top four team (Richmond WC Sydney) . And of course good solid easy wins against the Suns Blues and Lions as percentage will be very important as well as the four points.

Win the next two (not easy given Melbournes form) and we have three very winnable games after that before we enter a tough run.

 

[jmac70]

I bought my finals tickets weeks ago.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Very realistic

 

[Soups]

I think we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves and live by the old cliche, let’s take it one week at a time. I would hate to end up being Melbourne last year.

 

[Matt_352]

I think we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves and live by the old cliche, let’s take it one week at a time. I would hate to end up being Melbourne last year.

Would love to be the ones to give them another wakeup call on Q bday

 

[Bad Horse]

we will just miss out and in the final analysis the round 1 shitshow will be why.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Should finish 7th or 8th

 

[good4footy]

If we have decent to good output in the 2nd half of the season from Elliott, Moore, Wells, Reid and Pendles, Sidey, Grundy and Treloar stay healthy, we will finish top 6.

 

[Help My Club]

Should finish 7th or 8th

100% agree

Finish 7th-8th. Why? Largely combination of 2 factors

(i) The team is playing improved footy.

(ii) An extraordinarily soft draw that just keeps giving - will be 7/4 after Freo. And look at the rest of the draw -it's a dream.

 

[partypie]

It will probably take us 13 wins to make it this year as there are still easily 12 clubs in the race for finals if essendon can keep their form turnaround going and GWS start getting more of their best 22 back (which will put more pressure the other teams vying for the 6th-8th spots - including us).

We simply don't put teams away in percentage boosting results, so we'll have to rely on pure wins as we're likely to be lagging behind in the percentage stakes and thus 13 wins will probably be our magic number.

Based on that we're need to win 3 of the next 4 and not take too much of a beating against Melbourne first, then we need to win 4 games out of Ess, WCE, NM, PA, Bris and Freo.

That's actually pretty tough as we'll be up against 4 other potential finalists (I'm including Essendon in that group as they'll be in the mix if they can keep their form from the past couple of weeks going), the Lions actually play Etihad (and us) pretty well and I'm not excited about having to beat the Dockers on their home patch in round 23 to make the eight (if it comes down to that).

Of course if we can sneak a win against one of Melbourne, Richmond or Sydney that would give us a lot more breathing room, but I'm pencilling those in as a loss at this point in time.

TL;DR version - it's going to be harder for us to make the 8 than some people people think, based on our exposed form and what's happening with the other 6 or 7 contenders for positions 6-8.

 

[Captivating]

I get :

3 certain wins - Carlton, Brisbane and GC
3 50:50's - Freo (twice) and Essendon
2 likely losses - North, Port
4 certain losses - Richmond, Melbourne, WCE, Sydney

somewhere between 9 and 11 wins I guess.

 

[Help My Club]

I get :

3 certain wins - Carlton, Brisbane and GC
3 50:50's - Freo (twice) and Essendon
2 likely losses - North, Port
4 certain losses - Richmond, Melbourne, WCE, Sydney

somewhere between 9 and 11 wins I guess.

I come up with 12-13 wins - gonna be tight.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

With our relatively easy draw we realistically get minimum 13 wins which should be enough to get into 8 th. Decent run with injuries for a change permitting!

 

[BPikkers]

we will just miss out and in the final analysis the round 1 shitshow will be why.

More disappointed with our performance against Geelong than Hawthorn. First game of the season can be an excuse. The game against the cats was not great.

 

[Horaceg]

We will only lose 3 mores games during The H&A. Go undefeated in finals and win the flag.

You heard it here first.

I’ve been saying something similar every year since the 80’s

 

[Horaceg]

I have a feeling we be playing finals, good luck to us, especially if Wells stays fit and Jamie can get back to near his best.

 

[doppleganger]

A few places that do end of season projections have us ending up on 13 wins

But Geelong, North, Adelaide also finishing on 13 wins

One those four teams will miss out.

Need to improve our percentage to be safe