Folau:Predictions

[Matchu]

So I am interested in what people think about Izzy and what, if anything, he will achieve in the AFL. Obviously he has the right body type for the game but how far can someone with such little experience in the game really go? I guess GWS would be banking on the likes of Tadgh Kennelly and Jim Stynes successfully being able to transition into the AFL.

The only true measuring stick there really is would be Karmichael Hunt and anyone who watched a Suns game this year would know how much Karmichael has to go before he can be considered a legitimate AFL player. Sheedy must have faith in him due to the fact that they basically yet to sign an actual forward. In the NEAFL it wasn't uncommon for Izzy to kick a bag so his accuracy is obviously quite good but I think something he will struggle with is the pace of the AFL compared to the NEAFL. Anyway my prediction for him next year would be to finish the season with 20 goals. What do you guys think? Any information you have on Izzy related to this topic please feel free to share.

 

[dlanod]

I'm predicting a goal or two a game on average, so about 20 goals would be what I'm thinking too. It's really just a learning curve and given he's likely to have the #1 defender hanging off him it'll be a steep one at that.

 

[westie88]

Expect him to finish in our top 2 goalkickers, will kick 30+ goals for the year.

 

[IanW]

He's being groomed to play full forward. He's six four, he can jump, he can catch, he's strong and he can kick straight.

He's had Stephen Silvagni as his personal position coach.

I believe BigFooty doesnt like links, so heres a quote from a 5 May 2011 article

"Carlton legend and Full-back of the Century Stephen Silvagni identified Folau's weakness at first sight.

He is working with Hand to bring out Folau's mongrel, teaching him to push, shove, scrag and agitate his opponent every second of the game, even when the ball is 150m away."

There is a great pic of SoS being the vicious scragging long-armed bugger that he was against Folau with the article - google 'silvagni folau' and you'll find it in perthnow.

As a full forward, he doesnt need to read, react and figure out what is going to happen, which was Hunt's weakness. He just needs to find space to run into when the ball is coming in, and then catch it and kick goals.

If all Folau achieves is to tie up the #1 defender week in week out, then it means Patton gets a much, much easier run.

That said, Im backing him for 35 goals.

 

[GiantForce]

Think he will kick around 30 goals in his first year. He will get one or two every game. He won't be a great KPF, but he will be a solid one.

TBH I think he will be more a decoy for Cameron and Patton, our future KPF stars. So even if Folau is crap, he still serves a purpose.

 

[Arwib]

He can run, he can jump, he's built like Adam Goodes, he seems to be able to kick, I think he'll be fine as a forward.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

i think the 30-35 goals predicted will be about right - it's a question of supply and the supply may be lacking for a while. big strong body - great hands and surprisingly accurate.

Here's the big call and there's a big "if" in there - if he stays in the game long term, in 6 or 7 years (age of 28/29ish) he'll win a colman. might not kick a hundred, probably won't kick a ton, but he's easily kick 75/80 which in a lot of years wins you the colman. I think he's that good and has that kind of potential. but it's going to take time.

but in the meantime - for a debut season, with midfield supply problems - 30-35 will be a very servicable return.

 

[Mountain Giant]

30 goals a season is probably about right. He will have a few games where he will completely disappear and then some where he will kick a few. The thing that will impact him is that he will need good midfielders to bring him into games with good distribution - I can't see our young midfield being so successful in 2012. From what I have seen is that he is not very good at reading the game and how to play without the ball. I can't see him creating goals for himself.

He is a surprisingly good kick - if he gets over his habit of catching high balls on his chest and becomes good with his hands, then he will get a few decent shots on goal per game, It is going to depend on who marks him.

It will be interesting if he gets a bit of a go in the ruck when the ball comes forward or when the other ruckman is resting. I don't remember if this ever happened at NEAFL. Doubt he is tall enough though.

 

[Chrono]

Here's the big call and there's a big "if" in there - if he stays in the game long term, in 6 or 7 years (age of 28/29ish) he'll win a colman. might not kick a hundred, probably won't kick a ton, but he's easily kick 75/80 which in a lot of years wins you the colman. I think he's that good and has that kind of potential. but it's going to take time.

I think you better put that 'if' in bolded caps and at maximum size. Playing with Patton is going to limit the output of both forwards and I can't see one getting 10 goals a game while the other gets zip, but hey I might be wrong! The Coleman won't matter if these two are kicking bags for the team.

 

[Fee Fi Folau Fum]

Folau is going to kick 20 goals, average 4 tackles a game, and spread the defense for our other tall forwards. If there was a tackle of the year award, my money is on Izzy.

 

[Grange Hermitage]

Ten games

 

[Grange Hermitage]

Maybe 12 to 14 but will be rested a lot

 

[IanW]

Maybe 12 to 14 but will be rested a lot

I think he'll be rested in the same way a traditional big full forward was "rested" ... by standing around in the goal square, waiting. With Patton and Folau, we arent going to be running one of those modern, new-fangled "forward presses". We're going to challenge the defense to stop the gorillas marking.

 

[GiantForce]

I think he'll be rested in the same way a traditional big full forward was "rested" ... by standing around in the goal square, waiting. With Patton and Folau, we arent going to be running one of those modern, new-fangled "forward presses". We're going to challenge the defense to stop the gorillas marking.

and Cameron...

 

[Fee Fi Folau Fum]

and Setanta...

 

[UrLordUnbeliever]

I really can't wait to find out how he goes!
Kicking 30+ goals a year at AFL level is pretty tough, and while Folau is def going to be a big presence in the forward line, I can't see him being their main avenue to goal.. And without apparent elite midfielders it's not looking like any forward will have quality supply either..

A good question though is who is going to take the opponent's #1 defender? Folau - never played at the highest level before, but is very powerful, reportedly a good kick, and not the best mark of the 3 key forwards? O'Halpin, Played at the highest level alongside some big key forwards, has an instict for the goals and can be a handful in a marking contest.. But will he even play as a forward? Or say Patton, the #1 draft pick?

As for comparisons with Special K, I think Folau will have an easier time, as he's spent the whole of 2011 training for AFL and getting his body right, where Hunt only had a handful of practice games before the 2011 season, coming straight from two Rugby seasons with hardly a break.. Hunt's role also demands more athleticism and footy instincts than Folau's position as a fey forward.

 

[IanW]

In a way, it doesnt matter who takes the #1 forward, because the size of both Patton and Folau creates matchup problems.

If all Izzy ever does is pin down the oppositions #1 backman, then he is well and truly earning his spot on the team.

 

[Snoop Dog]

I think he will take time to get the tempo but as you say he just needs to compete and ensure the backs don't go thru him. What I don't doubt is some backs will be sore after his knees go into a few of them. Sheeds reckons his hands are as good as anyones below the knees and his kicking has improved a lot. With some more work over preseason he should be a ripper as has come back to club 6kg lighter been told.

 

[Hawkthorn33]

As for comparisons with Special K, I think Folau will have an easier time, as he's spent the whole of 2011 training for AFL and getting his body right, where Hunt only had a handful of practice games before the 2011 season, coming straight from two Rugby seasons with hardly a break.. Hunt's role also demands more athleticism and footy instincts than Folau's position as a fey forward.

I believe that Karmichael actually played the whole 2010 season in the VFL, after playing rugby union in the summer of 09/10' in France.

 

[Baby_Jenks]

By all acounts he's a decent set shot, the question is "will he be able to out mark the AFL level fullbacks?" I've yet to see or hear anything about his snap shots at goal or his handballing ability.
If he plays 20 games, 20 goals would be a fair return. 35 as some have predicted is beyond him in my opinion but that would be an outstanding result.

 

[IanW]

"Folau kicked a goal, had several goal assists and delivered some pinpoint foot passes in heavy traffic during the Giants' 22.17 (149) to 7.10 (52) loss to the Suns reserves in the curtain-raiser at Metricon Stadium."

http://www.goldcoast.com.au/article/2011/08/20/342725_gold-coast-afl.html

 

[dlanod]

I believe that Karmichael actually played the whole 2010 season in the VFL, after playing rugby union in the summer of 09/10' in France.

Nope, his first game was against Coburg in Round 9 about three weeks after he played in the 2010 Heineken Cup final for Biarritz.

 

[Arwib]

Folau also kicked a couple goals on Staker when the Giants beat the Lions reserves last year in July.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sp...shootout-hots-up/story-e6frexwr-1226095935061

"He looks to have improved a lot from the first time we played him," Lions reserves coach Nathan Clarke said. "While it was not the greatest four-goal performance I have seen, he is being very well coached and seems to be picking up some of the finer points of the game.

"When we first played him, he was in defence and looked all at sea to the point of being almost disinterested when some of our forwards got a big break on him. But he looked much better the other day.

"He kicked a couple of goals on Brent Staker and did some things you might not have expected from someone of such limited experience.

"At one point, when he got the ball, you would have expected him just to go for the long bomb, but he went laterally with a 25m bullet pass which was the right play.

"That was the play that I remembered the most because it showed he is starting to read the game well."

 

[dlanod]

To quote my summary of how he played that day:

Folau was fairly well covered but it's great to see how good he is at ground level - two of his goals were from snaps after collecting off the ground. It bodes well for his agility and ball skills. I don't think any were from marks on a lead, though one was from a very short kick that he just happened to be standing under. I missed the lead up to his first in the fourth quarter though.

He never really beat Staker on the lead, but he took advantage of his opportunities regardless of how they presented themselves. He could pick up a goal or two a game in the AFL the same way.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

I think (assuming he plays 18+ games) that 20 goals would be minimum expectations, 25 would be nice, and 30+ would be great for him.

Fact is that GWS aren't going to score a lot of goals, especially early on, as they adjust to the pace of the game.