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Folau:Predictions

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Happy Mastenator said:
I think (assuming he plays 18+ games) that 20 goals would be minimum expectations, 25 would be nice, and 30+ would be great for him.

Fact is that GWS aren't going to score a lot of goals, especially early on, as they adjust to the pace of the game.
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I think you make a good point. GWS are going to be low scores for most of the season. To put this in perspective, GC's leading goalscorer was Danny Stanley with 20. If Folau was to score 20 goals that would be a great effort.
 
calyam said:
I think you make a good point. GWS are going to be low scores for most of the season. To put this in perspective, GC's leading goalscorer was Danny Stanley with 20. If Folau was to score 20 goals that would be a great effort.
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Part of this was - literally - the luck of the draw, but in building their list GC emphasised their defense far more than the attacking part of the ground.

To me, GC always seemed to have a makeshift forward line, while with GWS its the forward line that is at least looking like a forward line, while we're going 'hmmm, hope we can get some sort of back six to gel'.
 
IanW said:
Part of this was - literally - the luck of the draw, but in building their list GC emphasised their defense far more than the attacking part of the ground.

To me, GC always seemed to have a makeshift forward line, while with GWS its the forward line that is at least looking like a forward line, while we're going 'hmmm, hope we can get some sort of back six to gel'.
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Agree, but any advantage GWS may have in forward structure will be negated by the fact that GC had a superior midfield which created more chances, compared to what GWS will create.

Still 20 is the minimum expectation for Folau. Unless he misses a bunch of games will be disappointed if he doesn't hit that.
 
There`s some pretty big calls in here about Folau kicking 30-35 goals in his first season.

This year Brad Green kicked 37 and Nick Riewoldt kicked 36, Aaron Edwards 36, Kurt Tippett 31 and Chris Dawes 27.



Considering Folau is a newcomer to AFL and will be playing in a team that will be lucky to win a handful of games, I think it`s a massive call to say he will kick 30-35 goals


All the best to him and I would like to see him do well, but I`d be surprised if he kicks more than 15 for the year.
 

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mauricerioli said:
There`s some pretty big calls in here about Folau kicking 30-35 goals in his first season.

This year Brad Green kicked 37 and Nick Riewoldt kicked 36, Aaron Edwards 36, Kurt Tippett 31 and Chris Dawes 27.

Considering Folau is a newcomer to AFL and will be playing in a team that will be lucky to win a handful of games, I think it`s a massive call to say he will kick 30-35 goals

All the best to him and I would like to see him do well, but I`d be surprised if he kicks more than 15 for the year.
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Karmichael Hunt kicked more goals than a LOT of AFL players in 2011..

Folau should be close to N. Riewoldt's results.. I know Reiwoldt has been in the system a lot longer, and does get 2-3 'freebie' shots on goal a game, but he, like Folau, is an athlete first and a footballer second..
 
IanW said:
Part of this was - literally - the luck of the draw, but in building their list GC emphasised their defense far more than the attacking part of the ground.

To me, GC always seemed to have a makeshift forward line, while with GWS its the forward line that is at least looking like a forward line, while we're going 'hmmm, hope we can get some sort of back six to gel'.
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I thought the Suns' approach was good, TBH.. Getting quality defenders and the best mids you can is going to be the most effective ways of stopping the damage you can get..
It's not like they neglected their forward line either.. NAblett and Dixon, if either had come on and shown their abilities the Suns would have had an effective forward line too, just the pieces didn't fall into place in '11.. Matera and Bennell look as dangerous as small forwards can get.

The Giants' back 6 may end up OK, few people here recognise they already had more than one capable defender on their list from the NEAFL season, and several of their experienced players, including O'Halpin, can slot easily into defence as well.

Still we will know a lot more when the NAB Cup comes, can't wait!
 
I reckon he's nearly there, in relation to his physique. His legs were still pretty thick when I saw him in the reserves on the GC late in the year, and I don't know how much he's changed since then, but he's still made some great progress.

I wonder how the AFL training/games/preseason would affect him if he returned to the NRL. Surely beneficial, you'd have to think.
 
If you look at the group of Sumich, Dunstall, Fevola, Carey, Lloyd, Lockett, Lynch and Franklin they averaged 16 games in their first season and 1.7 goals per game.

Lets say Izzy plays 16 games (a big if) and has 50% of the output of these champions then I say he has had a successful debut season. That would give him about 14 goals.
 
rioli is a hack said:
If you look at the group of Sumich, Dunstall, Fevola, Carey, Lloyd, Lockett, Lynch and Franklin they averaged 16 games in their first season and 1.7 goals per game.

Lets say Izzy plays 16 games (a big if) and has 50% of the output of these champions then I say he has had a successful debut season. That would give him about 14 goals.
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Slightly different, they were coming into the game as under 20 year olds, Folau is fully matured physcially.
 
Happy Mastenator said:
Slightly different, they were coming into the game as under 20 year olds, Folau is fully matured physcially.
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But they also came in with years of AFL experience. Folau has just over one now.
 
Happy Mastenator said:
Slightly different, they were coming into the game as under 20 year olds, Folau is fully matured physcially.
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dlanod said:
But they also came in with years of AFL experience. Folau has just over one now.
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I've seen some people giving him as amany as 40 goals - which would put him in the top 15 in the comp. I hope this is true as it will mean he will be on track to be one of the greatest forwards to ever play the game - unlikely.

In the cold light of reality he will be playing on seasoned AFL defenders and likely to be receiving less than silver service from an inexperienced midfield. He'll also likely be the 3rd target of choice behind Patton and O'hailpin. Therefore an expectation of 10-20 goals would be a satisfactory number.

Any advance of 20 goals would be truly exceptional from a project player.
 

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rioli is a hack said:
In the cold light of reality he will be playing on seasoned AFL defenders and likely to be receiving less than silver service from an inexperienced midfield. He'll also likely be the 3rd target of choice behind Patton and O'hailpin. Therefore an expectation of 10-20 goals would be a satisfactory number.

Any advance of 20 goals would be truly exceptional from a project player.
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One of the issues is Folau's combination of height, leap and acceleration make him a difficult matchup. Defenses are going to need to decide who they put the best defender on, which is going to do a lot to determine which of Folau or Patton gets the most opportunities (I expect O'hailpin to be mostly playing in defense or CHF btw).

I'd be perfectly happy if Folau was mostly used as a decoy, if he does that role well enough and GWS kick a number of decent, potentially game-winning scores.
 
rioli is a hack said:
If you look at the group of Sumich, Dunstall, Fevola, Carey, Lloyd, Lockett, Lynch and Franklin they averaged 16 games in their first season and 1.7 goals per game.

Lets say Izzy plays 16 games (a big if) and has 50% of the output of these champions then I say he has had a successful debut season. That would give him about 14 goals.
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That's a pretty disparate group you've got there. Carey played four games in his first season for no goals, while someone like Lloyd and Lockett had just turned 17. Both Dunstall and Sumich were relatively mature when they debuted. So I'm not sure how valid this comparison is.
 
calyam said:
That's a pretty disparate group you've got there. Carey played four games in his first season for no goals, while someone like Lloyd and Lockett had just turned 17. Both Dunstall and Sumich were relatively mature when they debuted. So I'm not sure how valid this comparison is.
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To make the stats more realistic I went for the first year in which they played at least 10 games (in Lloyd's case that was in his 2nd year when he played 11 games). I also didn't include Modra who kicked over 120 goals in the first year he played more than 10 games.

There is nothing particularly scientific about the analysis, just trying to make the point that expectations need to be tempered for Izzy.

I hope, as much as anyone, that Izzy has a blinder and kicks 50. But the realist in me knows he is a 50/50 proposition at best to make any impact at all and if he kicks 10-20 goals that's at least a pass mark.
 
Yeah, definitely agree. 10 is the pass mark I reckon (keep in mind they're not going to be scoring a heap and Patton might be the #1 target), 15 is promising, 20+ is outstanding.
 
Given the immense jump in standard from what he was playing in last season to what he is going to face this season, I think if you can get 15 senior games out of him and 10 goals that for me would be a pass mark.

Like K.Hunt, there will be times next season he will drop back to the reserves for a week or 2 to work on areas of his game, etc and I also expect he will join in the obvious rotation system GWS will have to implement to try and get their young guys through the long season as the Suns did last season. Otherwise your first year players, including Folau, will simply burn out before seasons end.
 
I hope you guys are getting your footy program and facilities working smoothly as every year the game is leaping forward in game style, science, recovery etc.

Really hope Folau does well... but if he doesn't it wont be his fault... I think he'd be a fantastic project player at any other club. His issue will be the delivery and support from his team mates who are just going to be so overwhelmed next year.

It's just plain physically impossible for them to compete with the strategy of youth they're going with. If by some freakish reason they manage to compete and win a single game I'll be overjoyed.
 

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Let me start by saying that I hope he makes it, an athlete like Izzy would be great for our game.

But...................... to suggest a 20-40 goal season is likely,(this seems to be the majority) is just crazy talk. I think, assuming he plays most games, you will be lucky to get 12 goals for the year, thats a goal or 2 every other week. He will be kept scoreless on multiple occasions which is to be expected. He will also spend alot of time on the pine while he adjusts to AFL level.

I saw comparison to St Nick on the last page, I mean WTF??? Nick is an elite runner, elite mark and played for years.

Dont get too over hyped in his first season as you will only be disappointed. He is the most exciting project player in my time, but he is exactly that, a PROJECT!
 
Morro said:
Dont get too over hyped in his first season as you will only be disappointed. He is the most exciting project player in my time, but he is exactly that, a PROJECT!
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I have a feeling people (like me) are thinking "Everyone thinks he will be rubbish but you might be surprised" and being a bit alternative by suggesting he will be a good forward. The funny thing is, it has become the standard view - hence a bit hyped!

Comparing his form in the NEAFL to Swans players in the Reserves playing in the ACT over the past few years, I would say he is deserving of playing in the seniors.
 
I think he'll play 15-20 games and he'll kick between 15-20 goals.
I think Izzy will have a better first up year than what K.Hunt did, and will play a major role in helping shape the GWS forward set up along with Setanta, Patton when he's back, and Cornes.
 
In the NEAFL 2011 season he kick 31 in 16 but played the first 3 or 4 games in defense so as a forward averaged better than 2 goals per game.

Obviously its a big step up to AFL level but Folau is still learning the game so has significant room for development and has shown in his rugby league career he can do things most others at an elite level can't.

I don't think its beyond him to average 2 goals per game even in his first AFL season. 1 per game is more likely and 0.5 per game a bare pass.
 

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