Strategy Forward Line Potential

[Eddie1994]

You're getting carried away now.

On performance, possibly, on untapped potential I dont think so. The kid has skills, is clutch (sunk the Hawks a few times), almost reminds me of a young Peter Riccardi.

 

[Partridge]

Obviuosly you don't expect everyone to do an Ollie Wines, but wouldnt it be nice. I think its time to start giving young kids solid game time, resting a few of the older brigade (like we did so well with Ottens in the premiership years.), maybe 5-10 games this year, ofc only in form warrants.

It would be absolutely fantastic. I'm just a little more conservative.

To me, we've got two absolutely gun clearance players - Selwood and Johnson. Next we've got three coming up who I think will all get better next year - Guthrie, Caddy and Horlin-Smith. So to me no one player needs to become an instant superstar (although obviously it would be nice); we just need continued improvement from all of them.

 

[Eddie1994]

It would be absolutely fantastic. I'm just a little more conservative.

To me, we've got two absolutely gun clearance players - Selwood and Johnson. Next we've got three coming up who I think will all get better next year - Guthrie, Caddy and Horlin-Smith. So to me no one player needs to become an instant superstar (although obviously it would be nice); we just need continued improvement from all of them.

I think Caddy, at brute clearance work, rates second at the Cats behind Selwood, Johnson is an all-round better player, and uses his freakish skills to give himself time in traffic, hence gaining clearances, however the way Caddy plays is closer to Selwood, in the hard as nails, go in like a bull type style. Johnson seems to be slowing down, and his body can't react as quick as he would like. Still an absolute gun, and will have a ripper 2015, just not so much in the guts, maybe as a user of the footy, waiting on the outside, because his skills are sublime, and he can put an opponent in space where before there wasn't any, but just based on clearance and hard ball work, I think Caddy might be pushing him.

 

[Partridge]

I think Caddy, at brute clearance work, rates second at the Cats behind Selwood, Johnson is an all-round better player, and uses his freakish skills to give himself time in traffic, hence gaining clearances, however the way Caddy plays is closer to Selwood, in the hard as nails, go in like a bull type style. Johnson seems to be slowing down, and his body can't react as quick as he would like. Still an absolute gun, and will have a ripper 2015, just not so much in the guts, maybe as a user of the footy, waiting on the outside, because his skills are sublime, and he can put an opponent in space where before there wasn't any, but just based on clearance and hard ball work, I think Caddy might be pushing him.

He might catch him in 2015, but he's not there yet. Good thing is he's getting better all the time. Selwood wins over 6 a game; he's way above everyone. Guthrie is the surprise one for me, it's not really touted as a big part of his game but he was only behind Selwood, Johnson and Christensen last year.

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/tr-geelong-cats?year=2014&rt=TA&st=CL

 

[Eudey]

I honestly think the only line you could pick with almost 100% certainty is our back line.

Lonners, Mackie, Rivers, Taylor, Enright, Kelly and Bews

Our defense would, you'd think, definitely consist 6 of these 7

Now the midfield and forward lines are a much larger discussion. With much more players fighting for spots.

You could have any of these players:

Selwood, Caddy, GHS, Guthrie, SJ, Stokes, Duncan, Bartel, Hartman

Running through the middle with any 2 of Motlop, Murdoch or Thurlow, taking the wings

This is also not including Blease and Newton, who the club has very much been linked to in the coming DFA period.

Then there's another handful of players possible fighting for the ruck spot:

Stanley, HMac, Simpson, Clarke and Vardy

With Blitz playing in any of the above positions (I personally think he'll play back next year)


The forward line is just as much of a tussle, with:

Hawk, Clarke, Stanley, Kerstan, Walker, McCarthy, Motlop, Murdoch, Bartel, Vardy and Hartman

All trying to jam into 6 positions


And with all the players named above, that's not including the 2 long term injured in Cowan and Menzel, as well as the rarely seen (to this point) Lang



All I know is it's going to be a very interesting preseason and I can't wait to see what our best 22 holds

Bring on the season now I say!


Edit: Why do I have the feeling I've forgot someone important? Ha. Ah well

 

[Lana]

He might catch him in 2015, but he's not there yet. Good thing is he's getting better all the time. Selwood wins over 6 a game; he's way above everyone. Guthrie is the surprise one for me, it's not really touted as a big part of his game but he was only behind Selwood, Johnson and Christensen last year.

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/tr-geelong-cats?year=2014&rt=TA&st=CL

These numbers are skewed against payers like Caddy and Horlin-Smith who were the sub multiple times.

Average Clearances when not the sub/ subbed off
Caddy 3.2
Horlin-Smith 3.9
Guthrie 3.3
Duncan 2.1

 

[Eddie1994]

Interesting watch, seemed to hold his own as a defender against the younger guys in Cameron and Patton, yet Cloke dominated. And looked a very likely type up forward and around the ground. Have a watch and let me know if you think forward, back or ruck? Looks like he can handle himself in the ruck, although from this vision can go missing every now and then.

 

[Shai]

A - Seen him playing on Goodes and a win, then chasing down Jack, huge effort.

Pace against Bombers and some good accuracy

Nice hitouts, marks and defensive work against Tiges

Nice hitouts, marks and defensive work against Giants (beat Patton & Cameron @ least once
- hey, it's a highlights, what d'ya expect), team player

Goal against the Hawks (love him already, fact that he is also a horse person is a bonus)

 

[Eddie1994]

A - Seen him playing on Goodes and a win, then chasing down Jack, huge effort.

Pace against Bombers and some good accuracy

Nice hitouts, marks and defensive work against Tiges

Nice hitouts, marks and defensive work against Giants (beat Patton & Cameron @ least once
- hey, it's a highlights, what d'ya expect), team player

Goal against the Hawks (love him already, fact that he is also a horse person is a bonus)

So ruck, back or forward? Maybe a combo of them all? Looks more than handy

 

[Shai]

So ruck, back or forward? Maybe a combo of them all? Looks more than handy

Ok, sorta knew I was sitting on the fence but he does show glimpses in all those possies

I believe we already have a gr8 defence, so 4 mine he should play ruck/spell forward next season, regardless I'm glad he's now a Cats team member.

 

[Eddie1994]

Ok, sorta knew I was sitting on the fence but he does show glimpses in all those possies

I believe we already have a gr8 defence, so 4 mine he should play ruck/spell forward next season, regardless I'm glad he's now a Cats team member.

No arguements there, however it is really getting old, Lonergan, Rivers, Mackie, Enright, all gone in the next 1-3 years. Might not be a bad idea to swing Harry fwd, give Stanley some experience down there? Just throwing ideads out there ATM

 

[Shai]

No arguements there, however it is really getting old, Lonergan, Rivers, Mackie, Enright, all gone in the next 1-3 years. Might not be a bad idea to swing Harry fwd, give Stanley some experience down there? Just throwing ideads out there ATM

HT is so valuable right where he is, I don't like him anywhere else and we now have multiple options up forward.

Of the older players you name (and 1 you didn't name, Kelly) Riv is the only 1 who has said his body is a day to day proposition , do we not have Kolo, Bews, Toohey, Blitz? as prospects next season.. take note I did say this is where I would like to see Rhys, considering it is a forward thread

 

[DanA]

These numbers are skewed against payers like Caddy and Horlin-Smith who were the sub multiple times.

Average Clearances when not the sub/ subbed off
Caddy 3.2
Horlin-Smith 3.9
Guthrie 3.3
Duncan 2.1

Even these numbers would be skewed as I suspect Caddy spent a lot more time playing across half forward than Guthrie and GHS who played the vast majority of their time on the ball.

 

[Lana]

Even these numbers would be skewed as I suspect Caddy spent a lot more time playing across half forward than Guthrie and GHS who played the vast majority of their time on the ball.

That is true to an extent, but it is the only unbiased adjustment that can be made with publicly available data.

 

[Shai]

That is true to an extent, but it is the only unbiased adjustment that can be made with publicly available data.

Could make an argument 4 Cam also spending far more time tagging than anywhere else so does that make his stats more impressive..?

 

[Teriyakicat]

HT is so valuable right where he is, I don't like him anywhere else and we now have multiple options up forward.

Of the older players you name (and 1 you didn't name, Kelly) Riv is the only 1 who has said his body is a day to day proposition , do we not have Kolo, Bews, Toohey, Blitz? as prospects next season.. take note I did say this is where I would like to see Rhys, considering it is a forward thread

I think Lonners has also mentioned struggles with his body, Shai.

 

[Shai]

I think Lonners has also mentioned struggles with his body, Shai.

Maybe I shoulda said the only 1 I've seen.. 1 in every crowd

 

[Teriyakicat]

Maybe I shoulda said the only 1 I've seen.. 1 in every crowd

Lol
I was just putting in a good word for Tom, in case he goes downhill next season. It's always a good idea to have some excuses lined up, just in case

 

[dazbroncos]

I am sure sure why you think this suggests anything about his ability to play as a third tall. Whenever I have seen him play at VFL level, he playing the role of a key forward. I don't think he has shown either sufficient mobility( I am not taking about his 20 metre sprint time) or being clean enough below his knees at AFL level to be a third tall. I think he looks great at VFL level but he has a long way to go before he's ready for AFL footy and given the players we just brought in I don't see any opportunity for him.

Im a Kersten fan clearly so with that said I get that you are saying about not being a 3rd KPF based on being a #1 KPF in the VFL. And I would agree that his tank is not as good as Walkers for example. However, neither was Hawk at Shane's age or degree of development. I feel that given his knee is better, and he gets a full preseason in, he will be be able to add plenty to our Forward structure as a lead up forward playing around the 50. I would not expect him in the MF at all. And its game 9 for him. Hawk was pus at the same time. Patience and perseverance needed. And burying him behind Stanley, Clark et al won't help.

Go Catters

 

[MarkCatsFan]

So I went on a bit of a footy blackout after the grand final and other than a few whispers about the Christensen disaster I didn't watch the trade period. That is until just now, and I have to say it is one of the craziest Trade periods I've seen, not sure how I'm feeling about losing Varcoe, it will do wonders for the Geelong BF Board, but he still had value to me.

How are people feeling about what has happened so far?

My first thought when I saw Clark and Stanley was 'Holy shit, great trades' and I'm happy with getting 2 jets. But it makes our already tall forward line even more imbalanced, but on the other side of the coin it does mean Hawkins can go quiet for a few weeks and it won't be the end of the world. Clark and Stanley should kick 20, and Kersten will improve, but Walker is probably going to be pushed out the door now, which is sad because I think he really arrive this finals series, he was one of the few positives. Don't see him getting out of the kittens often with the personnel we have now, and he will hold some serious FA value if he does get pushed out of the door.

So who takes over in midfield? We are going to have to put a lot of faith in guys like Lang because we delisted most of the guys who were 20 games in and at least know their way around an AFL oval, Stringer for example. Caddy is going to progress which will be great, Selwood *knock on wood* will be better after an undisturbed preseason, other than that I am concerned, I don't see us drafting a ready made player, so a lot is resting on the shoulders of very few in our midfield.


(apologies for the ramblings of somebody who just read 5 weeks of offseason news in 15 minutes)

 

[Beanstalk]

Sky is the limit for Mitch Clark, in my opinion. His 2015 potential alongside Tom Hawkins ranges everywhere from 'Mitch Brown the decoy' to something not too far short of the Franklin/Roughead combination.

I'm not saying nor expecting that he will reach those kinds of heights - but I definitely think it's possible.

 

[Cursed Cat]

So I went on a bit of a footy blackout after the grand final and other than a few whispers about the Christensen disaster I didn't watch the trade period. That is until just now, and I have to say it is one of the craziest Trade periods I've seen, not sure how I'm feeling about losing Varcoe, it will do wonders for the Geelong BF Board, but he still had value to me.

How are people feeling about what has happened so far?

My first thought when I saw Clark and Stanley was 'Holy shit, great trades' and I'm happy with getting 2 jets. But it makes our already tall forward line even more imbalanced, but on the other side of the coin it does mean Hawkins can go quiet for a few weeks and it won't be the end of the world. Clark and Stanley should kick 20, and Kersten will improve, but Walker is probably going to be pushed out the door now, which is sad because I think he really arrive this finals series, he was one of the few positives. Don't see him getting out of the kittens often with the personnel we have now, and he will hold some serious FA value if he does get pushed out of the door.

So who takes over in midfield? We are going to have to put a lot of faith in guys like Lang because we delisted most of the guys who were 20 games in and at least know their way around an AFL oval, Stringer for example. Caddy is going to progress which will be great, Selwood *knock on wood* will be better after an undisturbed preseason, other than that I am concerned, I don't see us drafting a ready made player, so a lot is resting on the shoulders of very few in our midfield.


(apologies for the ramblings of somebody who just read 5 weeks of offseason news in 15 minutes)

I think you've processed it all remarkably well MarkCatsFan

Other relative bombshells were the delistings of Mitch Brown (last game with the club a final) and Joel Hamling (our first pick in the 2011 draft), and the late swap of draft picks with Adelaide (trading up our #14 for #10, and swapping our #35 for #47) which has seen the phantom-drafters fire up on this board for the first time in years.

You're spot on with regards to the the state of the midfield, it will be stretched thin next season, although we should see further improvement from Caddy, Guthrie and Horlin-Smith, with hopefully Hartman and Lang adding more games and perhaps Jansen making his debut.
A return to the midfield for James Kelly is not out of the question given his late-season struggles in the backline. Hopefully Johnson can string together an uninterrupted season but I have serious doubts.

The Christensen trade caused a lot of angst, now that the dust has settled Kardinia Park is still standing and the club will turn out a team again next year.

In effect we've received St. Kilda's Rhys Stanley in return for Christensen, and he looks a really interesting prospect imo; tall, very quick, booming kick, can mark the football. Nearing in on 60 games, so should be getting the hang of AFL footy by the end of next year, if he's going to make it.
Might become a very good player, but everyone's asking; where does he play?

The Mitch Clark thing had most fairly excited early in the piece, but if my read on things is anything to go by, I think expectations have been re-adjusted to more reasonable levels. The bloke's been out of the game a while (see: Hamish McIntosh), had foot issues, and of course issues with depression.
Fingers crossed he makes a solid re-adjustment to the game, might not go entirely smoothly though.

I'm not sure there'll be much in the way of ready-made players at #10 in the draft, from what I've read and the little I've seen, likely #1 pick, midfielder Christian Petracca, could hold his own at AFL level from the get-go. Probably Brayshaw too, who will also be long gone.
We should be in a position to nab a talented player (debate has raged as to whether we'll go for a midfielder, a tall or simply the best available), but I doubt they'd be ready to make a meaningful contribution in 2015. Hopefully I'm wrong!

 

[Eddie1994]

I think you've processed it all remarkably well MarkCatsFan

Other relative bombshells were the delistings of Mitch Brown (last game with the club a final) and Joel Hamling (our first pick in the 2011 draft), and the late swap of draft picks with Adelaide (trading up our #14 for #10, and swapping our #35 for #47) which has seen the phantom-drafters fire up on this board for the first time in years.

You're spot on with regards to the the state of the midfield, it will be stretched thin next season, although we should see further improvement from Caddy, Guthrie and Horlin-Smith, with hopefully Hartman and Lang adding more games and perhaps Jansen making his debut.
A return to the midfield for James Kelly is not out of the question given his late-season struggles in the backline. Hopefully Johnson can string together an uninterrupted season but I have serious doubts.

The Christensen trade caused a lot of angst, now that the dust has settled Kardinia Park is still standing and the club will turn out a team again next year.

In effect we've received St. Kilda's Rhys Stanley in return for Christensen, and he looks a really interesting prospect imo; tall, very quick, booming kick, can mark the football. Nearing in on 60 games, so should be getting the hang of AFL footy by the end of next year, if he's going to make it.
Might become a very good player, but everyone's asking; where does he play?

The Mitch Clark thing had most fairly excited early in the piece, but if my read on things is anything to go by, I think expectations have been re-adjusted to more reasonable levels. The bloke's been out of the game a while (see: Hamish McIntosh), had foot issues, and of course issues with depression.
Fingers crossed he makes a solid re-adjustment to the game, might not go entirely smoothly though.

I'm not sure there'll be much in the way of ready-made players at #10 in the draft, from what I've read and the little I've seen, likely #1 pick, midfielder Christian Petracca, could hold his own at AFL level from the get-go. Probably Brayshaw too, who will also be long gone.
We should be in a position to nab a talented player (debate has raged as to whether we'll go for a midfielder, a tall or simply the best available), but I doubt they'd be ready to make a meaningful contribution in 2015. Hopefully I'm wrong!

Ready-made players in 2014 Draft:

• Jayden Laverde
• Paul Ahern
• Connor Blakely
• Dean Gore
• Peter Bampton
• Caleb Daniel

Then obviously Panos at a later pick.
The taller guys aren't really AFL ready as they have to develop a lot more.

 

[Heckler]

Forward Potential??? Dormant, Budding, Attainable, Promising, Lurking... I wish!
More like Conceivable, Wishful, Desirous, Longing, and Anxious forward Pleading.
Hawk, Clarke, Stanley, Kerstan, Walker, McCarthy, Motlop, Murdoch, Bartel, Vardy, Caddy, Hartman, Lang
More than a dozen players have been nominated in the forward mix.
This suggests that it is more hopeful than assured.

Dangerous forwards are specialist players and the hardest to find.
You can't coach a player to do what Hawkins, StevieJ or Motlop do.
You're either born with the juggernaut body size or the precocious flamboyance or you're not.
History tells us that resting ruckmen, midfielders or aging superstars rarely works.
A good specialist forward is much better value.
Just look how our scoring power dropped when we moved StevieJ to the midfield and moved Chappy off.
Our other forgotten natural forward is Menzel. I desperately wish he can make a successful comeback.
Clarke has the size and ability to be a good key forward but has huge risks.
Apart from Bartel the rest of the blokes are still unproven and don't look like true natural forwards.
Sure they will have a good day out occasionally but lack that X-factor.

Looking at the draft prospects Aiden Anderson is a genuine natural dangerous forward.
He has a rare mix of speed agility and x-factor combined with strength and strong overhead marking

 

[Turbocat]

Interesting watch, seemed to hold his own as a defender against the younger guys in Cameron and Patton, yet Cloke dominated. And looked a very likely type up forward and around the ground. Have a watch and let me know if you think forward, back or ruck? Looks like he can handle himself in the ruck, although from this vision can go missing every now and then.

Not its the right thread for those two vids ,as they are more than just about Forward Potential but they certainly show a few thing to my eyes.
1, the talk that Stanley cant play or is not even a potential backman is wrong. Got done by Cloke late , obviously stuggling aginst his better core strength so trying to stand off him but did more than enough for me to think he is a potential KPP down back. Go back and look at what Tom L looked like verses Fev in one of his early efforts. And he got left 1 out a bit too often verses what is a gun forward. Gees he touched up Harry Taylor ina GF , and Harry is a class act. And verses other opponents he showed steady marking which we like.
He may never be a TomL shut down type but he could be a "Stanley type" backman a blend of HarryT and Blitz.

2, Ruck , not sure he is anything more than another taller Blitz. Still that in itself gives us a bit more flex.

3, As a forward he plays almost like a 3rd tall. One could still have Hawkins and another like a Clark or Walker etc . Has a booming kick

As much as it was a jaw dropping trade, he has the potential to be huge get , and one can see why some Saints were disapointed to see him go. In a better side , what he can bring will mean more. , his height ,mobility , kicking ability and as much as anything his age/body/expereice being ready to play. Forward or not , he has value to bring.