Analysis Fremantle's point deficit - What happens if they get pick 1..?

[Dockeroo]

Not relevant to freo anyone. But for you draft nerds - I found this.

https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf

Look at the 5th slide and the hypothetical on Zaine Cordy in 2014. It says that if the dogs matched a bid and carried a 98 point deficit into the next years draft (2015) it would mean that pick 5 would remain pick 5.
I can only assume from this that if freo finished last this year, pick 1 would have remained pick 1 even with the 265 point deficit?
Love a definite answer to this.

 

[briztoon]

Not relevant to freo anyone. But for you draft nerds - I found this.

https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf

Look at the 5th slide and the hypothetical on Zaine Cordy in 2014. It says that if the dogs matched a bid and carried a 98 point deficit into the next years draft (2015) it would mean that pick 5 would remain pick 5.
I can only assume from this that if freo finished last this year, pick 1 would have remained pick 1 even with the 265 point deficit?
Love a definite answer to this.

That is old and now incorrect. The bid came in the 3rd round, so under today’s rules, any deficit would come off the Bulldogs future 3rd round pick.

 

[Dockeroo]

That is old and now incorrect. The bid came in the 3rd round, so under today’s rules, any deficit would come off the Bulldogs future 3rd round pick.

That’s correct and I’m aware it’s old and the round in which the deficit is applied has since changed. It’s not the point I was making however. Unless the AFL have changed the mechanism around matching bids with points since this document was produced (which I have not seen anywhere and no one has produced evidence otherwise) then it seems that in the hypothetical scenario discussed on this thread, freo would have had pick 1 this year if they’d finished last. Even after the 265 point deficit was applied.
This is the only clue from the AFL that is in writing, anywhere, that provides an indication as to what would have happened in this scenario. Yes it’s a few years old.
But it’s all that we have to go on at this point.
It would be nice for the AFL to clarify this like the modern professional organisation they are supposed to be.

 

[briztoon]

That’s correct and I’m aware it’s old and the round in which the deficit is applied has since changed. It’s not the point I was making however. Unless the AFL have changed the mechanism around matching bids with points since this document was produced (which I have not seen anywhere and no one has produced evidence otherwise) then it seems that in the hypothetical scenario discussed on this thread, freo would have had pick 1 this year if they’d finished last. Even after the 265 point deficit was applied.
This is the only clue from the AFL that is in writing, anywhere, that provides an indication as to what would have happened in this scenario. Yes it’s a few years old.
But it’s all that we have to go on at this point.
It would be nice for the AFL to clarify this like the modern professional organisation they are supposed to be.

If I could find it I would link it, as far as I’m concerned it’s not hypothetical because I heard Twomey explain how it works and why, either on a podcast or AFL video.

Since then I did find an article on Fremantle’s website that confirmed what Twomey said, which I linked in this thread.

 

[Dockeroo]

If I could find it I would link it, as far as I’m concerned it’s not hypothetical because I heard Twomey explain how it works and why, either on a podcast or AFL video.

Since then I did find an article on Fremantle’s website that confirmed what Twomey said, which I linked in this thread.

No offence but Twomeys opinion in a podcast is not evidence and neither is an article in the freo website.
The fact is if you are correct, the rules changes at some point between now and when the article in my post earlier today was written. That is an official AFL document.
There’s been nothing from the AFL since to say the rules changed.

 

[briztoon]

No offence but Twomeys opinion in a podcast is not evidence and neither is an article in the freo website.
The fact is if you are correct, the rules changes at some point between now and when the article in my post earlier today was written. That is an official AFL document.
There’s been nothing from the AFL since to say the rules changed.

It wasn’t Twomey’s opinion.

He said it was a draft deficit rule from the AFL rules and explained it.

 

[giantroo]

Does anyone know if Geelong's PP 11 shifts with the deficit or is that locked in and can't move?

 

[Mego Red]

It wasn’t Twomey’s opinion.

He said it was a draft deficit rule from the AFL rules and explained it.

Yeah, AFL media is a mouthpiece for the league. Twomey says what he's told to say.

 

[briztoon]

Does anyone know if Geelong's PP 11 shifts with the deficit or is that locked in and can't move?

It’s locked in, in between the finalists and non finalists.

It will move according to deficits paid, in this case just Freo’s pick, and will also move if a non finalist gets a band 1 compensation pick.

 

[giantroo]

That's confirmed now

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Do we learn anything about the rules from exactly how far they slid?

 

[perplexed]

Do we learn anything about the rules from exactly how far they slid?

It confirms that Freo would have lost pick 1 if they finished last.

 

[mightymouse75]

That's confirmed now

Was it not the liam Henry bid from carlton that got us into points deficit ?

 

[giantroo]

Was it not the liam Henry bid from carlton that got us into points deficit ?

Yes it was.

 

[PMBangers]

Was it not the liam Henry bid from carlton that got us into points deficit ?

Think the implication is that if not for the effort from Freo to move up to get Serong they wouldn't be in deficit

 

[Mofra]

Caleb Serong for effectively a 4 pick downgrade? That's incredible trading if correct.

 

[Peel67skin]

This year Pick 7 vs pick 11 . I am more interested to see which club pick the better player .

 

[briztoon]

Was it not the liam Henry bid from carlton that got us into points deficit ?

No.

It was trading up to get a second pick in before the Henry bid that caused the deficit.

Fremantle could have stood pat at last year’s draft, where you started with picks 7, 10 and 22.

Drafted Young at pick 7.
Matched Carlton’s bid at pick 9 on Henry with pick 10.
And say drafted Jeremy Sharp or Trent Rivers at pick 23 (22 moved back to 23).

And then had no deficit on this year’s pick 7.

Instead you effectively traded picks 10 and 22 to move up to pick 8 (there were other trades in there to accrue extra picks and points) and matched Carlton’s bid with later picks, that left you short.

Had Fremantle bid on Tom Green last year with their first pick, and GWS matched, they would have saved themselves 60 odd points and have slid back to pick 10 instead.

 

[giantroo]

Something new

 

[briztoon]

Something new

I didn’t do the math to look myself, but figured that’s how it’s always gone.

Not sure why Twomey put it at pick 11 to start with. After paying the deficit, Freo had 1379 in points, which slots in between pick 10 and 11, and because picks 8, 9 and 10 all moved up one spot, Freo slides in to 10.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Soooo the question remains the same, if we had have finished last, does this mean we keep pick 1?

 

[perplexed]

Soooo the question remains the same, if we had have finished last, does this mean we keep pick 1?

Based on this, yes.

 

[Joao]

Based on this, yes.

Cleary should have tanked.

 

[perplexed]

I didn’t do the math to look myself, but figured that’s how it’s always gone.

Not sure why Twomey put it at pick 11 to start with. After paying the deficit, Freo had 1379 in points, which slots in between pick 10 and 11, and because picks 8, 9 and 10 all moved up one spot, Freo slides in to 10.
View attachment 967092

I thought he was right the first time with the pick sliding back to the first one they could afford, which was 11. They seem to be making it up as they go along.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

I didn’t do the math to look myself, but figured that’s how it’s always gone.

Not sure why Twomey put it at pick 11 to start with. After paying the deficit, Freo had 1379 in points, which slots in between pick 10 and 11, and because picks 8, 9 and 10 all moved up one spot, Freo slides in to 10.

The whole argument re: pick 1 was that you needed the full point value of a pick to gain/retain it - not just more points than the next guy, because they had a pick, not points.

This official verdict says you do indeed only need more points than the next guy.