Future Midfielder Shortage?

[Vader]

In the last couple of drafts we've generally gone tall. Last year we took 4 talls out of 5 draftees. The year before that, we took 2 out of 7. The end result is that our stocks of talls have never looked better and it's hard to see how we'll fit them all into the side, given that none of our existing talls look like retiring any time soon. Brett Burton's probably the only exception.

In terms of numbers, our stocks of midfielders & smaller/mid-sized forwards & defenders on the other hand do not look so rosey - and this is the area where our retirements are expected to be in the next few years (McLeod, Goodwin, Edwards, Shirley, Doughty).

Typically, our 22 selected each week consists of 2 ruckmen, 4-5 KPPs and 15-16 smaller players each week. Of the remaining 18 players not selected each week we currently have 9 extra talls, 2 extra ruckmen and 7 extra midfielders (plus Martin - upgraded rookie, effectively the 41st player on our list).

Do we have an imbalance with the structure of our list at present? What can we do about it? What should we do about it?

I can understand how & why this came about. Firstly, we needed to cover the possibility that Burton & Hentschell would be unable to return to AFL standard football. Both now appear likely to make it, proving the doubters (me amongst them) wrong. Secondly, talls take longer to develop and have a higher failure rate, so it makes sense that we'd draft more of them.

At best, I can only see the imbalance shifting by 1 player toward the smalls this year. Nick Gill will be chopped, counted amongst the talls. Most of the others facing the axe are smalls anyway, with Gallman & (possibly) Jacky leading the charge.

Any thoughts? Comments? Is it a storm in a teacup, or something we need to be concerned about?

 

[jo172]

Cook, Armstrong, Petrenko all playing reasonably good SANFL footy at the moment. They'd be in the side much earlier in previous years.

Dangerfield din't play.

Martin didn't play.

Henderson and Moss are waiting in the wings.

I think we're alright for the foreseeable future tbh.

 

[Vader]

I think we have good quality, but poor depth.

With the KPPs, we have a 1:2 ratio of players in the side vs out of it. When it comes to the mids it's 2:1.

Dangermouse & Mackay come in, Douglas & Sloane drop out. The maths remains the same.

Henderson is 190cm - do we call him a tall or a mid? I've listed Burton as a tall, at 185cm as a tall, yet Dangermouse (187cm) is a midsized player in my mind. Moss will in all likelihood be cut at the end of the year, his body & career ruined by injury.

We have an abundance of players outside the team in an area where few vacancies are likely to open up. On the other hand, we have a shortage of players in the one area where the vacancies ARE likely to occur.

 

[KUNG FU]

We'll be adding a few this year, absolutely no doubt about it Vader. Although I still truly believe that we went tall in last year's draft on a "best available basis", Rendell has had his eye on list management very well.

Also, add Otten to the wing, Henderson could be either, but most likely on the other wing in my mind at the moment.

 

[KUNG FU]

Also Burton and Hentschel most certainly are not out of the woods yet either.

 

[NikkiNoo]

Our drafting scenarios in the past few years has revealed to me that while you generally need a higher pick to ensure you can get a decent tall player, the depth of the midfielder / mid size players in the draft mean that you can get a quality player from the middle to lower draft picks for these positions.

Rendell has talked a lot about this difference and his draft plans are not for a single year, but take into account the talent that is likely to be available in the following year as well.

 

[Tex200]

In terms of the retirements I think we have planned pretty well. Goodwin is back in defence, McLeod plays a role, with probably only Edwards having maitained status as a frontline midfielder. By and large the midfield has been replenished. Thompson, Vince, VB, McKay, Dangerfield, Shirley, Doughty, Reilly, are all taking responsibility for the midfield, possibly add Otten that list next year.

In terms of depth, we have seen Sloane, Cook, Martin, Petrenko who have all shown potential to step up to AFL. Players such as Armstrong are still in the wings waiting on an opportunity.

Perhaps the key point as correctly mentioned is that midfield stocks are more easily and quickly developed or secured via trade, so given the stocks we have up our sleeve it was a good time to put some talls in the cupboard. I also think talls are much more hit and miss so we needed to get a few in stock to be sure we had a % that do make it. Even with the amount we do have I dont think we are overly blessed with tall defenders. Young appears to have been a pleasant surprise, Davis appears on course, but other than those 2 I cant see anyone else banging down the door for a key defensive post.

All in all I think we have it pretty right, although expect them to concentrate more on midfield talent in the coming drafts/trade periods.

 

[WALL-e]

Much easier to find small talent in a compramised draft than it is tall.

I doubt we take many (is any) KPP's in the next 3 or so drafts.

Wouldn't surprise to see 1 or 2 rucks taken, but we have Danger and Otten both chomping at the bit to play in the middle.

Porps who could end up there.

Also, Symes, MacKay, Douglas, Cook, Armstrong, Petrenko, Sloane, ......Jacky

I'm pretty content with our ratio, it's not like our midfield is a glaring deficiency.

 

[Sekaj]

Midfielders take less time to develop than talls so if we can somehow draft/trade wisely for a quality mid we should hopefully be able to address this shortage, if there is a shortage.

 

[Pietmans]

I also think they have been right with their drafting policies, even though it has created this imbalance.

As well as the factors raised previously, Rendell knew the chances of recruiting good talls in the next three compromised drafts (one because of the change in eligible age, the other two because of the new team concessions) is very slim.

There remains a reasonable chance of picking up additional midfielders which are generally in far greater supply even though we are likely to take the minumum picks each year.

 

[Vader]

For the record, I counted Otten as a mid-small sized player, despite the fact that he's taller than Burton - who I counted as a tall.

Here's the way I divided them:
Rucks - Maric, Moran, Griffin, Sellar
Talls - Tippett, Stevens, Bock, Rutten, Burton, Walker, Young, Lee, McKernan, Davis, Kite, Gill, Hentschel
Mid-Smalls - McLeod, Edwards, Goodwin, Johncock, Doughty, Shirley, Thompson, Reilly, Van Berlo, Knights, Porplzyia, Douglas, Symes, Vince, Mackay, Jacky, Otten, Dangermouse, Sloane, Gallman, Petrenko, Cook, Armstrong, (Martin)

It's all very well to say that Otten, Dangermouse & co will move into the midfield. However, they're already in the team, so the maths doesn't change as a result of giving them different roles.

Now, if Otten were to move into the midfield (replacing someone like Edwards) and was replaced by Davis in defence, then we have a change in the maths - one mid-small drops out, one tall comes in.

 

[WALL-e]

Our talls are extreemly versitile though Vader, it's Craigs calling card. A guy like Davis has been said as a forward, back, even midfielder. Can play 3rd tall (like Otten) or KPD.

Means a mid like Otten (also versitile) who's playing out of position, can come into the center.

Tippett, Bock, Young, Lee, McKernan, Davis, Kite and hentschel are all athletic and versitile, not players you'd say play this position or that position.

Then in the small, MacKay, Dangerfield, Jacky, Petrenko, Cook and Martin are all not in the team atm.

Granted we'll loose those forementioned players, but not at once, and while they are going out, we draft future depth, while those currently in the wings come in.

Our 23-28 player range are all AFL capable, so there won't be glaring holes (you wouldn't imagine).

 

[amer]

Our areas of concern heading into the next couple of years are quality ruckmen and crumbing. We will suffer no shortage through the midfield.

 

[macca23]

IMO the club has got it exactly right.

There's a lot more ifs and buts about some of our talls than there is with the smaller players

Gill is almost permanently injured and is likely to be delisted this year while Hentschel would have appeared to be the same at draft time last year (and still may be - hope not).

Sellar hadn't come on as expected, although Tippett was starting to show good signs.

In ther rucks Griffin was getting a lot of injury and Moran was only looking like a spare parts man.

To be able to draft a KPP in Davis for either forward or back AND a forward/ ruckman in McKernan in the 1 draft was a stroke of genius as it covers all of our potential problems area in the 1 draft.

Add the development of Bobby Moran as a ruckman and we are well equipped in the big man department for the future.

This year's draft would concentrate on 3 areas IMO:

Mid-fielders - as good as we can get them.

A crumber - one who is quick and can kick goals.

A ruckman - more likely to be a developing rookie than on the main list

I can't see us making any play for a KPP in the draft.

 

[jackster83]

Interesting thread this one. Our KPP depth is looking just about the best I've ever seen it.

IMO in this year's draft:
1st pick: Midfielder with kicking skills a feature.

2nd pick: Small-medium (Torney or Massie sized) defender who can primarily play on smaller forwards but can help out on talls if needed, kinda like Gallman except good. This will free up Otten/van Berlo to play midfield. Davis is too big to play on smalls and I see him as being a Stevens/Bock type player anyway.

3rd pick: Quick, crumbing forward who can lay a tackle.

 

[whitey_1975]

I think the balance at the moment is great,
however I think we will draft for mids and crumbers in the next draft.
Our rucks are great as I believe that 198cm-202cm mobile rucks are far more versatile and will be the way forward with ruckmen. ie. M.Clarke, Moran, C Wood. Cox is well....Cox. I think we may add McKernan to that mix next year and with Sellars continued improvement Im happy with our ruck stock.
We really need a crumber, and Im still hoping that maybe Kite could be an outside midfielder/wingman in time.

 

[cmndstab]

I would say we've recruited a lot of mids as of late (last year was the exception) that would, in a club that didn't have primarily aged midfielders, be used as depth players and eventual successors. In our case, we've not had that luxury and now that our aging mids have stopped playing midfield we're basically fielding a very young midfield with not a lot of depth behind them in the SANFL, but that's a function of the side before they were recruited.

We definitely need to continue to recruit good mids but I don't think we'll be short of starting 22 mids for a while, however, just as Vader says, there's not a huge amount of depth yet.

We're lucky that most mids we've drafted in the last, say, five years has turned out well. Check out this list:

Patrick Dangerfield
Andy Otten (I'll count him as a mid since that's where he's supposed to end up)
Bernie Vince
Richard Douglas
Nathan Van Berlo
Chris Knights

With positive signs for:

Jared Petrenko
Brodie Martin
Rory Sloane

And maybes over:

Myke Cook
Tony Armstrong
James Moss
Chris Schmidt


It's not a bad list considering probably only half our picks have been mids.

 

[Crow-mo]

do we have room for all the mids we have now?

 

[tewe]

Myke cook i would say wouldn't be in the maybe's he's got the X-factor that we need and also he did really well for the panthers getting like 25 possesion and kicking 1.2

 

[cmndstab]

Myke cook i would say wouldn't be in the maybe's he's got the X-factor that we need and also he did really well for the panthers getting like 25 possesion and kicking 1.2

You might be right. I'm a big fan but I'm still yet to be 100% convinced that he'll be an AFL player, but he's certainly got some great traits going for him.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

do we have room for all the mids we have now?

Depends on whether we truly believe they're all going to make the grade?

We'd better be pretty sure given the sudden loss of 3-4 class midfield runners in the next couple of years .......get it wrong and ......

 

[Vader]

do we have room for all the mids we have now?

With a playing list of 40, including 2 veterans - 41 with the upgraded rookie - and only 22 players selected each week, the answer is of course, no.

Then again, the only mid-small sized players who haven't played this year are Cook, Jacky, Armstrong & Gallman. You'd have to say that our depth this year has been tested in this area.

It's a question of balance.

We have 3-4 small-mid sized players who are unlikely to proceed beyond 2010 - Goodwin, Edwards, McLeod & Shirley. Maybe even Doughty, depending upon how long his 3-4 year streak of form can continue.

We need 3-4 youngsters who are ready & able to step into the team and replace them - and a similar number in reserve in case of injury. I'm not expecting the youngsters to take the place of the veterans directly - those currently in the best 22 will step up and the kids will be taking the place of the players who are rookies this year.

Do we have that level of depth in our mid-small sized youngsters? That's the question I'm asking.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

3rd pick: Quick, crumbing forward who can lay a tackle.

We've been trying to draft one of these for ages with no success. Time to trade. Ruckmen with several preseasons under their belts seem to be at a premium at the moment and we don't need all the ones we've got.

Travis Varcoe? I like Rhan Hooper but he'd be a massive gamble.

 

[StonesThrow]

I believe we have alot of young MIDs but not enough quality. Like I said in another thread one more MID with the age and quality of Swan/Pendlebury/Griffen. One of those guys along with Danger, Thommo, Vince, Porps and Mackay would make for a very strong future given our Forward line and defensive stocks.

 

[crowman86]

I doubt the Lions would want to get rid of Hooper after all the effort they have invested in him. I do agree we really should be looking at trading to obtain a small crumbing foward. One with genuine goal sence.