Preview Gameday Thread. Hawks Vs Cats

[grizzlym]

Round 15
Hawthorn vs Geelong

Where and when: MCG, Saturday, July 10, 2.10pm AEST
Head to head: Geelong 76 wins, Hawthorn 67 wins, one draw
Last time: Geelong 14.16 (100) d Hawthorn 13.13 (91), round two, 2010 at the MCG

Geelong Cats
B:[/B] Josh Hunt, Matthew Scarlett, Andrew Mackie
HB: Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Darren Milburn
C: James Kelly, Cameron Ling, Jimmy Bartel
HF: Paul Chapman, James Podsiadly, Travis Varcoe
F: Mathew Stokes, Brad Ottens, Shannon Byrnes
Foll: Mark Blake, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett
I/C: Joel Corey, Tom Lonergan, David Wojcinski, Mitch Duncan
Emg: Simon Hogan, Taylor Hunt, Trent West

In: Ottens, Ling, Taylor
Out: Simon Hogan, Taylor Hunt, Trent West

Hawthorn
B: Campbell Brown, Stephen Gilham, Brent Guerra
HB: Ben Stratton, Ryan Schoenmakers, Thomas Murphy
C: Chance Bateman, Luke Hodge, Clinton Young
HF: Michael Osborne, Lance Franklin, Shaun Burgoyne
F: Carl Peterson, Jarryd Roughead, Cyril Rioli
Foll: Brent Renouf, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis
I/C: Josh Gibson, Wayde Skipper, Grant Birchall, Xavier Ellis
Emg: Beau Muston, Jordan Lisle, Shane Savage

In: Brown, Gibson
Out: Sam Mitchell (hand), Beau Muston

FORM
Geelong: WWWLW
Hawthorn: WWWWW

http://www.afl.com.au/Premiership/M...play=1&seasonid=75&roundid=758&fixtureid=5356

Above: Geelong's back six



Here kitty, kitty, kitty.

What a big game. We've fought some close tussles in the past few years. Somehow we bring out the best in one another, but it's fair to say that despite Geelong's undeniable quality and terrific run, we dealt them a savage blow in September 2008. And that's our history with the pussies: when there's something major on the line, we win.

This game is almost a final for us. Win this and we're well on our way.

We've speculated on the team changes here.

And discussed the merits of the actual team selected here.

Many thanks to Galon for the great preview too. (Mr Bartos was last seen driving a stolen gelati truck down the Nepean Highway).

The usual post-game threads - Autopsy & Next Round Changes - will be up immediately after the game, and don't forgot to vote for the best players too.

So without any further ado, it's on with the gameday thread, Go Hawks!

 

[grizzlym]

....

Oh, it’s you again…

Round 17 2008, it’s a Friday night at the MCG, and 70,000+ are about to watch the game everyone has been waiting for.
The two form teams of the comp are about to square off, and even though each club is missing some key players, the spectacle will lose nothing as both Geelong and Hawthorn throw all that they can at each other in a race to the final siren.

We all know how that panned out, and indeed, what lessons were to be learned and put into play in the next meeting, be that on the biggest stage of all.

Fast forward to 2010, and while the Cat’s have remained a dominant force of the competition, picking up another Premiership, Hawthorn have been anything but. During the summer months of early this year the talk was of redemption, and a return to form, such was the disappointment of 2009.
Once again, Hawthorn and Geelong fought a tight tussle in Round 2, with Geelong collecting the spoils and Hawthorn left to wonder what might have been. From there the two clubs went in opposite directions. Geelong to the top of the ladder, and Hawthorn to one of its worst starts to a season in living memory.
What has transpired though, in the last 7 weeks is a gradual awakening of a group laden with talent. The current vein of form being enough to raise the hopes of fans for a top 4 finish, and possibly even another Grand Final berth.

But back to reality, and if Hawthorn are to challenge for a top 4 spot, then a win against Geelong is almost a necessity, in fact, if the Hawks are to remain resilient and focused on a top 8 finish, a win against the league leader is a must.



The Hawks enter the game without their captain, Sam Mitchell, but regain the services of Josh Gibson and Campbell Brown, whereas Geelong put some young tykes out to pasture and bring in the experienced trio of Ottens, Ling and Taylor.

Hawthorn will look to spread and pressure the Geelong defence with a number of small forwards in Rioli, Osborne and Peterson while trying to stifle the run that is normally so evident from the Cat’s back half. Franklin and Roughead need to produce scoreboard pressure early as the rest of the team will be looking to players like Hodge, Sewell, Lewis and Burgoyne to fill the void left by the injured Mitchell.
Should Ling go to Hodge, as most would assume, Clarkson and the coaching panel must do everything in their power to win the match up and give Hodge the opportunity to lead as well as we all know he can.

The Hawthorn backline, while not star studded has grown and impressed over the last 7 weeks, but with the inclusion of Ottens and other tall targets(Podsiadly and Lonergan, depending where he is used) this weekends game could well be the biggest test of all. Indeed, if Geelongs talls aren’t concern enough, there’s also Chapman, Byrnes, Stokes and Varcoe to contain, who are all capable of getting off the leash and kicking a bag of goals if they are not respected.

In a game that will no doubt be played at high pace, with great skill, the battle of the midfield will go a long way to deciding just who takes home the chocolates. The Cats have a list of midfield possibilities that are the envy of every other club, such is the spread of talent amongst their group, and Hawthorn must win more than their fair share of the contested situations if they are to get over the line.

Make no mistake, these two clubs have an almost unspoken rule of providing a physical, skilled and engrossing contest.

If recent history between the two clubs tells us anything, we’re in for one hell of a game.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[Brishawk]

I hear Geelong players are bringing Handbags back. Time to smash'em Hawks!!!

 

[Stubz]

HAWTHORN VS GEELONG PREVIEW

As far as I'm concerned any games we have played against Geelong so far in 2009/2010 have been write-offs, our form/team (mainly due to injuries) was nowhere near were it is now and were it has been when we have been well and truly up and about. I'll cut to chase and say I will be very surprised if Hawthorn lose this match (yes there is probably an inkling of bias but this is the way I honestly see it) and I'm having trouble not convincing myself to walk down to the local TAB to throw some money on this. If Geelong beat us then my respect for them as a football club after this game will go up two fold because I know it won't/shouldn't be an easy victory for them as our boys will throw everything at them.

PAST HISTORY:
2010:
9 points to Geelong (Geelong 14.16.100 d Hawthorn 13.13.91)

2009:
8 points to Geelong (Geelong 15.21.111 d Hawthorn 16.7.103)
1 point to Geelong (Geelong 15.9.99 d Hawthorn 14.14.98)

2008:
11 points to Geelong (Geelong 12.16.88 d Hawthorn 11.11.77)
26 points to Hawthorn , the only game that counted (Hawthorn 18.7.115 d Geelong 11.23.89)

2007:
4 points to Hawthorn (Hawthorn 10.16.76 d Geelong 9.18.72)

Pre 2007:
Hawthorn have been renowned for beating Geelong (1989 Grand Final etc.) I don't know the exact numbers and I don't think they are all that relevant but I definitely know we had the wood on them.

To put the above into context in the last five Home and Away matches the winning margin has never been greater than 11 points (always 2 goals in the game) remembering that our team/form on the park in 2009/first game of 2010 has been heavily influenced by injury. The average winning margin in the last 5 years has been 6.6 points (just over a goal) excluding the Gran Final and approximately 9.8 points including the Grand Final.

So we have the past history to prove that we are a better match-up for Geelong then just about any other team in the competition. I know you could perhaps mount a case for St Kilda but still I don't think there record is nearly as good as ours.

FORM
Hawthorn has won the last 7 games on the trot which is a massive effort, the merits of this winning streak can be questioned due to the quality of opponents but fact of the matter is we have beaten around 47% of the competition and we have done this week after week without losing. Geelong lost convincingly to St Kilda two games ago, however they have only lost three times this season and when they have won they usually beat their opponent by a considerable opponent.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND KEY MATCH-UPS/ROLES
Hawthorn inclusions to best 22 since last game (or very close to it):
Wayde Skipper (as a second ruck), Clinton Young, Shaun Burgoyne, Brad Sewell and Ben Stratton

Hawthorn exclusions to best 22 since last game (or very close to it):
Sam Mitchell

Geelong inclusions to best 22 since last game (or very close to it):
James Podsiadly, Travis Varcoe and Darryn Milburn (possibly Matthew Stokes if you rate him)

Geelong exclusions to best 22 since last game (or very close to it):
Stevie Johnson, Cameron Mooney and Tom Hawkins

Skipper (or any form of a second ruck) is possibly the most detrimental aspects to our side, perhaps you could argue even bigger then a Hodge or a Franklin. Skipper allows Renouf to rest on the bench so his effectiveness and impact doesn't taper off towards the end of the game. I personally believe the only reason Geelong beat us last time round was because Geelong were able to monster us in the ruck division (particularly through Ottens) in the final term and thus get on top of the clearances/contested possession, which as we all know are crucial to a team's chances of winning. The other important thing to remember is as a result of no second ruck we were forced to play players such as Hodge/Peterson/Roughead out of their natural positions, which we know is 9 times out of 10 are a recipe for a disaster.

Whilst Mitchell is no doubt a massive loss as it gives Ling and Geelong an obvious headache as to who to tag between himself and Hodge, the inclusion of Sewell and S.Burgoyne this time around negates this to an extent. Both these blokes have had more then then enough games under their belt to justify them getting back to their peak fitness anytime soon. Given the stage and the opposition, chances are that these guys will find their best performances in this game. They are two of the best clearance/hard ball get players in the competition when they are up and going and they can shake of tackles with ease. What this combination of players can offer that wasn't really feasible last time round was for Luke to be released from having to do a lot of the in and under grunt work. This means Hodge, if the coach is on the same page as me, should use Hodge's versatility to exploit the inevitable Ling v Hodge match-up. I think Ling is an nowhere near the defender (v. Hodge going forward) or forward (v. Hodge as a rebounding defender) compared to when he is an in and under midfielder hanging around the stoppages were he is comfortable.

Given Geelong have no other genuine taggers bar Ling I will be interested to see how they curb Sewell/Burgoyne/Rioli's influence, no doubt there will be a lot of head to head match-ups and one that I'm looking most forward to is Rioli on Ablett which no doubt will happen at one stage. The emergence of Stratton as a clear starting 18 defender in the Hawthorn line-up will bolster our defensive stocks against a Geelong forward line that looks seriously depleted with a lack of SJ/Mooney/Hawkings. One of Stratton's biggest strengths is his ability to play on both talls and smalls and no doubt this will be in the back of Clarko's mind. It seems obvious given our recent outing were Ottens was in almost the same situation RE: returning from a long injury layoff that he will spend a fair bit of time up forward. I would prefer it if Gilham went to Ottens, Schoenmakers to Podsiadly and Stratton to Chapman/Varcoe. I don't think Stratton should be avoided playing on Ottens at all costs, as he is much better further up the ground were his disposal and rebounding skills are put to better use. Stratton playing more around CHB/high half-back also gets rid of the opportunity for Geelong to isolate Ottens on Stratton deep in defence which would be favorable to them, given Ottens lack of mobility and the height difference, as Stratton gives away 13cms and around 26kg. A Varcoe match-up is preferable because he can be a dangerous small forward at times and also plays further up the ground, which as Stratton showed against Sydney/Goodes he is capable of doing.

Young is another massive IN and probably one of our most important players because he offers the side something we severely, genuine leg speed, run and carry, goal-kicking midfielder and penetration in kicking, all of which are vital in modern AFL were zones are so prominent. I can see a Young/Kelly duel being likely, given they are both predominantly outside players and they both tend to play on the wing.

I count Rioli as an IN because last time he played Geelong he was used exclusively as a small forward with very limited TOG given he missed all the NAB cup/challenge matchs, RD1 and the bulk of the pre-season. Many of you probably don't play SuperCoach (official and best player ranking system in the AFL) but if you do to put into context how dominant Rioli has been and how red hot his form is he has averaged 130.4 SC points in the last 6 weeks which is only behind Ablett and Goddard in terms of SC season averages. Yep thats right his form in the last 6 weeks has been so good (at least 5 SC on average then the next best) that he is ahead of the of Chapman, Hodge, Judd, Sandilands and the rest of the competition in terms of their season averages. This just goes to show how much Rioli has benefited from getting games under his belt, his role change to the midfield and growing into his body. Just imagine what this kid is going to do once he gets a full pre-season under his belt.

I expect Harry Taylor to play CHB on whichever player out of Franklin/Roughead is around the CHF position and Matthew Scarlett to play on whoever is in deep forward/FF position. I think Franklin on the wing is another card that Clarko should throw up on them, the only counter to this would be Andrew Mackie but I'm not convinced he has the engine and skills to be able to play on Buddy when he is so high up the ground. Roughead will need to really get on top of his opponent early and give both himself and the team's confidence a boost. We all know he is down on his form and we all know what he is capable when he is in the right frame of mind, a big and important game like this is what I see as the perfect way to kick start a rich vein of form that he can carry onto the finals series when it is crucial your big forwards step up.

I think Campbell Brown will be thrown up forward to try and add some extra defensive pressure to our forward line and keep the Geelong defenders who we know love to run off and create more accountable.

I can sense Chance Bateman (after the success he had on Stanton two weeks ago and Griffen last week) doing a tagging role on someone, hard to determine exactly who but he seems to match up much better on the outside midfielders. Geelong don't really have much in the way of outside midfielders that are threatening so he may have to just play an unconventional role on Ablett. We know his almost impossible to tag but out the rest of tagworthy Geelong midfielders (aka Selwood/Bartel/Chapman) he seems to be the one most susceptible to letting really annoying taggers (which Bateman can be) get under his skin.

I think Sewell will be keeping his direct opponent pretty honest, I'm not entirely sure if it will be a hard tag of sorts as to be honest after seeing how good he was last year not being as defensively minded I think he is better used in a more attacking role. So yeah I'd imagine he will be focusing on winning his own ball and giving our team first use of the footy whilst also to a lesser extent trying to curb the influence of his opponent who I imagine will be one of the big four in Selwood/Bartel/Chapman/Ablett.

I have real question marks on Geelong's forward line, how they will function with a lack of Hawkins/Mooney who are pretty important to Geelong's structure and particularly Podsiadly's role. Lack of SJ also hurts them massively, no doubt Hawthorn will have plenty of numbers behind the ball like last week and have players running (Gibson, Brown, Hodge if down back etc.) off their man at every opportunity to help provide chop-outs and getting in the hole of Podsiadly/Ottens.

I get the feeling Geelong are rushing back and rolling the dice to an extent with all of Taylor, Ottens and Ling, all three crucial players to their team make-up and the exact type of players you wouldn't want to risk in my eyes. It will be interesting to see if they are down on their usual influence given their recent injuries and I think it could be an area of weakness for them, particularly if they go down and limit their rotations in which case they become liabilities.

Something else I've noted is we are going in with 8 genuine defenders in Brown, Gilham, Guerra, Stratton, Schoenmakers, Murphy, Gibson, Birchall and one quasi-defender in Ellis. I can't really see Gilham, Stratton, Schoenmakers or Murphy leaving there defensive posts so it suggests to me that we could see a few wildcards. Brown to the forward line as I hinted above, Guerra playing further up the ground perhaps perhaps at time as a forward whos aim it is to kicks long-goals from outside 50 (RE: that 50m goal on that insane angle last year) which is the sort of role use to play back in his earlier pre-Hawthorn days. Gibson could run through the midfield as a tagger perhaps on Chapman, seems like a decent match-up. Birchall possibly on the wing, which is a role that he has potentially been earmarked for by fans for some time. I would expect Ellis to spend very little time of the half-back line, I think its safe to say he will be playing nearly all of the game rotating as an inside and outside/wing midfielder. Some of the suggestions RE: Guerra, Gibson and Birchall are really left of centre and I personally don't expect them to happen, but there is a small possibility that this is what Clarko could be thinking.

Hopefully you enjoy this and it helps kill some of your time whilst we await for one of the most anticipated games of the year to begin!

 

[Threadkilla]

Top summary folks. I get the feeling a lot will depend on the mindset of the players. If we aren't switched on we will pay the price, but if we play with the same application as we saw last week against the dogs we will be very hard to beat. I am a little worried though because after winning 7 on the trot a letdown is only around the corner. I hope it aint this week because a win against the top team and arch rival will do wonders for the club.

A big test for us and I think we have the form and team on paper to give it an almighty shake. Carn the Hawkas!

 

[Vanstead]

In all likelihood we'll have to fight for the flag from the bottom 4 of the 8, which means consecutive finals against good sides. What better practice than last week and this?

 

[Hawkinspired]

Heard on AFL Teams that Ottens could be a late withdrawl...

 

[September 27 2008]

Heard on AFL Teams that Ottens could be a late withdrawl...

Read the same thing in the Geelong Addy this morning. And also Joel Corey might withdraw too.

 

[mess]

Sewell will have to be the man today.

 

[IBleedBrownNGold]

Our small forwards need to have a big day. If the likes of Ossie, Junior, Changa, Browny (if he plays there) can score a bag, we'll win today. Hodgey needs to break his tag too, because he'll probably get Ling. I pray that Ottens doesn't play.

 

[Loyal Hawk]

Can't wait for this game, will be interesting to see who the wet and windy weather favours. Probably Geelong although they were outplayed in wet conditions against the Saints.
Like the potential match up of Goo on Chapman. Gibson could also play further up the ground. Burger has to step up and play his best game of the year for us to break even in the middle without mitch.
Geelong are full strength in the midfield and down back, just missing some forwards, but with the inclusion of J Pod and improvement in Varcoe and Byrnes they have enough forward line options. Promises to be a cracker.

 

[go hawks!!!]

Here is the radar at 10.28am, use this link to check in the next few hrs.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR022.shtml

I have been outdoors this morning and i can tell you the wind is howling.

 

[randall boner]

must bring our A GAME to the match anything less and we will be handed our arse holes on a platter..........go hawks

 

[themarkedman72]

the geelong lie-up is still very strong despite three key exclusions in Mooney,SJ etc.

Hawks have loaded up on defenders for rebounding off of half back. Absorb and Counter attack is our plan of attack. ALa' Arsenal vs Manchester united in the late nineties early milenium.

This also allows more negating mindset in the middle. Gibson and Lucky Bateman will get the rotation on Chapman as a tag.

Chapman is the key, he actually does stuff as opposed to ABlett who is a bit of an over-rated handbagger in comparison. The constant waxing that makes up Abletts stats just doesnt compare to Chapmans incisive attack.

Sewell will play a soft tag on ablett and hurt him the other way as Ablett has a very poor defensive game. This will be a huge challenge for him once he moves to Gold Coast btw. I believe he will become a fwd like his dad due to this deficiency.

Geelong have rushed back too many players who cant be game fit. Big mistake as they will tire late in what will be a very demanding contest.

Ottens surely wont play for this reason and weather not suiting his game imo.

you may all laugh at me BUT...

Hawks have too much fire power and desire to prove themselves. Geelong have no motivation and look a team just past their best. Hawks will win and could even be a blow out. The stars are aligned. Hawks by ten goals if the free kicks are equal (UNlikely).
Hawks by 1-12 points if Geelong have 7-10 more free kicks (Likely).

want to see:
Burgoyne grab it by the throat. He can be the difference today and I can see him destroying the cats.

Dont want to see:
a repeat of the Gary "Drop the ball" ABlett circus.

 

[cam975]

I'd like to see Hodge have a real influence today and break the inevitable Ling tag. Best on ground would be nice for the Brownlow chances!

It could be a real scrap today in this weather (which is getting worse by the minute), and I wouldn't bank on accurate goal kicking, but then again, we haven't had that for years!

 

[PNess]

At the ground early. Great to see Roughy and Lewis out on the ground early doing set shots and slotting them. Freddo Frog mascot is distracting them though. I'm predicting a big one from big Rough.

 

[Brant]

If the boys are allowed to "warm up" 90 minutes before a game then by the same merits I am allowed a beer 90 minutes before the game.

It makes sense!

 

[AC for PM]

I'm with you Brant... kssshhhh

 

[Upgrayedd]

Tried a few pubs, most are showing the eagles/adelaide game, and stuck with free to air.

 

[Baz_hawk]

Corey out for Geelong. Hogan fills his spot.

No changes for the hawks.

 

[Brant]

Tried a few pubs, most are showing the eagles/adelaide game, and stuck with free to air.

Mate try the Inglewood Hotel for a 12:00 start.

I have never been for a Hawks game but apparently it is where the WA Hawks Supporter Club goes each week.

I am heading there in 20 mins.

 

[noosa hawk mad]

Corey out for Geelong. Hogan fills his spot.

No changes for the hawks.

a good out for us Has always played well in the pasts V Hawks
Beer opening lets get it on should be a pisser of a game Go Hawks.......

 

[Brant]

What is the ground like?

Pretty wet day in Melb is it?

 

[TNTre]

Joel Corey confirmed out. Simon Hogan comes in