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**UPDATED 18.11.2018**
It's back for 2018 folks.
Disclaimer - Remember that its opinion based and opinions are my own.
I acknowledge that I'm not as knowledgeable as others but I always take an interest in the draft, do my own research and reading from multiple sources, learn traits, watch vision and ultimately try and predict how the cards will fall in the draft.
Kudos to the draft regulars, Knightmare especially who I've followed since I started getting involved in draft chats using his analysis to help me formulate ideas and firm up my own thoughts on draftees and where they land.
I love feedback and appreciate any sort of it within fair reason.
PICK 1 - CARLTON: Sam Walsh
PICK 2 - GOLD COAST: Jack Lukosius
PICK 3 - GOLD COAST (Lynch compensation): Izak Rankine
PICK 4 - ST. KILDA: Max King
PICK 5 - PORT ADELAIDE: Connor Rozee
PICK 6 - GOLD COAST: Jye Caldwell
PICK 7 - BULLDOGS: Bailey Smith
PICK 8 - SYDNEY (match PA bid): Nick Blakey
PICK 9 - ADELAIDE: Ben King
PICK 10 - GWS: Jackson Hately
PICK 11 - PORT ADELAIDE: Jordan Clark
Pick 1 - CARLTON: SAM WALSH
Best position: Balanced midfielder
Height, weight: 183cm, 74kg
Recruited from: Geelong Falcons
Projected draft range: 1 - 3
Rationale: ELITE JUNIOR MIDFIELDER.
Walsh to Carlton for me just makes sense, he is the stand out midfield prospect having had a strong season across all aspects and was a big contributor to the Falcons in his bottom age year as well.
Strength in quality midfielders is there main weakness for me which was addressed in last years draft with Dow and O'Brien who will be a quality outside mid and distributor on that left leg in time. Setterfield and Matt Kennedy will also be important cogs in the future midfield.
The attraction for Carlton is obviously the generational key forward in Lukosius but I'd back in McGovern, Curnow and McKay as key parts for the future in the forward half.
They do have Patrick Kerr on the list as well who i do believe in time will be a good player, ticks a lot of the boxes needed and than there is Casboult in reserve and likely Ben Silvagni later in the draft also.
As a balanced midfielder at junior level Walsh will be able to work alongside the likes of new captain Cripps, Dow, Kennedy and the addition of Setterfield in particular for the better part of the next decade and although he will be more outside leaning initially while he builds his size, there’s no reason to think why he can’t spend a lot of future time as an inside mid and use his class and production capacity on a wing in the seniors in 2019.
Pick 2 - GOLD COAST: JACK LUKOSIUS
Best position: Key forward
Height, weight: 194cm, 82kg
Recruited from: Woodville West Torrens
Projected draft range: 1 - 2
Rationale: BEST KP TALENT.
The modern day tall forward and an ideal player for Gold Coast to draft in the post Tom Lynch era alongside mature age draftees Josh Corbett and the flexible Chris Burgess.
Covers the ground exceptionally well and is a beautiful kick whether on goal or via a field kick using his vision to lower the eyes and hit up a target, not just with a bomb in and hope kick.
Personally, I’d take a more conservative approach with not throwing him to the wolves where his contested marking/ contested play against bigger bodies is still a work in progress.
Allow him to build his body and use his lead up capacity to advantage as a lead up half forward similar to Adelaide’s Tom Lynch and Gunston when Roughead and Franklin where both at Hawthorn in being an outlet marking target for defenders to kick to.
Pick 3 - GOLD COAST (Lynch compo): IZAK RANKINE
Best position: General forward/ inside midfield
Height, weight: 180cm, 77kg
Recruited from: West Adelaide
Projected draft range: 3 - 5
Rationale: THE GAME CHANGER.
In terms of best available here I think Rankine is the stand out best available and should go at 3 in terms of power rankings. This pick could easily turn into Rozee as well but either way the Suns go they will have a ripper.
Rankine's match winning capability and x-factor is a real upside to the rest and something the Suns could do with more of.
On the flip side the Suns list does already have a number of more outside players that they have drafted over the past few years with a number yet to break out so it is a top up of what they have.
Pick 4 - ST. KILDA: MAX KING
Best position: Key forward/ ruckman
Height, weight: 202cm, 85kg
Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons
Projected draft range: 3 - 7
Rationale: POWERFUL KEY FORWARD.
Max is a player who would have been heavily in the mix for pick 1 if not for an injury interrupted year.
Even with the midfield class of Bailey Smith available I think the Saints should go for Max King who they've spent some good time with in his draft year while rehabilitating his injury.
With his size, reach and desire to take the ball at its highest point King has become a terror for opposition defenders and although still lightly bodied and having had a lack of quality exposure in 2018 due to injury, he uses his size to gain front position and draw free kicks at the contest at under 18 level.
Natural forward traits but the ability to gain front position against men is a whole new ball game and may need to work on his endurance and working higher up the ground to combat lack of body strength.
For a 200 cm player he is clean and mobile at ground level as well but is more of a inside 50 target rather than one who works higher up the ground.
What will be on St. Kilda's mind is that they have a number of middling talls like McCartin and Bruce that may get forced out for possible limited return but King's athletic attributes over those two in particular make him extremely tempting to draft and hard to pass on.
Pick 5 - PORT ADELAIDE: CONNOR ROZEE
Best position: General forward/ outside midfield
Height, weight: 185cm, 72kg
Recruited from: North Adelaide
Projected draft range: 3 - 7
Rationale: ELITE OUTSIDE CLASS.
One of the handful of SA talents, Rozee is a damaging forward/ outside player who puts on great forward pressure and has no doubt been a reason why Port and Adelaide improved there draft hands. His stocks have risen due to good form at SANFL level with North Adelaide playing a variety of roles.
At his most damaging is a crafty medium sized forward who is strong overhead mark with a high leap and freakish at ground level. His vision to spot a player, change of direction, field and goal kicking inside 50 are elite and breaks the lines.
Due to SANFL experience would be will in the mix to fill a role fairly early at the Power in a team that is more loaded with contested ball winners in the midfield than outside ball carriers with skills by foot.
Rumours that the Suns may look to packaging him up with best mate Lukosius at pick 3 to maximize retention and going for the Justin Langer cricket coaching mantra of "character over cover drives" but with the talent still available at 3 I think there is a call for best available over a better character player.
Pick 6 - GOLD COAST: JYE CALDWELL
Best position: Inside midfield
Height, weight: 184cm, 78kg
Recruited from: Bendigo Pioneers
Projected draft range: FIRST ROUND (6 - 17)
Rationale: EXPLOSIVE INSIDE MIDFIELDER.
Injury has curtailed his draft year and stopped him from testing at the combine which is part of the reason why his draft range is so wide. However based on power rankings and if injury free, in my opinion he sits comfortably inside the top 10, pending on which team has access to which pick and there needs.
Interesting to see what the Suns do here. I'ce chopped and change dregularly in my thoughts between Caldwell and Ben King but with the recent de-listings of experienced mids Lyons, Barlow and Rischitelli (re-rookie) and losing Ablett via trade in 2017 they have a desire to change the guard in the midfield from the ground up early along with Lukosius.
Caldwell is a powerful inside midfielder, high production, explosive speed and skilled on both sides of the body he brings something explosive to a one paced midfield.
After losing Scrimshaw and KK they would like Rozee if he is still on the board here also.
Pick 7 - WESTERN BULLDOGS: BAILEY SMITH
Best position: Midfield/ Defender
Height, weight: 185cm, 82kg
Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons
Projected draft range: 3 - 7
Rationale: HIGHEST RATED INSIDE MID, VERSATILE.
Bailey Smith and the Bulldogs just fit together like a good glove for me. High production midfielder who I think plays more off HB early, he has a great balance of drive from half back, midfield grunt and insatiable work ethic.
You look at him, his attributes, the way he plays the game and he could become another Matthew Boyd type for the Bulldogs. With a good pre-season where he overcomes his Achilles problem he will be given every opportunity for an early look.
You look at the recent Bulldogs draftees under Beveridge like Dunkley, Naughton and Ed Richards in particular and they all played regular senior footy and played in the big games. Beveridge hasn't been backward in using them.
There's a question on his impact forward of centre but at that stage he is definitely best available here.
Ben King stands out for the Bulldogs here also if they look to develop a stronger spine for the next decade with Naughton, Boyd and Schache.
PICK 8 - SYDNEY ACADEMY: NICK BLAKEY
Best position: Tall utility
Height, weight: 195cm, 80kg
Recruited from: UNSW / Swans
Projected draft range: FIRST ROUND BID MATCH
Rationale: Lock and load on the Academy product here for Sydney.
iI'll take some interest in a few years once his body fills out to see if he settles as a key forward or taller midfielder but either way the Swans get a gun here.
Could get a bid as early as pick 4 from the Saints but I think if the Crows are drafting King (see below) they'd be mad not to have a crack at Blakey first.
Pick 9 - ADELAIDE: BEN KING
Best position: Key defence
Height, weight: 202cm, 85kg
Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons
Projected draft range: 6 - 10
Rationale: THE SWINGMAN.
Not too many 200 cm players cover the ground like the King boys and although it's not a make or break need for the Crows I can see this happening and than they bolster there midfield with 2 picks in the teens with guys like Stocker, RCD, O'Halloran and maybe Hately available.
Rated as the premier key defender of the draft but is just as adept as a swingman, highlighted by his form in the 2018 season where he was swung forward for the Dragons and Vic Metro after the injury to brother Max. His form during the 18's carnial was so good that he landed himself a KPF role in the Under 18's All Australian team.
As a key defender he is effective as a stopper and rebounder. As a forward he has shown to be more effective as a roamer than a stand and deliver forward like Max, which is expected as playing forward isn't his natural game style.
Pick 10 - GWS: JACKSON HATELY
Best position: Inside midfield
Height, weight: 190cm, 81kg
Recruited from: Central Districts
Projected draft range: 8 - 19
Rationale: TALL MIDFIELDER, POWERFUL BODY WITH SENIOR EXPERIENCE.
Hately has been a personal favourite of mine because of his size and exposure against men already.
Would love the stars to align and have him slide out to West Coast's pick but with a number of teams ahead of us that will maybe chase a taller midfielder/ local SA player it does seem out of reach that he'd be available.
Hately is a consistent and contested ball winner in the SANFL who is ready to make an impact having had that great senior exposure against men at Centrals. Wins the ball at will and is a clean distributor and at ground level.
Decision making under pressure still needs some work which is a common trend in young inside midfielders who are more keen to push the ball forward at all costs rather than lower the eyes to spot a team mate.
I think GWS will like the look of Hately, RCD or Stocker here, also Clark if he is available as a Heath Shaw replacement off HB.
PICK 11 – PORT ADELAIDE: JORDAN CLARK
Best position: General Defender
Height, weight: 182cm, 78 kg
Recruited from: Claremont Tigers
Projected draft range: FIRST ROUND (7 - 12 including Sydney match bid pick)
Rationale: BEST GENERAL DEFENDER / ELITE OUTSIDE TRAITS
Clark has been the big mover from WA after choosing AFL over Cricket and stepping up on the bigger stage of the National Champs, taking out WA's MVP. Firming as the first draftee to come from the state ahead of guys like Hill and Stack.
Played some league football and finals with Claremont at the back end of 2018 and acquitted himself well, playing his natural game and didn't seem overly flustered with the step up apart from maybe the quicker pace and intesnsity.
After losing Polec and Pittard in the trade period Clark's outside traits match a need for Port to a tee especially in gaining a more balanced side to there contested midfield.
Will be interesting to see what happens with Clark on draft night after only recently being diagnosed with glandular fever, something likely to strike him down for at least the first part of the pre season. Would a club risk taking him away from the family dynamic or let him stay home in WA until he is physically ready to make the move?
It's back for 2018 folks.
Disclaimer - Remember that its opinion based and opinions are my own.
I acknowledge that I'm not as knowledgeable as others but I always take an interest in the draft, do my own research and reading from multiple sources, learn traits, watch vision and ultimately try and predict how the cards will fall in the draft.
Kudos to the draft regulars, Knightmare especially who I've followed since I started getting involved in draft chats using his analysis to help me formulate ideas and firm up my own thoughts on draftees and where they land.
I love feedback and appreciate any sort of it within fair reason.
PICK 1 - CARLTON: Sam Walsh
PICK 2 - GOLD COAST: Jack Lukosius
PICK 3 - GOLD COAST (Lynch compensation): Izak Rankine
PICK 4 - ST. KILDA: Max King
PICK 5 - PORT ADELAIDE: Connor Rozee
PICK 6 - GOLD COAST: Jye Caldwell
PICK 7 - BULLDOGS: Bailey Smith
PICK 8 - SYDNEY (match PA bid): Nick Blakey
PICK 9 - ADELAIDE: Ben King
PICK 10 - GWS: Jackson Hately
PICK 11 - PORT ADELAIDE: Jordan Clark
Pick 1 - CARLTON: SAM WALSH
Best position: Balanced midfielder
Height, weight: 183cm, 74kg
Recruited from: Geelong Falcons
Projected draft range: 1 - 3
Rationale: ELITE JUNIOR MIDFIELDER.
Walsh to Carlton for me just makes sense, he is the stand out midfield prospect having had a strong season across all aspects and was a big contributor to the Falcons in his bottom age year as well.
Strength in quality midfielders is there main weakness for me which was addressed in last years draft with Dow and O'Brien who will be a quality outside mid and distributor on that left leg in time. Setterfield and Matt Kennedy will also be important cogs in the future midfield.
The attraction for Carlton is obviously the generational key forward in Lukosius but I'd back in McGovern, Curnow and McKay as key parts for the future in the forward half.
They do have Patrick Kerr on the list as well who i do believe in time will be a good player, ticks a lot of the boxes needed and than there is Casboult in reserve and likely Ben Silvagni later in the draft also.
As a balanced midfielder at junior level Walsh will be able to work alongside the likes of new captain Cripps, Dow, Kennedy and the addition of Setterfield in particular for the better part of the next decade and although he will be more outside leaning initially while he builds his size, there’s no reason to think why he can’t spend a lot of future time as an inside mid and use his class and production capacity on a wing in the seniors in 2019.
Pick 2 - GOLD COAST: JACK LUKOSIUS
Best position: Key forward
Height, weight: 194cm, 82kg
Recruited from: Woodville West Torrens
Projected draft range: 1 - 2
Rationale: BEST KP TALENT.
The modern day tall forward and an ideal player for Gold Coast to draft in the post Tom Lynch era alongside mature age draftees Josh Corbett and the flexible Chris Burgess.
Covers the ground exceptionally well and is a beautiful kick whether on goal or via a field kick using his vision to lower the eyes and hit up a target, not just with a bomb in and hope kick.
Personally, I’d take a more conservative approach with not throwing him to the wolves where his contested marking/ contested play against bigger bodies is still a work in progress.
Allow him to build his body and use his lead up capacity to advantage as a lead up half forward similar to Adelaide’s Tom Lynch and Gunston when Roughead and Franklin where both at Hawthorn in being an outlet marking target for defenders to kick to.
Pick 3 - GOLD COAST (Lynch compo): IZAK RANKINE
Best position: General forward/ inside midfield
Height, weight: 180cm, 77kg
Recruited from: West Adelaide
Projected draft range: 3 - 5
Rationale: THE GAME CHANGER.
In terms of best available here I think Rankine is the stand out best available and should go at 3 in terms of power rankings. This pick could easily turn into Rozee as well but either way the Suns go they will have a ripper.
Rankine's match winning capability and x-factor is a real upside to the rest and something the Suns could do with more of.
On the flip side the Suns list does already have a number of more outside players that they have drafted over the past few years with a number yet to break out so it is a top up of what they have.
Pick 4 - ST. KILDA: MAX KING
Best position: Key forward/ ruckman
Height, weight: 202cm, 85kg
Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons
Projected draft range: 3 - 7
Rationale: POWERFUL KEY FORWARD.
Max is a player who would have been heavily in the mix for pick 1 if not for an injury interrupted year.
Even with the midfield class of Bailey Smith available I think the Saints should go for Max King who they've spent some good time with in his draft year while rehabilitating his injury.
With his size, reach and desire to take the ball at its highest point King has become a terror for opposition defenders and although still lightly bodied and having had a lack of quality exposure in 2018 due to injury, he uses his size to gain front position and draw free kicks at the contest at under 18 level.
Natural forward traits but the ability to gain front position against men is a whole new ball game and may need to work on his endurance and working higher up the ground to combat lack of body strength.
For a 200 cm player he is clean and mobile at ground level as well but is more of a inside 50 target rather than one who works higher up the ground.
What will be on St. Kilda's mind is that they have a number of middling talls like McCartin and Bruce that may get forced out for possible limited return but King's athletic attributes over those two in particular make him extremely tempting to draft and hard to pass on.
Pick 5 - PORT ADELAIDE: CONNOR ROZEE
Best position: General forward/ outside midfield
Height, weight: 185cm, 72kg
Recruited from: North Adelaide
Projected draft range: 3 - 7
Rationale: ELITE OUTSIDE CLASS.
One of the handful of SA talents, Rozee is a damaging forward/ outside player who puts on great forward pressure and has no doubt been a reason why Port and Adelaide improved there draft hands. His stocks have risen due to good form at SANFL level with North Adelaide playing a variety of roles.
At his most damaging is a crafty medium sized forward who is strong overhead mark with a high leap and freakish at ground level. His vision to spot a player, change of direction, field and goal kicking inside 50 are elite and breaks the lines.
Due to SANFL experience would be will in the mix to fill a role fairly early at the Power in a team that is more loaded with contested ball winners in the midfield than outside ball carriers with skills by foot.
Rumours that the Suns may look to packaging him up with best mate Lukosius at pick 3 to maximize retention and going for the Justin Langer cricket coaching mantra of "character over cover drives" but with the talent still available at 3 I think there is a call for best available over a better character player.
Pick 6 - GOLD COAST: JYE CALDWELL
Best position: Inside midfield
Height, weight: 184cm, 78kg
Recruited from: Bendigo Pioneers
Projected draft range: FIRST ROUND (6 - 17)
Rationale: EXPLOSIVE INSIDE MIDFIELDER.
Injury has curtailed his draft year and stopped him from testing at the combine which is part of the reason why his draft range is so wide. However based on power rankings and if injury free, in my opinion he sits comfortably inside the top 10, pending on which team has access to which pick and there needs.
Interesting to see what the Suns do here. I'ce chopped and change dregularly in my thoughts between Caldwell and Ben King but with the recent de-listings of experienced mids Lyons, Barlow and Rischitelli (re-rookie) and losing Ablett via trade in 2017 they have a desire to change the guard in the midfield from the ground up early along with Lukosius.
Caldwell is a powerful inside midfielder, high production, explosive speed and skilled on both sides of the body he brings something explosive to a one paced midfield.
After losing Scrimshaw and KK they would like Rozee if he is still on the board here also.
Pick 7 - WESTERN BULLDOGS: BAILEY SMITH
Best position: Midfield/ Defender
Height, weight: 185cm, 82kg
Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons
Projected draft range: 3 - 7
Rationale: HIGHEST RATED INSIDE MID, VERSATILE.
Bailey Smith and the Bulldogs just fit together like a good glove for me. High production midfielder who I think plays more off HB early, he has a great balance of drive from half back, midfield grunt and insatiable work ethic.
You look at him, his attributes, the way he plays the game and he could become another Matthew Boyd type for the Bulldogs. With a good pre-season where he overcomes his Achilles problem he will be given every opportunity for an early look.
You look at the recent Bulldogs draftees under Beveridge like Dunkley, Naughton and Ed Richards in particular and they all played regular senior footy and played in the big games. Beveridge hasn't been backward in using them.
There's a question on his impact forward of centre but at that stage he is definitely best available here.
Ben King stands out for the Bulldogs here also if they look to develop a stronger spine for the next decade with Naughton, Boyd and Schache.
PICK 8 - SYDNEY ACADEMY: NICK BLAKEY
Best position: Tall utility
Height, weight: 195cm, 80kg
Recruited from: UNSW / Swans
Projected draft range: FIRST ROUND BID MATCH
Rationale: Lock and load on the Academy product here for Sydney.
iI'll take some interest in a few years once his body fills out to see if he settles as a key forward or taller midfielder but either way the Swans get a gun here.
Could get a bid as early as pick 4 from the Saints but I think if the Crows are drafting King (see below) they'd be mad not to have a crack at Blakey first.
Pick 9 - ADELAIDE: BEN KING
Best position: Key defence
Height, weight: 202cm, 85kg
Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons
Projected draft range: 6 - 10
Rationale: THE SWINGMAN.
Not too many 200 cm players cover the ground like the King boys and although it's not a make or break need for the Crows I can see this happening and than they bolster there midfield with 2 picks in the teens with guys like Stocker, RCD, O'Halloran and maybe Hately available.
Rated as the premier key defender of the draft but is just as adept as a swingman, highlighted by his form in the 2018 season where he was swung forward for the Dragons and Vic Metro after the injury to brother Max. His form during the 18's carnial was so good that he landed himself a KPF role in the Under 18's All Australian team.
As a key defender he is effective as a stopper and rebounder. As a forward he has shown to be more effective as a roamer than a stand and deliver forward like Max, which is expected as playing forward isn't his natural game style.
Pick 10 - GWS: JACKSON HATELY
Best position: Inside midfield
Height, weight: 190cm, 81kg
Recruited from: Central Districts
Projected draft range: 8 - 19
Rationale: TALL MIDFIELDER, POWERFUL BODY WITH SENIOR EXPERIENCE.
Hately has been a personal favourite of mine because of his size and exposure against men already.
Would love the stars to align and have him slide out to West Coast's pick but with a number of teams ahead of us that will maybe chase a taller midfielder/ local SA player it does seem out of reach that he'd be available.
Hately is a consistent and contested ball winner in the SANFL who is ready to make an impact having had that great senior exposure against men at Centrals. Wins the ball at will and is a clean distributor and at ground level.
Decision making under pressure still needs some work which is a common trend in young inside midfielders who are more keen to push the ball forward at all costs rather than lower the eyes to spot a team mate.
I think GWS will like the look of Hately, RCD or Stocker here, also Clark if he is available as a Heath Shaw replacement off HB.
PICK 11 – PORT ADELAIDE: JORDAN CLARK
Best position: General Defender
Height, weight: 182cm, 78 kg
Recruited from: Claremont Tigers
Projected draft range: FIRST ROUND (7 - 12 including Sydney match bid pick)
Rationale: BEST GENERAL DEFENDER / ELITE OUTSIDE TRAITS
Clark has been the big mover from WA after choosing AFL over Cricket and stepping up on the bigger stage of the National Champs, taking out WA's MVP. Firming as the first draftee to come from the state ahead of guys like Hill and Stack.
Played some league football and finals with Claremont at the back end of 2018 and acquitted himself well, playing his natural game and didn't seem overly flustered with the step up apart from maybe the quicker pace and intesnsity.
After losing Polec and Pittard in the trade period Clark's outside traits match a need for Port to a tee especially in gaining a more balanced side to there contested midfield.
Will be interesting to see what happens with Clark on draft night after only recently being diagnosed with glandular fever, something likely to strike him down for at least the first part of the pre season. Would a club risk taking him away from the family dynamic or let him stay home in WA until he is physically ready to make the move?
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