GFC ongoing rebuild

[Ricketz]

I did last year and none of our already good kids stood up to become very good players (they are injured). Stewart, Parfitt and Zuthrie all had good years but they have quite a few steps to go before being very good players.

Most other clubs have a few very good players who are under 25 as well as potentially good. We only have potentially good at this stage and most of those have question marks.



The club needs to drop down, we at least need 2 good KPFs and a good ruck.

Losing prelims isnt what I'd consider a success. You might get the odd serviceable tall from free agency or from trading but you are very unlikely to get a very good KPF or ruck.

Rebuild? When? Now? When we have the best midfield in the competition and one of the stronger backlines? Seriously, if that is what you are suggesting you should be following Collingwood.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

He doesn't really have to have a shit year for others to go past him though.
We bat deep in the middle already and have a couple of youngsters coming through + Guthrie could get back into form, Cocky could get injury free and turn it on & will Blitz finally show something in the middle.
Unfortunately I think the way it is for Menegola, he has to prove himself more than others.

I don’t agree with a single word here. Seems to me there’s a bias against him affecting your thoughts. Humid he has a good year not many will go past him.

 

[Spazz Cat]

I don’t agree with a single word here. Seems to me there’s a bias against him affecting your thoughts. Humid he has a good year not many will go past him.

I'm not sold on him that's for sure. But it's more so how I perceive the club to think.
GHS somehow got games before him at the beginning of the year despite Menegola having an awesome back end 2016 for a first year player.
Also this is just my opinion but for us to be more successful and develop a better style for the G, Menegola, Scooter and Blitz is too much for one midfield.
Only one of them can play IMO unless Menegola can get into the game more at Half Forward.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

Obviously nothing can be done about it now but I just wish we could’ve got a useable pick for Lang. I was rewatching some of the Sydney final and he was very good. We might’ve been able to grab Sam Hayes with pick 40 the blues had. Anyway we move on but a young ruck developing with the young mids would be great.
I hope all players on the cats list can become good afl players for the club. At this stage there are a number fighting for their careers.
House, Abbott, Black, bed by, Stanley, GHS and others due to injury Gregson and McCarthy.

Some individual trades like Stanley and some draft picks haven’t worked. But overall the strategy is one I like. The gap is being filled between the stars and the rest. 2012-14 we had aging stars and poor players. The last couple of years have improved the middle layers and added to the top.

We will need to replace the top with more class but we have better youth than we’ve had for a while. The big thing we all want is finals redemption. I have very little doubt this team will make top 4 again but I have no idea how they’ll go in the finals.

 

[Warhorse]

We did well with last years rookie draft and this years national draft. We still dont have enough specialist small forwards on the list. All we have is Miers and Jones we need one or possibly two more. Nothing shits me more than seeing midfielders forced to play small forward when it is obviously they lack foward craft such as Parsons and Parfitt.

I would have liked a ruck in the rookie draft to develop as we dont have one on our list.

What also needs to be considered is who can be cut at the end of next season. We want to be the best we cant afford to carry plodders such as GHS, Cunico and Hayball on the list. I would be looking to cut Mccarthy and possibly Gregson as well. Neither are natural forwards and dont do anywhere near enough.

He doesn't really have to have a shit year for others to go past him though.
We bat deep in the middle already and have a couple of youngsters coming through + Guthrie could get back into form, Cocky could get injury free and turn it on & will Blitz finally show something in the middle.
Unfortunately I think the way it is for Menegola, he has to prove himself more than others.

The way it should be after he last few finals

 

[year of the cat]

A bit like a comment I made about Narkle recently .. I thought he had played that role is a junior but was assured by Nakia that he played a mid role .... yet can anyone see him pushing into our midfield? Most players have to use these less key roles as entry to the side. ..and we have lacked in have options available.. so Parsons came in to the side in that FP/high forward role.
As you have mentioned we have added a lot of talent ..to stay in the side he will have to add more to his game .. spots are like hens teeth this year.. most players will be under the pump.

I could be wrong but I was under the impression that Narkle played predominantly as a midfielder too. But I really don't know a lot about him. I think he's one that will be given a fair bit of leeway next season post ACL to find his feet. We saw with Thurlow this year that it's difficult to find form straight away. Hopefully he's much better after a strong preseason.

I think the interest this year will be with our talls. Will we see Gardner debut and be serviceable? Will we see ongoing improvement from Buzza and Esava such that they can be considered legitimate long term options? Are House and Abbott just insurance or do they have role to play?

 

[Ratcat]

Worst and smallest list of 2nd class talls in the AFL.
That's why l was all over Crameri.
Can see us going indirect around the boundaries to score unless Crameri and Hawkins are in the same side and find form together.

 

[strauchnyy]

The way I look at it in terms of what players we need.. is to create our best 22 line up in say, 2022 and see where the gaps are.

Predicted 22 in 2022 based on players currently on the list (who I think will still be there):

FB: Bews - Gardiner - Stewart
HB: C.Guthrie - ______ - Z.Guthrie
C: Cockatoo - Constable - Duncan
HF: Parsons - _______ - Kelly
FF: Fogarty - Buzza - Miers
Fol: ______ - Dangerfield - Parfitt
Int: Blicavs - Kolo - Thurlow - ______

Others who I think won't be there due to injury: McCarthy, Menzel, Gregson.

I'm very unsure on Gardiner too. So to me, we need:

1. a full back (maybe we can turn Blicavs into one?)
2. a CHB
3. a CHF
4. an elite full time mid to take the selwood/danger mantle as our best player.
5. a ruck.

I think we can get a ruck in FA/trade. But we need early picks to get the rest. We will have first round picks from now until 2022 but we need them now to compliment the rest of our team. We are well stocked for medium/small defenders and utility players but lack the A grade class across the ground.

I think we need to try to get three top 15 picks in the next two drafts to get 1 gun mid, 1 gun tall defender and 1 gun CHF.

Still... I think we are going to fall to the mid table of the ladder with our above list and decisions will need to be made on how we go towards the next full rebuild.

 

[BORIS332]

Done. You can see that we have a hell of a lot of kids between 19-21. Only 1 that's 24 (though Bews turns 24 in December).

This is reflective of our three drafts from 2011-2013. Drafting blokes like Hamling, Kersten, Lang and Jansen with relatively early picks has hurt us. I know most of them left for better opportunity, but that’s a three-year gap on our list now. Of course, we can patch it up with FAs but that’s not ideal.

 

[BORIS332]

The way I look at it in terms of what players we need.. is to create our best 22 line up in say, 2022 and see where the gaps are.

Predicted 22 in 2022 based on players currently on the list (who I think will still be there):

FB: Bews - Gardiner - Stewart
HB: C.Guthrie - ______ - Z.Guthrie
C: Cockatoo - Constable - Duncan
HF: Parsons - _______ - Kelly
FF: Fogarty - Buzza - Miers
Fol: ______ - Dangerfield - Parfitt
Int: Blicavs - Kolo - Thurlow - ______

Others who I think won't be there due to injury: McCarthy, Menzel, Gregson.

I'm very unsure on Gardiner too. So to me, we need:

1. a full back (maybe we can turn Blicavs into one?)
2. a CHB
3. a CHF
4. an elite full time mid to take the selwood/danger mantle as our best player.
5. a ruck.

I think we can get a ruck in FA/trade. But we need early picks to get the rest. We will have first round picks from now until 2022 but we need them now to compliment the rest of our team. We are well stocked for medium/small defenders and utility players but lack the A grade class across the ground.

I think we need to try to get three top 15 picks in the next two drafts to get 1 gun mid, 1 gun tall defender and 1 gun CHF.

Still... I think we are going to fall to the mid table of the ladder with our above list and decisions will need to be made on how we go towards the next full rebuild.

Very, very early days but I think any of Constable, Fogarty, Parfitt and Cockatoo could become elite mids. In fact, Constable would be my front runner there - he’s had huge junior numbers, matched up directly to LDU, and beat LDU and A.Brayshaw in his school’s B&F.

 

[BORIS332]

Obviously nothing can be done about it now but I just wish we could’ve got a useable pick for Lang. I was rewatching some of the Sydney final and he was very good. We might’ve been able to grab Sam Hayes with pick 40 the blues had. Anyway we move on but a young ruck developing with the young mids would be great.
I hope all players on the cats list can become good afl players for the club. At this stage there are a number fighting for their careers.
House, Abbott, Black, bed by, Stanley, GHS and others due to injury Gregson and McCarthy.

Some individual trades like Stanley and some draft picks haven’t worked. But overall the strategy is one I like. The gap is being filled between the stars and the rest. 2012-14 we had aging stars and poor players. The last couple of years have improved the middle layers and added to the top.

We will need to replace the top with more class but we have better youth than we’ve had for a while. The big thing we all want is finals redemption. I have very little doubt this team will make top 4 again but I have no idea how they’ll go in the finals.

Not sure if I’m missing something, but we got pick 58 for Lang which we used on Miers. We also upgraded a pick next year in the ‘super draft’.

 

[thejester]

I'm not sold on him that's for sure. But it's more so how I perceive the club to think.
GHS somehow got games before him at the beginning of the year despite Menegola having an awesome back end 2016 for a first year player.
Also this is just my opinion but for us to be more successful and develop a better style for the G, Menegola, Scooter and Blitz is too much for one midfield.
Only one of them can play IMO unless Menegola can get into the game more at Half Forward.

It's not necessarily a direct measure, but if you look at the centre square data Baudolino collected in most of Menegola's best games he barely started in the centre - I think the big exception was the draw against GWS where he did 12/24 because we had so much of the starting midfield out.

Round 23 against GWS: 3/27
Round 21 against Collingwood: 1/23
SF against Sydney: 5/24
Round 20 against Sydney: 7/27

etc etc

Don't want to derail the thread further but I think it unlikely he'll be displaced from the side, especially with Motlop and Lang gone. He had two really bad finals, one really good one, and played some big games we needed to win in the H&A.

 

[Deep]

The way I look at it in terms of what players we need.. is to create our best 22 line up in say, 2022 and see where the gaps are.

Predicted 22 in 2022 based on players currently on the list (who I think will still be there):

FB: Bews - Gardiner - Stewart
HB: C.Guthrie - ______ - Z.Guthrie
C: Cockatoo - Constable - Duncan
HF: Parsons - _______ - Kelly
FF: Fogarty - Buzza - Miers
Fol: ______ - Dangerfield - Parfitt
Int: Blicavs - Kolo - Thurlow - ______

Others who I think won't be there due to injury: McCarthy, Menzel, Gregson.

I'm very unsure on Gardiner too. So to me, we need:

1. a full back (maybe we can turn Blicavs into one?)
2. a CHB
3. a CHF
4. an elite full time mid to take the selwood/danger mantle as our best player.
5. a ruck.

I think we can get a ruck in FA/trade. But we need early picks to get the rest. We will have first round picks from now until 2022 but we need them now to compliment the rest of our team. We are well stocked for medium/small defenders and utility players but lack the A grade class across the ground.

I think we need to try to get three top 15 picks in the next two drafts to get 1 gun mid, 1 gun tall defender and 1 gun CHF.

Still... I think we are going to fall to the mid table of the ladder with our above list and decisions will need to be made on how we go towards the next full rebuild.

Thurlow won't be here in 5 years yet alone 2 years if he's a bench player

 

[Turbocat]

I could be wrong but I was under the impression that Narkle played predominantly as a midfielder too. But I really don't know a lot about him. I think he's one that will be given a fair bit of leeway next season post ACL to find his feet. We saw with Thurlow this year that it's difficult to find form straight away. Hopefully he's much better after a strong preseason.

I think the interest this year will be with our talls. Will we see Gardner debut and be serviceable? Will we see ongoing improvement from Buzza and Esava such that they can be considered legitimate long term options? Are House and Abbott just insurance or do they have role to play?

My memory was he played forward but I'm not disputing that I'm wrong on that ..simply that Narkle will struggle to get in our side as a pure mid..no matter where he played in junior comp. He will have to be outstanding to get past the group like Ablett,Danger,Selwood,Duncan, Menegola and we have just added Kelly and Constable who will being playing as mid quick imo.

On Gardner and House .... and Buzza and Sav .. Id hope one or two of these guys develop enough to push in.. But id doubt they will just make a spot for them in this win now construction that our best 22 is ...they must demand selection.It would be great if after the PS that they all playing well enough that the MC are really pressured. I doubt there is too much pressure presently.

 

[cynical]

Absolute piffle.

will be proven again in the next few years when we continually fall short of a flag

 

[cynical]

Here's the current premier's list of U25's.

Nathan Broad
Jacob Townsend
Brandon Ellis
Kamdyn Mcintosh
Nick Vlastuin
Toby Nankervis
Nathan Drummond
Jayden Short
Ivan Soldo
Oleg Markov
Daniel Butler
Jason Castagna
Callum Moore
Connor Menadue
Corey Ellis
Mabior Chol
Daniel Rioli
Jack Graham
Ryan Garthwaite
Tyson Stengle
Shai Bolton

Plenty of premiership players listed there. But I wouldn't call any of them 'very good' at this point in their careers.



Sticking with the example of the reigning premiers, they went with just one key forward of any note (J. Riewoldt) throughout this year's successful finals series.

And their 'good ruck' (T. Nankervis) had mostly comparable numbers to our own Z. Smith across season 2017. Smith definitively won more hitouts and clearances, Nankervis was clearly ahead on marks and tackles, and all the other numbers were extremely close.

So it appears to me that this year's premiers are basically in just as much trouble as we are if you're predicting each team's future fortunes according to the measures you have outlined.

I dont know the Tigers that well but Rioli and Vlastuin are very good imo, their list of under 25s are certainly better than ours.

Winning a flag doesnt make them structurally perfect either. They are a good balanced team but not a great one.

Richmond have 13 players under 25 who have played 10 games or more, we have 10 which includes perennially injured Gregson, McCarthy and Cocky, also has GHS in there.

 

[cynical]

Rebuild? When? Now? When we have the best midfield in the competition and one of the stronger backlines? Seriously, if that is what you are suggesting you should be following Collingwood.

Stronger backlines? it's an average one, our midfield lacks good outside players and our forward line is basically Hawkins.

It's not a team that will win a flag.

 

[goyoucatters]

Stronger backlines? it's an average one, our midfield lacks good outside players and our forward line is basically Hawkins.

It's not a team that will win a flag.

Richmond's list (even as they entered last year's finals series) didn't look capable of winning a flag to me.

And I would have said the same about the Doggies as they began their successful finals campaign in 2016.

Even those who will now champion the 'progress' of these teams in the lead-up to their respective triumphs have to admit the benefit of hindsight.

As the era of diluted talent across the competition really takes hold, it's hard to envisage any team (even the Giants now, as they bleed top picks) that will operate without supposedly glaring deficiencies.

In the end, we're in the mix with a fair few others to be a contender again next season. And if Richmond can lose three consecutive EF's (and then miss the finals completely) before returning to win the whole shebang easily a year later, it is simply not possible to state with certainty that our next finals campaigns are all doomed to failure.

Footy has always been a strange and complex beast. And if the last two premierships don't underline for every footy fan just how unpredictable it has all become these days, then I'm fairly sure nothing ever will.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

will be proven again in the next few years when we continually fall short of a flag

The club could choose to drop down. It doesn't need to drop down.
A view I'm confident they share.

Stronger backlines? it's an average one, our midfield lacks good outside players and our forward line is basically Hawkins.

It's not a team that will win a flag.

Lordy. The sheer simplicity of this is astounding.
Who's to say that our new draftees don't help get us closer and then the 2018 draftee/trades do likewise again. Football is never static and things can change very quickly.

Richmond's list (even as they entered last year's finals series) didn't look capable of winning a flag to me.

And I would have said the same about the Doggies as they began their successful finals campaign in 2016.

Even those who will now champion the 'progress' of these teams in the lead-up to their respective triumphs have to admit the benefit of hindsight.

As the era of diluted talent across the competition really takes hold, it's hard to envisage any team (even the Giants now, as they bleed top picks) that will operate without supposedly glaring deficiencies.

In the end, we're in the mix with a fair few others to be a contender again next season. And if Richmond can lose three consecutive EF's (and then miss the finals completely) before returning to win the whole shebang easily a year later, it is simply not possible to state with certainty that our next finals campaigns are all doomed to failure.

Footy has always been a strange and complex beast. And if the last two premierships don't underline for every footy fan just how unpredictable it has all become these days, then I'm fairly sure nothing ever will.

This. So much this.

 

[goyoucatters]

I dont know the Tigers that well but Rioli and Vlastuin are very good imo, their list of under 25s are certainly better than ours.

I do think those two look talented. And Graham (based on very limited viewing) looks a good prospect as well.

But none of them would fit the 'very good' epithet, in my view.

Their list of U25's might be better than ours. But it's not by any great order of magnitude. If you're calling our group 'pretty shocking', there's could only be seen as 'average', at best.

Winning a flag doesnt make them structurally perfect either. They are a good balanced team but not a great one.

Absolutely. Given they don't have two KPF's and a greatly better ruck than ours, we would certainly agree about that. But it didn't stop them winning the flag.

Just like the Doggies didn't falter without two quality KPF's (and with Jordan Roughead as their ruckman) in 2016.

Tow good balanced teams without being great. And both ended up coming from the clouds to salute on the big day.

Richmond have 13 players under 25 who have played 10 games or more, we have 10 which includes perennially injured Gregson, McCarthy and Cocky, also has GHS in there.

Simply having more players under 25 playing a greater number of games can't possibly be seen as a strong predictor of future success. When the number of current players at Carltank under 25 who have played 10 games or more is 18, I don't think it's a helpful measure of where a list is heading.

 

[Warhorse]

Future key forward - Mc Cartin, or a free agent. We are not going to get a draft pick low enough to get a good one. We need to get creative with what we want with our forwards. For years small forwards have been under rated now its starting to turn and more teams are taking them early.

I wish we grabbed kietel as a rookie. He is servicable as both a forward and a back and is still young.

Both Dangerfield and Cockatoo are not traditional small forwards. Both play well out of the square as a full forward and have explosive pace. I dont think ablett would be best used out of the square. He is such a good user of the ball you want it in his hands around the Half Forward line like earlier in his career will sometimes pushing deep forward or into the midfield.

I see kelly as a wingman or even in the centresquare. He plays inside and outside and is a dynamic player.

Blicavs is the big ?? I dont see how him, Menegola and selwood can be part of our midfield rotations

Constable is a good long term prospect. If selwood misses he should get a taste. I think selwood only has potentially a year or two left. His body must nearly be destroyed. Who knows?

Its funny not long ago we didnt have enough inside midfielders now we are struggling to fit in the one team.

The best midfielders seem to only carry the one ballpig/wrecking ball (kennedy/fyfe/selwood/cotchin this year) type. The one explosive or dynamic type who can play inside or outside(martin/dangerfield/mundy). A couple of outside accumulator with good footskills (neale/duncan).

Our midfield next season on paper best in the league. Easily in my opinion.

If cockatoo can step up to his talent level it could be scary good. I actually like him in the centre. He might not get many touches but he hunts the man and really dumps players into the turf. Has a real intimidation factor about him, if he player 15 years ago he would have been like byron pickett.

I see our defensive as a weak link. Henderson has question marks. Taylor is a warrior but is slwing down rapidly. Tuohy and stewart are suspect under pressure. Kolo may not make it. Asks a lot of our midfield to run definsively to cover our liabilities. Probably the reason why blicavs and menegola get a game to help cover that space.

The other issue is the lack of nasty in iur players. Cockatoo has it but after that? The old geelong team had it in spades with mooney, scarlett. Hawthorn had it as well. Our players avoid hurting other players if they can. I dont see them flying knee first for marks like some of the hawthorn players do.

This is reflective of our three drafts from 2011-2013. Drafting blokes like Hamling, Kersten, Lang and Jansen with relatively early picks has hurt us. I know most of them left for better opportunity, but that’s a three-year gap on our list now. Of course, we can patch it up with FAs but that’s not ideal.

Lang hurts. A lot. The others not so much as that draft had GWS plunder the first round.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

Not sure if I’m missing something, but we got pick 58 for Lang which we used on Miers. We also upgraded a pick next year in the ‘super draft’.

Did he? Oh I must have missed that I thought we already had that pick, I just wish we had another pick in that range to add to the players we got. Who knows how it'll all turn out but it just felt like a good draft to have those 2nd and 3rd picks.

 

[BORIS332]

Did he? Oh I must have missed that I thought we already had that pick, I just wish we had another pick in that range to add to the players we got. Who knows how it'll all turn out but it just felt like a good draft to have those 2nd and 3rd picks.

I agree, I feel that area was a sweet spot of sorts. Especially with the likes of Constable, Miers, Worpel, Hayes, Garner.

 

[Whit3y]

Very, very early days but I think any of Constable, Fogarty, Parfitt and Cockatoo could become elite mids.

ease up champ

 

[BotsMaster]

When will this rebuild end?