Greyhound Thread

[Oaksnaf]

Yep.


Have column A as date
Column B as track
Column C as Race
Column D as Selection (so #)
Column E as YOUR ODDS
Column F as TAB odds
Column G as Result...1st,2nd,3rd,4th, unplaced
Column H as Dividend (so if 1st.... write winning price)


You will do that for EACH runner.

And after many races, you can sort through your selections by odds and check to see the strike rate of your markets.

Keep track of Exacta dividends:

DateTrackRaceResultReturn1st2nd26/07/2009Sale1LOSS$01stX


As an example.

It can become time consuming, well if you fall behind on your data it can.


But you will get a better picture of how your actually judging the race.


Slowly you will learn what factors influence your own price and which factors you should consider. And those considerations should change the price.


Remember you only want to bet on VALUE races.

 

[tazlgnd]

cranbourne race 10

1 27%= $3.70 2nd, $2, $1.30
4 21%= $4.76 1st $8.70 $1.40
7 20%= $5 4th $2.8-, $1.40
8 15%= $6.66
2 10%= $10 3rd $9.60, $2.10
5 4%= $25
3 3%= $33.33
6 1%= $100

 

[Oaksnaf]

Almost double the odds there for your second selection. Your top pick was way undervalue and proved true by losing.

Now imagine if you had of just stuck to backing your TOP pick at ANY price.

Would be 1/4 with $1.6 profit.

Intsead you are 1/1 with $4.6 profit.

Huge difference.


You would have also nabbed that exacta multiple times. Because you would of boxed them, but also gone 4 - 1,7 and 4/f with the VALUE

so for $5.50 on exacta's you would have returned $11.20.

Plus a small WIN bet too. 50c. + $4.00 again.

An easy $10 from that race. With LITTLE risk.

 

[tazlgnd]

thanks oaks gonna set that up now

Race 11
1 30%= $3.33
6 25%= $4
8 25%= $4
10 10%= $10
3 3%= $33.33
4 3%= $33.33
2 2%= $50
5 2%= $50

 

[tazlgnd]

Almost double the odds there for your second selection. Your top pick was way undervalue and proved true by losing.

Now imagine if you had of just stuck to backing your TOP pick at ANY price.

Would be 1/4 with $1.6 profit.

Intsead you are 1/1 with $4.6 profit.

Huge difference.


You would have also nabbed that exacta multiple times. Because you would of boxed them, but also gone 4 - 1,7 and 4/f with the VALUE

so for $5.50 on exacta's you would have returned $11.20.

Plus a small WIN bet too. 50c. + $4.00 again.

An easy $10 from that race. With LITTLE risk.

so how would i go about deciding what to bet on and what to leave? do i compare my odds to tab odds and find the value?

 

[tazlgnd]

DATE TRACK RACE SELECTION # MY ODDS RESULT DIVIDEND

they are the headings i have put in because i didnt get what to put in the TAB odds column, also how would i use this information in the long run?

 

[Oaksnaf]

Well you would preferably use your betfair account to WIN bet on value.

Don't lay as you won't want to over-complicate what your doing. At least that way you won't lay winners and become discouraged. YOu would just watch them win without them impacting on your WIN bets.


The exotics are to be played if there is value in one of your top 2-3 selections. For obvious reasons you would want to pick more winners from your top 2 selections than anything else.

When you can see the market and what it will do. YOu can bet accordingly.

For instance, if you can see that Hot Terrain $8 was going to be your value pick (2nd pick) you would ROVER that selection with FIELD.
You would also BOX with 1st selection.

And then stand-out with your 1st selection for $1.

The idea here, is that if you base your exotics around your VALUE, then the exotics will be VALUE..... because predicting exotic dividends is a hard game, and well, not worthwhile unless you have computer programs that can hit specific amounts to each possible outcome (Those who play that game mainly target the ponies).



You would LEAVE out races with POOR value. And OPEN races. Which is where you have $4.50/$5.00/$7.60/$8. Because you really, don't have a definate idea. And when you can see that your market predicts a close race, there isn't much point in getting involved. Not at that S/R either.

To start off.

Target your TOP selection for VALUE win bets. Don't bet if its UNDER your odds.

Target exotic races where there is VALUE in your top 2-3 selections. BOX top 2. Target the value runner with the field.

If your value gets up, the exotic should pay ok relative to the price and amount of value.


Take it simple and one step at a time. Understand whether you got the race wrong, compare your market with the starting price and other guides. Keep track of your stats. And well, you have a good starting point and you are one step ahead of the rest of the game, because your starting to find your own EDGE.

And the EDGE is what makes winners.

 

[Oaksnaf]

DATE TRACK RACE SELECTION # MY ODDS RESULT DIVIDEND

they are the headings i have put in because i didnt get what to put in the TAB odds column, also how would i use this information in the long run?

Ok.


After a few months you would have done plenty of races and had several runners run at the same price.

You would then look at your price range. Say $2.00-$2.50

You will then be able to look at how many were VALUE and whether the strike-rate was 40% or above.

If your showing a profit on OVERS from $2.00-$2.50 then GREAT. It means you have a HIGH strike rate and have found an edge. And this will be great for exotics. Especially since you will only need to spend $3-$6 per race roughly.

If your VALUE runners don't win enough races, or just never win at all. Then something is obviously wrong. You may then find that your odds range $4.00-$5.50 shows profit with VALUE.

Basically.

You will be able to compare your own findings against the general punter and if your odds are VALUE and winning. Then your going great guns.


You'll understand it if you keep the data. Because you will be able to see it for yourself, rather than trying to imagine it.

 

[tazlgnd]

RACE 12

# chance my odds
2 45 2.222222222
7 20 5
4 15 6.666666667
1 10 10
5 5 20
6 3 33.33333333
8 1 100
3 1 100

TOP SELECTION currently $16.40/$3.40
SECOND SELECTION $13.30/$1.90
THIRD SELECTION $4.20/$1.70
FOURTH SELECTION $15.90/$4


WIN #2
EXACTA #2,7,4
#2/f
#2,7,4,1

are they appropriate bets alot of value here i think?

 

[Oaksnaf]

Make sure you know what track and race it is from and where they finished.

Annoying I know. But at least over time you will get a picture painted.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Remember you don't have to have your market to look anything like a TAB market. Because in Race 11 you basically told yourself that #1,6,8 had an EQUAL chance in winning.

In reality, is that what your studying came up with? And did you study the race enough to understand why they came up the SAME?

Would have been a NO bet race for sure.

 

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 12

# chance my odds
2 45 2.222222222
7 20 5
4 15 6.666666667
1 10 10
5 5 20
6 3 33.33333333
8 1 100
3 1 100

TOP SELECTION currently $16.40/$3.40
SECOND SELECTION $13.30/$1.90
THIRD SELECTION $4.20/$1.70
FOURTH SELECTION $15.90/$4


WIN #2
EXACTA #2,7,4
#2/f
#2,7,4,1

are they appropriate bets alot of value here i think?

There is poor value in boxing bets over the long run. YOu need to target your value.

Since there is a LOT of value in #2.

#2-F $1
F-2 50c

Win #2

 

[Oaksnaf]

EXCELLENT work Taz.

For $13 you would have returned $36.45

Lots of value in #2 and you have targetted your bets accordingly. Well done.

 

[tazlgnd]

EXCELLENT work Taz.

For $13 you would have returned $36.45

Lots of value in #2 and you have targetted your bets accordingly. Well done.

thanks heaps for your help it is so much clearer when you do market framing. i still dont understand how to structure the excel this is what i have done for the first race i framed.
# CHANCE ODDS RESULT DIV


12-Oct 3 22 4.545454545 4th X
4 18 5.555555556 2nd $2.40
5 16 6.25
7 15 6.666666667 1st $8/$2
8 11 9.090909091
6 9 11.11111111 3rd $5.40
1 8 12.5
2 1 100

 

[Oaksnaf]

A..... .... B ........ C ........ D ..... ...... E ... ......... F ..... G ........ H.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DATE .. TRACK ...RACE .. # ... Your Odds ... TAB odds... Result .... Overs

Overs (IF: F2>E2) Value if True = OVER Value if False = LAY

 

[Oaksnaf]

thanks heaps for your help it is so much clearer when you do market framing.

You will be amazed at the amount of races that you end up leaving alone. Whereas before you may have been inclined to bet since you have studied the form.

Because realistically we can all find a favoured selection in any race in any code. It is a matter of understanding whether we can find an edge in those selections over the long-run that will benefit us. Otherwise we are just another tipster.

Once you start to understand what influences your market and you start to define your actualy reasoning of odds, that is when you will get consistent value rather than extreme differences between highs and lows in OVERS/UNDERS.



Then with your value. You will start to expand from exacta's to trifecta's by having

F/2/F 50c ($24)
2/F/F $1 ($48)
2/1,4,7/1,4,7 $1 ($6)
1,4,7/2/1,4,7 50c ($3)
2/1,4,7/F $1 ($18)
1,4,7/2/F 50c ($9)

OUT $108
IN $742.60
Etc Etc

But with the flexi option you can bet with what you are more comfortable with, rather than dealing with 100% and 50%.



Exacta's are good to start with, because there are plenty of big dividends.
And it is less complicated when your just starting.

 

[tazlgnd]

so what do i do with all this data when i collect all the markets i create? what is the benefit?

cant I just do what i have been doing tonight and framing a market and then deciding whether or not to bet?

 

[Oaksnaf]

so what do i do with all this data when i collect all the markets i create? what is the benefit?

cant I just do what i have been doing tonight and framing a market and then deciding whether or not to bet?

No.

Because in the long run you can see how accurate your markets were. And you will then begin to see what kind of odds win you races at what tracks you do best. What grade. How often OPEN races win/lose. How often your $20+ chances win.

You will get the big picture, rather than the day to day picture.

Then you can refine your bets again.

 

[tazlgnd]

No.

Because in the long run you can see how accurate your markets were. And you will then begin to see what kind of odds win you races at what tracks you do best. What grade. How often OPEN races win/lose. How often your $20+ chances win.

You will get the big picture, rather than the day to day picture.

Then you can refine your bets again.

oh i get it

i will try and keep track for a while and see what happens.

 

[Oaksnaf]

oh i get it

i will try and keep track for a while and see what happens.

Keeping records will help you understand how your going. Your account might tell you how much you have won. But it won't give you a break down of stats. You need to record those stats to understand how and why you won.

But yeah. Stick at it. If you can get a clearer picture doing the form now.... then who knows you might be teaching me some things!!

 

[tazlgnd]

7 30 3.333333333
4 20 5
5 16 6.25
2 12 8.333333333
3 12 8.333333333
6 9 11.11111111
1 4 25
8 2 50

gawler race 1

 

[tazlgnd]

race 2

5 45 2.222222222
2 20 5
6 16 6.25
8 6 16.66666667
7 6 16.66666667
1 5 20
3 1 100
4 1 100

 

[tazlgnd]

laying the favourite race 4 at the gardens

1,5,7:1,3,4,5,7:1,3,4,5,7

 

[half_back_flank]

Just wondering if anyone knew if there was a place where i could find archived watchdog form guides? I have started collecting them myself (only in the last week tho) but is there any place where i could find them for the last three months or so?
cheers.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Ah Monday morning is just around the corner and of course Geelong greyhounds are in action.

How are those markets going Taz? Remember, we have to be smarter than the rest of the game as it is one big competition when it comes to markets.

Geelong Race 1

#1 $10
#2 $41
#3 $8
#4 $15
#5 $18
#6 $23
#7 $33
#8 $1.80

As you can see, I have a HUGE favourite in this race. #8 REBEL KATIE...Where's Pedro X Shahtoon owned by Galea and Spiteri. Has shown some promise to date. But it's not really about what this greyhound has shown. It is the simple fact that none of the other greyhounds have shown anything to date that would see them challenge the perfectly positioned #8 REBEL KATIE.

Let's be realistic here. Every man and his dog is going to back this selection. BUT being the first race of the day at Geelong and being a maiden. There is every chance that plenty of people are not going to enjoy backing an odds on....two's on? favourite.


Maybe if we are lucky, we might find the VALUE in laying all other selections except for REBEL KATIE on betfair. Because sometimes there is an EDGE in the lay market. Don't be reactive. Be proactive and produce your own market. You might be suprised.


I'm only learning though. So this will take time.



But Race 1 is a weak maiden. Of main 3 chances. 2 have best boxes. #1,8. You can load up on your exotics.

#8-3 $4
#8-1 $2.50
#1,3-8 $1


REBEL KATIE has to figure, and we don't want to run around trying to cover bets to get a collect. We need to be confident in our market and enjoy the fruits if the rest of the punting world get the market wrong.