Head to Head: NAB GF Crows v Saints

[NikkiNoo]

Hi All,

Here is the Head to Head that we requested for the Adelaide Board. I have posted it here as well for you all to enjoy. Many thanks to mad-saint-guy and Southerntakeover for the time they have taken to provide their thoughts on each team.

Enjoy

First up the Saints perspective

The story so far…
The Saints have pulled through when all looked lost several times so far. In the opening match we came up against a near full-strength Richmond side with roughly half of our best 22 missing. However some new faces managed to get us across the line comfortably against the Tigers. The next week we played the all-conquering (yet relatively depleted) Cats and we came away with a thrilling win with the youngsters impressing again. The semi final against Essendon was a very tight affair, with the Bombers looking to get off to a good start with the new coach, however we held firm under pressure with the help of some returning stars and managed a tight victory.

Ross Lyon’s game plan finally seems to be sinking in and we’re seeing the attacking side as well as the defensive side now. Adelaide systematically dismantled St Kilda’s all-out attack game plan in 2005 and we should not be seeing that again.

The team…
Up until now it has been our younger brigade holding our side together, but now they can hand back the reigns to the likes of Riewoldt, Hayes, Koschitzke, Montagna, Dal Santo and Ball. Our senior players have not been playing full matches so far, and will no doubt have far more responsibility as we make our play for an extra hundred grand and a nice piece of silverware to add to our other lonely trophies.

The backline is still missing key players in Hudghton, Goddard and Maguire, however Sam Fisher will return and take some heat off the young duo of Sam Gilbert and Raph Clarke. Jason Gram and Leigh Fisher are still yet to find their best form and have so far been outplayed by elevated rookie Jarryn Geary.

Our midfield is looking far more stable than in 2007. Leigh Montagna is now at least the equal of Nic Dal Santo, while Lenny Hayes will be looking to become the dominant clearance machine he was in 2006. Luke Ball’s future is still unclear – he seems to be moving more freely than last year, however he isn’t showing any signs of regaining his former blistering pace or long kicking. Xavier Clarke adds another dimension to our midfield when he is fit, but he needs to prove that his body will stand up to the rigors of being an AFL onballer. Steven Baker’s presence will be welcome, though he will not appear in the regular season for some time. David Armitage is putting pressure on Shane Birss for spot on the bench and their performance could decide whether they play in round one. Aaron Fiora will need to redeem himself after a disappointing few weeks.

Steven King and Michael Gardiner should share the rucking duties and will have an interesting battle against Adelaide’s young rucks. King has played two impressive games and Gardiner is just remembering what playing footy is like. The likes of Maric, Griffin and Tippet certainly have more spring in them, but may struggle against the stronger Saints duo.

Nick Riewoldt will be looking to resume his regular spot in the forward line, Justin Koschitzke may well return in his full-forward role and the new recruits Charlie Gardiner and Adam Schneider will be looking to seal their spot in concrete for round one. Stephen Milne has been serviceable but will want to make sure he doesn’t drop away and lose his spot. Clint Jones has showed good improvement on last year, however his poor disposal and decision-making has still proved costly. Jones’ has impressed many with his good defensive pressure in the forward line. Jack Steven was the man who kicked the winning goal against Geelong, though the 17 year old may not play in the final. Jarryd Allen has showed some good signs in the forward line and could pop up for a couple of goals if he plays.

The kids…Jarryn Geary – A late pick in the 2006 rookie draft who looked like an AFL player half way through his first season. He can kick, run, tackle, spoil and he gets plenty of the ball. An all-round package who just needs another good game to cement his spot for round one.

David Armitage – He was worrying some Saints fans last year after he failed to live up to his hype of being a ready made midfielder, however it seems that he simply needed another AFL pre season to get his fitness up. He has excellent footy instincts, good skills, plenty of mongrel and has been a regular goalkicker in the NAB Cup. It seems that he has moved ahead of Shane Birss and if he performs well again on Saturday he will get his senior opportunity against the Swans.

Robert Eddy – Taken in the same rookie draft as Geary, Eddy has amazed everyone at St Kilda with his freakish fitness and he has played some impressive games in the NAB Cup. He is a natural ball-winner and is improving his disposal. He is probably the first rookie in line to be elevated and would be stiff to miss out on a spot in the final.

Jarryd Allen – A surprise slider in the 2006 draft, the man taken at pick 59 spent almost all of 2007 out injured, but has made an impressive return to footy. He has been a regular goalkicker thus far and has great footy smarts, a good pair of hands and neat skills. He may not be the quickest or noticeable player, but he has really stood up with several of our key forwards injured. If Koschitzke plays then Allen may miss out on a spot, however he would be very unlucky.

Jack Steven – Taken in the third round of the 2007 draft as a very bottom-age player, Steven has surprised many with his good attack on the footy and his match-winning goal in the dying minutes in the quarter final against Geelong. He may lose his spot with Schneider returning from injury, however he has had a very positive pre season campaign.

Watch out for…
Xavier Clarke – Finally seems to have a decent fitness base and looks capable of tearing it up in the midfield this year. His awesome skills and ability to get out of trouble could add a lot to our midfield if he can get some consistency going.

Steven King – Is getting better each game and looks to be in great condition. He does struggle to get off the ground, however his bodywork is excellent and his skills are sharp. With 17 possessions last week he obviously still knows how to get the footy.

Adam Schneider – Had a good debut for the Saints last week, and he’ll want to keep that form up to prove that he is a best 22 player. With Riewoldt and Koschitzke to crumb off he could snare a few sneaky goals.

Charlie Gardiner – Hasn’t put a foot wrong so far, but needs to confirm that he can work in unison with Riewoldt. To date he has been the main target at half forward and will need to prove that he can be effective as a second option.

Justin Koschitzke – His form so far has been amazing. If he can manage to stay on the ground without tweaking anything for a whole match he could end up with 10 goals (even against quality opposition in Rutten).

Luke Ball – From one of the premier young midfielders in the competition in 2005 to a slow, struggling backup midfielder in 2007, it will be very interesting to see how he performs in 2008. He still has the talent, but will his body allow him to use it?

Clinton Jones - He's got the tank, he's got the speed, and he’s got the dedication...but is that enough to compensate for his poor skills? This will be the make or break season for Jones. His harassing and tackling have been excellent, however he his kicking efficiency last year was by far the worst in the competition at just above 50%. If he starts hitting targets he could be a star.

Match-ups…
While I honestly have not seen much of Adelaide (so I’m really just guessing), Sam Fisher or Sam Gilbert will take Ken McGregor in defence (the other taking Sellar), Raph Clarke may find himself lining up on Brett Burton and the likes of Geary, L.Fisher and Gram are likely to take any Adelaide midfielders resting forward. Steven Baker surely would be destined for the ever-dangerous Andrew McLeod.

Prediction…St Kilda has looked very solid in all areas so far with depleted teams and will only get stronger with the big names returning. Adelaide’s ball movement has been very impressive so far, however Ross Lyon’s game plan is all about stopping the opposition from moving the ball quickly, so both in terms of personnel and tactics I think St Kilda just have the edge. The match will be played at Adelaide’s home ground, though the Saints have put in some very good performances there in recent years.

Saints by 14 points.

 

[HoldenMCaulfield]

Nice summary !

It will be interesting to see the Adelaide side of things - I haven't followed them too much (it is only the NAB Cup after all) yet, but they appear to be in good form.

 

[NikkiNoo]

Now the Adelaide perspective

Déjà vu

Crows fans will have fond memories of playing St. Kilda in a premiership, and so they should, the clubs first premiership came 11 years ago against the Saints. The lights aren’t quite on so bright this Saturday night, its ‘only’ the NAB cup, but that shouldn’t take away from what has in all seriousness been the most pleasing Crows pre-season in history, the 2003 Wizard Cup win included. Whilst that win was driven by a lot of already senior players (Andrew McLeod won the Tuck medal as best afield in the Grand Final, a game in which Wayne Carey made his Crows debut), this year its been youth, youth, youth.

There were a lot of buzzwords thrown around at the start of the season regarding what the Crows fans could expect… Is it a rebuild? A regeneration perhaps? There was one word starting with ‘re’ Crows fans couldn’t avoid. Retirement. Much has been made of the fact that the Crows have lost their greatest ever player, and inspirational Leader in Mark Ricciuto. Crows fans have been told that they will suffer the inevitable void that the Roo leaves in our list. Well, so far so good. Thus far in the NAB Cup Neil Craig has been true to his word, and hes backed in the youngsters in a variety of different positions, and for the most part the signs are good.

This week again presents Craig with the opportunity to give these younger players game time against a quality opposition. Whilst the NAB cup is a notoriously bad prediction tool for the regular season, it should be noted that the Crows wins have been for the most part against hard at it opposition, with the exception of the disappointing Collingwood. Many believed Fremantle would go all out in the NAB cup, in an attempt to find something they can put in their currently desolate trophy cabinet, and Hawthorn have one of the best lists in the AFL in terms of the quality of their players. Any team with Luke Hodge and Buddy Franklin playing well is dangerous, yet despite this the Crows have been able to come away with the win. This week the quality of opposition is maintained, as we go head to head with a team which has rocketed into second place in the flag favoritism betting, behind all conquering Geelong. As a club, we could not have asked for a better preparation for the season proper, and we couldn’t have asked for a better showing of where we’re really at.


The Midfield- aka ‘Will the Real Slim Shady please stand up?’

He’s young… he’s pretty… he’s blonde… He’s playing good football at the moment. This description could be used for one of a number of midfielders the Crows currently boast. Whether its van Berlo, Bernie Vince, Brent Reilly, or even newcomer David McKay these players have made it their mission to confuse fans and commentators alike. Just watch the Hawthorn game, as late in the last quarter the commentator declares ‘That fumble from van Berlo was all he needed’, as Franklin roves the mistake and scores the goal. Now, most Crows would be upset at this, but I think Bernie Vince might have managed a smile, as it was in actuality his fumble, a mistake in the commentary box that went uncorrected. In all seriousness, this is a mistake us Crows fans may as well get used to, this fleet of blonde bombers is crucial to our chances for the next 5+ seasons.

The ‘young midfield’ has been hyped beyond belief in the news paper, but for good reason as with a little help from the more experienced Scotty Thompson who’s been in burning form, they’ve won us games without the experience and class of the Goodwins, the McLeods and the Edwards (sorry, Gary Ayres moment). Its worth noting the way in which Craig has worked the midfield in this preseason competition, its been rare to see the same player given the same responsibility twice in a row. For example, Nathan van Berlo the omnipotent captain in waiting was the leading disposal getter last week against Hawthorn with 28, yet the week before he was given limited game time against Fremantle, only playing two thirds of the game. Chris Knights was one who was given limited game time against the Hawks, playing only 49% (if the Sunday Mail is believable, and we all know it isnt) of the game, and id expect him to play most of the final now.

Players to watch-

Nathan van Berlo- Ok, this is a given. After finally being unleashed properly last week, I expect van Berlo to build some momentum heading towards the season proper. As the youngest player in the Crow’s leadership group, and the only leadership group member currently playing in the midfield, van Berlo carries a lot of responsibility to act as an ‘on field general’, and wont disappoint. There are some class players in the Saints midfield, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see van Berlo running alongside a Dal Santo, a Hayes or a Ball for a lot of the game.

Bernie Vince- Was super impressive in the win over Collingwood in Dubai, but has come back to earth in the last two weeks, so much so that what was being considered as a certain starter for round one now needs to impress in order to keep his name ahead of some of the other young guns. A crunch game.

David McKay- Has played a handful of games now, and has been super impressive in the limited game time hes seen. What I love about this guy is his composure under pressure. There was a moment in the last quarter last week when there was a lot of heat in the game, and McKay was in the defensive 50, where the ball spilled to him. Rather than panic and rapidfire a handpass to an out of position player, as many youngsters would do, David settles, and pinpoints a target by leg. If he can continue his impressive form, he might be a smoky for round one, and almost certainly will see some AFL time this year.


The Defense

To flood or not to flood?, that is the question. Actually the question being argued around the Adelaide boards is ‘did we flood’, or even ‘what is a flood’. Without getting into those debates, ill simply say this – that these are the only issues for us Adelaidians to be debating regarding our defense probably tells you exactly how well things are going back there.

For a long time Adelaide’s backline has been its strength, and nothing looks like changing this year. Ben Rutten in his continual role as the Rock of Gibraltar is as big an obstacle as ever at full back, still driving forwards to suicidal thoughts. Meanwhile, Nathan Bock has returned to his natural position at center half back, after last years journey to the forward line, and has reminded us all of why most Crows fans fancy him as an All Australian if left at CHB the entire season. In the three games so far Bock has been nothing short of dominant, last week was no different, in the first half, whilst he was on Buddy Franklin, Bock chalked up 20 odd disposals, whilst you could count Franklins touches on one hand… without using most of your fingers.

Nathan Bassett returned last week from injury, and will be the better for the run, and Graham Johncock is his usual run creating self. Defense is missing Andy McLeod, the mercurial one doing his thang up forward, but has had the benefits of some other senior players spending time there, last week it was Simon Goodwin, and Tyson Edwards joining the infamous zone.

Players to Watch-


Nathan Bock- A marquee match up with Reiwoldt this week. Saint Nick is not fully fit, having only played his first game of the year last week, staving off the rumors of a serious knee injury. Reiwoldt is always dangerous, but will be limited in the time hes given, and if he isnt moving as well as hed like, Bock might be able to exploit it for some counter attacking opportunities.

Bryce Campbell- Ive named him here, even though he could be considered a midfielder, as hes played most of his football in the NAB cup thus far here. Campbell might end up with a role against someone like Schneider who was impressive last week in his Saints debut. This is a must impress game for Campbell, who has shown signs of improvement this preseason, but still has issues revolving around his disposal. It’s a make or break year for Bryce, in the second year of his contract as a mature aged recruit, he cant afford to coast, needs to stand out here.


The Forward Line

Ahh, another season, another hope that we’ve found the solution to our forward line woes. This season though, our optimism might not be misplaced. We’ve got the new twin towers, Tippett and Sellar both showing some signs that they will be good key forwards in the future for us. Tippett will have to fly the flag for the new generation alone this week however, with Sellar giving way in selection. At the same time some old faces like Andrew McLeod are providing some magic for us, a spark that was often missing near goals in recent times. A forward line is judged by the scores the team can kick, and over this competition the Crows have been the highest scoring team by far. Much of that has to do with midfielders who can drop forward to kick goals, and that will be an important part of our forward plans most of the year.

Being realistic, Tippett isnt going to be a match winner this year, but he does provide a contest, and demonstrates an ability to both split packs, and read the play which defies his inexperience. Brett Burton provided the x-factor last week, and will be important to our chances this week if in form. I don’t feel there are too many in the St. Kilda line up that can match him in terms of both his aerobic capacity, and his aerial ability.

Players to watch-

Ken McGregor- Often forgotten, McGregor is the best contested mark in the team, and one of the best set shots inside 40, despite struggling for distance on anything longer. He has form against St Kilda in finals, his five in the 2005 qualifying final memorable, and will be a key to goal this week.

Jason Porplyzia- The match winner last week, Porplyzia plays above his size. Despite being a shorter player, is one of the strongest contested marks in Adelaide. Fast becoming one of the most important players at the Crows, this guy could become a real star of the competition, whether its in the midfield, or floating across the half back line.

Andrew McLeod- If you don’t know why you should be watching Andrew McLeod, I want you off Bigfooty. Now!

The Ruck

This is by far the least certain position for the Adelaide Crows, with Ivan Maric and Jonathon Griffin splitting time throughout the preseason, along with Brad Moran and Kurt Tippett. Im not going to bother pinpointing individual players, as everyone should be watched closely. The starting ruck position is more than likely still on the line, and id expect to see anyone who’s playing the position to be fighting tooth and nail as a result. In terms of AFL experience St. Kilda has the edge, but the Crows rucks can counter this with a superior athleticism. How we fare here will go along way towards determining the outcome.


Wrap it up…

Its hard to make any sort of meaningful prediction based upon preseason form, as we’ve been made aware lately teams would far rather win the four points from round one than the NAB Cup, and that plays into my thinking at the moment. Whilst St. Kilda are playing a number of key players who have been nursed back to health lately (Ball and Reiwoldt for example), the Crows have the luxary of a near full list for the first time in years. This in itself might be the difference, as the Saints have to manage their players carefully for round one, compared to a Crows unit which can afford to go hard in this one. It seems to me that the players most likely to put in a red hot dip in these preseason cup games are the younger players desperate to establish themselves. For the Crows, these players can be found all around the ground, with round one positions on the line. Based on this, I can see the Crows getting up in a close, hard game, the ideal preparation for the season proper.

Crows by 12 points.

 

[The Jeff]

Interesting summaries. Just as a side note - Max will play according to RL at the AGM. This is good news if true.

Southerntakeover has selected the Crows by 12.
Mad-Saint-Guy has chosen the Saints by 14.

Therefore; on balance, I believe the Saints will win by 2.

 

[Rough_Edges]

Haven't got to read the Adelaide one, but stuff job MSG, good stuff.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Interesting summaries. Just as a side note - Max will play according to RL at the AGM. This is good news if true.

Southerntakeover has selected the Crows by 12.
Mad-Saint-Guy has chosen the Saints by 14.

Therefore; on balance, I believe the Saints will win by 2.

Haha.

I did like that we chose very similiar margins. Apparently we think alike in terms of what the game will be like.