Preview Horse Racing - Spring Carnival 2016

[Temploar]

She's a very nice horse, Temploar. And I was one of the ones who had something on her

Keep an eye out for her in two weeks time over a mile!

Bugger, mate! I had a sneaky $10 on Magellan thats why I had to mention it when he won.

Don't worry, she's in my blackbook. I swear mate she gets out a fraction earlier she wins. Stiff luck.

 

[Temploar]

Another one that I would like to mention is SPIETH who I had a couple bucks on in Sydney on Saturday.

4 year old who has had 8 Starts for 5 wins and 1 place, Is at the start of it's current prep and is looking in good form. https://www.punters.com.au/horses/Spieth_400201/
Missed the kick by about 2 lengths and didn't have no luck until the straight but then just rocketed up for a dominant victory.

Beat the likes of Kaepernick, Kinglike, Boss Lane, Decision Time. They're not easybeats. Also has had success in Melbourne earlier this year.

Big watch to do something big next year, I called it here first.

 

[Maggie5]

Geezus, you'd be one of those blokes in the TAB that cheers every 'looming' winner at the 100m mark.

Not going to waste my expertise on those pub punters who think they already know it all, enjoy.

Not sure what the issue is. Thought there might be some interest in how the market percentage is calculated, rather than just saying "that's the bookmaker's margin, more is bad".

Sorry for responding to a question not addressed to me directly; I have not found that to be a violation of etiquette elsewhere in my tenure on BigFooty.

Hey guys, I really appreciated both your replies.
In fact I am going to take a pic of the tv screen and see if the price of my horse that I choose is better to bet on via fixed price or take my chance on the TAB.
I never have a bet if the horse is paying $3.50 or less as I don't mind getting my money back playing each way.

 

[Temploar]

Hey guys, I really appreciated both your replies.
In fact I am going to take a pic of the tv screen and see if the price of my horse that I choose is better to bet on via fixed price or take my chance on the TAB.
I never have a bet if the horse is paying $3.50 or less as I don't mind getting my money back playing each way.

The only thing I hate about TAB odds is that they always fluctuate from what you see on the TV screen.
There's been many times where I've backed horses because they've been at like $8 on S-TAB just before the gates and I'm thinking yeah bloody oath, it's a way better horse than those odds!
Then just as they're about to jump the odds roll into something ridiculous like $4-5. And then at the end of the race the odds have changed again!

It's a joke and all it does is draw people into thinking they're getting better odds. Keep your odds constantly updated or don't display them on the darn TV!

That's why I prefer fixed odds, for peace of mind. Sometimes I do get shafted for example I back a roughie at $21 fixed and it goes way out to $34 on the tote before the race and then wins, but that is very rarely the case.

Small win bet, fixed odds. Or if it's a roughie I'll go each way fixed. I don't usually mess around with the exotics like trifecta/firstfour etc. Keeping it simple has yielded me good results.

Except there was a weird time where I dreamt I had a quinella 6-2 and I thought it was a bloody weird dream because I rarely have a quinella so as soon as I remembered I had the dream (later that day) - I checked the form guide and backed the 6-2 boxed quinella in the next race in Melbourne, surprisingly it won and I picked up something like $720 for a $20 quinella because they weren't favourites. I go to sleep every night hoping for another dream like that but nowadays whenever I dream of numbers they give me no luck. Just a coincidence/freak event and I got paid from it! haha.

 

[Leviathan Pie]

Another one that I would like to mention is SPIETH who I had a couple bucks on in Sydney on Saturday.

4 year old who has had 8 Starts for 5 wins and 1 place, Is at the start of it's current prep and is looking in good form. https://www.punters.com.au/horses/Spieth_400201/
Missed the kick by about 2 lengths and didn't have no luck until the straight but then just rocketed up for a dominant victory.

Beat the likes of Kaepernick, Kinglike, Boss Lane, Decision Time. They're not easybeats. Also has had success in Melbourne earlier this year.

Big watch to do something big next year, I called it here first.

The way he bombed it early, hunted up, and yet still had the audacity to run a sizzling final furlong split - he's a genuine top-liner!

 

[Temploar]

The way he bombed it early, hunted up, and yet still had the audacity to run a sizzling final furlong split - he's a genuine top-liner!

Haha, was shitting myself when he bombed the start and got no clear run.

I'm thinking Aaahhh Damn it Spieth what happened to 1111 in your form? Screw the experts! * my form analysis! Screw everyone that threw their life savings on it before the jump!

And then it just went Woosh!

Can't keep it in races like that, Bet you'll see it in a few G1's next year.

 

[Leviathan Pie]

The only thing I hate about TAB odds is that they always fluctuate from what you see on the TV screen.
There's been many times where I've backed horses because they've been at like $8 on S-TAB just before the gates and I'm thinking yeah bloody oath, it's a way better horse than those odds!
Then just as they're about to jump the odds roll into something ridiculous like $4-5. And then at the end of the race the odds have changed again!

It's a joke and all it does is draw people into thinking they're getting better odds. Keep your odds constantly updated or don't display them on the darn TV!

That's why I prefer fixed odds, for peace of mind. Sometimes I do get shafted for example I back a roughie at $21 fixed and it goes way out to $34 on the tote before the race and then wins, but that is very rarely the case.

Small win bet, fixed odds. Or if it's a roughie I'll go each way fixed. I don't usually mess around with the exotics like trifecta/firstfour etc. Keeping it simple has yielded me good results.

Except there was a weird time where I dreamt I had a quinella 6-2 and I thought it was a bloody weird dream because I rarely have a quinella so as soon as I remembered I had the dream (later that day) - I checked the form guide and backed the 6-2 boxed quinella in the next race in Melbourne, surprisingly it won and I picked up something like $720 for a $20 quinella because they weren't favourites. I go to sleep every night hoping for another dream like that but nowadays whenever I dream of numbers they give me no luck. Just a coincidence/freak event and I got paid from it! haha.

The totes are fickle, and becoming obsolete. The move towards fixed-odds betting is enormous, if you can get on with any of the corporates - which shouldn't be a problem if you're just a weekend punter - then 'best tote' is often the product that would gain you most traction.

 

[Leviathan Pie]

Haha, was shitting myself when he bombed the start and got no clear run.

I'm thinking Aaahhh Damn it Spieth what happened to 1111 in your form? Screw the experts! **** my form analysis! Screw everyone that threw their life savings on it before the jump!

And then it just went Woosh!

Can't keep it in races like that, Bet you'll see it in a few G1's next year.

No doubt, he's a G1 class/competitive colt in the making. It all happened for him a bit soon as a 3yo, but he's matured significantly.

 

[Temploar]

The totes are fickle, and becoming obsolete. The move towards fixed-odds betting is enormous, if you can get on with any of the corporates - which shouldn't be a problem if you're just a weekend punter - then 'best tote' is often the product that would gain you most traction.

Best Tote is a good feature. I've used it a couple times. Ladbrokes Top Tote + 20% on certain races is also a nice little deal but it's a $50-$100 max depending on the race.

Do people still actually go to the TAB to bet frequently? I've walked in a couple times on weekends to drop off my grandparents bets because they can't use/don't know how to use/don't trust the use of internet bookmakers. (combo of all 3) - And the TAB has always looked dead apart from a couple of the old faithful still hanging around with their beers and that one bloke in the corner who just never figured out how to use a smartphone.

Don't think the ol' TAB as a place of betting will be a thing in 10 years time. Everyone will just bet online. The much loved TAB's will go the way of the Video store.

 

[Leviathan Pie]

Best Tote is a good feature. I've used it a couple times. Ladbrokes Top Tote + 20% on certain races is also a nice little deal but it's a $50-$100 max depending on the race.

Do people still actually go to the TAB to bet frequently? I've walked in a couple times on weekends to drop off my grandparents bets because they can't use/don't know how to use/don't trust the use of internet bookmakers. (combo of all 3) - And the TAB has always looked dead apart from a couple of the old faithful still hanging around with their beers and that one bloke in the corner who just never figured out how to use a smartphone.

Don't think the ol' TAB as a place of betting will be a thing in 10 years time. Everyone will just bet online. The much loved TAB's will go the way of the Video store.

You've answered the future of walk-in TAB's with the bolded.

You don't need to leave your living room, at all. The ease and convenience of the online product just carries too much appeal.

 

[Temploar]

You've answered the future of walk-in TAB's with the bolded.

You don't need to leave your living room, at all. The ease and convenience of the online product just carries too much appeal.

True that, I think once the last generation has thinned out then it's all systems go for Online Betting to completely take over the field.
If you can efficiently use the internet and a mobile phone, there is no need to walk into a TAB at all.

Very convenient, also very scary at the same time.

 

[Maggie5]

True that, I think once the last generation has thinned out then it's all systems go for Online Betting to completely take over the field.
If you can efficiently use the internet and a mobile phone, there is no need to walk into a TAB at all.

Very convenient, also very scary at the same time.

I can't remember the last time I placed a bet in a TAB, only go in to deposit or cash out and that is usually at a hotel.
Always bet via net and before that phone.

 

[Temploar]

I can't remember the last time I placed a bet in a TAB, only go in to deposit or cash out and that is usually at a hotel.
Always bet via net and before that phone.

The TAB isn't a very nice place to be anyway. Always used to smell of secondhand smoke and drunks and now that they banned smoking in indoor places there's nothing to cover up the smell of drunks!

 

[Maggie5]

The TAB isn't a very nice place to be anyway. Always used to smell of secondhand smoke and drunks and now that they banned smoking in indoor places there's nothing to cover up the smell of drunks!

Why aren't you asleep?
A migraine woke me up and I am waiting for the pills to work.

 

[Temploar]

Why aren't you asleep?
A migraine woke me up and I am waiting for the pills to work.

I stayed up until 6am yesterday morning waiting for Manchester United to play. (Freakin' ridiculous time) - but I knew if I slept then I'd not wake up for the match.

I need to satisfy my weekly quotas of sport viewing, otherwise I feel like something isn't right in the world.
With no AFL, no Cricket as of yet and the English Soccer on at ridiculous times, I only have one option and that's the soccer.

So I watched the match, it was absolutely BORING, we parked the bus and settled for a 0-0 draw. There was nothing exciting about it at all.

Then it was like 9am and I couldn't hold my eyes open anymore especially after the draw, so I slept, missed out on everything I had to do yesterday, and was practically oblivious to the world until I woke up at 6pm!!!.

And now the cycle continues because I've killed my sleep rhythm... Thanks Soccer.

Hopefully you can get to sleep soon. I'm as energetic as a fox.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Any reason for the unusually small fields in our big races This year?

Last years Cox plate had like 15 runners, and the Caulfield cup had a fair few more than what was sent out last week.

Has something changed? Or is the talent pool of horses just not there this year?

Cox plate:
14 runners last year v 10 this year in the cox plate.
The Cox plate varies in numbers of runners, usually attracting the top weight for age horses so some years there is a bit of a dearth hence less runners or some horses opt for easier races eg McKinnon stakes in the VRC carnival following.

Caulfield Cup:
17 runners this year, capacity field is 18 these days (been like that for decades) but this year there were only 2 emergencies. (Usually 4 of those) so last acceptances was light this year. So we had 3 scratchings from Tuesday final acceptances so only 17 ran.
I'd say just a fluke this year re numbers being down.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Another one that I would like to mention is SPIETH who I had a couple bucks on in Sydney on Saturday.

4 year old who has had 8 Starts for 5 wins and 1 place, Is at the start of it's current prep and is looking in good form. https://www.punters.com.au/horses/Spieth_400201/
Missed the kick by about 2 lengths and didn't have no luck until the straight but then just rocketed up for a dominant victory.

Beat the likes of Kaepernick, Kinglike, Boss Lane, Decision Time. They're not easybeats. Also has had success in Melbourne earlier this year.

Big watch to do something big next year, I called it here first.

Spieth is a nice horse. Part owner and racing in Michael okeefes colours, he also owned Moatize who won the Hotham Hcp and ran 6 th in the 2008 Melbourne Cup with Claire Lindop riding.
Stablemate VIEWED won

 

[Temploar]

Cox plate:
14 runners last year v 10 this year in the cox plate.
The Cox plate varies in numbers of runners, usually attracting the top weight for age horses so some years there is a bit of a dearth hence less runners or some horses opt for easier races eg McKinnon stakes in the VRC carnival following.

Caulfield Cup:
17 runners this year, capacity field is 18 these days (been like that for decades) but this year there were only 2 emergencies. (Usually 4 of those) so last acceptances was light this year. So we had 3 scratchings from Tuesday final acceptances so only 17 ran.
I'd say just a fluke this year re numbers being down.

Geez man it just feels like things are a bit toned down this year when it comes to the amount of runners we have.

Last year I had huge fun sorting out form guides for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, and Melbourne cup.

Horse after horse I felt everyone had a genuine reason for being there and I spent a ton of time analysing each runner. This has claims, this has claims, this horse has claims too! I enjoyed it.

Now this year it's like meh.
Caul cup: Jameka or Scottish or Real Love(who got a shocking ride).... No point analysing anyone else.

Cox plate: Winx or Hartnell.. Know they'll win so don't care about 3rd place.

Melb Cup will probably be more of the same.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Geez man it just feels like things are a bit toned down this year when it comes to the amount of runners we have.

Last year I had huge fun sorting out form guides for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, and Melbourne cup.

Horse after horse I felt everyone had a genuine reason for being there and I spent a ton of time analysing each runner. This has claims, this has claims, this horse has claims too! I enjoyed it.

Now this year it's like meh.
Caul cup: Jameka or Scottish or Real Love(who got a shocking ride).... No point analysing anyone else.

Cox plate: Winx or Hartnell.. Know they'll win so don't care about 3rd place.

Melb Cup will probably be more of the same.

If it only it was like that always, we'd grow our pockets.
Somehow there will be twists and turns.

I really,Ike HARTNELL for the Melbourne cup

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I think Winx has scared a few off. Certainly in the Caulfield Stakes. A couple of years ago they were letting maidens in to the best race in Australia in Shamus Award, and of course he got up. So things have changed a little. At least as far as the Cox Plate goes this year, at least the quality is good.

 

[Temploar]

If it only it was like that always, we'd grow our pockets.
Somehow there will be twists and turns.

I really,Ike HARTNELL for the Melbourne cup

The only threats to them would be Yankee Rose with that sweet 47.5kg weight and Vadamos who I believe is an unknown quantity to most of us at this point.

Still I can't see them going down.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Reckon they ride Yankee Rose upside down with her light weight and inside draw?

 

[Temploar]

Reckon they ride Yankee Rose upside down with her light weight and inside draw?

Gee I wouldn't bet against it. She'd hardly know herself with nothing on her back. Might be difficult to run down if she is ahead of them on the turn.

I do not think she can win if she comes right from the back, Winx has a better acceleration than her and Hartnell has a better turn of foot around the home bend. Being right up there at the front might be the best chance.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

The only threats to them would be Yankee Rose with that sweet 47.5kg weight and Vadamos who I believe is an unknown quantity to most of us at this point.

Still I can't see them going down.

And likely not

 

[Saintly Viewed]

QEWY just won Geelong Cup and qualifies for Melbourne Cup, likely gets some penalty so will move up ballot order. A Godolphin horse

GREY LION came second already qualified but still needs a boost before a start in the cup.
OCEANOGRAPHER came third and qualifies not for Cup, but down ballot order.