How does our youth stack up?

[M Malice]

is our youth up to the task over the next 2 to 5 years for us to be a flag threat , or have we/me over rated our talent compared to the other teams considered on the verge of contending?

players 21 and under- lions 27, st.kilda 19, demons 19, bulldogs 18, giants 16, suns 14.
players 22 and 23- lions 4, demons 7, st.kilda 9, suns 9, bulldogs 9, giants 15.

the best dozen of the 23 and unders IMO.
lions- j.green, s.mayes, m.paparone, l.taylor, t.cutler, d.mcstay, d.gardner, l.dawson, j.schache, h.andrews, b.keays, r.matheison. note: all but green are 21 or under.

demons- d.tyson, j.viney, j.hogan, c.salem, c.petracca, a.brayshaw, c.oliver, t.mcdonald, t.bugg, d.kent, j.kennedy-harris, s.weideman.

dogs- t.libratore, l.dahlhaus, j.johannsen, j.stringer, j.macrae, t.boyd, m.bontempelli, l.hunter, n.hovrat, m.wallis, m.adams, l.jong.

suns- d.prestia, t.lynch, a.saad, j.martin, j.kolodjanskij, t.miller, c.ahchee, s.day, d.swallow, j.omeara, p.wright, a.sexton.

giants- d.shiel, j.cameron, d.smith, j.patton, t.greene, j.kelly, r.lobb, a.tomlinson, s.coniglio, l.whitfield, j.hopper, j.steele.

saints- j.newnes, l.dunstan, j.billings, e.templeton, b.acres, p.mccartin, j.lonie, h.goddard, j.gresham, j.bruce, b.longer, j.sinclair.

looking at the age profile the stat that sticks out to me is that we have 27 players 21 and under and only 4 (green, paine, walker, lester) 22 or 23.

IMO we may be 4 or 5 years off contending for a flag rather than 2 or 3 and by then the majority of our current mids will be 30+.

is our list in good shape?

i think yes providing a fair portion of the next lot of mids really step up eg. keays, matheison, evans, robertson, cutler, taylor, mayes and allison, rolls + petrevski-seton would be nice in 2016 draft.

 

[bato]

is our list in good shape?

Yes.

Dogs' under 23 list is ridiculously good. Bit jealous.

 

[jjami15]

IMO we may be 4 or 5 years off contending for a flag rather than 2 or 3 and by then the majority of our current mids will be 30+.

is our list in good shape?

No, our list isn't in good shape IMO. There is a total imbalance in our age profile. Hardly anyone over 27+, our mids are around 24/27 and our KPP are 21 and under. This isn't the club's fault as it has been caused by two things; the compromised drafts and the 'go home five and Aish' upping and leaving. The development of our KPP being the most imperative thing that we face. Schache will need another 1/2 other KPP's to also be a focal point and I don't believe that Close or Freeman will be those and Hipwood will be 2/3 yrs away before we see if he can make the grade. My fear is that we will be a team in five years that is a middle tier team only.

 

[Dylan12]

Makes for scary reading @jasonpm given our talent is largely inferior to those sides you have compared us against.

Highly unlikely to be pushing for a flag any time soon unless we acquire some commensurate top tier free agents in that mid 20's age group as our youngsters become 80-100 game players.

 

[M Malice]

No, our list isn't in good shape IMO. There is a total imbalance in our age profile. Hardly anyone over 27+, our mids are around 24/27 and our KPP are 21 and under. This isn't the club's fault as it has been caused by two things; the compromised drafts and the 'go home five and Aish' upping and leaving. The development of our KPP being the most imperative thing that we face. Schache will need another 1/2 other KPP's to also be a focal point and I don't believe that Close or Freeman will be those and Hipwood will be 2/3 yrs away before we see if he can make the grade. My fear is that we will be a team in five years that is a middle tier team only.

what do you think our strategy should be over the next few years re drafting, free agency and trading for mids and key position stocks?
should we be sticking to the draft or go down the free agency trading route?
IMO drafting for mids and a bit of mature talent for key position.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Our young talent (which makes up most our team) is so far behind other rebuilding teams or teams coming out of a rebuild it isn't funny. We seriously need to lift in recruitment & Drafting. I honestly cant see us even coming close to competing for premierships with the current core squad within the next 5 years

 

[M Malice]

Makes for scary reading @jasonpm given our talent is largely inferior to those sides you have compared us against.

Highly unlikely to be pushing for a flag any time soon unless we acquire some commensurate top tier free agents in that mid 20's age group as our youngsters become 80-100 game players.

hooker, hurley?
maybe walker could have a breakout season, he is still only 23 so his best is probably a year or so away.
saw a stat on the main board a while ago re key position forwards that it is highly improbable that KPF taken low in the draft eg. close and freeman make it, does happen but it is a rarity.
i would like to see close given a run at it in the NEAFL as a key position back.

 

[M Malice]

Our young talent (which makes up most our team) is so far behind other rebuilding teams or teams coming out of a rebuild it isn't funny. We seriously need to lift in recruitment & Drafting. I honestly cant see us even coming close to competing for premierships with the current core squad within the next 5 years

ATM i agree but we have an extraordinary number of kids 21 and under compared to the others, so we have not seen anywhere near the best of well over half our list.
schache and andrews could/should be elite key position talent. really liking the look of taylor and mcstay as possible A grade talent. we need a few more of that current 21 and under talent to show some signs this year though.

 

[Bucking Beads]

The difference with our youth compared to the Suns, GWS and Bulldogs is they've got more top end talent. We have a lot of good youngsters but I am not sure they will be in the top 10 in their position. I think the Suns, Bulldogs and GWS have those. We really did bottom out at the wrong time. I am not saying our young blokes can't develop into the elite players we need but at this stage I am not confident that it will happen.

 

[POBT]

If we can get three good years out of the midfield when the likes of Schache are starting to play well then we'll be OK.

 

[Balony_pony16]

The difference with our youth compared to the Suns, GWS and Bulldogs is they've got more top end talent. We have a lot of good youngsters but I am not sure they will be in the top 10 in their position. I think the Suns, Bulldogs and GWS have those. We really did bottom out at the wrong time. I am not saying our young blokes can't develop into the elite players we need but at this stage I am not confident that it will happen.

true... Doggies did draft exceptionally well with picks 20+. I think their backline is drafted from the rookie draft (might be wrong). we cant really get down on ourselves too much in comparisons with GWS & Suns. But we should really look at what the dogs have done. My last Gabba game was a few years back late season when the Lions killed the Dogs. Both in rebuild mode back then and most people would have thought we would be ahead of the dogs in 2016. Poor player retention, drafting, recruiting has left us going no where really. I'm sure we will climb higher on the table as the years go on I just don't think it will be that high.

 

[Bucking Beads]

true... Doggies did draft exceptionally well with picks 20+. I think their backline is drafted from the rookie draft (might be wrong). we cant really get down on ourselves too much in comparisons with GWS & Suns. But we should really look at what the dogs have done. My last Gabba game was a few years back late season when the Lions killed the Dogs. Both in rebuild mode back then and most people would have thought we would be ahead of the dogs in 2016. Poor player retention, drafting, recruiting has left us going no where really. I'm sure we will climb higher on the table as the years go on I just don't think it will be that high.

It could get that high but I am not predicting it to be unless some of our younger kids really develop into rolls royces of the competition. I think our midfield is good but has been overrated. Our backline is probably the worst in the comp now Clarke has retired. Our forward line has a lot of promise but it will take time.

 

[jjami15]

what do you think our strategy should be over the next few years re drafting, free agency and trading for mids and key position stocks?
should we be sticking to the draft or go down the free agency trading route?
IMO drafting for mids and a bit of mature talent for key position.

It has to be a combination of all three IMO. Another top tier KPF would be great via the draft in the next 2/3. McStay absolutely confounds me at the moment and could be a great third tall IMO up forward but I also see Rance type qualities down back. I also understand he is only a third year player and have to keep my own expectations in check. For me a lot revolves around our current KPP as they take so long to develop and maybe I am old school but getting a good 'spine' is the basis of your building blocks and you go from there. For me at the moment we have 2 out of 5 these in Schache and Andrews and possibly McStay but I see him being a really good third type either back or forward. This draft is vital. Will wait to see if Ballandean is going to be true KPF or a Ruck or Ruckman/Forward. I do keep saying that the next 2/3 drafts are imperative to get right.

In relation to trades we are sort of hamstrung in the fact with academy player/points. The only way I see trades is players leaving (sadly) but if we can facilitate trades that arch our needs then I have no problems with it. Let's say Mayes does leave and we get a big KPD then that's a win.

A lot has to go right to make finals let alone getting the right 'cattle' but also the right coaching/development and this is a massive area that we fall down and not derail the thread but Leppa won't be here at the end of this contract and I hope that we have a large overhaul of our assistants as well.

Where the club has succeed is the welfare department with the return of Lamberts and and also with Swan and Matthews driving the ship in the background.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

The dogs got two of them under father/son (Libba and Wallis), paid $1m for Boyd (for whom the jury is still out) and got Bonts, McCrae and Stringer with top ten picks, not 20+ picks. We've done pretty well given the picks we've had and the departures we've endured. Mathieson, Skinner, Hipwood, Keays and William could all yet turn our to be A grade, and Taylor, Andrews, McStay and Schache almost certainly will be. I think there is a danger of under-rating our list because of our current output compared to other teams, especially the Dogs, but the tables can turn very quickly.

 

[lionshine]

Looking forward to getting another top 5 draft pick on our list this year. Our young talent is nice but we are still missing 1-2 "A grade prospects" imo.

 

[charles202]

I already see massive improvement in the first two games of the season too last year and a lot of that is being driven by players under 21.

I think we will see even bigger leaps in the second half of the season especially in the back six as players get more time together.

Through in A couple of top midfielder recruits in the next draft alone and we are starting to build some real depth to the list which should start to blossom in 2 to 3 years while our current midfielders are still at their peak.

Exciting times ahead!!!

 

[lions2010]

Yes.

Dogs' under 23 list is ridiculously good. Bit jealous.

Main difference is Lions have no decent experience players. Bulldogs have Boyd, Murphy and Morris who are very very good players and Suckling is a very solid experience recruit. We have no one, Merrett is finished and we lack major experience. Lions need to recruit more experience across the ground to build confidence and to develop and direct our players. It also hurts when we cant get Beams, Rocliff , Hanley and Rich firing. They always seem to be injured. I cant wait to see a fit and firing team, fingers crossed that will happen eventually.

 

[M Malice]

Main difference is Lions have no decent experience players. Bulldogs have Boyd, Murphy and Morris who are very very good players and Suckling is a very solid experience recruit. We have no one, Merrett is finished and we lack major experience. Lions need to recruit more experience across the ground to build confidence and to develop and direct our players. It also hurts when we cant get Beams, Rocliff , Hanley and Rich firing. They always seem to be injured. I cant wait to see a fit and firing team, fingers crossed that will happen eventually.

yep. the distribution of our experienced guys through back, mids and forward lines is out of whack.
full list-
18 years old- r.william, e.hipwood, j.schache, s.skinner.
19 years old- b.keays, r.matheison, h.andrews, b.evans, j.mcgrath.
20 years old- c.hanley, m.hammelmann, j.watts, l.dawson, j.clayton, h.beasley, d.gardner, j.mcguinness, a.smith, d.mcstay, n.robertson, j.jansen.
21 years old- t.cutler, l.taylor m.paparone, m.close, s.mayes, j.freeman.
22 years old- j.paine.
23 years old- j.walker, r.lester, j.green.
24 years old- c.beams, r.harwood, r.bastinac, t.bell, a.christensen.
25 years old- d.rich.
26 years old- t.rockliff, d.beams, r.bewick, m.robinson.
27 years old- d.zorko, p.hanley.
28 years old- t.west.
29 years old- s.martin.
31 years old- d.merrett.

zero experience in key position tall stocks except for the last 3 names, then you go down to j. walker who is 23 and played only 35 games. recruiting at least 1 mature aged KP forward and back IMO is of vital importance in the 2016 trade and free agency period.

ideally you would want them to be around the 24/25 years of age mark to fit in with the way the list is tracking.

 

[Len S]

yep. the distribution of our experienced guys through back, mids and forward lines is out of whack.
full list-
18 years old- r.william, e.hipwood, j.schache, s.skinner.
19 years old- b.keays, r.matheison, h.andrews, b.evans, j.mcgrath.

yep. the distribution of our experienced guys through back, mids and forward lines is out of whack.
full list-
18 years old- r.william, e.hipwood, j.schache, s.skinner.
19 years old- b.keays, r.matheison, h.andrews, b.evans, j.mcgrath.
20 years old- c.hanley, m.hammelmann, j.watts, l.dawson, j.clayton, h.beasley, d.gardner, j.mcguinness, a.smith, d.mcstay, n.robertson, j.jansen.
21 years old- t.cutler, l.taylor m.paparone, m.close, s.mayes, j.freeman.
22 years old- j.paine.
23 years old- j.walker, r.lester, j.green.
24 years old- c.beams, r.harwood, r.bastinac, t.bell, a.christensen.
25 years old- d.rich.
26 years old- t.rockliff, d.beams, r.bewick, m.robinson.
27 years old- d.zorko, p.hanley.
28 years old- t.west.
29 years old- s.martin.
31 years old- d.merrett.

zero experience in key position tall stocks except for the last 3 names, then you go down to j. walker who is 23 and played only 35 games. recruiting at least 1 mature aged KP forward and back IMO is of vital importance in the 2016 trade and free agency period.

ideally you would want them to be around the 24/25 years of age mark to fit in with the way the list is tracking.

Thanks for that
20 years old- c.hanley, m.hammelmann, j.watts, l.dawson, j.clayton, h.beasley, d.gardner, j.mcguinness, a.smith, d.mcstay, n.robertson, j.jansen.
21 years old- t.cutler, l.taylor m.paparone, m.close, s.mayes, j.freeman.
22 years old- j.paine.
23 years old- j.walker, r.lester, j.green.
24 years old- c.beams, r.harwood, r.bastinac, t.bell, a.christensen.
25 years old- d.rich.
26 years old- t.rockliff, d.beams, r.bewick, m.robinson.
27 years old- d.zorko, p.hanley.
28 years old- t.west.
29 years old- s.martin.
31 years old- d.merrett.

zero experience in key position tall stocks except for the last 3 names, then you go down to j. walker who is 23 and played only 35 games. recruiting at least 1 mature aged KP forward and back IMO is of vital importance in the 2016 trade and free agency period.

ideally you would want them to be around the 24/25 years of age mark to fit in with the way the list is tracking.

Thanks jpm....I think that with a fair injury count, a key backman,and another good ruckman, things will look much better sooner rather than later.The list is exciting, what worries me is the relatively poor coaching set up.No Rattens, Boltons or Beveridges that's certain, and its been like that for ages.Player development must be badly affected you'd think.

 

[M Malice]

Thanks jpm....I think that with a fair injury count, a key backman,and another good ruckman, things will look much better sooner rather than later.The list is exciting, what worries me is the relatively poor coaching set up.No Rattens, Boltons or Beveridges that's certain, and its been like that for ages.Player development must be badly affected you'd think.

agree, i have my doubts re leppa but am prepared to back the club in their decision to extend his contract. although i don't expect us to go much better than we did last year when you have a detailed look at our age/experience profile and its spread through the various areas of the field. if merrett, martin, walker go down due to injury we are in serious peril of finishing below essendon and carlton, whether the club could resist the inevitable pressure that would come to sack leppa would be interesting to say the least.
how did we get to the stage of being in such dire need for experienced key position talent? something went seriously wrong somewhere re long term planning in the list management and recruitment area.

 

[Gibbo_88]

agree, i have my doubts re leppa but am prepared to back the club in their decision to extend his contract. although i don't expect us to go much better than we did last year when you have a detailed look at our age/experience profile and its spread through the various areas of the field. if merrett, martin, walker go down due to injury we are in serious peril of finishing below essendon and carlton, whether the club could resist the inevitable pressure that would come to sack leppa would be interesting to say the least.
how did we get to the stage of being in such dire need for experienced key position talent? something went seriously wrong somewhere re long term planning in the list management and recruitment area.

We weren't prepared for what the club would be like when it inevitably became an unsuccessful team. Losing players to home sickness appears much more likely with the 18-24 age group and that along with less coaching staff and a lack of wins always meant we were going to struggle. A player like Clarke staying is one thing that would have helped us in experience and development of key position players.

 

[lioninthesand]

Just heard the Saints average age is 25.6 today, yukky.

 

[carnthemlions]

is our youth up to the task over the next 2 to 5 years for us to be a flag threat , or have we/me over rated our talent compared to the other teams considered on the verge of contending?

players 21 and under- lions 27, demons 19, bulldogs 18, giants 16, suns 14.
players 22 and 23- lions 4, demons 7, suns 9, bulldogs 9, giants 15.

the best dozen of the 23 and unders IMO.
lions- j.green, s.mayes, m.paparone, l.taylor, t.cutler, d.mcstay, d.gardner, l.dawson, j.schache, h.andrews, b.keays, r.matheison. note: all but green are 21 or under.

demons- d.tyson, j.viney, j.hogan, c.salem, c.petracca, a.brayshaw, c.oliver, t.mcdonald, t.bugg, d.kent, j.kennedy-harris, s.weideman.

dogs- t.libratore, l.dahlhaus, j.johannsen, j.stringer, j.macrae, t.boyd, m.bontempelli, l.hunter, n.hovrat, m.wallis, m.adams, l.jong.

suns- d.prestia, t.lynch, a.saad, j.martin, j.kolodjanskij, t.miller, c.ahchee, s.day, d.swallow, j.omeara, p.wright, a.sexton.

giants- d.shiel, j.cameron, d.smith, j.patton, t.greene, j.kelly, r.lobb, a.tomlinson, s.coniglio, l.whitfield, j.hopper, j.steele.

looking at the age profile the stat that sticks out to me is that we have 27 players 21 and under and only 4 (green, paine, walker, lester) 22 or 23.

IMO we may be 4 or 5 years off contending for a flag rather than 2 or 3 and by then the majority of our current mids will be 30+.

is our list in good shape?

i think yes providing a fair portion of the next lot of mids really step up eg. keays, matheison, evans, robertson, cutler, taylor, mayes and allison, rolls + petrevski-seton would be nice in 2016 draft.

Look at our list vs these 4 clubs. There's a huge difference in the number of top 5/top 10 picks. Sometimes there's only so much you can do unfortunately.

Just heard the Saints average age is 25.6 today, yukky.

So often these 'youth' debates are driven more by perception than reality. The Saints are 'young and exciting'- they actually rely heavily on their experienced players. The Bulldogs do have exciting youngsters- but where would they be without Morris, Murphy and Boyd? With the exception of Merrett, our most experienced players are in their mid 20s.

 

[lions2010]

Just heard the Saints average age is 25.6 today, yukky.

Saints still have alot of experience and a few 30+ years olds that they rely on. They have not bottomed out completely as yet. They have more pain to come before they can regularly make finals.

Lions are very different. We have no experience we rely on that is close to retirement, which is why the pain is being experienced at the moment. Lions should have picked up Ashbury and should have got a Suckling. This is the experience we need, and no injuries

 

[dlanod]

Our youth has potential but at this stage that's it. Will they develop? Are they naturally limited? It's really hard to say at this stage given our lack of breakout players over the last 10 years.

- Andrews looks like he's a huge win but we're yet to see him take a true defensive task. No real surprise given this is only his second year.
- Green is probably the best and most consistent in his particular role.
- Taylor is showing improvement from a very good base. He's the most likely to lead our next midfield.

That's about it in terms of locks in best 22.

- Paparone plays well within himself but is limited by his disposal.

And that's about where I'd call it when it comes to being best 22 against competition for spots.

- Cutler is currently a poor man's Paparone.
- Gardiner hasn't shown he can consistently win one on one in defence.
- McStay fades in and out of games and can show a lack of application.
- Mayes has stagnated.
- Dawson, Schache, Keays, Hipwood and Mathieson have barely played enough (or not at all) to comment on.

We're still playing catch up for years of underwhelming drafting and development. We seem to have picked out talented players who don't want to stay because they know they have the talent to get top jobs elsewhere or limited players who hang around because they don't get headhunted.