How does our youth stack up?

[POBT]

Patfull/Dale Morris/Ben Stratton

Interestingly, Morris and Patfull (and I think Stratton) have spent parts of their careers playing on genuine key forwards.

I'd argue that Steven May is one of the best performed tall defenders over the last 18 months and he is variously listed at 190-193cm.

If a player has muscle/athleticism and really good footy nous, then I think a few cms is not particularly important.

 

[winged1]

Gibson (Hawthorn) 189cm

 

[carnthemlions]

Interestingly, Morris and Patfull (and I think Stratton) have spent parts of their careers playing on genuine key forwards.

I'd argue that Steven May is one of the best performed tall defenders over the last 18 months and he is variously listed at 190-193cm.

If a player has muscle/athleticism and really good footy nous, then I think a few cms is not particularly important.

I certainly wouldn't write Gardiner off as a key defender. I just think he might be better used a versatile defender who takes the matchup he's best suited to (won't always be a tall). I think he's like those other three players in the sense that they're all excellent 1 on 1 defenders with above average speed and agility who don't quite have the size or the height to play on certain forwards. May isn't tall, but he's very solid physically and probably one of the stronger players in the comp at his sort of height. I guess we'll see how Gardiner's physical development goes- right now, I don't think he has the right frame to support that much muscle.

 

[Kevvo]

I listen sometimes to the AFL exchange podcast from AFL.com. Alex Rance has replaced Drew Petrie this year as the player on the panel.

Anyway, the other week someone put to him the question about how defenders will handle the new breed of 200cm forward. He made an interesting argument in response. He said that from his perspective, the higher the forwards hips: the easier it is to shift them off their line. Generalizing, I guess his point was that physical intelligence could neutralize raw height/size advantages.

Clearly if a 200cm forward gets a clean jump on someone like Gardiner, he'll be at a big disadvantage. But, as he fills out and learns more tricks, I think he'll be able to cover a pretty wide range. He does seem like an innately good stopper. Having Harris Andrews and potentially Hipwood in the defense should hopefully shield him from the extremely tall types too.

 

[GumbyRules]

We need to look at where and when our players were selected in the draft. We all know that the most talented players are selected at the pointy end.

 

[Ironmonger]

We need to look at where and when our players were selected in the draft. We all know that the most talented players are selected at the pointy end.

I think we've had a bit of plain old bad luck with our recent draft picks. We got Aish at #7 in a year when the top five were very strong and the next dozen or so picks after that were below par or had go-home issues. We got Mayes at #8, when Stringer, Macrae and Wines went in the three picks beforehand and again, a big drop off after that.

And of course prior to that were the compromised drafts.

Of course, we could've done better with what we had. We might have been guilty of taking the safest picks a few times. But even in hindsight it's not easy to see what else we could have done.

 

[lionsbest]

Matching points always come out of your next available pick(s) - so, yeah, if we need to match, say, pick 14 and have pick 17, we must use pick 17 in matching it. There is no option to use later picks whilst keeping 17 live.

Realistically, letting academy teams do that would be unbalanced in our favour, especially with the way the points are currently distributed.

Thank you

 

[lionsbest]

You have to use the pick(s) most immediately after the nomination. So if someone nominates pick 16 or higher, pick 17 is going to be used regardless of whether it is worth more points or not.

Thanks

 

[carnthemlions]

I think we've had a bit of plain old bad luck with our recent draft picks. We got Aish at #7 in a year when the top five were very strong and the next dozen or so picks after that were below par or had go-home issues. We got Mayes at #8, when Stringer, Macrae and Wines went in the three picks beforehand and again, a big drop off after that.

And of course prior to that were the compromised drafts.

Of course, we could've done better with what we had. We might have been guilty of taking the safest picks a few times. But even in hindsight it's not easy to see what else we could have done.

Looking at our recent recent first round draft picks, Polec and Longer are the only two who really stand out as clear mistakes.

 

[Gibbo_88]

Our youth has potential but at this stage that's it. Will they develop? Are they naturally limited? It's really hard to say at this stage given our lack of breakout players over the last 10 years.

- Andrews looks like he's a huge win but we're yet to see him take a true defensive task. No real surprise given this is only his second year.
- Green is probably the best and most consistent in his particular role.
- Taylor is showing improvement from a very good base. He's the most likely to lead our next midfield.

That's about it in terms of locks in best 22.

- Paparone plays well within himself but is limited by his disposal.

And that's about where I'd call it when it comes to being best 22 against competition for spots.

- Cutler is currently a poor man's Paparone.
- Gardiner hasn't shown he can consistently win one on one in defence.
- McStay fades in and out of games and can show a lack of application.
- Mayes has stagnated.
- Dawson, Schache, Keays, Hipwood and Mathieson have barely played enough (or not at all) to comment on.

We're still playing catch up for years of underwhelming drafting and development. We seem to have picked out talented players who don't want to stay because they know they have the talent to get top jobs elsewhere or limited players who hang around because they don't get headhunted.

We can only judge the players on their performances and I agree with all of your assessments of those players. What really is a shame for with the development of our youth is it is probably harder for them (blues and dee's wouldn't be far behind) than it is any other group of youth in the AFL at the moment. Quite a few of the one's who haven't established themselves in the 22 would either be getting games supported by much more experienced players or would spend much ore time in the reserves. As a result we're probably seeing some players play in their shell, a turnover by any of our defenders results in a shot on goal. Must be a strange thing for or players to be encouraged to take the game on but they are causing so many turnovers and in doing so resulting in humiliating losses.

We really need to get a winner or two out of the rookie list. Slightly better draft picks than the other teams just isn't working for us.

 

[M Malice]

Good thread Jason pm, really puts our list in prospective.

Adding the Saint to the OP might be a good idea too, as they fall into the same time frame with rebuilding. For a quick list Ross, Dunstan, Acre, Lonie, Billing, Newnes, Longer, Goddard, Bruce, McCartin, Gresham and Freeman (no doubt missed someone)

sorry it took so long leuy longer, have updated the OP to include the saints. the impressive form of the saints against the hawks made me think of your request, they are playing an attractive brand of footy.
they could be in for a bit of a fall though with fisher, dempster, montagna and reiwoldt all 32 or older and all still in their best few players.

 

[M Malice]

It's been over 3 years since I created this thread, the list of our youth in my OP makes for illuminating reading when it comes to how a list and expectations can change, this is my list of our best youth from April 2016-
______________________________________________
the best dozen of the 23 and unders IMO.
lions- j.green, s.mayes, m.paparone, l.taylor, t.cutler, d.mcstay, d.gardner, l.dawson, j.schache, h.andrews, b.keays, r.matheison. note: all but green are 21 or under.
__________________________________________

Also youth on our list at that time and still with us were Sam Skinner, Archie Smith and Eric Hipwood.

IMO we are in a lot better position now, here is our 22 and under side now-

Brandon Starcevich, Jack Payne, Mitchell Hinge.
Alex Witherden, Harris Andrews, Noah Answerth.

Connor Ballenden, Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage.
Rhys Mathieson, Zac Bailey, Ely Smith.

Cameron Rayner, Eric Hipwood, Cedric Cox.
Tom Berry, Sam Skinner, Toby Wooller.

Int- Connor McFadyen, Tom Joyce, Jacob Allison, Corey Lyons.

Also available- Tom Fullarton, James Madden.

History tells you that a significant portion of those 24 players will not make it as serviceable regular AFL players, as for the other side of the coin I think we can confidently say that Alex Witherden, Harris Andrews, Noah Answerth, Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage and Eric Hipwwod will be good to elite players. I'm also bullish on the potential of Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey, Rhys Mathieson and Cedric Cox. The rest have not had enough senior time to make an educated judgement at this time apart from Jacob Allison who probably wont make it.

 

[Dalions]

It's been over 3 years since I created this thread, the list of our youth in my OP makes for illuminating reading when it comes to how a list and expectations can change, this is my list of our best youth from April 2016-
______________________________________________
the best dozen of the 23 and unders IMO.
lions- j.green, s.mayes, m.paparone, l.taylor, t.cutler, d.mcstay, d.gardner, l.dawson, j.schache, h.andrews, b.keays, r.matheison. note: all but green are 21 or under.
__________________________________________

Also youth on our list at that time and still with us were Sam Skinner, Archie Smith and Eric Hipwood.

IMO we are in a lot better position now, here is our 22 and under side now-

Brandon Starcevich, Jack Payne, Mitchell Hinge.
Alex Witherden, Harris Andrews, Noah Answerth.

Connor Ballenden, Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage.
Rhys Mathieson, Zac Bailey, Ely Smith.

Cameron Rayner, Eric Hipwood, Cedric Cox.
Tom Berry, Sam Skinner, Toby Wooller.

Int- Connor McFadyen, Tom Joyce, Jacob Allison, Corey Lyons.

Also available- Tom Fullarton, James Madden.

History tells you that a significant portion of those 24 players will not make it as serviceable regular AFL players, as for the other side of the coin I think we can confidently say that Alex Witherden, Harris Andrews, Noah Answerth, Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage and Eric Hipwwod will be good to elite players. I'm also bullish on the potential of Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey, Rhys Mathieson and Cedric Cox. The rest have not had enough senior time to make an educated judgement at this time apart from Jacob Allison who probably wont make it.

We have come a long way.
The progression of the list is looking good.
And with the experience we have added in the last couple of years, Look out!
Would love to see Cox take the next step and rise up a level or 2, maybe if Bundy exits might be the perfect opportunity for him.
Probably most excited about Young Tom Berry, Joyce and Smith. Would be great to see them step up when required this year.
Joyce from what I have seen, has immense talent and could push for a small forward role as well.

 

[irel]

is our youth up to the task over the next 2 to 5 years for us to be a flag threat , or have we/me over rated our talent compared to the other teams considered on the verge of contending?

players 21 and under- lions 27, st.kilda 19, demons 19, bulldogs 18, giants 16, suns 14.
players 22 and 23- lions 4, demons 7, st.kilda 9, suns 9, bulldogs 9, giants 15.

the best dozen of the 23 and unders IMO.
lions- j.green, s.mayes, m.paparone, l.taylor, t.cutler, d.mcstay, d.gardner, l.dawson, j.schache, h.andrews, b.keays, r.matheison. note: all but green are 21 or under.

is our list in good shape?

i think yes providing a fair portion of the next lot of mids really step up eg. keays, matheison, evans, robertson, cutler, taylor, mayes and allison, rolls + petrevski-seton would be nice in 2016 draft.

Well, this is not a pretty picture at all.
Please don't start a How Does Our 2020 List Stack Up? I fear coming back in three years time and find Rayner and co have all gone to the dogs.

 

[M Malice]

Well, this is not a pretty picture at all.
Please don't start a How Does Our 2020 List Stack Up? I fear coming back in three years time and find Rayner and co have all gone to the dogs.

Too late irel.

 

[Dalions]

Well, this is not a pretty picture at all.
Please don't start a How Does Our 2020 List Stack Up? I fear coming back in three years time and find Rayner and co have all gone to the dogs.

The Doggies might be pretty good then!

 

[lionshine]

In 2016 guys like Cedric Cox, Brandon Starcevich, Jack Payne and Ely Smith would've been playing just about every game. Now they are all doing their time in the NEAFL trying to force their way in. Our list is in a much better spot then it was back then

 

[briztoon]

It's been over 3 years since I created this thread, the list of our youth in my OP makes for illuminating reading when it comes to how a list and expectations can change, this is my list of our best youth from April 2016-
______________________________________________
the best dozen of the 23 and unders IMO.
lions- j.green, s.mayes, m.paparone, l.taylor, t.cutler, d.mcstay, d.gardner, l.dawson, j.schache, h.andrews, b.keays, r.matheison. note: all but green are 21 or under.
__________________________________________

Also youth on our list at that time and still with us were Sam Skinner, Archie Smith and Eric Hipwood.

IMO we are in a lot better position now, here is our 22 and under side now-

Brandon Starcevich, Jack Payne, Mitchell Hinge.
Alex Witherden, Harris Andrews, Noah Answerth.

Connor Ballenden, Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage.
Rhys Mathieson, Zac Bailey, Ely Smith.

Cameron Rayner, Eric Hipwood, Cedric Cox.
Tom Berry, Sam Skinner, Toby Wooller.

Int- Connor McFadyen, Tom Joyce, Jacob Allison, Corey Lyons.

Also available- Tom Fullarton, James Madden.

History tells you that a significant portion of those 24 players will not make it as serviceable regular AFL players, as for the other side of the coin I think we can confidently say that Alex Witherden, Harris Andrews, Noah Answerth, Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage and Eric Hipwwod will be good to elite players. I'm also bullish on the potential of Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey, Rhys Mathieson and Cedric Cox. The rest have not had enough senior time to make an educated judgement at this time apart from Jacob Allison who probably wont make it.

Callum Ah Chee is in this age group as well. Drafted in 2015, same as Hipwood, Mathieson and Skinner.

 

[lionshine]

I think we are in a somewhat unique position where we have stars in every area of the ground which should result in us competing for the next few years, e.g. Zorko, Neale, Rich, Andrews, Cameron and they are surrounded by quality role players in their primes e.g. Robinson, Martin, Lyons, Gardiner, Adams, McCarthy, Birchall, Ellis-Yolmen. Underneath all of that experienced quality, however, is a huge wave of elite young talent coming through which should see us improve year after year. McCluggage, Rayner, Hipwood, Berry, Witherden, Bailey, Answerth, O-Mac, Ah Chee, Cox, Starcevich, E.Smith, T.Berry, Joyce, Payne, Ballenden. I think our list will continue to improve year on year and I think Fagan and Noble are setting us up for sustained success. They'll be thinking big like all successful people do. They'll be aiming for 4+ premierships over the next 15 or so years. Very exciting times to be a Lions fan. Most talented list we've had since the early 2000's.