Prediction How many games will the AFC win in 2025?

[JPetro83]

12 or 13 wins i think. 13 with good % will get us in the 8 you'd think. 12 wins has us miss and we get what we also want... Nicks to be sacked.

 

[PCORF]

12 or 13 wins i think. 13 with good % will get us in the 8 you'd think. 12 wins has us miss and we get what we also want... Nicks to be sacked.

12 wins better.

 

[GROTTO]

Given its preseason, I thought as an exercise I would go ahead and try and predict which games in the H&A season we may win.

Interestingly I arrived at 13W for 2025 which included 4 losses at AO, the line given by the bookies is 12.5W. While 13W was enough to make the 8 in 2024, it should be noted that the Pies ended up with same premiership counts as 8th place, ie 12W and 2D but missed out on percentage.

Under Nicks in 2024 we lost 7 "home" games, 4 in 2023, 7 in 2022 and 2021 and 8 in 2020.

AFC 2025 Fixture

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25​	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	W
3	30/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25​	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	W
7	25/04/25​	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	W
9	10/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	W
10	17/05/25​	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L
11	25/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25​	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25​	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L
16	28/06/25​	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25​	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	L
22	8/08/25​	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	W
23	15/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L
24	22/08/25​	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	13

Well that makes it 9-0 accurate preseason predictions about the Crows in 2025 from Rounds 1-9.

According the spreadsheet, I have us losing this week to the Pies.

Would love to be wrong.

 

[Coopers]

Well that makes it 9-0 accurate preseason predictions about the Crows in 2025 from Rounds 1-9.

According the spreadsheet, I have us losing this week to the Pies.

Would love to be wrong.

ALL HAIL THE SPREADSHEET!

 

[GROTTO]

ALL HAIL THE SPREADSHEET!

Not really sure what this means?

 

[Robo87]

Not really sure what this means?

maybe hes been betting on your spreadsheet predictions..

 

[1970crow]

Not really sure what this means?

A bit like the Simpsons inanimate carbon rod. Instead of you getting the credit for getting 9/9 AFC games correct, he's crediting the inaminate object that you recorded them on.

 

[GROTTO]

maybe hes been betting on your spreadsheet predictions..

I have us winning 13 games, with losses to Sydney at the G, Lions and Hawks at AO.

Winning one of these 3 games (assuming the rest pan out correctly) will lead to us making the 8 IMO.

 

[NSolis]

I have us winning 13 games, with losses to Sydney at the G, Lions and Hawks at AO.

Winning one of these 3 games (assuming the rest pan out correctly) will lead to us making the 8 IMO.

Good chance that one team with 13 mins makes the eight I think, given how things are shaping up. So 13 might be enough given our percentage at this point.

I ran the ladder simulator at squiggle a bunch of times and it only had 14 wins required for 8th about 10% of the time. Sometimes (around 40%) you'd have two teams on 13 wins with one in 8th and one in 9th though. So the good percentage should be valuable.

 

[GROTTO]

Good chance that one team with 13 mins makes the eight I think, given how things are shaping up. So 13 might be enough given our percentage at this point.

I ran the ladder simulator at squiggle a bunch of times and it only had 14 wins required for 8th about 10% of the time. Sometimes (around 40%) you'd have two teams on 13 wins with one in 8th and one in 9th though. So the good percentage should be valuable.

Interestingly that 14th win on Squiggle comes from us beating the Lions at AO.

I guess it just depends which version of the Lions will get that day, the North version or the Premiership version.

 

[Crows I Am]

Interestingly that 14th win on Squiggle comes from us beating the Lions at AO.

I guess it just depends which version of the Lions will get that day, the North version or the Premiership version.

I think we can win one of the games against Sydney, Lions or Bulldogs which helps get us to the 14 wins.

 

[GreyCrow]

I think we can win one of the games against Sydney, Lions or Bulldogs which helps get us to the 14 wins.

Sydney are trash

 

[Pugsley]

Not really sure what this means?

He speaks in strange riddles. I best stop flooding the thread.

 

[Coopers]

Not really sure what this means?

It means it's pretty amazing you picked it so far out and haven't gotten it wrong yet.

So I reckon we now have created a Schrödinger kind of situation where the spreadsheet may be dictating reality. At least we can't tell the difference.

 

[Scorpus]

Given its preseason, I thought as an exercise I would go ahead and try and predict which games in the H&A season we may win.

Interestingly I arrived at 13W for 2025 which included 4 losses at AO, the line given by the bookies is 12.5W. While 13W was enough to make the 8 in 2024, it should be noted that the Pies ended up with same premiership counts as 8th place, ie 12W and 2D but missed out on percentage.

Under Nicks in 2024 we lost 7 "home" games, 4 in 2023, 7 in 2022 and 2021 and 8 in 2020.

AFC 2025 Fixture

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25​	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	W
3	30/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25​	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	W
7	25/04/25​	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	W
9	10/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	W
10	17/05/25​	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L
11	25/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25​	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25​	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L
16	28/06/25​	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25​	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	L
22	8/08/25​	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	W
23	15/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L
24	22/08/25​	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	13

10 correct predictions in a row here.

Most predictable season in our history

 

[crowholder]

10 correct predictions in a row here.

Most predictable season in our history

Awesome predictions by Grotto so far. Well done I hope, for our sake, we do better in the next 4 weeks though. Sydney and Brisbane games may be close?

 

[Robo87]

Awesome predictions by Grotto so far. Well done I hope, for our sake, we do better in the next 4 weeks though. Sydney and Brisbane games may be close?

amartey out of the crows/swans clash makes me like the crows more now.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

amartey out of the crows/swans clash makes me like the crows more now.

Keane likes this.

 

[crowholder]

Keane likes this.

No Amartey Party

 

[dogs105]

However many it takes to play finals. Plus 4!

Needed 14 to make finals. Plus 4 is 18, so you're spot on.

 

[dogs105]

17

Pessimist.

 

[Freomaniac]

Yep, a Rip Van Winkle situation

View attachment 2214323

Dwayne Russell said some crazy predictions, but he got this one right

 

[Freomaniac]

14 wins

This is the most positive I have been at the start of the season in a long time. If we can avoid injury to key players we are an outside chance at a top 4.

We have 9 potential A graders. Fog, RT, Rankine, Rachele, Dawson, Hinge, Draper, Soligo, Murray. My biggest concern is rucking depth.

Bring it on. Can't wait.

I also predicted 14 wins and 9 losses for the crows at the start of the season too for the crows.

That would of meant 5th or 6th. So home Elim final then an away semi final loss in a normal outcome.

It was a weird season

 

[texanmike]

21 is the magic number, come on adelaide

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Executive Landlord as accurate as usual lol.