I feel that it’s obvious our next flag will be made up of players who are currently 25 or younger. I’d even be inclined to say 24 or younger but I suspect that Kerr might end up being our old bloke the next time we play the final week of September and he’s currently 25.
Anyway, as a result of that, I’ve decided to make a prediction of the order of when our older players will retire or be delisted.
I suppose I’m just doing it for a reference to see how well I can predict these things and how far off our flag we are (we can cross off the names of our champions together).
So here it is, from the first to go to the last and assuming no career ending injuries and the like:
Gone after 2009:
1st. Fletcher – Out of contract at the end of the year. Hasn’t really played well for a number of years and the writing is on the wall. Easy call to make.
2nd. Wirrapanda – Out of contract at the end of the year, a club legend, all round nice guy but he’s been playing 13 seasons and his body isn’t the best. Chances are he’s also gone.
At a stretch he’ll get another 1 year signature but I don’t see the point.
3rd. Adam Hunter – I reckon he’ll retire at the end of the season with his shoulder injury. He’s out of contract at the end of this season and I don’t think we’d commit to him for more than 2 years, at the absolute most, with his shoulder complaints. So at best he survives until 2011 but realistically he's already gone.
Gone after 2010:
4th. Stenglien – Contract ends after 2010 season (Stinger will be 30 at that point) and I can’t see why we would keep him after that. Chances are after that our midfield will be a lot better by then and there will be no room for him.
Gone after 2011:
5th. Jones – Contract ends at the end of 2011 season (Brett will be 29). I’m not sure he has the ability to get another contact and we will probably be experimenting with other, younger defenders in a similar role to his current one.
6th. Hansen - Contract ends after 2011 (Ash will be 28). If he’s not traded before this, 2011 will be Hansen’s last season. He can’t play many positions and we have a few guys who are already better than he is in those particular roles.
This is where it gets hard because I’m assuming the following players will win contract extensions.
7th. Embley – I can see him winning a 2 year deal at the end of his current contract that expires in about 5 or 6 months. That should see him out until the end of 2011, when Embers will be 30. At this point, you’d hope that we have too many good players to have Embley playing a big role at that age.
Another possibility is that Embley gets contracted for 3 more years after this season. That would see him leave at the end of 2012, with Cox.
Gone after 2012:
8th. Cox – Similar to Embley, Cox should secure a 1 year deal after his current contract runs out at the end of 2011. This 1 year deal would see Cox stay an Eagle until 2012, when he’d be 31. That would probably be the end of Dean, who should’ve been superseded by Naitanui before he leaves us.
Again, a 2 year deal isn’t out of the question, instead of the 1 year signature I’m predicting. If that happened he would leave with Lynch after the 2013 season.
Gone after 2013:
9th. Lynch – I think Lynch will secure a 3 year deal after his current contract expires, which will leave him uncontracted after the 2013 season. At that point Lynch will be 30 and it will probably be the right time to go. It’s hard to make comments so far into the future but we’d be in a bad way if we still needed the Glove in our 22.
Of course, the Big Q could be offered a 2 year deal after his current one, which would mean he leaves after 2012 at 29 years of age rather than the above scenario. I think that will depend on how cautious we are and how well our KP forwards develop.
10th. Glass – Should score a 2 or 3 year deal after his current contract expires. That will mean he’s with us until the end of 2012 or 2013. At which point he’d be 31 or 32 respectively.
Glass will no doubt be important in the development of Mackenzie and any other KP defender we bring in and he could very well finish his career as a third tall. I think it’s fair to say Glass’ future is that hardest to predict because his current contract runs out at the awkward age for a footballer, of 29.
After all of that our list should look roughly like this:
Kerr - 30
Selwood – 29
Priddis – 28
Butler - 27
Waters – 27
LeCras - 27
McKinley -26
Kennedy - 26
Hurn -26
MacKenzie – 25
Brown -25
Masten – 24
Selwood - 23
Ebert - 23
Naitanui - 23
Notte- 23
Shuey - 23
Swift- 23
Smith -23
Naturally I’m expecting to lose guys like Staker, Seaby, Wilkes and a heap of others along the way and of course we're going to have more draftees on the list but generally speaking the above list of survivees should be our core.
Notice the nice spread of senior players (perhaps too senior) mixed in with plenty of guys around 23/24? Should be time for a flag push.
Any comments?
Anyway, as a result of that, I’ve decided to make a prediction of the order of when our older players will retire or be delisted.
I suppose I’m just doing it for a reference to see how well I can predict these things and how far off our flag we are (we can cross off the names of our champions together).
So here it is, from the first to go to the last and assuming no career ending injuries and the like:
Gone after 2009:
1st. Fletcher – Out of contract at the end of the year. Hasn’t really played well for a number of years and the writing is on the wall. Easy call to make.
2nd. Wirrapanda – Out of contract at the end of the year, a club legend, all round nice guy but he’s been playing 13 seasons and his body isn’t the best. Chances are he’s also gone.
At a stretch he’ll get another 1 year signature but I don’t see the point.
3rd. Adam Hunter – I reckon he’ll retire at the end of the season with his shoulder injury. He’s out of contract at the end of this season and I don’t think we’d commit to him for more than 2 years, at the absolute most, with his shoulder complaints. So at best he survives until 2011 but realistically he's already gone.
Gone after 2010:
4th. Stenglien – Contract ends after 2010 season (Stinger will be 30 at that point) and I can’t see why we would keep him after that. Chances are after that our midfield will be a lot better by then and there will be no room for him.
Gone after 2011:
5th. Jones – Contract ends at the end of 2011 season (Brett will be 29). I’m not sure he has the ability to get another contact and we will probably be experimenting with other, younger defenders in a similar role to his current one.
6th. Hansen - Contract ends after 2011 (Ash will be 28). If he’s not traded before this, 2011 will be Hansen’s last season. He can’t play many positions and we have a few guys who are already better than he is in those particular roles.
This is where it gets hard because I’m assuming the following players will win contract extensions.
7th. Embley – I can see him winning a 2 year deal at the end of his current contract that expires in about 5 or 6 months. That should see him out until the end of 2011, when Embers will be 30. At this point, you’d hope that we have too many good players to have Embley playing a big role at that age.
Another possibility is that Embley gets contracted for 3 more years after this season. That would see him leave at the end of 2012, with Cox.
Gone after 2012:
8th. Cox – Similar to Embley, Cox should secure a 1 year deal after his current contract runs out at the end of 2011. This 1 year deal would see Cox stay an Eagle until 2012, when he’d be 31. That would probably be the end of Dean, who should’ve been superseded by Naitanui before he leaves us.
Again, a 2 year deal isn’t out of the question, instead of the 1 year signature I’m predicting. If that happened he would leave with Lynch after the 2013 season.
Gone after 2013:
9th. Lynch – I think Lynch will secure a 3 year deal after his current contract expires, which will leave him uncontracted after the 2013 season. At that point Lynch will be 30 and it will probably be the right time to go. It’s hard to make comments so far into the future but we’d be in a bad way if we still needed the Glove in our 22.
Of course, the Big Q could be offered a 2 year deal after his current one, which would mean he leaves after 2012 at 29 years of age rather than the above scenario. I think that will depend on how cautious we are and how well our KP forwards develop.
10th. Glass – Should score a 2 or 3 year deal after his current contract expires. That will mean he’s with us until the end of 2012 or 2013. At which point he’d be 31 or 32 respectively.
Glass will no doubt be important in the development of Mackenzie and any other KP defender we bring in and he could very well finish his career as a third tall. I think it’s fair to say Glass’ future is that hardest to predict because his current contract runs out at the awkward age for a footballer, of 29.
After all of that our list should look roughly like this:
Kerr - 30
Selwood – 29
Priddis – 28
Butler - 27
Waters – 27
LeCras - 27
McKinley -26
Kennedy - 26
Hurn -26
MacKenzie – 25
Brown -25
Masten – 24
Selwood - 23
Ebert - 23
Naitanui - 23
Notte- 23
Shuey - 23
Swift- 23
Smith -23
Naturally I’m expecting to lose guys like Staker, Seaby, Wilkes and a heap of others along the way and of course we're going to have more draftees on the list but generally speaking the above list of survivees should be our core.
Notice the nice spread of senior players (perhaps too senior) mixed in with plenty of guys around 23/24? Should be time for a flag push.
Any comments?
