Ideal result for final rounds.

[borderbarry]

We win all the remaining games except one and get into Final Four.
(One we lose is to Fremantle, providing they have beaten W.C.E., thus giving them 5 wins, and excluding them from PP at end of lst round. To get this result we could rest Roo, Max, Steve King, Ballsy, and maybe Sam Fish or Gram). We would then go into finals in an excellent position.

 

[Squizz]

Or just worry about this week and our interstate record which remains poor? - cause what will happen will happen (regardless of well made plans).

 

[The Punter]

To put it quite simply, the ideal result for St Kilda is:

For St Kilda to win its remaining 6 games.
For any games between the teams in position 1-3 on the ladder and teams 4-12 on the ladder that don't include St Kilda to be won by the team in position 1-3.
For any games between the teams in position 13-16 on the ladder and teams 4-12 on the ladder that don't include St Kilda to be won by the team in position 13-16.
For the other games to roughly be split evenly between teams in positions 4-12 on the ladder.

 

[Dudley]

To put it quite simply, the ideal result for St Kilda is:

For St Kilda to win its remaining 6 games.
For any games between the teams in position 1-3 on the ladder and teams 4-12 on the ladder that don't include St Kilda to be won by the team in position 1-3.
For any games between the teams in position 13-16 on the ladder and teams 4-12 on the ladder that don't include St Kilda to be won by the team in position 13-16.
For the other games to roughly be split evenly between teams in positions 4-12 on the ladder.

Will all this happen before R Harvey ascends into heaven to be accepted as the son of God ?

Or after ?

 

[Signd Sealed Saint]

Hate to use the cliche but take it one week at a time. West Coast are on fire at the moment, they only lost by 46 points which is quite good for them . All jokes aside, they do have some fantastic players in that side. Cox is an absolute gun, Embley and Priddis are getting plenty of it and the big Q had a good match last week. Watch out Saints

 

[ChrisL#12]

We will drop the Freo game. 2 games at Subi in 4 weeks is a bit much. We should win the rest but I'm quietly concerned about Collingwood also. Could go either way but I'm worried. Top four would be awesome and I think if we get the double chance we can shake the flag. I can't see any reason why we can't beat Geelong at the G and the Hawks and Dogs aren't that good.

 

[beejay]

im in the same boat as some as saying dont take this game lightly because we are normally terrible but then i also wonder are we being so hesitant about this game just because we dont have great success over here? lets hope its the latter but hope gardiner comes in plays against cox will be interesting and dont need rix hes not in the pecking order imo. i think ideally we would win all except the one against the pies but i dont mind if we knock them off n lose to freo but if we keep playin in form winning all the remainders are a chance but the constant travel may come to bite us in the ass!

 

[makemytime]

Win Every Game, Including THE ONE AGAINST THE PIES

cox may be an issue, i don't think king or gardiner have the tank to run with him, will need to rotate a lot and blake may very well play a part too

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The Saints have the ability to win any of the remaining games.
It will be a test of their focus whether they can win them all.
IMO none of them should be taken lightly.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

The Saints have the ability to win any of the remaining games.
It will be a test of their focus whether they can win them all.
IMO none of them should be taken lightly.

Exactly. Without taking a trip to negative town we've seen how injury has cut us down in the past and fingers crossed we're hitting form at the right time. Let's just enjoy it and take care of our business. If that's good enough to make the top 4, then we can reassess.

 

[CHBench]

The two biggest games i see for us is against Collingwood and Port. Beating another top 5 side would do us a world of good, and keep the momentum well truly with us. Also need to break the hoodoo Port hold over us, no better time than the present. I would be expecting 4 wins out of the next 6 but all 6 is definatly achievable.

 

[mailman4]

For us to make the 4 obviously we have to catch Sydney who are 6 points ahead atm. I just sussed out their draw and they have 3 games they could easily lose...Bulldogs at MO, Geelong at ANZ and Collingwood at TD. Now if they lost all 3 games we could afford to drop 1 ourselves (fremantle or collingwood). The 2 other teams competing for our spot are Collingwood and Brisbane. Brisbane have a very hard run home and i highly doubt they'll win enough to make it (games against W.B., Hawthorn and Sydney). Collingwood's most likely loss will come against Hawthorn (and us), with danger games against P.A. and Fremantle (both away) and Sydney.

So my main point is for us to make the 4, which is vertially the only place you can win a G.F. from, is to...
1. Beat Collingwood
2. Not lose any games that we should win
3. Sydney lose at least 2 of their of their 3 games
4. Collingwood lose 1 of their other matches.

We tick of those 4 points and the top 4 is ours!!

 

[Signd Sealed Saint]

Think we're forgetting about the Crows game here. They're a fair side and Neil Craig is a wonderful coach, i think that's the second hardest game we have after the Pies. Port will be tough since they'll obviously win against Freo so they'll be coming off two good wins and have some momentum. Also 2 trips to Perth isn't gonna do us any good since we have Adelaide after Freo. Essendon are in good form too and if they keep that up they wont be easy beats either. Every game we have is tough from here

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Think we're forgetting about the Crows game here. They're a fair side and Neil Craig is a wonderful coach, i think that's the second hardest game we have after the Pies. Port will be tough since they'll obviously win against Freo so they'll be coming off two good wins and have some momentum. Also 2 trips to Perth isn't gonna do us any good since we have Adelaide after Freo. Essendon are in good form too and if they keep that up they wont be easy beats either. Every game we have is tough from here

Before last weekend we were the only team that Port had beaten. If they win against us at Telstr dome I think that makes us their bitch.

 

[Harvey's Crew]

Before last weekend we were the only team that Port had beaten. If they win against us at Telstr dome I think that makes us their bitch.

lol that is true, but only because we've been playing our home games in tasmania against them. They have owned us there but I'm really confident we'll beat them at the dome with the crowd and no one in that team will contain Riewoldt in this form.

 

[The Punter]

West Coast are travelling terribly.

Port Adelaide are tanking. The only thing more important to them than getting right for next year is beating Adelaide.

Who knows what Collingwood team will turn up, but Grant Thomas had presided over four consecutive wins over the Pies before he was sacked. That wasn't that long ago, and Collingwood were a finals team in 2006.

Fremantle are a joke of a club.

Adelaide don't have any forwards, I don't rate their coach (especially in the 2nd half of seasons), and are the only team in the league to be winless from their last five games, other than West Coast.

Essendon are beyond injured at the moment.

Having said all that, I do agree that we should take no team lightly. But we have a lot of things going for us as a club at the moment.

We have a fairly settled lineup (likely only one change for this week).
Our better players are playing well (Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Ball, Hayes, Harvey, S Fisher, Hudghton, Gram, Goddard, Montagna).
We have found players who can exert forward pressure (Eddy, Jones, Armitage).
We have a good ruck group (King, Blake, Kosi, M Gardiner).
We are kicking goals (18 each of the last two weeks).

We should beat West Coast, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Adelaide & Essendon. Collingwood is probably a coin flip, considering the game is a night game at the MCG.

 

[Squizz]

Our record against Port is poor, Collingwood seem to match up well and have pipped us for last quarter run a few times, and we haven't fared at all well against Freo over there.

Really looking forward to a number of games in the run home to see if we can start re-writing history (as we have seen with the comebacks this year).

Obviously with our travel record (will be watching Milne closely this week) the WCE game is a good place to start in terms of the record books.

 

[Persevering Saint]

How badly do we want the top four? I mean, is it perhaps better to finish 5th? Hear my reasoning: You finish 4th and lose to Geelong (a highly likely scenario), the week-off advantage is gone, so you might as well have finished 5th anyway. And from that point on, you're scarred from that loss.

Instead, if you finish 5th, you win against the 8th team (who are probably just making up the numbers anyway... ah, if only it could be Carlton...), then travel into the next week with a home game to the team that just got crushed by Geelong (or the Doggies/Hawks - can someone clear that up for me...?), beat them, and then on we go until the GF.

OF COURSE we want to score a week off, but that is highly unlikely if we take the 4th spot, given the collussus which is Geelong.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

But if we play Geelong in week 1, we dont have to play them again until the Granny.

Plus we can afford to just out and try something different, knowing it doesnt matter if we lost. And if we pulled an upset well...jeez.

Finishing 5th means you have to travel for the next 2 weeks, or at least play away. Im not entirely sure who plays who. But I'd assume the loser of 1v4 plays the winner of 6v7 and the loser of 2v3 plays the winner of 5v8.

 

[The Punter]

The 5-8 statistics don't augur well for making a Grand Final.

2000

Top four: Essendon, Carlton, Melbourne, Kangaroos
5-8: Geelong, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn
Semi Final results: Carlton d Brisbane, Kangaroos d Hawthorn
Preliminary Finalists: Essendon, Carlton, Melbourne, Kangaroos
Grand Final: Essendon v Melbourne (1v3)

2001

Top four: Essendon, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Richmond
5-8: Carlton, Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide
Semi Final results: Richmond d Carlton, Hawthorn d Port Adelaide
Preliminary Finalists: Essendon, Brisbane, Richmond, Hawthorn
Grand Final: Essendon v Brisbane (1v2)

2002

Top four: Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Adelaide, Collingwood
5-8: Essendon, Melbourne, Kangaroos, West Coast
Semi Final results: Port Adelaide d Essendon, Adelaide d Melbourne
Preliminary Finalists: Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Adelaide, Collingwood
Grand Final: Brisbane v Collingwood (2v4)

2003

Top four: Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane, Sydney
5-8: Fremantle, Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon
Semi Final results: Port Adelaide d Essendon, Brisbane d Adelaide
Preliminary Finalists: Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane, Sydney
Grand Final: Collingwood v Brisbane (2v3)

2004

Top four: Port Adelaide, Brisbane, St Kilda, Geelong
5-8: Melbourne, Sydney, West Coast, Essendon
Semi Final results: St Kilda d Sydney, Geelong d Essendon
Preliminary Finalists: Port Adelaide, Brisbane, St Kilda, Geelong
Grand Final: Port Adelaide v Brisbane (1v2)

2005

Top four: Adelaide, West Coast, Sydney, St Kilda
5-8: Geelong, Kangaroos, Port Adelaide, Melbourne
Semi Final results: Sydney d Geelong, Adelaide d Port Adelaide
Preliminary Finalists: Adelaide, West Coast, Sydney, St Kilda
Grand Final: West Coast v Sydney (2v3)

2006

Top four: West Coast, Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
5-8: St Kilda, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne
Semi Final results: Fremantle d Melbourne, West Coast d Western Bulldogs
Preliminary Finalists: West Coast, Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
Grand Final: West Coast v Sydney (1v4)

2007

Top four: Geelong, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Kangaroos
5-8: Hawthorn, Collingwood, Sydney, Adelaide
Semi Final results: Kangaroos d Hawthorn, Collingwood d West Coast
Preliminary Finalists: Geelong, Port Adelaide, Kangaroos, Collingwood
Grand Final: Geelong v Port Adelaide (1v2)

Two out of 16 5-8 teams have won semi finals under the current system. That's why it is so important to make top four.

However, teams finishing 3rd or 4th have played in 5 Grand Finals in this period. So working it out

Percentage of 5-8 teams making Preliminary Final: 12.5%
Percentage of 3-4 teams making Grand Final: 31.25%

Finishing 4th would be a huge result for the club.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The 5-8 statistics don't augur well for making a Grand Final.

2000

Top four: Essendon, Carlton, Melbourne, Kangaroos
5-8: Geelong, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn
Semi Final results: Carlton d Brisbane, Kangaroos d Hawthorn
Preliminary Finalists: Essendon, Carlton, Melbourne, Kangaroos
Grand Final: Essendon v Melbourne (1v3)

2001

Top four: Essendon, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Richmond
5-8: Carlton, Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide
Semi Final results: Richmond d Carlton, Hawthorn d Port Adelaide
Preliminary Finalists: Essendon, Brisbane, Richmond, Hawthorn
Grand Final: Essendon v Brisbane (1v2)

2002

Top four: Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Adelaide, Collingwood
5-8: Essendon, Melbourne, Kangaroos, West Coast
Semi Final results: Port Adelaide d Essendon, Adelaide d Melbourne
Preliminary Finalists: Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Adelaide, Collingwood
Grand Final: Brisbane v Collingwood (2v4)

2003

Top four: Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane, Sydney
5-8: Fremantle, Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon
Semi Final results: Port Adelaide d Essendon, Brisbane d Adelaide
Preliminary Finalists: Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane, Sydney
Grand Final: Collingwood v Brisbane (2v3)

2004

Top four: Port Adelaide, Brisbane, St Kilda, Geelong
5-8: Melbourne, Sydney, West Coast, Essendon
Semi Final results: St Kilda d Sydney, Geelong d Essendon
Preliminary Finalists: Port Adelaide, Brisbane, St Kilda, Geelong
Grand Final: Port Adelaide v Brisbane (1v2)

2005

Top four: Adelaide, West Coast, Sydney, St Kilda
5-8: Geelong, Kangaroos, Port Adelaide, Melbourne
Semi Final results: Sydney d Geelong, Adelaide d Port Adelaide
Preliminary Finalists: Adelaide, West Coast, Sydney, St Kilda
Grand Final: West Coast v Sydney (2v3)

2006

Top four: West Coast, Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
5-8: St Kilda, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne
Semi Final results: Fremantle d Melbourne, West Coast d Western Bulldogs
Preliminary Finalists: West Coast, Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
Grand Final: West Coast v Sydney (1v4)

2007

Top four: Geelong, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Kangaroos
5-8: Hawthorn, Collingwood, Sydney, Adelaide
Semi Final results: Kangaroos d Hawthorn, Collingwood d West Coast
Preliminary Finalists: Geelong, Port Adelaide, Kangaroos, Collingwood
Grand Final: Geelong v Port Adelaide (1v2)

Two out of 16 5-8 teams have won semi finals under the current system. That's why it is so important to make top four.

However, teams finishing 3rd or 4th have played in 5 Grand Finals in this period. So working it out

Percentage of 5-8 teams making Preliminary Final: 12.5%
Percentage of 3-4 teams making Grand Final: 31.25%

Finishing 4th would be a huge result for the club.

There is a statistical reason for this. The home and away season usually puts the best teams in the top positions. It is more probable that the best of the bottom four teams will lose to the best of the top four teams.
The whole system is designed so that the best teams get into the grand final. As you move down the ladder it is less likely that the best team would be in that position so it is less likely the team from that postion get into the grand final.

So it is more important to be good enough to be in fourth position than it is to be in fourth position.

It is different if St Kilda is in 5th position since all of us here know that the Saints are in fact the best team. ( Note the rose color)

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

If you were a Victorian club, then finishing 5th might not be as bad. Given that potentially 4 Victorian sides could finish top 4, hence no travelling, etc.

I wouldn't mind copping Geelong in the first week if we finished Top 4, as we wouldn't meet them again until the Grand Final if we were lucky enough.

I was thinking about this last night. I was getting a tad excited and then had to remind myself that we have 6 games to go and everything will be lost if we don't beat the Eagles this week.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

If you were a Victorian club, then finishing 5th might not be as bad. Given that potentially 4 Victorian sides could finish top 4, hence no travelling, etc.

I wouldn't mind copping Geelong in the first week if we finished Top 4, as we wouldn't meet them again until the Grand Final if we were lucky enough.

I was thinking about this last night. I was getting a tad excited and then had to remind myself that we have 6 games to go and everything will be lost if we don't beat the Eagles this week.

We're St Kilda supporters, I think we're allowed to do this.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

We're St Kilda supporters, I think we're allowed to do this.

Spot on brother.


BRING ON THE CATS!

 

[Squizz]

Or just worry about this week and our interstate record which remains poor? - cause what will happen will happen (regardless of well made plans).

Some posters should be quite in getting well ahead of themselves.

We have had terrible interstate performances against Port, Brisbane and Sydney interstate, and just because we beat another Melbourne club interstate we think the travel problems just go away?

Just stick with threads on the game just passed or just coming. Otherwise we may as well start psycho-analysing Round 3 next year.