Inside 50s - a lie

[Vessel]

This stat has been pissing me off the last couple of weeks. It has been such a meaningless stat for the crows all year which keeps getting trundled out to show how competitive we are.

If you kick the ball inside 50 directly to an opposition defender you are doing your team no favours in todays fast rebounding game.

I remember last year pin point passes to porps, walker, even tippett on the lead. This year all I see are sky high bombs to the top of the square and tippett trying to outmark three defenders. (to his credit he gets the ball to ground almost everytime) We have no small crumbing forwards, we have three leading forwards.

Lets hit a few forwards at pace, lace out!

 

[Vader]

Our large number of I50s is a reflection of how successful our zone defence has been. When the zone is working well, we're able to turn the ball over quickly when the opposition try to clear it, pumping it back into the F50 where it belongs.

What it most certainly is NOT is an indicator of how well our forward line is (or isn't) functioning. It's also NOT an indicator of how well (or poorly) our F50 entries are being directed.

Taken for what it is, it's a valid statistic. However, it's definitely open to abuse as you have suggested.

 

[sbenno]

So really what your saying is not that the i50 stat is bad, more that the way we get it in there is terrible.

Perhaps there should be an i50 efficiency stat?

If we were more efficient in the way we got the ball inside 50 (like lace-out passes to forwards) then i50's would be a key stat.

so... I kinda agree, i50's can be misleading if that's all your looking at, but since when have statistics told the whole story?

 

[Vessel]

I definitely agree that our zone has been working incredibly well, especially at AAMI due the ground size/shape.

It does worry me however when we say the Inside 50s were similar, so the clearance differential does not matter.

Bullies got some easy goals due to clearances which for my mind was the difference in the game. We dominated posession most of the game and appeared to be in control, yet we could not get any decent shots on goal. That last quarter slog had how many inside 50s with no marks.

 

[RoosterLad]

It is a very misleading statistic. If the ball lands 49m out that is an I50 isn't it? Or if the ball is just pumped long and straight to a defender for an easy chest mark.

An effiency stat would be better as sbenno suggested.

 

[sbenno]

I definitely agree that our zone has been working incredibly well, especially at AAMI due the ground size/shape.

It does worry me however when we say the Inside 50s were similar, so the clearance differential does not matter.

Bullies got some easy goals due to clearances which for my mind was the difference in the game. We dominated posession most of the game and appeared to be in control, yet we could not get any decent shots on goal. That last quarter slog had how many inside 50s with no marks.

That's exactly the reason the stat can be misleading. 14 i50's for a solitary behind in the last quarter.

 

[Cap]

i'd love to see the stats on ignored leads (not that it would really mean something but I need it to make a point so shut up )

the mentality of our forward entries hasn't changed in 10 years. Its safety first until all the leads dry up and then bomb it in as high as it goes.

I've never seen other teams bring the ball in like we do, unless like us now we are bottom 4 team, even then its generally less wasteful because they don't get it there very often.

 

[FlyingCrow]

This stat has been pissing me off the last couple of weeks. It has been such a meaningless stat for the crows all year which keeps getting trundled out to show how competitive we are.

If you kick the ball inside 50 directly to an opposition defender you are doing your team no favours in todays fast rebounding game.

I remember last year pin point passes to porps, walker, even tippett on the lead. This year all I see are sky high bombs to the top of the square and tippett trying to outmark three defenders. (to his credit he gets the ball to ground almost everytime) We have no small crumbing forwards, we have three leading forwards.

Lets hit a few forwards at pace, lace out!

Difference being Reilly and Dougie are among our best mids this year.

Instead of Vince Porp, Knighta and MacKay.

 

[VSTone]

it's all about scoring shots in my opinion...
have 10 more than the opposition and you'll rarely loose...

all these other stats don't mean squat
scoreboard pressure is king always.... forever.... amen

 

[Crow-mo]

i'm confused. no one thinks any one stat tells the full story. who ever said it did?

I50 is a very good indicator of midfield ascendancy - check colling vs geelong. that geelong only
got in 36 odd times is telling, as is the fact they couldn't keep the pies out.

I50 differential might be one of the most important indicators of how a team is travelling.

you combine I50 with scoring shots, marks inside 50, and rebound 50 and you get a pretty decent view of entry quality and fwd efficiency.

14 I50's with 1 scoring shot paints a fairly clear picture.

 

[smoovy]

Agree with Crow-mo. That stat is exactly what it is, tells you how many times you get it down there. If you want to know your forward efficiency simply divide the number of scoring shots by the I50s.

When we had our good run we had a large I50 differential. In the last few games the I50s have been even, therefore you have to rely on other aspects of the game to win...i.e. finishing.

I tell you what is a bad stat for the Crows, that is a negative I50 differential. Very rarely do we win those games. A simple formula for a Crows win is a positive I50 differential and greater than 50 entries.

I ****ing live inside 50s.

 

[smoovy]

it's all about scoring shots in my opinion...
have 10 more than the opposition and you'll rarely loose...

all these other stats don't mean squat
scoreboard pressure is king always.... forever.... amen

You can take it even further. How about the team that has the most points wins the game? where dos it end?

All the little stats help paint a picture

 

[Crow-mo]

in 2005/2006 we led the league in I50 differential.

since then... not so much

 

[Mismatched]

As others have said, the inside 50 stat is what it is, its not the ultimate indicater of who won the match and it never will be, unless we start deciding matches on I50's instead of goals and points

It is an indication, and a blood good one at that considering the complexity of our game, of your teams ascendancy across the midfield and defence and can generally be a very good indicator of who won the match.

At the end of last year, I looked at all the teams ranked by their I50 differentials and compared it to the actual Ladder and the two were almost identical. You can't kick goals if the ball doesn't enter your forward 50, simple as that and so the more times you enter the forward 50, the more chances your forwards have of kicking goals.

You could have the best I50 conversion ratio in Australia and yet if you don't get the ball inside 50 enough, you just won't win the game.

I50 is a great KPI, but it must be remember that it is an indicator of performance, it doesn't substitute actually kicking the goals themselves and to expect it to is just stupid.

 

[RocknRoll]

I have been thinking about this a bit recently. I think the meaningful stats (dependent variables for you Stabby) differ for the different roles on the ground.

eg.
mids care about I50 differential between the teams. If the mids can get more inside 50s than the other side they are more or less doing their job. When I talk about inside 50's I mean inside 50's to target, not just any old I50 that comes straight back. I think only about 50% of I50s are effective to a target. Champion Data differentiate between effective and ineffective inside 50s that the coaches would have access to.

Forwards care about goal conversion from inside 50s (to target). eg. 60% would be doing OK.

Defence are the opposite of forwards. If they can keep goals scored off all I50s to 20% they are doing well.

Of course each player has sub-roles within this (eg rucks want hitouts to advantage and taggers want few possessions for taggee).

These are just preliminary ideas but I think if they could be better formulated and structured we would get a pretty good idea of sides strengths and weaknesses, way beyond simple measures such as possessions, kicks, handballs or I50s.

Another example. With this idea I think Crows have generally been bad at forward conversion (after Modra, with the odd blip here and there). In the golden days of the Fab 4 the midfield was superb, with a high I50 differential. In 2005 the defence was a rock. I am sure these facts would be reflected by these stats. I am interested if anyone has a better way of expressing this though. Maybe the newspapers could include a stat for forwards/defence and mids for each game. This could be easy enough to do and provide a lot better information. However, the target variables for all zones need to be well - defined first.

EDIT:
These numbers are up sh*t creek.
Not knowing real numbers of I50's to target makes it impossible.
Using average numbers of I50 (whatever they are), say 50 per team per game and 15 goals scored per game (as a guide only) we get
average goals scored per I50 ~ 0.3 (excluding outside I50 goals which are not that common).
So a forward line does well the greater above a 30% goal efficiency per I50.
A defensive line does well the more below 30% goal efficiency per I50 of the opposition.
Enough to give the idea anyway even if the numbers are not exact.
It also ignores efficiency of delivery into the I50, which is a dual responsibility of both forwards and midfielders (and is countered by opposition defence).

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I don't know if this stat is available but I would like to know how many opposition players are in your F50 when you get each inside fifty.

Slow, indirect build ups might end up in a F50 entry but by then the opposition have jammed things up pretty good and you're relying on Tippett clunking a grab against several opponents (and team mates).

Quick breaks from centre clearances, rebounds from the half back line, generating turnovers and precise set plays from kick outs are what give your forwards the best chance and the most space.

 

[smoovy]

^ I actually think our run out of defence has been good. A lot of our attacks do come from the backline which means there are low numbers in our F50. The problem is that our 2 guys down there are outnumbered by their 3. The lower the number the more effective the loose man is. You just need to loook at the pecentages.

3 on 2 is 50% more defenders than forwards
4 on 3 is 33% more
5 on 4 is 25 % more
...and so on

Now I'm not saying to flood our forwardline. The priority has to be to make that loose man accountable. Sides who employ that tactic have been destroying us for years. To let a loose man run free in our forward line is just nonsensical, especially when we are behind.