Inside Info: Pick 10.......

[FAITH]

Inside Info from a recruiter within the Crows.
Assured me Pick 10 will not be Davies or L.Johnstone.

 

[KUNG FU]

Derr

 

[FAITH]

He wouldnt promise me that we wont pick these guys beyond 1st round but definatley not 1st round.

 

[Dandy_GO]

Inside Info from a recruiter within the Crows.
Assured me Pick 10 will not be G.Davies or L.Johnstone.

Thanks for this. I was really worried for a second there that we'd take G. Davies with our first pick.
G. Davies sure would be a big surprise! Heck, I'd even go so far as to say that I'd be a bit shocked if we took G. Davies later on in the draft! There's a lot of question marks over G. Davies, despite the masses and masses of hype surrounding him on this board in particular.

 

[cmndstab]

Did he give any idea as to who you may pick? Or even a type of player?

 

[cmndstab]

Wait, who is G. Davies?

 

[jgb99]

I was speaking to one of the Crows recruiters in WA late in the season and he gave the indication that Nick Heyne was fairly high up the order.

 

[FAITH]

Did he give any idea as to who you may pick? Or even a type of player?

His not sure who will be there at ten, thats what he told me.
But there is a groups of 5-6 he thinks it will be from.
He thinks top 5-6 is locked. then there is 5-6 not sure what order.
He said probably from Hartlett, Yarran, Trengrove, Lisle, Hill, Mckernan and 1 or 2 he wont say.

 

[Alex99]

If we can get Lewis Johnstone with our second pick – that could become a bargain buy. But i am not sure if he is the right fit for us at pick 10.

 

[FAITH]

If we can get Lewis Johnstone with our second pick – that could become a bargain buy. But i am not sure if he is the right fit for us at pick 10.

I was convinced we would go for him after reading BF posts.
But i wonder who the other 1-2 players he wouldnt tell me are. Obviously players that other clubs probably dont rate that highy.
Swift?

 

[cmndstab]

I was convinced we would go for him after reading BF posts.
But i wonder who the other 1-2 players he wouldnt tell me are. Obviously players that other clubs probably dont rate that highy.
Swift?

I can't imagine that many BF posters would really know. Most people have us picking Johnstone just because he's an SA tall.

 

[vlbl]

I've always had a gut feeling that we will either pick up Trengove or Mckernan, mainly because NC and MR have emphasised the need for a tall by the former and how this draft could produce the best talls by the latter.

Also both these guys have the ability to play at both ends of the ground and we all know how much NC loves versatility.

 

[Crowman32]

I'd be really disappointed if we picked McKernan at pick 10. He kicked 4 goals this year for the Calder Cannons and only featured once in the best players. From what i saw he nothing special. This is how i would rate the key position players in this years draft.

1. Watts
2. Hurley
3. Trengove
4. Johnston
5. Davis
6. Lisle
7.Lynch
8. Schoenmaker
9. Mckernan
10. Cornelius
11. Cahill
12. Mitch Brown
13. Michael Still (bottom ager - kicked 41 goals for the years i think)
14 Young

 

[jo172]

You've always got to be sceptical about inside information on fictional footballers

 

[amer]

We'll take Jordan Lisle, dead set certain.

 

[Pietmans]

His not sure who will be there at ten, thats what he told me.
But there is a groups of 5-6 he thinks it will be from.
He thinks top 5-6 is locked. then there is 5-6 not sure what order.
He said probably from Hartlett, Yarran, Trengrove, Lisle, Hill, Mckernan and 1 or 2 he wont say.

Given the names above you would think that the top 5-6 is actually 7 - Watts, Naitanui, Rich, Hurley, Vickery, Sidebottom and Ziebell.

I would hope that if Hartlett slips to 10 we would snap him up, otherwise I would be happy to go with a tall. Craig has said again and again that he would like a 'natural' forward - ie someone who already plays the position successfully as opposed to Trengrove and Lisle who are backmen, plus McKernan an undersized ruckman all of whom would have to learn the position.

The only name above with some positive forward line history is Yarran - a small forward who has averaged approx 3 goals a game in the WAFL. I just wonder if they might go for him and try to grab talls with the next couple of picks? Heyne's name was mentioned in this thread and he too would fit the bill - but is he worth pick 10? He and Sam Blease could well be the other 'one or two'.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Players like Trengove and McKernan ALWAYS make me nervous. The number of underage, undesized ruckman who made it as KPP in the AFL is VERY VERY low.

If you pick one of those, especially in the first round, you are almost guaranteed to have a bust on your hands.

 

[Crow-mo]

Players like Trengove and McKernan ALWAYS make me nervous. The number of underage, undesized ruckman who made it as KPP in the AFL is VERY VERY low.

If you pick one of those, especially in the first round, you are almost guaranteed to have a bust on your hands.

you say low, I say virtually non-existant.

 

[Dujon11]

you say low, I say virtually non-existant.

Well we need to play the odds, we've had one key forward in 18 years. We're due.

 

[Crow-mo]

Well we need to play the odds, we've had one key forward in 18 years. We're due.

ha ha. good call

 

[cmndstab]

Well we need to play the odds, we've had one key forward in 18 years. We're due.

This is the same logic that has people put all their money on red because "it came up black the last six times"

 

[Elder van Berlo]

This is the same logic that has people put all their money on red because "it came up black the last six times"

Well then wouldn't putting your money on red be the smart thing to do? I mean, the chances of it being black 7 times in a row are like, 1 in... ermm... 128.

 

[cmndstab]

Well then wouldn't putting your money on red be the smart thing to do? I mean, the chances of it being black 7 times in a row are like, 1 in... ermm... 128.

Correct, the odds of getting seven blacks in a row are 1 in 128. However, once it's been black six times in a row already, the odds of it being black again are just 1 in 2. Roulette is a memoryless game, and just because it was black one turn, doesn't have a bearing on the outcome for the next turn.

If six turns ago you had placed a bet that it would be red some time in the next seven turns, then you would have a 127 in 128 chance of being correct. But not six turns in. The only thing you can say if it's been black six times in a row is that you missed out on an oppurtunity to make a bet on an event that only has a 1 in 64 chance of occurring

This of course carries over to recruiting, to a point. Just because we've had a bit of bad luck with first round draft picks doesn't mean we are "due" to get some luck. The difference of course is that unlike a ball bouncing around a wheel, we actually have the capacity to learn from our drafting mistakes and recognise the problem draftees in advance this time.

 

[Mismatched]

Correct, the odds of getting seven blacks in a row are 1 in 128. However, once it's been black six times in a row already, the odds of it being black again are just 1 in 2. Roulette is a memoryless game, and just because it was black one turn, doesn't have a bearing on the outcome for the next turn.

If six turns ago you had placed a bet that it would be red some time in the next seven turns, then you would have a 127 in 128 chance of being correct. But not six turns in. The only thing you can say if it's been black six times in a row is that you missed out on an oppurtunity to make a bet on an event that only has a 1 in 64 chance of occurring

This of course carries over to recruiting, to a point. Just because we've had a bit of bad luck with first round draft picks doesn't mean we are "due" to get some luck. The difference of course is that unlike a ball bouncing around a wheel, we actually have the capacity to learn from our drafting mistakes and recognise the problem draftees in advance this time.

You'd think so wouldn't you

 

[cmndstab]

You'd think so wouldn't you

There is no mathematics capable of dealing with human error