Instinctive and Predictable

[Enviable Tradition]

Ken Hinkley describing how our game style should be.

Music to my ears!

I am firmly of the belief that a lot of our skill and decision making errors over the years have come from trying to play game styles that were too clever by half.

The best sides are instinctive and
predictable. They don't beat you will inexpected tactics (most of the time). They do it because they are so well drilled at what they do that it is relentlessly effective.

They make good decisions because the decision is already made well before they get the pill.

They hit targets because they know where the target is going to be and the target has space because he (and his team mates) know where and when he needs to make space.

They kick well for goal because they create opportunities in good positions.

I can't wait for this season to start to see how much of this talk becomes action!

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[chiwigi]

Ken Hinkley describing how our game style should be.

Music to my ears!

I am firmly of the belief that a lot of our skill and decision making errors over the years have come from trying to play game styles that were too clever by half.

The best sides are instinctive and
predictable. They don't beat you will inexpected tactics (most of the time). They do it because they are so well drilled at what they do that it is relentlessly effective.

They make good decisions because the decision is already made well before they get the pill.

They hit targets because they know where the target is going to be and the target has space because he (and his team mates) know where and when he needs to make space.

They kick well for goal because they create opportunities in good positions.

I can't wait for this season to start to see how much of this talk becomes action!

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

Footy isn't a complicated sport, but some coaches seem to feel they need to justify their salary. Those who keep it simple tend to win.

 

[VineValerian]

Footy isn't a complicated sport, but some coaches seem to feel they need to justify their salary. Those who keep it simple tend to win.

Jack and Fos had predictable game plans and the players knew how to undertake them and they were succesful over a long period.
Just because our style changed very little didn't lend itself to those other sides dominating us with counter tactics.
Just know your game plan inside out (front to back is better though), and execute it expertly.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

12 months on are we going to try this again or are we just going to be unpredictable. From Hinkley's interview with Greg Denham in the Oz.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...318bb0551636a2c62283afe31adb99b3?from=htc_rss
“You’ll notice we are going quicker this season,” he said. “We’ll rewind the clock after concentrating more on composure last year. “It would be reasonable to suspect we would move the ball significantly quicker than we have in the last 18 months. On the weekend we took 80 marks and played on 40 per cent of the time. “We’re not the most skilful team so some of our challenges have been around trying to protect some of our skill issues versus attacking the game a little bit harder. It’s proven to us if we protect, we probably can’t score enough. If you can’t score enough in today’s game, I don’t think you can win. We have to score more. We can’t survive on our average last year.”
.....
“It’s a 100-point game again because the new rules by the AFL have opened up the game,” he said. Entering his seventh season as senior coach, Hinkley predicted Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall, and the resting ruckmen — Ryder and Lycett — would be used as key forwards in almost every game.
.....
Hinkley believes his team’s “unpredictability” this year will be a bonus after losing Chad Wingard to Hawthorn and Jared Polec and Jasper Pittard to North Melbourne. “What are the boys Rozee, Butters and Duursma going to do? What’s Burton going to do at Port Adelaide? What’s Lycett going to do? Is Paddy going to stay fit? “There’s some stuff around us at the moment that won’t be exposed as clear as you’d like until maybe six or seven rounds into the season. It’s exciting. Our rivals won’t know what to expect at the start.”........
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...318bb0551636a2c62283afe31adb99b3?from=htc_rss

 

[GremioPower]

12 months on are we going to try this again or are we just going to be unpredictable. From Hinkley's interview with Greg Denham in the Oz.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...318bb0551636a2c62283afe31adb99b3?from=htc_rss
“You’ll notice we are going quicker this season,” he said. “We’ll rewind the clock after concentrating more on composure last year. “It would be reasonable to suspect we would move the ball significantly quicker than we have in the last 18 months. On the weekend we took 80 marks and played on 40 per cent of the time. “We’re not the most skilful team so some of our challenges have been around trying to protect some of our skill issues versus attacking the game a little bit harder. It’s proven to us if we protect, we probably can’t score enough. If you can’t score enough in today’s game, I don’t think you can win. We have to score more. We can’t survive on our average last year.”
.....
“It’s a 100-point game again because the new rules by the AFL have opened up the game,” he said. Entering his seventh season as senior coach, Hinkley predicted Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall, and the resting ruckmen — Ryder and Lycett — would be used as key forwards in almost every game.
.....
Hinkley believes his team’s “unpredictability” this year will be a bonus after losing Chad Wingard to Hawthorn and Jared Polec and Jasper Pittard to North Melbourne. “What are the boys Rozee, Butters and Duursma going to do? What’s Burton going to do at Port Adelaide? What’s Lycett going to do? Is Paddy going to stay fit? “There’s some stuff around us at the moment that won’t be exposed as clear as you’d like until maybe six or seven rounds into the season. It’s exciting. Our rivals won’t know what to expect at the start.”........
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...318bb0551636a2c62283afe31adb99b3?from=htc_rss

I think our "unpredictability" this season will be by accident. He is expecting our gamestyle to become clear after seven rounds because that's when it will be clear for our players as well.

Last year, it took the whole season and beyond, though. I have no idea on why this season would be any different...

 

[The Rubber Man]

we've heard this talk before. Lets wait until we have seen a few rounds before getting excited/hopeful.

 

[PowerBaz]

12 months on are we going to try this again or are we just going to be unpredictable. From Hinkley's interview with Greg Denham in the Oz.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...318bb0551636a2c62283afe31adb99b3?from=htc_rss
“You’ll notice we are going quicker this season,” he said. “We’ll rewind the clock after concentrating more on composure last year. “It would be reasonable to suspect we would move the ball significantly quicker than we have in the last 18 months. On the weekend we took 80 marks and played on 40 per cent of the time. “We’re not the most skilful team so some of our challenges have been around trying to protect some of our skill issues versus attacking the game a little bit harder. It’s proven to us if we protect, we probably can’t score enough. If you can’t score enough in today’s game, I don’t think you can win. We have to score more. We can’t survive on our average last year.”
.....
“It’s a 100-point game again because the new rules by the AFL have opened up the game,” he said. Entering his seventh season as senior coach, Hinkley predicted Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall, and the resting ruckmen — Ryder and Lycett — would be used as key forwards in almost every game.
.....
Hinkley believes his team’s “unpredictability” this year will be a bonus after losing Chad Wingard to Hawthorn and Jared Polec and Jasper Pittard to North Melbourne. “What are the boys Rozee, Butters and Duursma going to do? What’s Burton going to do at Port Adelaide? What’s Lycett going to do? Is Paddy going to stay fit? “There’s some stuff around us at the moment that won’t be exposed as clear as you’d like until maybe six or seven rounds into the season. It’s exciting. Our rivals won’t know what to expect at the start.”........
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...318bb0551636a2c62283afe31adb99b3?from=htc_rss

There’s some stuff around us at the moment that won’t be exposed as clear as you’d like until maybe six or seven rounds into the season. It’s exciting. Our rivals won’t know what to expect at the start.”........

What do we need 6 or 7 weeks to see? Always seems like an experiment we never get right every year.

 

[Duck Farmer]

1“What are the boys Rozee, Butters and Duursma going to do? What’s Burton going to do at Port Adelaide? What’s Lycett going to do? Is Paddy going to stay fit? “There’s some stuff around us at the moment that won’t be exposed as clear as you’d like until maybe six or seven rounds into the season. It’s exciting. Our rivals won’t know what to expect at the start.”........

Because we have no idea about how this will pan out either?

 

[OneGreatClub]

12 months on are we going to try this again or are we just going to be unpredictable. From Hinkley's interview with Greg Denham in the Oz.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...318bb0551636a2c62283afe31adb99b3?from=htc_rss
“You’ll notice we are going quicker this season,” he said. “We’ll rewind the clock after concentrating more on composure last year. “It would be reasonable to suspect we would move the ball significantly quicker than we have in the last 18 months. On the weekend we took 80 marks and played on 40 per cent of the time. “We’re not the most skilful team so some of our challenges have been around trying to protect some of our skill issues versus attacking the game a little bit harder. It’s proven to us if we protect, we probably can’t score enough. If you can’t score enough in today’s game, I don’t think you can win. We have to score more. We can’t survive on our average last year.”
.....
“It’s a 100-point game again because the new rules by the AFL have opened up the game,” he said. Entering his seventh season as senior coach, Hinkley predicted Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall, and the resting ruckmen — Ryder and Lycett — would be used as key forwards in almost every game.
.....
Hinkley believes his team’s “unpredictability” this year will be a bonus after losing Chad Wingard to Hawthorn and Jared Polec and Jasper Pittard to North Melbourne. “What are the boys Rozee, Butters and Duursma going to do? What’s Burton going to do at Port Adelaide? What’s Lycett going to do? Is Paddy going to stay fit? “There’s some stuff around us at the moment that won’t be exposed as clear as you’d like until maybe six or seven rounds into the season. It’s exciting. Our rivals won’t know what to expect at the start.”........
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...318bb0551636a2c62283afe31adb99b3?from=htc_rss

Sadly, sometimes I think that Hinkley doesn’t even know what he means. No wonder the players seeem confused.

 

[RossFC]

On the weekend we took 80 marks and played on 40 per cent of the time.

I'd like to know what the percentage was in just the 1st and 4th quarters. It looked clear in the 2nd and 3rd quarters we were trying to manage the players and go back to the slow movement of last year.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

There’s some stuff around us at the moment that won’t be exposed as clear as you’d like until maybe six or seven rounds into the season. It’s exciting. Our rivals won’t know what to expect at the start.”........

What do we need 6 or 7 weeks to see? Always seems like an experiment we never get right every year.

Why? Remember Chris Judd's comments last year that 11 changes is too many and the players wont gell and we wouldn't make the finals?

That didn't look too clever when we were 11-4 despite limping to victory in the last 2 weeks of those 15 games against a couple of cellar dwellers, but when the heat came on against some of the big boys, West Coast, Collingwood, GWS as well as the middle class sides we capitulated and we weren't jelling.

We have made another 11 changes this year. 2 of them replacing Barry and Thomas who were only around for 12 months.

So since we lost that bloody final to WCE in 2017, we have kept 26 players and moved on 19. Those 19 have been replaced by 11 in 2018, Barry and Thomas only lasted a year, and another 11 in 2019 which takes our squad from 45 to 46 as we have gone from one Cat B rookie Irra, to two, Pudney and Fredrick.

I expect 6 of the new 11 to play a lot in the first 6 or 7 weeks if they don't get injured - Lycett, Burton, Mayes, Rozee, Butters and Duursma. So that means there will be a fair bit of new learnings around those players in those 6 to 7 weeks.

I ****ing hope Judd is wrong in 2019, and that some of those 9 left of the 2018 new 11, ie Watts, Rockliff, Motlop in particular but even Farrell, Patmore, Garner if they get games and even Trengove have better years and dont need more learnings.

Plus Montgomery, Schofield and Brogan coming in will probably take a bit of time to find their groove in the coaching box, game day mix.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Players cut since September 2017

100+ AFL career games
Monfries, Trengove, White, Wingard, Polec, Pittard [Thomas 1 year in then out]

50-99
Neade, Young, Toumpas, Lobbe, Impey, Hombsch

Others
Austin, Eddy, Snelling, Palmer, Ah Chee, Krakouer, Irra [Barry 1 year in then out]

Replaced by

100+
Watts, Rockliff, Motlop, Mckenzie, Mayes

50-99
Trengove, Lycett, Burton

Others
Hayes, Farrell, Patmore, Garner, Rozee, Butters, Duursma, Grundy, Woodcock, Cox, Pudney, Fredrick

Its why we will be unpredictable, as we have a lot of U/21 kids.

Its also why IMO, a fully fit and firing Broadbent and Hartlett, are in our best 22 and take up spots in the back lines, to sure them up.

 

[Forzaport]

Why? Remember Chris Judd's comments last year that 11 changes is too many and the players wont jell and we wouldn't make the finals?

That didn't look too clever when we were 11-4 despite limping to victory in the last 2 weeks of those 15 games against a couple of cellar dwellers, but when the heat came on against some of the big boys, West Coast, Collingwood, GWS as well as the middle class sides we capitulated and we weren't jelling.

I'd say Judd was right in outcome but wrong in reasoning. The coaching had a much bigger impact than the team gelling imo. An argument could be made for the players not being good enough, which was in part due to unfortunate long term injuries but that again goes back to coaching.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I'd say Judd was right in outcome but wrong in reasoning. The coaching had a much bigger impact than the team gelling imo. An argument could be made for the players not being good enough, which was in part due to unfortunate long term injuries but that again goes back to coaching.

We had Hartlett as a LTI, Broady never got over his 2017 ankle issue, Marshall got injured and family tragedy but it was going to be his first full year and Paddy missed 6 games, only played half Freo rd 2 game and limped a lot in a couple of others, the rest didnt have LTI's. Collingwood had no trouble replacing LTI's.

I agree its several things together, but Judd is right that 11 changes to your list makes you vulnerable, unless you miraculously recruit 11 A grade 100 gamers, because injury happen every year and your depth will be tested and if these players don't know your system and/or are inexperienced it becomes a real challenge.

 

[Janus]

The 11 changes last year involved 5 changes to our best 22 from 2017:

Motlop
Watts
Marshall
Rockliff
Howard

That’s why it was more disruptive. This year, there’s two, possibly three from our 2018 best 22:

Lycett
Burton
Lienert

Broadbent and Hartlett already know the system. Lycett is a ruck who played in the West Coast system that is easily adaptable to what we are trying to do - he’s not going to be a problem. Lienert has been with us for a couple of years now so he will know what to do.

Most of our changes this year occurred in the attacking half of the ground, where it’s less about system and more about instinct anyways. And if we’re so desperate that we need to play guys like Cox, Pudney, Fredrick and Woodcock for more than a couple of games, no amount of gelling is going to help.

But I’ll take your 2019 premiership contender prediction off your hands if you don’t think you’ll need it anymore RussellEbertHandball

 

[Enviable Tradition]

It's pretty interesting to look back at this post 12 months on especially as we are now talking about "playing what's in front of you"

I worry that we are going to go back to be turnover merchants.

The key to avoiding that is having a predictable structure up field.

It is one thing to say play what is in front of you it is another to ensure that you have good, predictable options to choose from.

If we get the latter right we might go places. If not we will be in for a sometimes exciting but mostly frustrating year.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

But I’ll take your 2019 premiership contender prediction off your hands if you don’t think you’ll need it anymore RussellEbertHandball

When I made it in July 2016, I said we had to get battle hardened to win a flag in 2019. I didn't expect some of those 100 gamers (and Hombsch) to be part of the 19 we would cut before 2019. The guys cut at the end of 2016; Butcher, Carlile, Schulz, O'Shea, Stewart, Mitchell I didn't expect to be there in 2019.

To counter balance that we have picked up SPP, Marshall, and Lycett. At this stage I think we are still a 10-14 wins side, I need to see that we have indeed learned, become battle hardened and understand how to win the tight ones, but Marshall and Lycett give me great hope. And I ****en hope we have learnt that if one of Ryder or Lycett go down we just play Frampton and no more bullshit using the differential parts to fix the carburetor. I wish Hayes didnt do his ACL as he would have been a better #3. I like the look of our top 3 2018 draft kids.

Motlop, Rockliff and Watts have to perform this year. Not the bullshit where Watts didnt poll a coaches vote in 10 of 19 games, Motlop 10 of 21 games and Rockliff 4 of 18 games, but in 9 games he averaged 1 vote or less from the 5 coaches. I dont have huge expectations on Burton. If Broadbent and Hartlett play he is going to struggle for game time and will have to play a new position for him.


But Western Bulldogs, Richmond West Coast and Collingwood, have proved you can make a quantum leap, if you get it right game style wise, and your replacement players when you have injuries, step up to the level needed.

The bottom 6 players in the 22 each week will define how far we go. If we are playing Sam Gray regularly, we wont make that quantum leap.

 

[TeeKray]

we've heard this talk before. Lets wait until we have seen a few rounds before getting excited/hopeful.

I believe it this time. Hinkley knows he won't survive another season of that boring, dreary rubbish. And he also knows that we've got less quality on our list this year - so if that game style got us 10th last year, it's probably going to see us slide down even further this year.

The question I would love to ask Ken is - when exactly did you realise that the game plan was too defensive? And if that was in season, why the hell didn't we change it up whilst we still had a chance?

 

[Janus]

When I made it in July 2016, I said we had to get battle hardened to win a flag in 2019. I didn't expect some of those 100 gamers (and Hombsch) to be part of the 19 we would cut before 2019. The guys cut at the end of 2016; Butcher, Carlile, Schulz, O'Shea, Stewart, Mitchell I didn't expect to be there in 2019.

To counter balance that we have picked up SPP, Marshall, and Lycett. At this stage I think we are still a 10-14 wins side, I need to see that we have indeed learned, become battle hardened and understand how to win the tight ones, but Marshall and Lycett give me great hope. And I ****en hope we have learnt that if one of Ryder or Lycett go down we just play Frampton and no more bullshit using the differential parts to fix the carburetor. I wish Hayes didnt do his ACL as he would have been a better #3. I like the look of our top 3 2018 draft kids.

Motlop, Rockliff and Watts have to perform this year. Not the bullshit where Watts didnt poll a coaches vote in 10 of 19 games, Motlop 10 of 21 games and Rockliff 4 of 18 games, but in 9 games he averaged 1 vote or less from the 5 coaches. I dont have huge expectations on Burton. If Broadbent and Hartlett play he is going to struggle for game time and will have to play a new position for him.


But Western Bulldogs, Richmond West Coast and Collingwood, have proved you can make a quantum leap, if you get it right game style wise, and your replacement players when you have injuries, step up to the level needed.

The bottom 6 players in the 22 each week will define how far we go. If we are playing Sam Gray regularly, we wont make that quantum leap.

There’s something else we didn’t factor in - or at least I didn’t - and that was the addition of Gold Coast and GWS, which had significantly weakened the strength of what should have been a premiership caliber list.

Not the top picks, but the second and third round quality players that underpin any successful premiership assault.

That’s why when 2017 rolled around and we got flogged by Adelaide in the last Showdown, the decision was made that the list wasn’t good enough to win a flag the next year and instead of adding Watts, Motlop and Rockliff to simply replace Trengove, White and Monfries, we cut deeper and brought in guys like McKenzie and Trengove - guys that would stick around and not complain if they didn’t get a call up to the senior side, but had the attitude necessary to help our kids develop.

I reckon I’d play Burton ahead of Clurey. Clurey is Jonas’ replacement in my eyes - he should get a three year deal this year under that proviso...that he learns to be a great one on one defender.

Burton would be great as that Lever/Doedee type defender that intercepts and takes off. Lienert the same. That’s why I’m playing both of them and dropping Clurey and Byrne-Jones. But then I’m more reckless than Ken is.

I don’t think battle hardness is what we’ve been lacking. We’ve always played our best when we felt like we had something to prove and had the chip on our shoulder. The past few years we haven’t had that - there’s been a lack of energy in our play that has been palpable.

I wanna see some spark. The sort of spark the Dogs had in 2016, Richmond had in 2017 and Collingwood had in 2018.

 

[Duck Farmer]

At this stage I think we are still a 10-14 wins side ...

Reach for the stars, REH. Reach for the stars!

 

[G3TWOTYAD3S3RV]

There’s something else we didn’t factor in - or at least I didn’t - and that was the addition of Gold Coast and GWS, which had significantly weakened the strength of what should have been a premiership caliber list.

Not the top picks, but the second and third round quality players that underpin any successful premiership assault.

That’s why when 2017 rolled around and we got flogged by Adelaide in the last Showdown, the decision was made that the list wasn’t good enough to win a flag the next year and instead of adding Watts, Motlop and Rockliff to simply replace Trengove, White and Monfries, we cut deeper and brought in guys like McKenzie and Trengove - guys that would stick around and not complain if they didn’t get a call up to the senior side, but had the attitude necessary to help our kids develop.

I reckon I’d play Burton ahead of Clurey. Clurey is Jonas’ replacement in my eyes - he should get a three year deal this year under that proviso...that he learns to be a great one on one defender.

Burton would be great as that Lever/Doedee type defender that intercepts and takes off. Lienert the same. That’s why I’m playing both of them and dropping Clurey and Byrne-Jones. But then I’m more reckless than Ken is.

I don’t think battle hardness is what we’ve been lacking. We’ve always played our best when we felt like we had something to prove and had the chip on our shoulder. The past few years we haven’t had that - there’s been a lack of energy in our play that has been palpable.

I wanna see some spark. The sort of spark the Dogs had in 2016, Richmond had in 2017 and Collingwood had in 2018.

So on let’s say Adelaide you’d have Burton on Tex or Jenkins ?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Janus]

So on let’s say Adelaide you’d have Burton on Tex or Jenkins ?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

It would be a group effort. Though Adelaide might be one of the few teams I’d play two lock down defenders and bring in Clurey.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

There’s something else we didn’t factor in - or at least I didn’t - and that was the addition of Gold Coast and GWS, which had significantly weakened the strength of what should have been a premiership caliber list.

Not the top picks, but the second and third round quality players that underpin any successful premiership assault.

That’s why when 2017 rolled around and we got flogged by Adelaide in the last Showdown, the decision was made that the list wasn’t good enough to win a flag the next year and instead of adding Watts, Motlop and Rockliff to simply replace Trengove, White and Monfries, we cut deeper and brought in guys like McKenzie and Trengove - guys that would stick around and not complain if they didn’t get a call up to the senior side, but had the attitude necessary to help our kids develop.

I reckon I’d play Burton ahead of Clurey. Clurey is Jonas’ replacement in my eyes - he should get a three year deal this year under that proviso...that he learns to be a great one on one defender.

Burton would be great as that Lever/Doedee type defender that intercepts and takes off. Lienert the same. That’s why I’m playing both of them and dropping Clurey and Byrne-Jones. But then I’m more reckless than Ken is.

I don’t think battle hardness is what we’ve been lacking. We’ve always played our best when we felt like we had something to prove and had the chip on our shoulder. The past few years we haven’t had that - there’s been a lack of energy in our play that has been palpable.

I wanna see some spark. The sort of spark the Dogs had in 2016, Richmond had in 2017 and Collingwood had in 2018.

By battle hardened, I mean both physically, but more importantly mentally. Ie we know when to go fast and when to hold onto the ball and not just kick it away like Wingard did against WCE in the EF and Motlop against WCE Rd 21 last year. Basically develop footy IQ and process things properly when under pressure.

 

[Burton89onegoal]

So on let’s say Adelaide you’d have Burton on Tex or Jenkins ?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Ive read from Hawthorn supporters that he has been matched up against Walker in the past, and did very well.

 

[Amarula]

We need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each player and play accordingly. Sounds like Schoey & Monty are doing this already.
For example, how many of our f50 entries last year were banged in by mids like Ollie, Boak, SPP, and yes, Wingard Polec and so forth?
We recruited 2 of the best f50 entry merchants in the comp but played them in largely defensive roles. We’ve now recruited another 4-5 players with good to excellent disposal skills, including the kids. But if our main in-and-under first-hands-on-the-ball mids just keep banging it forward to Charlie, we’re going nowhere.
As for most sides, a lot of where we go this year depends on how our midfield can work together as a “team-within-a-team”.
It’s no good having the best midfielders in the comp if they don’t work together. But if your midfield has the best teamwork and understanding in the comp, they don’t have to be the best midfielders of all time.
We don’t have the best midfielders in the comp. But there’s no reason we can’t have the best midfield in the comp.