Is the gap too big?

[Glenno23]

Watching the Saints game tonight has left me wondering where our season is really at.

As supporters we were full of hope. We saw the draw, and thought "we should be 7 and 1 with a start like that" The club even came out and talked up our chances (which never happens)

We had a few boys missing PS (VB, Porps etc) but nothing too major. MMC round 1, we get thrashed in an embarrasing way against Port, looking like the Port of 2009 and Port looking like a premiership favourite. Our PS continues losing a water polo match to the Pies and scraping wins against Melbourne and Carlton.

Round 1 comes up and we get smashed by an inexperienced Freo side. Admittedly we don't play Subi well ever, but we were bad. Then we lose round 2 to a team who hasn't beaten us since 2004, and not since 2001 on our own paddock. But its not just the losses that hurt, its the manner in which we lost.

As seen in Bick's thread our "important" stats are woeful. We are pretty much dead last in most KPI categories such as hard ball gets, clearances and tackles. We look like boys against men. This is not something usually associated with our boys.

I don't see us flicking a switch like we did last year. And even then we couldn't compete with the top 4. But my question is, are we too far behind the Saints, Cats, Doggies and to a lesser extent the Hawks. These teams look hard and ferocious. We look and are playing very soft. I cannot see any feasible way of us beating them to win a flag or to even finish top 4 in 2010.

Where do we go from here? Can we close the gap? What can we do differently next pre season if we can't close the gap this year?

We must find answers, otherwise i feel NC may be out of a job once his contract expires (if we don't make a GF in the next 2 years)

 

[jenny61_99]

What a brilliant and thought provoking post! It's so much easier as a supporter to look at our season in isolation rather than compare ourselves to the "big boys". Easy first half draw, promising youngsters, seniors that look like they could still contribute. By doing this we insulate ourselves against the cold, hard facts. We had all talked our hopes and expectations up this year, but already, at this very early point of the season, feel that it could perhaps get away from us. But there is always hope. Isn't there?

I'm afraid your post has all but eliminated that hope. The reality is, we don't look anywhere near ready to take the "big boys" on at their own game. I wonder why we thought that we would though? Clearly we were short of the mark last year - did we think we'd improve that much over the pre-season, or perhaps that they'd all take a step backwards?

Every supporter base is full of hope in their pre-season. "Maybe this will be our year" we all think. 16 teams. Only one winner. The odds are already stacked against us, yet still we hope. And seriously, if we didn't have that hope, why bother supporting a team in the first place? So off with your logical, reality based comments! Let us continue to dream the dream!

PS. I think Craig will walk if he doesn't deliver.

 

[-CG-]

I'm afraid your post has all but eliminated that hope. The reality is, we don't look anywhere near ready to take the "big boys" on at their own game. I wonder why we thought that we would though? Clearly we were short of the mark last year - did we think we'd improve that much over the pre-season, or perhaps that they'd all take a step backwards?

This is what really gets me because we should be ready to take them on. I don't think we were that far off Geelong. We almost beat them at Skilled Stadium, admittedly they were missing a few of their stars but, we got so close at a ground where we usually stink.

We had smashed Carlton, Essendon, West Coast, Fremantle and Port. And when I say smash I mean really comprehensively beat!

We missed out on a preliminary final by four points, or whatever it was, and we were better than Collingwood last year. We should have won. As a result we were heartbroken, shattered, devastated, you name it. The club, the players, the supporters, we were all aching. We heard things such as how the club never wants to be in this position again, we never want to feel like that again etc, so most people were expecting only improvement to come in the pre season.

But we haven't seen an ounce of it. We've been terrible. So terrible we're all shaking in our boots about playing Melbourne when we shouldn't have to.

I wish I knew why we were so bad. I really can't understand how or why we have gone so far backwards.

It should be our year or close to it. As Glenno pointed out even the club said they had high expectations for this year.

Thankfully it's only round 3.

 

[MelbourneCrow]

My uneducated view looking at the 2 games this season is that we have a lot of players who are just content with being AFL players. Look at the Saints, I thought they might tail off this year - they have the emotional baggage of a lost GF to carry, they lost a top player in the off season, they wasted their 1st round draft pick, they were without Kosi, they lost Riewoldt during the game, yet they still beat a Top 4 side last night by quite a bit in the end. All these blokes who we don't really notice and have a low profile are going at it full throttle all game, while the players we love seem to be picking and choosing the moments when they really apply themselves to the task.

I'm going to the game tomorow and we will get beat if our players take the same attitude again. I'm tipping we pick up and outclass them, but I'll still be grumbling about the 2 wasted games.

By way of a disclaimer, I do believe we have a lot of players getting up to speed after interupted pre-seasons, so I hope they click into gear soon.

 

[pjcrows]

Anyone who thought that we would improve but St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Brisbane wouldn't were kidding themselves. And Geelong won't "improve" - pretty hard to improve on 60 wins out of 70 games - but will still be Top 4 come the end of the season. I had us 5th/6th, still think we're a chance of that.

So to sum it up, the gap is too big this year, yes. But that's nothing new. We were never going to, and won't, win a Premiership in 2010.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I think sometimes big matches between two Victorian clubs can create the illusion of being played at higher level than they actually are.

Take last night. The full-house crowd are obviously highly involved and the atmosphere is fantastic. The commentators beat off over their faves like Roo and Neon and ramp up the excitment levels as though this game is the greatest that has ever been played and every slightly courageous act the actions of a hero.

It feels as though we're seeing football in a different stratosphere to the Sunday afternoon Syd-Crows game at AAMI, where there is a small crowd, no Swans fans and less interested/excitable commentators.

 

[pjcrows]

Carl - the way we're playing, we would be obliterated by 10+ goals by any of the top five or six at the moment. Last night wasn't a spectacle, but the pressure around the footy was intense.

 

[Bicks]

Anyone who thought that we would improve but St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Brisbane wouldn't were kidding themselves. And Geelong won't "improve" - pretty hard to improve on 60 wins out of 70 games - but will still be Top 4 come the end of the season. I had us 5th/6th, still think we're a chance of that.

So to sum it up, the gap is too big this year, yes. But that's nothing new. We were never going to, and won't, win a Premiership in 2010.

At this early stage it appears your a far better judge than Neil Craig who for the first time in his tenure as coach of the AFC pencilled us in as "genuine" contenders for the 2010 Premiership...

For the record I'm with you, I believe a top 4 finish will be near impossible, and at this stage I've definately lowered my expectations for 2010 significantly. Unless we soon make massive improvements in so many key areas we may even struggle to play finals this year.

 

[crowsarethebest]

Carl - the way we're playing, we would be obliterated by 10+ goals by any of the top five or six at the moment. Last night wasn't a spectacle, but the pressure around the footy was intense.

Yep. We would've got spanked 10 goals + if we played the Saints or Collingwood last night. Pressure was amazing and tackles stuck. The work rate of both sides was amazing, especially St Kilda- doing all the 1 %'ers and gang tackling all the time around contests.

 

[kickavic]

i know things look bad, but werent we 1 and 4 after rd 5 in 97 or 98? i cant remember

 

[Hodgy]

Yep. We would've got spanked 10 goals + if we played the Saints or Collingwood last night. Pressure was amazing and tackles stuck. The work rate of both sides was amazing, especially St Kilda- doing all the 1 %'ers and gang tackling all the time around contests.

Thats true but this same Collingwood side nearly lost to Melbourne last week, players are human so lift in intensity for big games with big crowds. I feel everyone is being to negative here. Sure we lost two games we should have won but the game before that, The Semi versus Collingwood, we played some of the best footy you would ever see in the first half. We are obviously capable of repeating that as we haven't lost any players except to injury. There is no doubt that we have had a terrible preseason with injuries and as a consequence we are like a swimmer in heavy training a month before the olympics, we look heavy and slow but this will change as the benefits of a heavy workload kick in. I think we just need to get game time into players like Knights and Porps and start to get a settled side and a win tomorrow will do wonders for confidence. The possible benefit of this is we could be flying at the end of the year while other sides are tired. We have all seen this with our side before when we struggled at the end of years so lets stay positive for a bit more than 2 weeks before we start throwing away the season.

 

[Coopers]

i know things look bad, but werent we 1 and 4 after rd 5 in 97 or 98? i cant remember

That's right, it's too early for this BS.

Lets see where we are in round 8 or so.

 

[kulak]

i know things look bad, but werent we 1 and 4 after rd 5 in 97 or 98? i cant remember

1-3 both years.

1997:
R1 - def Brisbane 132-96
R2 - lost to Richmond 128-100 (28 points)
R3 - lost to Carlton 108-80 (28 points)
R4 - lost to Port 83-72 (11 points)

Avg losing margin 22 points.

1998:
R1 - lost to Carlton 73-63 (10 points)
R2 - def Fremantle 167-74
R3 - lost to St Kilda 82-60 (22 points)
R4 - lost to Port 73-64 (9 points)

Avg losing margin 14 points.

2010:
R1 - lost to Fremantle 118-62 (56 points)
R2 - lost to Sydney 118-75 (43 points)

Avg losing margin 50 points.

In summary, it's not the fact we lost, it's the manner in which we lost, which looks like a bad sign for the rest of the year.

Reminds me a bit of Port getting crushed by Essendon in 2000. After making finals in 1999 it was all optimism with a talented young team, but with that early defeat and a couple of others they only won 1 out of their first 12. On the plus side they recovered to 16 wins in 2001.

Anyway the point is that while one or two close defeats (such as us in 97-98) doesn't mean a huge amount in the scheme of things, one or two crushing defeats early can just about break a team's spirit, especially one which relies on quite a few young players.

I'm still hopeful we can make a run for somewhere 5-9, which is probably about where we should be.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Yep. We would've got spanked 10 goals + if we played the Saints or Collingwood last night. Pressure was amazing and tackles stuck. The work rate of both sides was amazing, especially St Kilda- doing all the 1 %'ers and gang tackling all the time around contests.

Sometimes that sort of stuff is catching. Maybe we haven't played good enough teams yet?

The Swans got to play St Kilda first up, they were acclimatised.

 

[PCORF]

A win this weekend may get our confidence back and to win we have to play much harder. But if we don't win this weekend well I'm not sure what to say. We've had plenty of chances over the last 8 or 9 years but we've lost many awful games, the worst losses were Round 7 2003 vs Collingwood, Round 16 2003 vs Fremantle, the last 3 rounds of 2003 which we blew the top 4 spot, 2005 qualifying vs St Kilda, 2006 preliminary vs West Coast, a few losses in 2007 including elim vs Hawthorn, 2009 semi vs Collingwood. This team needs to start believing in itself before its too late.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

yes we have some catching to do however it is still far to early to push the panic putton

I agree lets wait and see where we are at after about round 8

 

[BACCS]

I disagree strongly with the calls that we would've got spanked by 10+goals last night. To me, it was an extremely negative and defensive game, which Adelaide thrive in usually. I am not sure we would have beaten the Saints, but am confident that we could have knocked off the Pies. I still have us making the 4, and I'm not too fussed about our two first up perfomances as we are only getting the important core group of players back now.

 

[Thylacinus]

Please put me squarely with those who say it is too early to panic. We are slowly getting our quality players back. They are slowly gaining form and fitness. I was not overly optimistic against Freo and Sydney...that same cautiousness and reality makes me say 'be slow to write the Crow's off'. For goodness sake we are only round two. Some supporters here need to be less reactive and more rational, both in the short term and long term!

 

[amer]

Hahaha...you guys.

The gap in form is large at present. But the gap between sides themselves? Small. No doubt the opposition is strong, but no side is without deficiency. Collingwood lacks cream in the key position department up forward. St Kilda's forward line minus Riewoldt? That'll be interesting.

It's ironic that supporters would overrate us over the course of 07/08, when we were plugging holes left, right and centre, but now that we pack genuine talent we're no chance? You watch, we'll get our form together, and come the mid-season break everyone will be on the wagon, 97/98 flukes being referenced ad nauseum.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Last nights game really was a beauty. It was a tough, aggressive game. I know my fellow Crows supporters and the club don't really like aggressive players but I would love to see a few Adelaide players play "unsociable" football for a change.

 

[Crow-mo]

What a brilliant and thought provoking post! It's so much easier as a supporter to look at our season in isolation rather than compare ourselves to the "big boys". Easy first half draw, promising youngsters, seniors that look like they could still contribute. By doing this we insulate ourselves against the cold, hard facts. We had all talked our hopes and expectations up this year, but already, at this very early point of the season, feel that it could perhaps get away from us. But there is always hope. Isn't there?

I'm afraid your post has all but eliminated that hope. The reality is, we don't look anywhere near ready to take the "big boys" on at their own game. I wonder why we thought that we would though? Clearly we were short of the mark last year - did we think we'd improve that much over the pre-season, or perhaps that they'd all take a step backwards?

Every supporter base is full of hope in their pre-season. "Maybe this will be our year" we all think. 16 teams. Only one winner. The odds are already stacked against us, yet still we hope. And seriously, if we didn't have that hope, why bother supporting a team in the first place? So off with your logical, reality based comments! Let us continue to dream the dream!

to be fair Jenny, many people did wonder about this. where the improvement was coming from? relative to our competitors we stood still, so some were concerned how realistic it really was to expect to overtake everyone coming down the home strait.

PS. I think Craig will walk if he doesn't deliver.

I think you're right. In my opinion, I think he is under a little more heat inside the club that we might think too. not a lot probably, but some. I have always wondered if his statements about making the top 4, were driven (in part) by views within the board room that enough was enough, no more process and journey talk.

I can easily see him walking if he feels he is losing support.

 

[Crow-mo]

At this early stage it appears your a far better judge than Neil Craig who for the first time in his tenure as coach of the AFC pencilled us in as "genuine" contenders for the 2010 Premiership...

why assume that someone's, (anyone's) public statements reflect their truest beliefs?

NC has actually been at the club a very long time, and football clubs are political beasts so its unrealistic to think everyone is always in happy agreement. I just wonder if the cynics are starting to win more control in the metaphorical backrooms of influence, and this is manifesting itself into more pressure on NC to deliver.

rightly so, I might add.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

why assume that someone's, (anyone's) public statements reflect their truest beliefs?

NC has actually been at the club a very long time, and football clubs are political beasts so its unrealistic to think everyone is always in happy agreement. I just wonder if the cynics are starting to win more control in the metaphorical backrooms of influence, and this is manifesting itself into more pressure on NC to deliver.

rightly so, I might add.

So you think after 5 years of largely average finals performances the gold ticket is starting to fade.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

What a brilliant and thought provoking post! It's so much easier as a supporter to look at our season in isolation rather than compare ourselves to the "big boys". Easy first half draw, promising youngsters, seniors that look like they could still contribute. By doing this we insulate ourselves against the cold, hard facts. We had all talked our hopes and expectations up this year, but already, at this very early point of the season, feel that it could perhaps get away from us. But there is always hope. Isn't there?

I'm afraid your post has all but eliminated that hope. The reality is, we don't look anywhere near ready to take the "big boys" on at their own game. I wonder why we thought that we would though? Clearly we were short of the mark last year - did we think we'd improve that much over the pre-season, or perhaps that they'd all take a step backwards?

Every supporter base is full of hope in their pre-season. "Maybe this will be our year" we all think. 16 teams. Only one winner. The odds are already stacked against us, yet still we hope. And seriously, if we didn't have that hope, why bother supporting a team in the first place? So off with your logical, reality based comments! Let us continue to dream the dream!

PS. I think Craig will walk if he doesn't deliver.

Good post Jen. The thing that concerns me is all and sundry, including the coach, said we were going to be a genuine flag chance this year but no one said how we were going to get better.

 

[jenny61_99]

Good post Jen. The thing that concerns me is all and sundry, including the coach, said we were going to be a genuine flag chance this year but no one said how we were going to get better.

I really was - and probably still am to a certain extent - a believer too! Like I said in my post: easy first half draw, promising youngsters in Tippett, Walker, Dangerfield, Vince, Mackay; seniors that look like they could still contribute. I thought Geelong might drop back to the field given their personnel loss and perhaps a lack of drive seeing as they've won 2 premierships in 3 years. St Kilda are a funny team... full of potential, but never quite delivering. Thought that might continue (no logic, just a "feeling"). I saw Collingwood as improvers with some clever trading (that elusive ruckman for example); the Bulldogs would have one final tilt after grabbing BBBBazza and Brisbane would either give it a real crack with their bizarre mature aged trading antics pre-season, or fall in a hole. (Looks like the former at this stage, but it's only round 3!).

We lost early games last year, but I could see what Craig was trying to achieve. In fact, I was one of the few that insisted that our main problem was that our players just weren't executing the plan well. When we seemingly changed tack after 8 or so rounds, and looked invincible, the media were all over "Craig's new game plan" when the fact was, it wasn't new, it was finally being executed well.

This year, there's no clear evidence that we are in the same boat as last year. In fact, quite the contrary, we've been flogged and shown absolutely nothing! So it's very hard to get enthusiastic. Like I said though, you hold on to the fact that we've had a horror pre-season injury run and that we are playing severely under-done players - and hope that the season will turn around just as quickly as it looked like disappearing.