It Is Now Or Never

[_RT_]

Reading yesterdays papers online and I came across these 2 little facts.

1. Only 5 teams since 1994 have lost their first 3 games and gone on to make the 8.
2. No team has ever made the finals after losing its first 4 since the top 8 came into effect.

Basically it means we have to beat the Dogs this week if we want to be any real hope of making the finals this year. We don't need another honourable near enough is good enough effort, we need to come out this week and register our first win for the season and need to do so in the most positive fashin possible. No just falling in by the skin of our teeth, we need to come out and give the Bulldogs a nice little touch up to help restore the % we lost when performing so ineptly against the Blues.

 

[coke_zero]

i dont think we will get to 0-4 but in the end none of those stats matter because it is in the past.

 

[PHX]

If we come across either of those, then it's time to change history.

 

[Barnzy]

Some people underestimated the Carlton game saying it's just round 1 but with Geelong and Bulldogs to follow it was always going to be a tough first few rounds. I've watched all Dogs games including the Nab Cup game and I can safely say if it's dry they will play better than what the Cats dished up last weekend. They have a full list to choose from with potentially Welsh and Murphy to come in, two big goal kickers for them. They also have a lot of little forwards that can chop us to bits. Aker, Gia, Murphy, Johnson, Hill, etc. Also Griffen has taken his game to another level running off halfback with Gilbee and could hurt us on the rebound as we play our zone shit wish leaves players in 50m of space as you saw last week.

If we don't turn up to play we could get carved up, worried for the boys. Whatever confidence that would be left from a decent showing vs Geelong would be sapped, potentially leaving Melbourne to have a real crack at us.

 

[emperor]

Stat or no stats, we'd wanna start winning games of footy pronto

 

[peejay]

Some people underestimated the Carlton game saying it's just round 1 but with Geelong and Bulldogs to follow it was always going to be a tough first few rounds. I've watched all Dogs games including the Nab Cup game and I can safely say if it's dry they will play better than what the Cats dished up last weekend. .

Not only will it be dry - it will be cosy and undercover as well.

 

[JSFish]

Shit RT, you're one person I wouldn't expect to make a thread like this. Losing this weekend doesn't rule out making the finals at all. Who said we can't be the 6th team to do it should we lose? And, to be fair, we're quite possibly playing 3 of the teams that will make up the top 4 come season's end to start with. The draw gets nicer as we go.

Agreed that it's a very important game and a win would be fantastic, but **** me, there's 19 rounds to go after it.

 

[nut]

Reading yesterdays papers online and I came across these 2 little facts.

1. Only 5 teams since 1994 have lost their first 3 games and gone on to make the 8.
2. No team has ever made the finals after losing its first 4 since the top 8 came into effect.

Basically it means we have to beat the Dogs this week if we want to be any real hope of making the finals this year. We don't need another honourable near enough is good enough effort, we need to come out this week and register our first win for the season and need to do so in the most positive fashin possible. No just falling in by the skin of our teeth, we need to come out and give the Bulldogs a nice little touch up to help restore the % we lost when performing so ineptly against the Blues.

so 5 out of 14, Hardly bad odds. The 0-4 odds now we dont want to go there.

 

[PHX]

so 5 out of 14, Hardly bad odds. The 0-4 odds now we dont want to go there.

Not necessarily nut as there is unlikely to be only 1 team left on 0-3 after 3 rounds.

More like 5 of 45-ish teams to be 0-3 would be the record.

 

[DoItForCaptBlood]

so 5 out of 14, Hardly bad odds. The 0-4 odds now we dont want to go there.

PHX...I was thinking the same way as this...5 times out of 14 (years),
'A' team has made the finals from that position. Or to make it look better,
'just under half' the time

 

[Ah Cheung]

Just means we gotta create a new record...The draw is a little easier after Rd 3

 

[a_fighting_fury]

Reading yesterdays papers online and I came across these 2 little facts.

1. Only 5 teams since 1994 have lost their first 3 games and gone on to make the 8.
2. No team has ever made the finals after losing its first 4 since the top 8 came into effect.
quote]

Basically these stats mean squat without the accompanying fixture of the time.
For example, if Melbourne's 2009 fixture required them to play 5 of the top-8 teams in the opening rounds, then this stat would apply.

If Hawthorn on the other hand loose next weeks game, then this 'stat' would mean jack shit as it also fails to account for injuries, form, and for teams peaking at the right time.

Anyway, we should be playing our best regardless of statistics.

 

[one eyedtiger]

Its an important game. Imo its almost a must win. Considering how we played against the Cats I'm expecting a win this weekend. If we lose the pressure on Wallace will be huge and we will have to beat the Dees and North to have any chance. We don't have the greatest record against North. We could be 1-4 or we could just easily be 3-2.

 

[_RT_]

Shit RT, you're one person I wouldn't expect to make a thread like this. Losing this weekend doesn't rule out making the finals at all. Who said we can't be the 6th team to do it should we lose? And, to be fair, we're quite possibly playing 3 of the teams that will make up the top 4 come season's end to start with. The draw gets nicer as we go.

Agreed that it's a very important game and a win would be fantastic, but **** me, there's 19 rounds to go after it.

Looking at the draw Fish, we have only 1 game in the next 4 weeks that I'm confident in winning and thats the Dees in round 4. However, if we were to knock off the Dogs this week and then the Dees I would be feeling more confident heading into games against the Roos and Swans in rounds 5-6. Thats why I'm saying that its a case of now or never heading into this week.

 

[folester41]

im looking at it like this, if we lost to carlton in a tight fought match where we put in a really good performance but were marginally outplayed, and then we went to geelong and lost in another close encounter we would still be on the same points as now, minus all the criticism from the media.

yes we could have won round 1 if we played our best, but if we lost that game it was not the end of the world. no one expected us to beat geelong and well we didnt. i wouldnt of said we would even beat the doggies at the start of the season. but now we are 0-2 and face a tough test, if the boys can put in a good performance and get the points we are back to where many of us thought we would be. if we are 1-4 it means we are not top 8, and have been beaten by better teams, if we are 0-5 then we really are in a crisis, wallace will be gone and come the end of the season there will be a mass of changes.

 

[TigerCleavage]

Just means we gotta create a new record...The draw is a little easier after Rd 3

There in which lays the the problem. We're never going to win a flag if we don't feel confident in winning every single week. It's no use going into games thinking it's one we're probably not going to win. No team ever one a flag by not beating the best sides in the comp.

 

[JSFish]

Looking at the draw Fish, we have only 1 game in the next 4 weeks that I'm confident in winning and thats the Dees in round 4. However, if we were to knock off the Dogs this week and then the Dees I would be feeling more confident heading into games against the Roos and Swans in rounds 5-6. Thats why I'm saying that its a case of now or never heading into this week.

Fair enough, but now or never is still an overreaction. Even if we were to lose this week, we'll still be strongly favoured to beat Melbourne, which would leave us 1-3. And despite the fact that they aren't a good football team, a convincing win will still provide some boost in confidence. We won't be expected to win either of the following two games, but both of them we'll be a reasonable shot in, and winning at least one of them is definitely not out of the question.

Basically what I'm trying to say is we're still a long way from needing to panic. If we do lose this week, and fail to win more than one of the following three games, then maybe start worrying. But saying we need to win in round 3 in order to have 'any real hope' of making the finals - because losing this week means we might lose round 5 and 6 which means we might have a win/loss record too poor to recover from which means we might struggle to make the finals........... - is a bit of a stretch.

 

[RichoRox12]

Great stat.

I couldn't agree more. This week's game is massive for us, we need a win on the board ASAP. To be as competitive as we want to be this year, we have to start beating the classier sides of the competition - simple as that.

 

[mhill]

Shit RT, you're one person I wouldn't expect to make a thread like this. Losing this weekend doesn't rule out making the finals at all. Who said we can't be the 6th team to do it should we lose? And, to be fair, we're quite possibly playing 3 of the teams that will make up the top 4 come season's end to start with. The draw gets nicer as we go.

Agreed that it's a very important game and a win would be fantastic, but **** me, there's 19 rounds to go after it.

Totally agree, JS Fish - we should be 6 and 5 halfway through the year. And that is if we lose to the Bullies.

By the way, you need ***** to spell ****.

 

[dothebowdenshuffle]

There in which lays the the problem. We're never going to win a flag if we don't feel confident in winning every single week. It's no use going into games thinking it's one we're probably not going to win. No team ever one a flag by not beating the best sides in the comp.

There's no doubt that this is the step we need to take and the draw looks perfect to test us over the next 4 weeks. Games v the Bulldogs, Demons, Kangaroos and Swans are all winnable. And we owe a few of those sides for some awful shellackings in the past couple of years. Whilst I agree with JSFish that thread title is too panicky it is time to make a statement.

 

[sante]

The Hawks are yet to win as well, so not all is lost.

Lose against the Doggies and the Melbourne match becomes scary.

 

[gaelictiogar]

Stat or no stats, we'd wanna start winning games of footy pronto

We started the season with record membership, record levels of hope and hype and expectation. We blew it big time R1. and lost R2. If we have another typical Richmond season we will see membership figures plummet next year as the newly excited tigers get disillusioned. This is a must win. Let's not beat about the bush. let's not settle for failure. The team must go out and face down a top side and win. Otherwise we are making up the numbers again and that will be disastrous because hope when disappointed turns to despair and we will be back to basics just as Carlton are booming and Essendon will be improving as well.

 

[_RT_]

Decided to look into it further and have found the 5 sides that made the finals after going 0-3 to start the season. Thought it would be interesting to compare the records of the teams that did make it and those that didn't just to see exactly what we're up against.

The first side was Sydney in 1999. At the end of round 3 they sat last with a % of 67. They ended the year in 8th with an 11-11 record. Were beaten by 69 points in the first week of the finals.

Second side was Adelaide in 2001. At the end of round 3 they sat 15th with a % of 66. They ended the year in 8th with an 12-10 record. Were beaten by 68 points in the first week of the finals.

Third side was Geelong in 2004. At the end of round 3 they sat last with a % of 59. They ended the year in 4th with a 15-7 record. They made it through to the Prelim final .

Fourth side was Melbourne in 2006. At the end of round 3 they sat 15th with a % of 78. Finished the year in 7th with a 13-1-8 record. Beat the Saints week 1 of the finals before losing to Freo.

Fifth side was North in 2007. At the end of round 3 they sat 13th with a % of 85. Finished the year in 4th with a 14-8 record. Were belted by 106 points first week of the finals then beat the Hawks by 33 before again being belted by the Power in the Prelim by 87 points.

Here are the records of the other sides that started seasons 0-3 since 1999:
2008 - Melbourne last with 3-19 record . Port 13th with 7-15 record. Carlton 11th with 10-12 record.
2007 - Richmond last with 3-1-18 record. Melbourne 14th with 5-17 record. Freo 11th with 10-12 record.
2006 - Richmond 9th with 11-11 record.
2005 - Hawthorn 14th with 5-17 record.
2004 - Adelaide 12th with 8-14 record. Bulldogs 14th with 5-17 record.
2003 - Geelong 12th with 7-1-14 record.
2002 - Bulldogs 12th with 9-1-12 record.
2001 - Freo last with 2-20 record. North 13th with 9-13 record.
2000 - Port 14th with 7-1-14 record. Crows 11th with 9-13 record.
1999 - Pies last with 4-18 record. Freo 15th with 5-17 record.

In summary since 1999 23 sides have started with 0-3 records and only 5 have made the finals, meaning 18 have missed out. Of those that missed out the majority ended the season in the bottom 5 with less than 50% winning records and top 5 drafts picks as compensation. So as I said in the title this week effectively becomes now or never. As the stats show not many teams manage to recover from such a poor start.

BTW if I was to extend the figure out to the start of the top 8 then the figures become much worse. As a further 11 sides between 1994-1999 started 0-3 and missed the finals altogether.

 

[PHX]

Here are the records of the other sides that started seasons 0-3 since 1999:
2008 - Melbourne last with 3-19 record . Port 13th with 7-15 record. Carlton 11th with 10-12 record.
2007 - Richmond last with 3-1-18 record. Melbourne 14th with 5-17 record. Freo 11th with 10-12 record.
2006 - Richmond 9th with 11-11 record.
2005 - Hawthorn 14th with 5-17 record.
2004 - Adelaide 12th with 8-14 record. Bulldogs 14th with 5-17 record.
2003 - Geelong 12th with 7-1-14 record.
2002 - Bulldogs 12th with 9-1-12 record.
2001 - Freo last with 2-20 record. North 13th with 9-13 record.
2000 - Port 14th with 7-1-14 record. Crows 11th with 9-13 record.
1999 - Pies last with 4-18 record. Freo 15th with 5-17 record.

Lol trust us to have the best record out of the rest.

 

[coke_zero]

There's no doubt that this is the step we need to take and the draw looks perfect to test us over the next 4 weeks. Games v the Bulldogs, Demons, Kangaroos and Swans are all winnable. And we owe a few of those sides for some awful shellackings in the past couple of years. Whilst I agree with JSFish that thread title is too panicky it is time to make a statement.

terry didnt look to happy after we lost. so obvisly he has that mind set, a lose is not good enough.