It Is Now Or Never

[JSFish]

So as I said in the title this week effectively becomes now or never.

But it's not. First of all, they are stats. Stats aren't the be all and end all, they are simply a reflection of what's happened in the past, which is reasonably irrelevant to our 2009 season. Secondly, if we were to take the stats as meaning a lot more than they do, as you are, 5 teams out of 23 still made it. It's not as though it's never been done before.

If you want to say this week is a must win match, say it because you've looked through the draw and you can't see us winning twelve other matches should we lose this one, not because Fremantle couldn't recover from a bad start ten years ago.

 

[sante]

As Richmond supporters we should understand how much our team relies on confidence etc. Another loss would kill the team IMO. Therefore, its now or never.

 

[JSFish]

Chances are we will beat Melbourne regardless of whether or not we win this week, so if we are so reliant on confidence as a team, round 4 should be a big help going into round 5 and 6. Therefore, it's not now or never. What it is is round 3.

 

[sante]

I know what you mean Fish, but I think a win against one of the better teams after such a disappointing start could really kick things off. If we beat the Dogs this week, we'll probably smash the Demons and there grows our confidence.

FWIW, we have probably played the best 2 performing sides so far and are coming up against another in very good form this week, tough start for our boys.

 

[JSFish]

Completely agree with everything you just said. I haven't disagreed with the fact that it's a very important game at all throughout the thread. But claiming that we need to win in round 3 to have a chance of making the finals is a bit ridiculous.

 

[Barnzy]

I agree with Fish Boy, however if we want to make an impact in the finals instead of just making up the numbers we need to come out beat good teams like the Bulldogs. It will not be the end to being able to make the finals but it would be a clear indication we are not going to a good quality top 6 team. That is unless we majorly improve deficiencies in the side over the course of the year.

 

[_RT_]

But it's not. First of all, they are stats. Stats aren't the be all and end all, they are simply a reflection of what's happened in the past, which is reasonably irrelevant to our 2009 season. Secondly, if we were to take the stats as meaning a lot more than they do, as you are, 5 teams out of 23 still made it. It's not as though it's never been done before.

If you want to say this week is a must win match, say it because you've looked through the draw and you can't see us winning twelve other matches should we lose this one, not because Fremantle couldn't recover from a bad start ten years ago.

Ok lets go with the logic that says stats from previous seasons mean nothing.

Why is it then that a majority of Richmond fans are using the 'we had 8 wins from last 11 games to end last year' stat as part of their justification for us being a certain top 8 side this year?

BTW Fish, I'm not basing it on Freo not being able to recover from a horrible start 10 years ago, I'm basing it on Richmond not having been able to recover from it twice under TW's coaching. That is why this week is a now or never week because history shows that we don't recover from it.

 

[JSFish]

Why is it then that a majority of Richmond fans are using the 'we had 8 wins from last 11 games to end last year' stat as part of their justification for us being a certain top 8 side this year?

That's a completely different situation. Our end to last season is very relevant in terms of judging us as a team - recent performances are generally an indicator of how good a team is. The performances of North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Adelaide etc over a season in which they got off to a bad start is not relevant. I know what you're trying to say - that these stats show that it's difficult to recover from such a position - but using them to make such an absolute statement about the next 20 rounds of football is a bit narrow minded.

BTW Fish, I'm not basing it on Freo not being able to recover from a horrible start 10 years ago,

I know, that was just one example. Coincidentally it was also the one that made my argument sound more convincing.

I'm basing it on Richmond not having been able to recover from it twice under TW's coaching. That is why this week is a now or never week because history shows that we don't recover from it.

Twice. We are no chance of ever successfully making the finals after a bad start under TW - 'history shows we don't recover' - because we're yet to do it out of two attempts? And to be fair, in 2007 we only won three games for the season, and we're obviously better than that now, and in 2006 we were one spot away from the eight.

Point is, it's a different side, different year. Anything can happen.

 

[Madtiger2006]

If we were actually properly ready in Round 1 and prepared better and played a solid game against the Blues(even if we lost by 3 or 4 goals) we would have gone down to Geelong with Mcmahon in the side and with a bit less intensity and probably lost by 10 goals. So we'd almost have the same percentage anyway imo. It will be much better that we lost by alot in Round 1 and made that vital change(Mcmahon replaced by Polo) and the injury to Raines will hopefully allow Tambling to get a run in defence this week(if he is fit)

 

[CoggaRules]

That is why this week is a now or never week because history shows that we don't recover from it.

History suggests that we are marking time with what it suggests.
We dont show any signs in the pre season.
We come out and invariably get walloped in round 1.
We butter up the next week, purely on the back of embarrassed players, being torn into by the media, the public and anyone else that wasted their money fronting up the first week.
If it is to repeat itself, we will be looking for the exit gates sometime into the 3rd quarter.
If it does, then whoever comes in here and utters the same old BS about give it time, TW needs to do this, the players need to play for the jumper and all that shit that has been going down for the last 4 years, then with all due respect, you would be candidates for one of those scams that says, give me a mill and i will make it work for you and give you 3 mill in a few months. Then when you are screaming that you were taken for a ride, calling up ACA and complaining that you were dumb as dog shit and believed money grew on trees.

 

[camsmith]

I'd agree we probably need to win this week (if not this week vs dogs then in R11), otherwise it would make it hard. Before the season I thought the most likely outcome after round 3 would be 1-2 so thats still possible but instead of beating an average side like Carlton we now have to beat a very good side in the Dogs.

If you look at our draw... After the Adelaide game in round 14 if we want to be a finals team we really shouldn't lose more than 2 games ( those being coll/syd + haw). So if we can get to 6-8 at round 14 I like our chances at sneaking in the top 8. That means from here on in we need to win every second week till round 14. Games against Melb, Bris, Ess, Freo, WC and atleast once vs the Dogs is needed.

Our draw:

R3 Western Bulldogs (ES)
R4 Melbourne (MCG)
R5 North Melbourne (ES)
R6 Sydney (SCG)
R7 Brisbane Lions (MCG)
R8 Port Adelaide (AAMI)
R9 Essendon (MCG)
R10 Fremantle (Subi)
R11 Western Bulldogs (ES)
R12 West Coast (ES)
R13 St Kilda (ES)
R14 Adelaide (GC)
R15 Carlton (MCG)
R16 North Melbourne (MCG)
R17 Essendon (MCG)
R18 Melbourne (MCG)
R19 Sydney (MCG)
R20 Collingwood (MCG)
R21 Hawthorn (MCG)
R22 West Coast (Subi)

 

[SleepingGiant]

I'd agree we probably need to win this week (if not this week vs dogs then in R11), otherwise it would make it hard. Before the season I thought the most likely outcome after round 3 would be 1-2 so thats still possible but instead of beating an average side like Carlton we now have to beat a very good side in the Dogs.

If you look at our draw... After the Adelaide game in round 14 if we want to be a finals team we really shouldn't lose more than 2 games ( those being coll/syd + haw). So if we can get to 6-8 at round 14 I like our chances at sneaking in the top 8. That means from here on in we need to win every second week till round 14. Games against Melb, Bris, Ess, Freo, WC and atleast once vs the Dogs is needed.

Our draw:

R3 Western Bulldogs (ES)
R4 Melbourne (MCG)
R5 North Melbourne (ES)
R6 Sydney (SCG)
R7 Brisbane Lions (MCG)
R8 Port Adelaide (AAMI)
R9 Essendon (MCG)
R10 Fremantle (Subi)
R11 Western Bulldogs (ES)
R12 West Coast (ES)
R13 St Kilda (ES)
R14 Adelaide (GC)
R15 Carlton (MCG)
R16 North Melbourne (MCG)
R17 Essendon (MCG)
R18 Melbourne (MCG)
R19 Sydney (MCG)
R20 Collingwood (MCG)
R21 Hawthorn (MCG)
R22 West Coast (Subi)

Games bolded are what we should win, no excuses

 

[JSFish]

Agreed. In fact I'd even go as far as to say if we lose another match for the year, heads should roll. Make that two years, even.

 

[SleepingGiant]

Agreed. In fact I'd even go as far as to say if we lose another match for the year, heads should roll. Make that two years, even.

Your comment implies that my post is stupid, however it's not. We are in the 5th year of Wallaces contract... we should be able to beat all teams bar 1 or 2 in the Hawks and the Cats.

 

[CoggaRules]

If we were actually properly ready in Round 1 and prepared better and played a solid game against the Blues(even if we lost by 3 or 4 goals) we would have gone down to Geelong with Mcmahon in the side and with a bit less intensity and probably lost by 10 goals. So we'd almost have the same percentage anyway imo. It will be much better that we lost by alot in Round 1 and made that vital change(Mcmahon replaced by Polo) and the injury to Raines will hopefully allow Tambling to get a run in defence this week(if he is fit)

LMAO....so we have sunk to these depths now. It was better we lost by alot, so as not to lose by alot the following week in order to have a couple of more percent? Ontop of exposing the culprits to the coach who has built a side, with them in it? LMAO......sheeeeeeeesh
Dont forget these words uttered by our esteemed coach dude...i want to see who wants in for the ride...he is looking ,but i am tipping he has trouble seeing.

 

[Bruce Monteath]

The more I think about, the more I think Plough's card was stamped at about 10pm on Thursday March 26. Some will bang on about "round 1" but I believe we were laid bare for all to see that night.

The predictable "gallant loss" against Geelong only confirms my suspicions.

We're well on track for ninth and another 5 year plan.

I agree with the OP - if I'm to be proven wrong it is now or never. Beat the Dogs boys.

 

[lvt06]

Your comment implies that my post is stupid, however it's not. We are in the 5th year of Wallaces contract... we should be able to beat all teams bar 1 or 2 in the Hawks and the Cats.

Stupid comment. It means nothing. Plenty of coaches have had longer then Wallace and would not expect - no excuses to win 18 games in a year.

13 wins and in the 8 is what i expect.

Top 4 is what i want. It starts this week. Beat the dogs and smash the Dees and anything can happen.

 

[rota69]

If we can beat Melbourne, Syndey and Kangaroos we are right back in the thick of things. I think we need to wait untill round 6 before we make a proper judgement of our chances.