Recommitted Jacob Hopper [re-signed]

[Orange Agent]

I compare it a little to the Allen Christensen trade from a couple of years ago, where we got pick 21 for him and that was probably unders at the time.

I think if he nominates us, that's where negotiations will start in any case.

I dont see the comparison. Bundy was a draft slider at pick 40 as opposed to Hopper who dominated u/18s and was always ranked top 5 of his draft year.

 

[Toadvine]

I dont see the comparison. Bundy was a draft slider at pick 40 as opposed to Hopper who dominated u/18s and was always ranked top 5 of his draft year.

Not to mention Bundy's struggle with keeping his body in AFL condition and attitude to training.

 

[DBAH0]

I dont see the comparison. Bundy was a draft slider at pick 40 as opposed to Hopper who dominated u/18s and was always ranked top 5 of his draft year.

Christensen did very well at AFL level though when he was with us, you don't find many young AFL midfielders for top teams who can average around 20 possies and kick 20 goals.

He has gone backwards since he's been with Brisbane though.

I'm surely if he nominates us a deal of some sort will get done, we're one of the better teams in the league when it comes to that...

 

[Glen Buterol]

I don't overly rate the kid. A team will pay a high price though. Top 15 pick minimum.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I dont see the comparison. Bundy was a draft slider at pick 40 as opposed to Hopper who dominated u/18s and was always ranked top 5 of his draft year.

Where players were taken in the draft doesn't determine their trade value.

 

[dlanod]

Where players were taken in the draft doesn't determine their trade value.

For those traded after their first two to three years you'll find a strong correspondence between their original pick and what they got traded for. Players who have "come good" from a late pick will go for less than one who has "disappointed" as an early pick even if their actual performance is similar.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

For those traded after their first two to three years you'll find a strong correspondence between their original pick and what they got traded for. Players who have "come good" from a late pick will go for less than one who has "disappointed" as an early pick even if their actual performance is similar.

Whatever correlation there is doesnt imply equal value though.

Basically all of the players brisbane lost 2/3 years in went for a lot less than their original pick. Other clubs have experienced the same also.

Hence talk of hopper (given his injuries and contract status etc) being drafted at 7 but only worth 15-20 in a trade (assuming he nominates one club) is highly realistic i would have thought.

 

[Damon_3388]

Whatever correlation there is doesnt imply equal value though.

Basically all of the players brisbane lost 2/3 years in went for a lot less than their original pick. Other clubs have experienced the same also.

Hence talk of hopper (given his injuries and contract status etc) being drafted at 7 but only worth 15-20 in a trade (assuming he nominates one club) is highly realistic i would have thought.

Add to this the "discounts" that GWS have accepted when trading out former top 30 picks like:

Liam Sumner (Pick #10, 2011 National Draft)
Jon O'Rourke (Pick #2, 2012 National Draft)
Lachlan Plowman (Pick #3, 2012 National Draft)
Will Hoskin-Elliott (Pick #4, 2012 National Draft)
Kristian Jaksch (Pick #12, 2012 National Draft)
James Stewart (Pick #27, 2012 National Draft)
Jarred Pickett (Pick #4, 2014 National Draft)
Caleb Marchbank (Pick #6, 2014 National Draft)
Paul Ahern (Pick #7, 2014 National Draft)
Pat McKenna (Pick #23, 2014 National Draft)

 

[Giant Strides]

It is true that young players departing their clubs after only their initial stint tend to bring in a lesser trade value, mainly because they have only displayed potential. I would opine, though, that Damon_3388's list is a little misleading (albeit factually true) because of GWS's circumstances in past years.

In Hopper's case, yes he's still in the 'high potential' category, but given his pre-draft expectations, and current standing (e.g. high ranking among rising star players for clearances, tackles & contested possession) he will be highly sought after. I think that he's more accurately rated (especially against this year's draft crop) around #6-15. Of course Geelong would like to think (and say) that he's more accurately rated #15-20 given that their potential trade currency would be around #19 this year (Carlton's second rounder) or likely #15-18 next year (Geelong's future first rounder). Can't blame Geelong or their BF posters for that. Just don't start with the 'he's injury-prone' rubbish that Carlton posters went with last year about Marchbank.

However, you can't blame GWS if they rate Hopper higher and try to get more. Given that Carlton & Essendon also seem keen for him, I wouldn't be surprised if they used that leverage to drive a better price - similar to the reports of using Richmond's interest & offer for Treloar drove up Collingwood's ultimate trade. Geelong are pretty reasonable at the trade table, GWS are generally good but can drive a hard bargain - and they may do so if Hopper elects to leave, given that GWS is now in normal circumstances for list size & TPP and also that we have the draft penalty against this year's draft.

Just on that list:
Liam Sumner (Pick #10, 2011 National Draft) - career derailed by injuries, so traded for very little but not worth much
Jon O'Rourke (Pick #2, 2012 National Draft) - career derailed by injuries, #19 was actually overs for what he'd shown - but Hopper is much better
Lachlan Plowman (Pick #3, 2012 National Draft) - agree he was traded for unders (mainly to get a future pick) to allow him to go home
Will Hoskin-Elliott (Pick #4, 2012 National Draft) - agree he was traded for unders, but also career impacted by frequent injuries
Kristian Jaksch (Pick #12, 2012 National Draft) - actually we got overs for KJ, trading he, Whiley & #19 for #7
James Stewart (Pick #27, 2012 National Draft) - agree that was unders, but he was no hope to break into the first team & released for more opportunity

The last four were all part of last's year need to suddenly trade down to normal list size & therefore is unrepresentative of normal trading. However,
Jarred Pickett (Pick #4, 2014 National Draft) - yes, unders for Jared partly because of his Lisfranc injury
Caleb Marchbank (Pick #6, 2014 National Draft) - definitely unders at Geelong's 2017 first rounder
Paul Ahern (Pick #7, 2014 National Draft) - unders driven by his double ACL injury
Pat McKenna (Pick #23, 2014 National Draft) - a speculative pick that just didn't come on

So, probably KJ, Plowman or Marchbank the closest comparisons but in different circumstances.

 

[tigerwill]

It is true that young players departing their clubs after only their initial stint tend to bring in a lesser trade value, mainly because they have only displayed potential. I would opine, though, that Damon_3388's list is a little misleading (albeit factually true) because of GWS's circumstances in past years.

In Hopper's case, yes he's still in the 'high potential' category, but given his pre-draft expectations, and current standing (e.g. high ranking among rising star players for clearances, tackles & contested possession) he will be highly sought after. I think that he's more accurately rated (especially against this year's draft crop) around #6-15. Of course Geelong would like to think (and say) that he's more accurately rated #15-20 given that their potential trade currency would be around #19 this year (Carlton's second rounder) or likely #15-18 next year (Geelong's future first rounder). Can't blame Geelong or their BF posters for that. Just don't start with the 'he's injury-prone' rubbish that Carlton posters went with last year about Marchbank.

However, you can't blame GWS if they rate Hopper higher and try to get more. Given that Carlton & Essendon also seem keen for him, I wouldn't be surprised if they used that leverage to drive a better price - similar to the reports of using Richmond's interest & offer for Treloar drove up Collingwood's ultimate trade. Geelong are pretty reasonable at the trade table, GWS are generally good but can drive a hard bargain - and they may do so if Hopper elects to leave, given that GWS is now in normal circumstances for list size & TPP and also that we have the draft penalty against this year's draft.

Just on that list:
Liam Sumner (Pick #10, 2011 National Draft) - career derailed by injuries, so traded for very little but not worth much
Jon O'Rourke (Pick #2, 2012 National Draft) - career derailed by injuries, #19 was actually overs for what he'd shown - but Hopper is much better
Lachlan Plowman (Pick #3, 2012 National Draft) - agree he was traded for unders (mainly to get a future pick) to allow him to go home
Will Hoskin-Elliott (Pick #4, 2012 National Draft) - agree he was traded for unders, but also career impacted by frequent injuries
Kristian Jaksch (Pick #12, 2012 National Draft) - actually we got overs for KJ, trading he, Whiley & #19 for #7
James Stewart (Pick #27, 2012 National Draft) - agree that was unders, but he was no hope to break into the first team & released for more opportunity

The last four were all part of last's year need to suddenly trade down to normal list size & therefore is unrepresentative of normal trading. However,
Jarred Pickett (Pick #4, 2014 National Draft) - yes, unders for Jared partly because of his Lisfranc injury
Caleb Marchbank (Pick #6, 2014 National Draft) - definitely unders at Geelong's 2017 first rounder
Paul Ahern (Pick #7, 2014 National Draft) - unders driven by his double ACL injury
Pat McKenna (Pick #23, 2014 National Draft) - a speculative pick that just didn't come on

So, probably KJ, Plowman or Marchbank the closest comparisons but in different circumstances.

Given how GWS list size/tpp etc has come to parity with other clubs, what do you see Hoppers value at?

 

[Giant Strides]

Given how GWS list size/tpp etc has come to parity with other clubs, what do you see Hoppers value at?

As I said above, a pure appraisal is #6 to #15, especially in comparison to this year's draft. As an inside mid, I'd take him ahead of most of this year's crop. However, I agree that you tend to not get true value on departure, so anywhere down to late first round is likely. Richmond with one of their two first rounders probably in that #14-17 range would have sufficient value, but Essendon around there also a touch higher & St Kilda if they're interested would have best value with the worst of their two picks.

 

[Determinant]

Given how GWS list size/tpp etc has come to parity with other clubs, what do you see Hoppers value at?

That happened last year, we are at "parity" as far as possible when 2 thirds of draftees are Victorian

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Add to this the "discounts" that GWS have accepted when trading out former top 30 picks like:

Liam Sumner (Pick #10, 2011 National Draft)
Jon O'Rourke (Pick #2, 2012 National Draft)
Lachlan Plowman (Pick #3, 2012 National Draft)
Will Hoskin-Elliott (Pick #4, 2012 National Draft)
Kristian Jaksch (Pick #12, 2012 National Draft)
James Stewart (Pick #27, 2012 National Draft)
Jarred Pickett (Pick #4, 2014 National Draft)
Caleb Marchbank (Pick #6, 2014 National Draft)
Paul Ahern (Pick #7, 2014 National Draft)
Pat McKenna (Pick #23, 2014 National Draft)

This is a fair point
Sumner drafted #10 traded as a throw in with plowman
Marchbank #6 traded for #16
Pickett #4 traded throw in with marchbank
Orourke #2 traded for #19
Jaksch #12 traded with #19 and whiley for #7= pick 27
Ahern #7 traded for #69
Mckenna #23 traded for #55
Stewart #27 traded for #77
Steele traded for #27

And outside gws
Docherty #12 traded for #33
Longer #8 traded with #48 for #25 and #41 = pick #21
Polec #5 traded with #21 and #45 for #14 and #34= pick 28
Yeo #30 traded for #28
Karnezis #25 traded for Paine
Cripps #25 traded for #44

I am aware ahern and sumner are outliers as they were injury prone salary dumps but the example of most of the rest shows that when guys leave OOC at the end of their 1st contract (and nominate one club) unless they are prove stars by then the original club generally only gets 75 cents in the dollar at best. On that basis a pick around 15-20 is about where hopper should be valued at best.

 

[Foucault1989]

This is a fair point
Sumner drafted #10 traded as a throw in with plowman
Marchbank #6 traded for #16
Pickett #4 traded throw in with marchbank
Orourke #2 traded for #19
Jaksch #12 traded with #19 and whiley for #7= pick 27
Ahern #7 traded for #69
Mckenna #23 traded for #55
Stewart #27 traded for #77
Steele traded for #27

And outside gws
Docherty #12 traded for #33
Longer #8 traded with #48 for #25 and #41 = pick #21
Polec #5 traded with #21 and #45 for #14 and #34= pick 28
Yeo #30 traded for #28
Karnezis #25 traded for Paine
Cripps #25 traded for #44

I am aware ahern and sumner are outliers as they were injury prone salary dumps but the example of most of the rest shows that when guys leave OOC at the end of their 1st contract (and nominate one club) unless they are prove stars by then the original club generally only gets 75 cents in the dollar at best. On that basis a pick around 15-20 is about where hopper should be valued at best.

I think Hopper is a level above any one of those GWS players on that list, except perhaps Marchbank. 12-15 is his worth IMO

 

[Ducce35]

Almost a lock given his form to date.

You r kidding yourself

On SM-T810 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[citizen-erased]

As I said above, a pure appraisal is #6 to #15, especially in comparison to this year's draft. As an inside mid, I'd take him ahead of most of this year's crop. However, I agree that you tend to not get true value on departure, so anywhere down to late first round is likely. Richmond with one of their two first rounders probably in that #14-17 range would have sufficient value, but Essendon around there also a touch higher & St Kilda if they're interested would have best value with the worst of their two picks.

our 1st (this year or next) i'd happily pay for Hopper.
He is exactly what we are missing (big inside body who can tackle, clear the ball and kick goals)
bit behind in his development due to some injury issues, but if we could have Parish, Francis and Hopper on our list from that draft fit and firing in 2018, i'd be quite happy.

 

[Orange Agent]

Mark Stevens has been reading BigFooty. Unfortunately he is about 2 months behind.

 

[Bokonon_]

I think Hopper is a level above any one of those GWS players on that list, except perhaps Marchbank. 12-15 is his worth IMO

Definitely Marchbank above
Otherwise arguable. Steele close but given Hopper selected above him last year probably have to concede your point.

 

[scoman]

Cant see GWS being very generous anymore at the trade table. They dont have to shorten the list and as it stands they dont have a first rounder either.

Hopper is middle of first round at the very worst. If people think he is an end of first/ early second they are dreaming. If that is the case we should be offering a fourth for Charlie Cameron.

If we could convince Hopper to come to the lions Ports pick might not be enough on its own.

 

[F_therest]

Cant see GWS being very generous anymore at the trade table. They dont have to shorten the list and as it stands they dont have a first rounder either.

Hopper is middle of first round at the very worst. If people think he is an end of first/ early second they are dreaming. If that is the case we should be offering a fourth for Charlie Cameron.

If we could convince Hopper to come to the lions Ports pick might not be enough on its own.

Late first might be enough if push comes to shove...similar value to Marchbank last year.

 

[scoman]

Late first might be enough if push comes to shove...similar value to Marchbank last year.

Maybe. I just think GWS will be a different beast to trade with this year.

 

[Bokonon_]

Maybe. I just think GWS will be a different beast to trade with this year.

I think it'll be more simple this year. Adrian Caruso has said retain is our priority with the youngsters. Where can't we'll trade for maximum value.
There wont be the salary dumps and complexities of our previous trades. I think Marchbank was worth more than Hopper but you cant compare them because of the complexity if our deal with Carlton.
If someone offerrs an early first round pick for Hopper that's his value. I actually think late first round early second is realistic.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Maybe. I just think GWS will be a different beast to trade with this year.

They might be but he's out of contract which lessens their leverage considerably. Once he picks one club if that club offers a late first round/early 2nd they might want pick 10 but they are not going to send him to the draft over it. Unless he is prepared to just be auctioned to whichever vic club makes GWS the best offer (and players almost never do that now they just nominate one club) they are not going to get full value for him.

 

[F_therest]

I think it'll be more simple this year. Adrian Caruso has said retain is our priority with the youngsters. Where can't we'll trade for maximum value.
There wont be the salary dumps and complexities of our previous trades. I think Marchbank was worth more than Hopper but you cant compare them because of the complexity if our deal with Carlton.
If someone offerrs an early first round pick for Hopper that's his value. I actually think late first round early second is realistic.

Personally hoping we somehow get pick 19 or so as compensation for Casboult and trade that for Hopper.

 

[Prochard123]

Personally hoping we somehow get pick 19 or so as compensation for Casboult and trade that for Hopper.

For the sake of your mental well-being please forget this thought.