Free Agency Jade Gresham [Joins Essendon as RFA]

[botts]

I think SOS would see value in getting Shiel, it fits his MO and there wouldnt be this level of discussion if he didnt.

I dont think there is any level of money Essendon could chuck in for his contract that makes it worth basically swapping Gresham for Shiel though. Saints are definitely better off getting band 2 for him and just trading for Shiel (assuming he now just wants to leave).

Doesn’t fit lyons though

 

[LordLucifer]

nah, that would make the situation worse. Decent players leaving for no compo doesnt fit well with me.

If you are a club that is well run & there is solid cameraderie amongst the playing group, your players won't want to leave.

 

[Baker_for_PM]

Help me with this one, Ess fans say they are fine when it comes to the salary cap and we have the De goey war chest left over so we don't need the help.
If Gresh leaves and its band 2 that is still to high of a pick for what Shiel is worth, the market shows that Brodie Grundy

4

Brodie Grundy

Age

31

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

HO

32.0

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.0

5star

HO

34.6

5star

D

13.8

4star

K

5.2

2star

HB

8.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

20.6

5star

being pick 27 and Lachie Hunter going for a third round would mean he is worth a 3rd so a pick around the 40's seams right. I can't see us wanting to help give another club a first round pick just for a reduced one year salary of a player who even if we are interested in I think we can all agree may have limited scope because of age and injuries.
The only reason I could see a deal for a band 1 comp is for the saints to keep it and maybe give a more generous pick if we fandangle it through other club deals maybe something in the early 30's but that only makes sense if Ess really need Shiels money off the books to help with Makay and such which most on here say that don't need.
Neither club is in the business of doing favours so who has the most pressing need. Us? Gresh's compo without any deal looks more likely to be used getting Henry. Ess? Is a fit Shiel next year a walk up start in the 22 still? Does that even matter if what is said that his contract won't hamper any other deal this trade season.
If this is a legitimate deal being discussed is there another benefit for either club I'm missing or are there some porky pies being told and one of us needs financial help.

 

[Keystone agony]

Help me with this one, Ess fans say they are fine when it comes to the salary cap and we have the De goey war chest left over so we don't need the help.
If Gresh leaves and its band 2 that is still to high of a pick for what Shiel is worth, the market shows that Brodie Grundy being pick 27 and Lachie Hunter going for a third round would mean he is worth a 3rd so a pick around the 40's seams right. I can't see us wanting to help give another club a first round pick just for a reduced one year salary of a player who even if we are interested in I think we can all agree may have limited scope because of age and injuries.
The only reason I could see a deal for a band 1 comp is for the saints to keep it and maybe give a more generous pick if we fandangle it through other club deals maybe something in the early 30's but that only makes sense if Ess really need Shiels money off the books to help with Makay and such which most on here say that don't need.
Neither club is in the business of doing favours so who has the most pressing need. Us? Gresh's compo without any deal looks more likely to be used getting Henry. Ess? Is a fit Shiel next year a walk up start in the 22 still? Does that even matter if what is said that his contract won't hamper any other deal this trade season.
If this is a legitimate deal being discussed is there another benefit for either club I'm missing or are there some porky pies being told and one of us needs financial help.

Shiel is not being traded for pick 14 after the Gresham compo

No Essendon fan with half a brain is realistically expecting that

As ive said it depends alot on if hes getting Band 2 or Band 3 anyway. A 600k deal may only be Band 3 (Not saying it definitly is).

Saints could get pick 32 for Gresham (As compo)

Or essendon pay up 750k and trigger Band 1 (Pick 13 compo) - Which is alot better than pick 32

Essendon only do this if we get something in return of the worth of 32 + X = 14 + Shiel

We would want the value roundabouts of that X

After the Dunstan/B.Crouch situation from years ago, ive no idea how this will pass the pub test, but im not sure how the Bowes/Pick 7 could either 12 months ago

Essendon are essentially buying a draft pick by using their cap (ie paying 150k extra a year for Gresham and part of Shiels salary)

If hes likely to trigger Band 2 anyway (AFL says 600k is fine for Band 2) then saints have far less incentive to give Essendon much by moving the compo from 19 to 14 + Shiel

I feel like Essendon are going to do the Mckay deal for 750k × 5 and see what compo the AFL suggest. If they say thats Band 1 then i think Essendon will consider doing the same for Gresham

Pick 27, F2 and Shiel > Pick 19
Pick 27, F2 and Shiel ~ Pick 14

 

[Caligo]

After the Dunstan/B.Crouch situation from years ago, ive no idea how this will pass the pub test, but im not sure how the Bowes/Pick 7 could either 12 months ago

Bowes pick 7 wasn't a created pick. It didn't push anyone else down the list.

I didn't like it, but it wasn't anything like this. Dunstan is the precedent. The AFL know what to do.

 

[Keystone agony]

Bowes pick 7 wasn't a created pick. It didn't push anyone else down the list.

I didn't like it, but it wasn't anything like this. Dunstan is the precedent. The AFL know what to do.

Im not sure why it matters whether its created or not

Pick 12 the pick before is not a created pick

 

[Caligo]

Im not sure why it matters whether its created or not

Pick 12 the pick before is not a created pick

It matters because by creating a pick you push others down. That doesn't happen when trading a pick that always existed.

If crouch had gotten pick 2 then whoever had pick 4 gets pushed to 5. When Bowes got traded with 7, whoever had pick 9 just stayed at 9.

It is a huge difference.

 

[Keystone agony]

For me this trade makes way too much sense

Saints In: Pick 5 + Shiel
Saints Out: Gresham, F1, 31, 50

GC In: F1(Ess), 27, 31, 46, 50
GC Out: Pick 5, 57, 61, 66 and 69

Ess In: F1 (Saints), Pick 14
Ess Out: 1.2 mill sal cap, 27, 46, F1, Shiel


I dont see which club loses there with that

Suns walk to the next deal with
F1 (Ess)
3800 Points
J.Sharp Points
Burgess Points

That 57, 61, 66 and 69 can be shared amongst dons and saints, who both trade these draft night back to the suns for a higher pick so suns gain more points

Ie Pick 50 for ( for 57, 61 and 66) = +124 points

 

[Keystone agony]

It matters because by creating a pick you push others down. That doesn't happen when trading a pick that always existed.

If crouch had gotten pick 2 then whoever had pick 4 gets pushed to 5. When Bowes got traded with 7, whoever had pick 9 just stayed at 9.

It is a huge difference.

You can easily trade the pick before to get around that

But that wont matter imo. Everyone gets pushed down due to compensation, doesnt affect how it can be used

 

[Caligo]

You can easily trade the pick before to get around that

But that wont matter imo. Everyone gets pushed down due to compensation, doesnt affect how it can be used

I don't think we are understanding each other. Once st kilda get whatever compo they get they can trade it however they want. But if they try to do a dodgy deal to get better compo, that will be banned.

Dodginess in the creation of picks is the issue, not the trading.

The fact that other fairly created compo pushes people down is immaterial.

 

[Keystone agony]

I don't think we are understanding each other. Once st kilda get whatever compo they get they can trade it however they want. But if they try to do a dodgy deal to get better compo, that will be banned.

Dodginess in the creation of picks is the issue, not the trading.

The fact that other fairly created compo pushes people down is immaterial.

I guess it just depends what offer is tabled if that warrants Band 1 then it warrants Band 1

Clubs are taking the risk of having a large chunk of salary cap tied up for 5+ years

Whether clubs are overpaying by say 20% compared to what the AFL thinks the player should be paid, really shouldnt be upto them to determine a players worth. The market should determine the players worth.

This is where FA works, a lowly ranked side getting these players and any additional worth that comes with it because they have cap room

The AFL would be stoked with this

Enough of the Frawleys, Jezza Dangerfield, Lynch, S.May picking the top teams and playing for a bit less because theyve been paid hansomly by franchises on the North East

Bringing in buying picks will combat alot of this i feel

 

[Caligo]

I guess it just depends what offer is tabled if that warrants Band 1 then it warrants Band 1

Clubs are taking the risk of having a large chunk of salary cap tied up for 5+ years

Whether clubs are overpaying by say 20% compared to what the AFL thinks the player should be paid, really shouldnt be upto them to determine a players worth. The market should determine the players worth.

This is where FA works, a lowly ranked side getting these players and any additional worth that comes with it because they have cap room

The AFL would be stoked with this

Enough of the Frawleys, Jezza Dangerfield, Lynch, S.May picking the top teams and playing for a bit less because theyve been paid hansomly by franchises on the North East

Bringing in buying picks will combat alot of this i feel

You still aren't getting it, possibly on purpose. If you want to offer Gresham a contract that gets band 1 by itself that is fine. If you want to make it part of other deals that wouldn't happen (according to the AFL) on their own then you will be banned. Just like Adelaide and St kilda were.

It is really simple. The only question is whether the shiel deal looks legit as a stand alone trade (the Dunstan deal didn't, according to the AFL).

Bringing in other unrelated cases like Bowes or Lynch only muddies the waters, which seems to be your intent.

 

[jdstorm]

nah, that would make the situation worse. Decent players leaving for no compo doesnt fit well with me.

Help me with this one, Ess fans say they are fine when it comes to the salary cap and we have the De goey war chest left over so we don't need the help.
If Gresh leaves and its band 2 that is still to high of a pick for what Shiel is worth, the market shows that Brodie Grundy being pick 27 and Lachie Hunter going for a third round would mean he is worth a 3rd so a pick around the 40's seams right. I can't see us wanting to help give another club a first round pick just for a reduced one year salary of a player who even if we are interested in I think we can all agree may have limited scope because of age and injuries.
The only reason I could see a deal for a band 1 comp is for the saints to keep it and maybe give a more generous pick if we fandangle it through other club deals maybe something in the early 30's but that only makes sense if Ess really need Shiels money off the books to help with Makay and such which most on here say that don't need.
Neither club is in the business of doing favours so who has the most pressing need. Us? Gresh's compo without any deal looks more likely to be used getting Henry. Ess? Is a fit Shiel next year a walk up start in the 22 still? Does that even matter if what is said that his contract won't hamper any other deal this trade season.
If this is a legitimate deal being discussed is there another benefit for either club I'm missing or are there some porky pies being told and one of us needs financial help.

From what I’ve seen it’s less of X club needs financial help and more of having more money is always better.

In reality I’d speculate that this whole situation has blown up out of a comedy of errors (Pretty pat for Essendon)

What I would guess happened is

Essendon: We’re shopping Sheil to see if any other Melbourne team wants him. He’d like to be on a contender and we’re happy to accommodate

St Kilda: We’re interested How about a 3rd round pick, but also you need to pay some of his salary

Essendon: if we’re paying a lot of his salary we want a second round pick.

Saints: Fine pay enough and that seems fair, we’ve got a spare one from the Gresham compo. You can have that.

Essendon: Wait that picks coming from us paying Gresham, could we still have it if we pay Gresham extra money and that makes it a first.

Saints: No if it’s a first we want it.

Essendon: if we don’t get it you can stay stuck with a 2nd

Saints: Fine you can have the first but we want something extra. Pay all Sheils contract or give us a 2nd or something

Essendon: sure

Things just escalated and it’s a fair deal for both clubs so why not.

 

[Keystone agony]

You still aren't getting it, possibly on purpose. If you want to offer Gresham a contract that gets band 1 by itself that is fine. If you want to make it part of other deals that wouldn't happen (according to the AFL) on their own then you will be banned. Just like Adelaide and St kilda were.

It is really simple. The only question is whether the shiel deal looks legit as a stand alone trade (the Dunstan deal didn't, according to the AFL).

Bringing in other unrelated cases like Bowes or Lynch only muddies the waters, which seems to be your intent.

It wont be made apart of other deals. The pick prior will be

We will see, as i said id be surprised if its all allowed but its hard one to prevent especially when you have 2 friends doing the deal

Incorperating it with the AFLs love child for their beat deal they could get for 5 is even more reason to not look at it

We dont know exaclty the behind the scenes of the Crows/Saints Dunstan/Crouch ploy. Maybe they advertised it too much and asked the wrong questions

There are many more moving parts since those days which make it harder to determine

Im not sure based on my deal above how the AFL could say no (If you change Gresham to the pick 13 - 14 being the compo)

 

[Caligo]

It wont be made apart of other deals. The pick prior will be

We will see, as i said id be surprised if its all allowed but its hard one to prevent especially when you have 2 friends doing the deal

Incorperating it with the AFLs love child for their beat deal they could get for 5 is even more reason to not look at it

We dont know exaclty the behind the scenes of the Crows/Saints Dunstan/Crouch ploy. Maybe they advertised it too much and asked the wrong questions

There are many more moving parts since those days which make it harder to determine

Im not sure based on my deal above how the AFL could say no (If you change Gresham to the pick 13 - 14 being the compo)

The AFL says no by saying no. It doesn't need a reason. Maybe essendon can hide it so well the AFL is fooled, but I think the cat is out of the bag now.

They could also just ignore their own precedent. Peak AFL.

 

[Baker_for_PM]

Shiel is not being traded for pick 14 after the Gresham compo

No Essendon fan with half a brain is realistically expecting that

As ive said it depends alot on if hes getting Band 2 or Band 3 anyway. A 600k deal may only be Band 3 (Not saying it definitly is).

Saints could get pick 32 for Gresham (As compo)

Or essendon pay up 750k and trigger Band 1 (Pick 13 compo) - Which is alot better than pick 32

Essendon only do this if we get something in return of the worth of 32 + X = 14 + Shiel

We would want the value roundabouts of that X

After the Dunstan/B.Crouch situation from years ago, ive no idea how this will pass the pub test, but im not sure how the Bowes/Pick 7 could either 12 months ago

Essendon are essentially buying a draft pick by using their cap (ie paying 150k extra a year for Gresham and part of Shiels salary)

If hes likely to trigger Band 2 anyway (AFL says 600k is fine for Band 2) then saints have far less incentive to give Essendon much by moving the compo from 19 to 14 + Shiel

I feel like Essendon are going to do the Mckay deal for 750k × 5 and see what compo the AFL suggest. If they say thats Band 1 then i think Essendon will consider doing the same for Gresham

Pick 27, F2 and Shiel > Pick 19
Pick 27, F2 and Shiel ~ Pick 14

Ok so based on this your saying we get two seconds round picks say 27 this year and lets say 28 next year along with Shiel, points wise that 1380 and Ess get Gresh and pick 14 which is 1161 which makes sense and I guess we could package that up to try and get back in to the first round again.

 

[Keystone agony]

From what I’ve seen it’s less of X club needs financial help and more of having more money is always better.

In reality I’d speculate that this whole situation has blown up out of a comedy of errors (Pretty pat for Essendon)

What I would guess happened is

Essendon: We’re shopping Sheil to see if any other Melbourne team wants him. He’d like to be on a contender and we’re happy to accommodate

St Kilda: We’re interested How about a 3rd round pick, but also you need to pay some of his salary

Essendon: if we’re paying a lot of his salary we want a second round pick.

Saints: Fine pay enough and that seems fair, we’ve got a spare one from the Gresham compo. You can have that.

Essendon: Wait that picks coming from us paying Gresham, could we still have it if we pay Gresham extra money and that makes it a first.

Saints: No if it’s a first we want it.

Essendon: if we don’t get it you can stay stuck with a 2nd

Saints: Were happy to pay Shiels contract and just give up pick 50 for him and keep pick 19 for Gresham compo. The only way you get pick 13 instead of 50 for him is if you make up the difference. The difference is pick 27, F2 swap F1s and you pay Shiels full salary next year and of course the extra 150k for Gresham

Thats what im saying if im the saints

 

[jdstorm]

It wont be made apart of other deals. The pick prior will be

We will see, as i said id be surprised if its all allowed but its hard one to prevent especially when you have 2 friends doing the deal

Incorperating it with the AFLs love child for their beat deal they could get for 5 is even more reason to not look at it

We dont know exaclty the behind the scenes of the Crows/Saints Dinstan/Crouch ploy. Maybe they advertised it too much and asked the wrong questions

There are many more moving parts since those days which make it harder to determine

The Crows deal was much sketchier and salary dump trades (ie Bowes )weren’t approved

That deal didn’t work independently as The Saints needed the cap space from the salary dump to be able to offer crouch the contract to get band1 compo.

Now days that ploy would work, you’d just need to involve a 3rd team to take on the salary.

Ie Saints salary dump with club X and then use Band 1 cap space to bid for crouch.

Club X just can’t be the team of the player you’re getting via FA.

This Saints Dons deal is simpler. Pick 13 for Sheil and a 2nd works independently and if pick 12 is traded then there’s no cross contamination between the trades.

Then saints get 1st round compo for Gresham. The AFL can’t set a players salary and essentially say sorry you’re not worth that much so a club can’t give you that deal. The AFLPA would riot.

The AFL also have to tell teams what compo a contract will trigger as part of the CBA. (That’s probably how this story got out)

If Essendon offer Gresham more then McKay (both are roughly the same age and level of productivity) then you can’t say that one player is worth band one and the other isn’t.

Yet now if McKay isn’t getting Band 1 then North get Shafted and coincidently now Clarko is complaining in the media about this so that’s probably been floated as a way to combat this.

@keystone

If Saints say they want to pay Sheil 800k they are bluffing. They look a chance at a decent finals run next season and they won’t want to use up 5% of their cap room on a player who has negative value at that price point.

 

[Keystone agony]

If Saints say they want to pay Sheil 800k they are bluffing. They look a chance at a decent finals run next season and they won’t want to use up 5% of their cap room on a player who has negative value at that price point

So what are you doing

1)Taking pick 50 for Shiel and have 150k more cap room
2) Keeping Shiel and have 150k more cap room
3) Getting pick 13 for Shiel, F2, 27, 150k extra salary lost for Gresham, Swap F1s
4) Countering

I see a clear best return for you

We (Stkilda) Preference;

1) where we get Pick 19 and Shiel for Gresham and Pick 50

Or

3) Shiel, Pick 27, F27, Swap F1s for Gresham

Which do you prefer? Pick 13 + Gresham or Gresham, 27, F2 and F1 goes 3 positions back potentially?

 

[jdstorm]

So what are you doing

1)Taking pick 50 for Shiel and 150k more cap room
2) Keeping Shiel and 150k more cap room
3) Getting pick 13 for Shiel, F2, 27, 150k extra salary lost for Gresham, Swap F1s
4) Countering

I see a clear best return for you

By scenario
1) No chance there’s got to be another Melbourne team interested in Sheil for free (expiring contract/sunk cost) willing to give up a 2nd or 3rd pick which at least have some value
2) Maybe, he’s a good pro and was solid as a HF last season.
3) This is way too much for the saints. We have all the math of what a players production is worth in a Wins per $ sense and how many $$$ a draft point is worth (seems to be about 500)

Doing a combined equation you can come to a fair deal and it’s not that. Pick 13 will be pick 19 after academy bids, FSs ect

Pick 19 in the open draft isn’t worth 2 2nd round picks a swap of firsts and Sheil. That’s insane overs

4) Counter: At most pick 19 will be worth 2 2nds. One from Essendon and Sheil (with an amount of his contract paid) representing the other.

 

[Keystone agony]

By scenario
1) No chance there’s got to be another Melbourne team interested in Sheil for free (expiring contract/sunk cost) willing to give up a 2nd or 3rd pick which at least have some value
2) Maybe, he’s a good pro and was solid as a HF last season.
3) This is way too much for the saints. We have all the math of what a players production is worth in a Wins per $ sense and how many $$$ a draft point is worth (seems to be about 500)

Doing a combined equation you can come to a fair deal and it’s not that. Pick 13 will be pick 19 after academy bids, FSs ect

Pick 19 in the open draft isn’t worth 2 2nd round picks a swap of firsts and Sheil. That’s insane overs

4) Counter: At most pick 19 will be worth 2 2nds. One from Essendon and Sheil (with an amount of his contract paid) representing the other.

You havnt told me which one youve picked

Youve rambled on

If this is how the deal communication is going to be, we can walk away now

Enjoy Gresham and we will enjoy pick 19

 

[jdstorm]

You havnt told me which one youve picked

Youve rambled on

If this is how the deal communication is going to be, we can walk away now

Enjoy Gresham and we will enjoy pick 19

I picked 4. Counter

Offer

Essendon receive: Pick 19 which is what pick 13 will be after academy bids and that is worth around 950 points.

Saints receive: Pick 27 (after a delay for bids is worth about 600-700points ) Sheil ( needing to be worth around 300 points aka pick 45) and some $$$ to cover some of Sheils salary to put the saints in front on the deal/offset compo they would have received)

That’s a win win for both teams. Saints get good value and Essednon get a 1st for Sheil.

 

[Keystone agony]

I picked 4. Counter

Offer

Essendon receive: Pick 19 which is what pick 13 will be after academy bids and that is worth around 950 points.

Saints receive: Pick 27 (after a delay for bids is worth about 600-700points ) Sheil ( needing to be worth around 300 points aka pick 45) and some $$$ to cover some of Sheils salary to put the saints in front on the deal/offset compo they would have received)

That’s a win win for both teams. Saints get good value and Essednon get a 1st for Sheil.

We (Stkilda) dont think its a great deal

We would rather Pick 19 over 27 and Shiel

Whilst getting you upto 13 from a 3rd rounder (Pick 50) for Shiel otherwise

We (Stkilda) would be scratching your back, but you arent scratching ours enough to do it.

The difference between 13 and 50 is far greater than the no benefit of 27 + Shiel over 19. Why are we the only ones helping the opposition here? This needs to be beneficial for both sides of the deal

We need more otherwise we will just take pick 19 as compo for Gresham

 

[Baker_for_PM]

I picked 4. Counter

Offer

Essendon receive: Pick 19 which is what pick 13 will be after academy bids and that is worth around 950 points.

Saints receive: Pick 27 (after a delay for bids is worth about 600-700points ) Sheil ( needing to be worth around 300 points aka pick 45) and some $$$ to cover some of Sheils salary to put the saints in front on the deal/offset compo they would have received)

That’s a win win for both teams. Saints get good value and Essednon get a 1st for Sheil.

I don't see that as a win win at all for us, instead we could just get the end of round 1 comp pick 19/20ish for Gresh and if we actually really want Shiel offer our pick 51 and just pay all the first year salary and not help out a rival club.
If your wanting to get that first round pick Gresh's worth in points without Shiel needs to be around the same value. Shiel is just the caveat to legitimise a deal where both clubs get a better outcome then the standard.

 

[jdstorm]

I don't see that as a win win at all for us, instead we could just get the end of round 1 comp pick 19/20ish for Gresh and if we actually really want Shiel offer our pick 51 and just pay all the first year salary and not help out a rival club.
If your wanting to get that first round pick Gresh's worth in points without Shiel needs to be around the same value. Shiel is just the caveat to legitimise a deal where both clubs get a better outcome then the standard.

Paying 5% of your total to a 31 year old mid with an injury history when you are trying to contend makes you smart?

Saying Sheil is only worth Pick 51 but also that your happy to pay him 800k this season is mind boggling to me.

Essendon has to, it’s a sunk cost. We signed him to a bad contract. No other smart team should want to pay him close to that amount.

It seems like you want to leverage this as a cap dump ie get a discount on a players cost to take on a bigger salary and I’m not sure why you’d want to do that. It’s dumb for you and Essendon is limited by list spots and not looking to bring in late draft picks so pick 51 has essentially Zero value to Essendon. They’d say no and everybody loses.