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January - Daily Punt

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Is there a tip going around that Typhoon Tracey will be unbeatable tonight?? Some serious money for it, TAB fixed odds its shortened into $1.95 from $2.40 and the price on everything else has drifted, thnk Whitefriars was $4 yesterday now out to $5.50, Ortensia was $6 out to $6.50. On the radio this morning Dean Lester tipped Ortensia, said he thinks its a better 1200m horse than the rest of the field, should be a good race anyway looking forward to it.
 
paul22 said:
Is there a tip going around that Typhoon Tracey will be unbeatable tonight?? Some serious money for it, TAB fixed odds its shortened into $1.95 from $2.40 and the price on everything else has drifted, thnk Whitefriars was $4 yesterday now out to $5.50, Ortensia was $6 out to $6.50. On the radio this morning Dean Lester tipped Ortensia, said he thinks its a better 1200m horse than the rest of the field, should be a good race anyway looking forward to it.
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If you want to have a little wager on the race, IAS Bet have a money back guarantee up to $100 if Typhoon Tracey runs second.

Centrebet also have promotion for a bet that can't lose for your first MV bet of tonight (only up to $20 though) - if your horse does lose, you'll get a free bet for caulfield next weekend.

I'll take TT at IAS Bet, she's 3/3 at this distance, and have a little saver on Ortensia at Centrebet.

Whitefriars worries me though :(
 

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KardiniaPark said:
Ill be on Ortensia. I think typhoon is a long way off a good thing, its a very good race. Didnt realise Ortensia was $6.50, I was going to jump into the $5 yesterday but forgot about it. :)
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Pace of the race will suit TT and certainly not Ortensia. Will be rattling home but just think the straight won't be long enough. TT is almost impossible to back against at MV over this distance on a dry track. Only see Whitefriars as the main danger.
 
Hoffy95 said:
Pace of the race will suit TT and certainly not Ortensia. Will be rattling home but just think the straight won't be long enough. TT is almost impossible to back against at MV over this distance on a dry track. Only see Whitefriars as the main danger.
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Pace will be no problem for Ortensia, she is going to be ridden close to the speed like she was in Hong Kong when getting beaten like 2.5 lengths by the best sprinters in the world behind Black Caviar. I have never been a fan of hers before nor have i backed her but will be going big on her to place tonight and a little less on her to win too
 
Hawks2009 said:
well thats just stupid betting, if you think a horse will win, it doesnt matter the odds. if you dont like the odds, dont bet. why people go looking for value when they think that another horse will win is beyond me.

Simple game, pick who you think will win, If you dont like the odds, dont bet. Why waste money betting on value if you dont think it will win. Dont convince yourself that because the other horse is value, that it can now win
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Thats no a smart idea imo, does the horse you think will win, win every time?
Typhoon Tracey probably should win tonight but are you telling me that if they put Whitefriars and Ortensia up at 20-1 each you wouldnt back them??

Or if you think Australia will win the cricket on Sunday but someone put England up at $4 you wouldnt back them?

I agree if you are extremely confident of a horse winning then dont back against them but you cant be like that in every race
 
The_Doctor said:
Thats no a smart idea imo, does the horse you think will win, win every time?
Typhoon Tracey probably should win tonight but are you telling me that if they put Whitefriars and Ortensia up at 20-1 each you wouldnt back them??

Or if you think Australia will win the cricket on Sunday but someone put England up at $4 you wouldnt back them?

I agree if you are extremely confident of a horse winning then dont back against them but you cant be like that in every race
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He is talking about it in the other sense...you shouldn't back something just because it is good value. You back whatever you think will win.

Therefore if you think Typhoon Tracey will win it shouldn't matter weather its paying $3 or $1.80.

Your looking at it from the wrong point of view....Nobody ever picks every winner. People who go for "value" just because something is short will loose in the long run 99/100.

If you like the favourite but it's too short for you, then you shouldn't have a bet. You shouldn't just back something because its got bigger odds.

If your just mucking around having a punt, all good. But if your punting every weekend you will end up a long way down if you just go for value.

If you see something as a great each way chance then go for it, but don't back something just because it is "value".

By the way on Typhoon Tracey at $2.40 tonight...think it should be too slick
 

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ECHUCABOY said:
He is talking about it in the other sense...you shouldn't back something just because it is good value. You back whatever you think will win.

Therefore if you think Typhoon Tracey will win it shouldn't matter weather its paying $3 or $1.80.

Your looking at it from the wrong point of view....Nobody ever picks every winner. People who go for "value" just because something is short will loose in the long run 99/100.

If you like the favourite but it's too short for you, then you shouldn't have a bet. You shouldn't just back something because its got bigger odds.

If your just mucking around having a punt, all good. But if your punting every weekend you will end up a long way down if you just go for value.

If you see something as a great each way chance then go for it, but don't back something just because it is "value".

By the way on Typhoon Tracey at $2.40 tonight...think it should be too slick
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I know what he is saying and it is ridiculous just like what you are saying. If Ortensia or Whitefriars was 20-1 tonight would you back them??
 
Rooster Cogburn said:
Nice.

2.00 when I got on. Into 1.80 now, 1.75 at some places
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It's the best horse in the race and the others aren't suited either by the track or distance...

Only question marks are over whether she has lost it or Undeniably is some sort of freak Valley horse....

Her performances over longer distances even though she hasn't been winning are still very very good...Looking forward to the race anyway, should be a cracker...

Really really like spacecraft as well...
 
The_Doctor said:
I know what he is saying and it is ridiculous just like what you are saying. If Ortensia or Whitefriars was 20-1 tonight would you back them??
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If I thought they could run in the top 3, then yes. They aren't 20-1 though and a horse of there ability and current form would never be 20-1..Your hypothetical odds are ridiculous..

Unless you are betting on multiple horses to win in each race to make a profit as a bookmaker or professional does because they are over the odds there is no point going for "value".
 

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No they are not they are making a point that value is important. Why bother backing them if you only think they can run top 3 and not win??? Why back multiple horses when there can only be 1 winner? Why not just back the horse you think will win?

This Soho syndrome must be contagious.
 
The_Doctor said:
No they are not they are making a point that value is important. Why bother backing them if you only think they can run top 3 and not win??? Why back multiple horses when there can only be 1 winner? Why not just back the horse you think will win?

This Soho syndrome must be contagious.
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Bookmakers will back multiple horses in a race to ensure they profit...FACT

This is the daily punt thread no argue about interpretation of value thread...I will stop clogging it up. I as your weekend sometimes once a month punter believe that if you back the horse you think will win and dont let the odds effect your decision that you will be better off in the long run...

Back to racing...
 
ECHUCABOY said:
Bookmakers will back multiple horses in a race to ensure they profit...FACT

This is the daily punt thread no argue about interpretation of value thread...I will stop clogging it up. I as your weekend sometimes once a month punter believe that if you back the horse you think will win and dont let the odds effect your decision that you will be better off in the long run...

Back to racing...
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Um no, that is the opposite of how to end up better in the long run
 

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January - Daily Punt

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