Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Trav 20]

Form in juniors does not automatically translate to seniors, just take Greene for example, barely made the Chargers and Metro squad and averages more than 25 possessions per game in debut season. Josh Toy the opposite, excelled and was considered a top 5 selection in juniors, has only played 5 games this year.
Cannot just automatically assume stuff like that.

I never assume anything. I use my judgment, which is obviously just an opinion.

You do realise that the OP's rankings is also entirely supposition ?

 

[Trav 20]

There's a bit of Brock McLean in Viney.

The Dees will get a solid player, but I don't think he will be a star.

Mclean is slow and Viney is fast.

McLean was predator and Viney is first dibs. People thought that McLean was inside, but he wasn't, although he's worked hard to improve that side of his game. Viney is as inside as you get.

Viney is far superior to McLean in every facet of the game.

Best not to embarrass yourself with such ill-considered views.

 

[Hard_to_Beat]

Trav, the absurd overrating of your junior players by yourself over recent years could fill a fricken 24 volume set of encyclopedias.

I'm happy with my analysis mate. Cheers.

 

[Trav 20]

Trav, the absurd overrating of your junior players by yourself over recent years could fill a fricken 24 volume set of encyclopedias.

I'm happy with my analysis mate. Cheers.

Rubbish.

And you don't provide an analysis. But I'd like to see it. Show it to me.

 

[saintsrfreak]

Just had a look at some of the kicking efficiency of this years midfielders. Maybe a sense of their decision making aswell based on TAC stats.

ORourke - 66%
Atkins - 62.5%
Vlastuin - 61%
Macrae - 60%
N.Graham - 60%
L.Hunter - 60% (maybe more a forward)
Whitfield - 56%
Ballard - 55%
Wines - 53.5%
Pongracic - 47%
Hrovat - 45.5%

I guess the real standout is ORourke here and the other end of the spectrum would be Wines and Hrovat.

Where do you get stats like this?

 

[Knightmare]

Is there much of a gap between Toumpas and Viney? If not surely GC would bid

Toumpas is generally preferred and might also appeal to Gold Coast not only because of his inside game but also because he has more flexibility and might immediately fit off a back flank where Gold Coast could do with some more immediate help.

Toumpas and Viney are different players, but the difference isn't all that great with that whole top 10 in my eyes being all pretty even.

We'll see what the clubs decide. Could still go either way.

Which would you compare to a Hurley type KM? Stringer or Jaksch? in build and versatility.

Stringer is certainly the stronger and more developed of the two with his very strong build. But Jaksch is more Hurley in that he can play both key forward and key defence well.
Stringer is more a Goddard type versatile where he can play key position if required but at the next level is probably more a midfielder/flanker but with a harder edge to him.

Cant wait for the draft, thanks a lot for your well informed opinions Knightmare about the younglings

Thanks for the kind words blaze.

Did you see much of Tom Hickey play this year, KM and if so, what did you think of him and particularly his ruckwork and also do you think he has the capabilities to play 70% up forward, in an AFL team, or is he much more likely to be suited to playing mainly in the ruck?

I'm guessing you saw his terrific game against your Pies at the 'G, (where he had 19 possies, 24 hitouts and 8 marks- many of them contested). That was the first time I saw him and I was super-impressed with his overhead marking (reminded me of McEvoy), in particular, but didn't pay that much attention to him outside of that, other than when he also kicked a couple of goals, from strong marks against us, a week or so later.

There's talk that we have offered him a 3 year deal and we need some quality back-up for McEvoy, so I'm wondering if he's likely to be able to eventually play in the same team with Mac (if we get him), or whether they would both be too lumbering and immobile to have them both playing together? McEvoy isn't really suited to playing forward, but I didn't pay close enough attention to Hickey to get a feeling if he would be or not.

I have seen Hickey play some this year. His best game by a fair stretch was the game you saw v Collingwood. He matched up against Cameron Wood on the day and it seemed Cam was playing the role of on field talent scout with the way he was allowing Hickey to play.

It was a real out of the box game from Hickey and I agree on the day his marking was very impressive and he backed it up with another reasonable performance v St Kilda the next week, both of which I expect will have grabbed St Kilda's attention.

I think Tom is still another 2-3 more seasons off developing into a genuine no.1 type ruckman. He is still young and as with most young talls he is still developing consistency to his game and needs plenty more time to develop physically and in a footballing capacity.

Tapwork is pretty reasonable and is often directed to a target but still not yet up to AFL standard and will by higher quality ruckmen get monstered - which is to be expected at this early stage. He is more your agile type ruckman with an above average leap. I haven't really seen him played as a forward for an extended period to have a feel for what he can do as a forward but projects more as a no.1 type ruckman when developed and this seems more where he is suited to playing at this stage.

I'd suggest if St Kilda are investing in Hickey he would more likely go into the depth/development group to have coming through behind McEvoy for the time being and come in as a potential replacement if McEvoy was to miss games for whatever reason just because that depth is at this stage pretty limited.

Amato looks like he will be an absolute steal. Runs all day, quite bulky for a 16 year old and has good skills. I also think he has grown a bit in height

I agree with your comments. I've liked Amato's game for some time and Amato was on my radar last year with some of his performances in the 2011 u18 champs. Could be a very good pickup late.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM noticed McRae has flown up your rankings and is just behind O'Rourke in your phantom draft now. Can you tell me what the differences between the two are. In the sun I think it said McRae needs to work on penetration with his kicking but you seem to think it is fine. Is McRae a bit more outside than O'Rourke and is one of them faster than the other? Thanks

O'Rourke is more an inside receiver. Think early career Chris Judd with that same pace and possibly better footskills but without that same strength or inside ballwinning ability. He can really burst away from stoppages and with that seperation he creates find some targets with his excellent footskills.

Macrae is more of an outside player at this stage. He has a real Pendlebury/elusive feel to his game where he seems to be playing a different game at a different pace and just has that extra time to dispose of the ball that few possess. At this stage he is a running, high production outside midfielder who uses it well by both hand and foot.

For both pace and footskills I'd be giving the edge to O'Rourke and while Macrae is well above average in both categories these are real sellingpoints in O'Rourke's game.

Why I have moved Macrae up in such a hurry is for a combination of reasons. Firstly the sheer rate of improvement is as good as any this season and has gone from some games early season where he might not get noticed to a player who is not only getting plenty of it but also is doing something meaningful with the ball every time. He in the finals series has even further lifted his output which is a great sign - showing that at AFL level on the big stage he should be able to perform. Additionally while his inside game is a relative unknown being that skinny outside player I'm very confident with a few years in the system that it can develop. The reason for this is like Pendlebury he not only has that more time to dispose of the ball but also in congestion uses it so well and has an unnatural 360 degree vision and ability to find players by hand he has no right to find and with these abilities, more size on his frame and with his willingness to attack the ball he can develop an elite inside game if he finds the right situation and is developed in a strong program.

I was pretty surprised in the TAC Cup grand final that Macrae's kick fell short. I've found he has been able to kick it 55m in the past so maybe the connection on that one kick wasn't up to his usual very high standards. Not something I'd be concerned with.

Tim McMillan and the ruckman Prowse who played yesterday, eligible this year? Draft range?

MacMillian is eligable this year if my notes are correct. He could be a late/rookie selection.

Prowse was eligable from last year. I haven't been as impressed as others have with his game but he could be one clubs look at as a rookie with ruck options reasonably limited this season.

 

[flipper83]

Thanks for all your work Knightmare, also wanted your opinion on Mayes. I was very keen on the Bulldogs picking him up at 5 but from the vision I've seen he seems to get most of his disposals by leading into space. I know he has speed and is a great kick but do you think his contested game is good enough to put him in the top few of this years draft and can he use his pace and kick in congestion?

 

[Knightmare]

Just had a look at some of the kicking efficiency of this years midfielders. Maybe a sense of their decision making aswell based on TAC stats.

ORourke - 66%
Atkins - 62.5%
Vlastuin - 61%
Macrae - 60%
N.Graham - 60%
L.Hunter - 60% (maybe more a forward)
Whitfield - 56%
Ballard - 55%
Wines - 53.5%
Pongracic - 47%
Hrovat - 45.5%

I guess the real standout is ORourke here and the other end of the spectrum would be Wines and Hrovat.

Would love to know where to find these stats also.

For me these stats in many ways demonstrate where these players find their footy.

O'Rourke despite being inside really bursts away from packs and then kicks and because of the seperation he creates he has the ability to find his targets at a higher % than these others.

Hrovat/Pongracic on the other side of the spectrum get so much of it in close and with this consistent pressure and limited space to dispose of the ball and because of this have a much lower kicking efficiency despite both being very reasonable kicks.

The OP likes Lucas Cook, who I've seen a lot of. We disagree again, which is fine.

To be honest I'm not a huge Lucas Cook fan. I had him going at pick 50 and I had him in my late 50s in my power rankings (not including the prelisted talent). And my view on him hasn't changed.

While athletic and quick on the lead I've never found him to be much of a marking presence. Not a contested marking presence. Just gets outmarked too easily. Doesn't win 1v1s - mostly relying on athletisicm to have any effect. Then with the thin build I'm just not sure what he develops into. Just not enough substance to his game.

As a rookie type selection for a club looking for a full forward perhaps could be an ok option in the right program but I wouldn't be recommending clubs to pay more.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for all your work Knightmare, also wanted your opinion on Mayes. I was very keen on the Bulldogs picking him up at 5 but from the vision I've seen he seems to get most of his disposals by leading into space. I know he has speed and is a great kick but do you think his contested game is good enough to put him in the top few of this years draft and can he use his pace and kick in congestion?

Mayes is more someone I see making the grade on a stronger type team where he can learn off the higher level midfielders.

Think along the lines of what we have seen with Dangerfield/Beams where they have started as forwards and later become full time midfielders. I'm not suggesting Mayes develops into this level player but I expect a similar move at a similar stage.

Very good finisher near goal and good playmaker with his footskills - finding targets inside 50.

I'm not convinced with his inside game and it's certainly not there yet and that is the risk you take with Mayes because unlike others he doesn't have that established midfield game yet. But as a Steve Johnson type forward who can later in his career push up into the midfield I can see Mayes having some success with time.

Kicking in congestion good in tight. Has shown with limitied time + space he can finish up forward and through the midfield at times while he probably hasn't found himself in these situations in enough of the games I've seen of him he seems reasonably capable by foot in tight.

 

[Chris25]

I'm not convinced with his inside game and it's certainly not there yet and that is the risk you take with Mayes because unlike others he doesn't have that established midfield game yet. But as a Steve Johnson type forward who can later in his career push up into the midfield I can see Mayes having some success with time.

What you have to remember is that Mayes is playing against men. Other than the U18 Championships, 14 of his 16 games this season have been in the seniors for North Adelaide (the two others were in the reserves). So you can't really judge his inside ability on those games - because as an 18 year old, his value to the North Adelaide team is definitely more as a half forward pushing up to a wing than a genuine inside midfielder. And ultimately, playing league in whatever position is going to do more for his development than dominating against kids his own age.

Playing for SA in the Championships for example, his inside game was very good. Half of his possessions would have been contested, and he was one of our better clearance winners. He didn't get the same level of attention after this Championships, but he showed excellent signs for the future. So when he has done it, he has done it well.

In terms of this years draft pool, Sam Mayes and Jackson Macrae are probably quite comparable. But I'd take a guy who has been performing against men, over a guy dominating against kids.

 

[year of the roo]

What you have to remember is that Mayes is playing against men. Other than the U18 Championships, 14 of his 16 games this season have been in the seniors for North Adelaide (the two others were in the reserves). So you can't really judge his inside ability on those games - because as an 18 year old, his value to the North Adelaide team is definitely more as a half forward pushing up to a wing than a genuine inside midfielder. And ultimately, playing league in whatever position is going to do more for his development than dominating against kids his own age.

Playing for SA in the Championships for example, his inside game was very good. Half of his possessions would have been contested, and he was one of our better clearance winners. He didn't get the same level of attention after this Championships, but he showed excellent signs for the future. So when he has done it, he has done it well.

In terms of this years draft pool, Sam Mayes and Jackson Macrae are probably quite comparable. But I'd take a guy who has been performing against men, over a guy dominating against kids.

I'm staggered that you would favour the South Australian over the Victorian.

 

[Chris25]

I'm staggered that you would favour the South Australian over the Victorian.

Someone needs to be the voice of reason amongst all the Victorian posters.

 

[ploppy]

I'm staggered that you would favour the South Australian over the Victorian.

Ive been following Mayes in the finals he was good against the eagles but pretty quiet this week against centrals and missed a couple of easy goals. I was kind of expecting more from him.

 

[Slattery_20]

Firstly, where's the "het" ?

Secondly, Viney just has a manic approach to the footy. He has the type of approach that can't be taught. It can be improved, but not replicated. A lot of players try and emulate Joel Selwood's ruthless attack on the footy, but they can't. Selwood had it in juniors and it translated to AFL. It usually does.

No-one's denying that, just saying the likes of Sam Lonergan (Shane Tuck, Matt Boyd) have that as well - doesn't mean they're superstars, because they just don't do a lot with it (compare that to a Jobe Watson or Sam Mitchell who have added skill away from the bottom of the pack).
Only part of the game, even for an inside mid you need to do something else to really excel.

Greene is a really good player, but I disagree that he'll be as good an inside mid as Viney. The OP disagrees, which is fine.

Might well be right, but I would still say Greene maybe (with a bit of extra height, a bit of extra pace) has a bit more upside than Viney. That might be what KM's driving at.
It's not just about winning it, it's about doing something with it.

 

[fronkalicious]

Hi knightmare. Do you think pick 5 & 6 for the 2 mini-draft picks is a fair deal or do you think gws should throw in a little extra as well (perhaps a pick upgrade)? Would you do that and take Martin and hogan if you're the dogs?

 

[Stylo]

Hey KM, firstly thanks for all your work in here, it's always great and very insightful reading your thoughts

My interest in whom Richmond will take will take with pick 9 has died down recently because I'm confident we'll get a potential star and there are probably 10 different players I'd be happy with at that selection.

So my interest has grown in who we might take with our two 2nd rounders.

After watching the TAC Cup GF the other day, I'm very keen on Nick Graham and Tim Membrey, both fill needs for the Tigers and looked a class above. What are the chances of those two being available for our picks 29 and 31? Are they likely to go much earlier?

Also, how do you rate Ollie Wines and Nick Vlastuin head to head? Which would you pick given the choice?

 

[aussierulesrules]

.
I have seen Hickey play some this year....

Cheers again KM. Yeah I wouldn't expect him to come in and go bang next year (if we get him), especially since he's apparently only been playing the game since 2009 and Sunny, on the GC board, for instance, said he really wasn't ready to play senior footy this year even, but was needed, due to all their other injuries. Glad to hear you say (if we get him) that he has a leap, though, as Mac kind of struggles to get off the ground! Rhys Stanley can actually be far more effective in the centre bounces than him, due to his huge leap.

BTW, if Goddard leaves (on say, $800K+), there seems to be a fair bit of conjecture as to whether we would get a compo pick immediately after our first round pick, or a compo pick at the end of the first round. What is your understanding of how that is likely to work?

 

[saintsrfreak]

Could Jaksch be likened to Daniel Merret?

 

[blueiris]

Cheers again KM. Yeah I wouldn't expect him to come in and go bang next year (if we get him), especially since he's apparently only been playing the game since 2009 and Sunny, on the GC board, for instance, said he really wasn't ready to play senior footy this year even, but was needed, due to all their other injuries. Glad to hear you say (if we get him) that he has a leap, though, as Mac kind of struggles to get off the ground! Rhys Stanley can actually be far more effective in the centre bounces than him, due to his huge leap.

BTW, if Goddard leaves (on say, $800K+), there seems to be a fair bit of conjecture as to whether we would get a compo pick immediately after our first round pick, or a compo pick at the end of the first round. What is your understanding of how that is likely to work?

It isn't the same as GWS or Gold Coast compo picks and it's up to the AFL on how they rate where the pick could be so could be anywhere

 

[TheLastEmperor]

It isn't the same as GWS or Gold Coast compo picks and it's up to the AFL on how they rate where the pick could be so could be anywhere

Its much simpler than that. There are five grades of FA compensation;
First round pick
End of first round pick
Second round pick
End of second round pick
Third round pick

With that in mind and considering where St Kilda finished on the ladder the Goddard compensation would likely be pick 13 (pick after first round pick) or possibly pick 24 (end of first round pick).

 

[Knightmare]

Hi knightmare. Do you think pick 5 & 6 for the 2 mini-draft picks is a fair deal or do you think gws should throw in a little extra as well (perhaps a pick upgrade)? Would you do that and take Martin and hogan if you're the dogs?

It will come down to whether Gold Coast or Melbourne bid. If Melbourne bid either of pick 3/4 then they should get that first minidraft selection.

Pick 5+6 is probably about what should be spent but as with anything best deal wins.

More likely for the Dogs is pick 6 gets minidraft pick 2, but pick 1 will be difficult to get with Gold Coast and Melbourne with the higher draft selections.

Hey KM, firstly thanks for all your work in here, it's always great and very insightful reading your thoughts

My interest in whom Richmond will take will take with pick 9 has died down recently because I'm confident we'll get a potential star and there are probably 10 different players I'd be happy with at that selection.

So my interest has grown in who we might take with our two 2nd rounders.

After watching the TAC Cup GF the other day, I'm very keen on Nick Graham and Tim Membrey, both fill needs for the Tigers and looked a class above. What are the chances of those two being available for our picks 29 and 31? Are they likely to go much earlier?

Also, how do you rate Ollie Wines and Nick Vlastuin head to head? Which would you pick given the choice?

Thanks for the kind words.

In the second reound Graham + Membrey could be fits if available. Their draft stocks of late have both risen. Membrey possibly to an even greater extent - looking like a top 20 selection with the way he finished the season. I'm increasingly thinking both could be gone by that stage. One of Lonergan or Pongracic could be available. Nathan Wright maybe. Tim Broomhead, Rory Atkins and Josh Simpson should also be considered.
Never entirely clear after probably the top 15 who will still be available when, but these are some to think about and could be among those considered in this range by Richmond.

I'd favour Wines over Vlastuin. Wins more of it. Both have similar games but Wines does a couple of things to a slightly higher level and of the two has the slightly more complete inside game. Wines for me but Vlastuin also looks like a very solid pro.

BTW, if Goddard leaves (on say, $800K+), there seems to be a fair bit of conjecture as to whether we would get a compo pick immediately after our first round pick, or a compo pick at the end of the first round. What is your understanding of how that is likely to work?

I'd assume the maximum first round compensation for Goddard but at his age maybe the end of first round selection is considered by the AFL.

My understanding is that this is on a case by case basis so we'll see what the AFL decide and how generous they are in their compensation.

Could Jaksch be likened to Daniel Merret?

Pretty different. Merrett is more powerful with Jaksch is more mobile and able to play more up the ground as well as deep.

 

[TerryWallet]

What do you think of this scenario?

Melbourne swap #4 to GWS for Jesse Hogan (with the understanding GWS don't bid on Viney)

Josh Caddy to Saints or NM (#12 or #14). just for interest sake, lets say Saints #12.

Gold Coast swap #2 and #12 to GWS for #4 and Jack Martin.

GWS use #1 and #2 on Whitfield and Grundy (who i think Sheedy and SOS would love to build a team around with Cameron and Patton. I really think Grundy and Whitfield would be their clear preferences in this draft )

Melbourne end up with #3, Hogan, #13 and Viney.

GC end up with #4, Martin while losing Caddy and #2.

GWS end up with #1, #2, and #12 (effectively gain #2 and #12 for their mini draftees)

StKilda end up with Caddy for #12




Everyone happy...........??

 

[Knightmare]

What do you think of this scenario?

Melbourne swap #4 to GWS for Jesse Hogan (with the understanding GWS don't bid on Viney)

Josh Caddy to Saints or NM (#12 or #14). just for interest sake, lets say Saints #12.

Gold Coast swap #2 and #12 to GWS for #4 and Jack Martin.

GWS use #1 and #2 on Whitfield and Grundy (who i think Sheedy and SOS would love to build a team around with Cameron and Patton)

Melbourne end up with #3, Hogan, #13 and Viney.


Everyone happy...........??

These big deals are never easy to execute and there will be plenty of counter-offering and arguing of the true value between teams.

I expect Gold Coast to receive a better deal for Caddy (Think pick 10 or better).

The minidraft selections probably don't receive that level of return.
If Gold Coast add minidraft pick 1 using pick 2 overall I expect GWS to give back the Adelaide compensation selection making it something closer to (pick 2 = Jack Martin + Adelaide 1st round compensation selection * pick 20).
If Melbourne add minidraft pick 2 using pick 4 GWS probably give back that second round selection (Pick 24).

GWS can probably get Whitfield and Grundy with picks 1+2 and add a something else with pick 4 and can probably just about finish their draft there. They have to reduce their list size so having 3 selections in the top 4 again might be an appealing result with maybe 1-2 free agent gets if there is someone they fancy.

This is only my interpretation of the values and I'm sure everyone will see it differently but I expect with each club and their respective situations each club would come out of it pretty happy.

 

[Stylo]

Cheers KM