Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Love your work as always Knightmare.

Interested to hear why you've got the Dogs taking so many small-medium mids/flankers (4/5 picks) - particularly when you've got key position players going around pretty much all of those picks. We stacked our list with a variety of these types last year, with all of McLean, Webb, Hamilton, Dale and Daniel coming through the main draft and already showing signs of being dominant in the VFL - Webb, Dale and McLean in particular, while Daniel showed his ability in the NAB Challenge (and probably would have debuted already if not for injury). Hamilton looks further away but gets to the right spots. Our other young mids have stood up very well early season as well - and all of Wallis, Liberatore, Bontempelli, Macrae and Dahlhaus look like permanent fixtures into the distant future. The likes of Jong, Honeychurch, Hrovat and Smith may also have parts to play.

Meanwhile we're still yet to be anywhere near sold on Morris' replacement as that third man up down back; Roughead can get found out one-on-one and on the lead against the better forwards and looks more comfortable zoning off on more sluggish, taller types; and we haven't seen enough of Talia (though he's playing well so far - will be interesting to see how he goes this weekend where Roughead likely awaits). Our developing types (Cordy, Hamling, Kelly, Roberts) are either undersized/not suited to genuine key defence or still quite a long way off.

Up forward we obviously expect Boyd to feature for many years to come but he needs support. Stringer is undersized and when forced to play as that taller, lead-out type his weaknesses shine through (particularly his set shot goal kicking). Crameri can play it to a reasonable level but Beveridge seems to want him much higher up the ground providing some pace and running power through the middle (and is much better as the third man in a taller forward setup anyway). Our other options are Cordy, Campbell or Redpath. The first two are ruckmen - one of which is unlikely to make it and the other a pretty average forward (and not complementary to Boyd at all). The latter has developed incredibly quickly but had an extremely low base and has not yet taken the next step - and may never. Any other options are being nurtured in alternative roles (Hamling, Roberts).

Do like the pick of Sullivan though - have really liked what I've seen of him and we certainly need to add another ruckman with Campbell no guarantee and Cordy...well, let's move on.

Not arguing that we shouldn't take any mids - we certainly still need to add a bit of pace and skill and depth is incredibly important. But the way I see it, as the midfielders I've already mentioned develop, they will form a pretty solid core with one or two genuinely elite types - yet the pieces at either end are far from set in stone. I expect us to fade out as the year goes on - but given our rapid development and the way Beveridge has this young, incomplete side playing already, I don't think we'll be looking at too many genuine top picks after this year. I think it's extremely important we start to fill in those gaps now.

 

[Knightmare]

Love your work as always Knightmare.

Interested to hear why you've got the Dogs taking so many small-medium mids/flankers (4/5 picks) - particularly when you've got key position players going around pretty much all of those picks. We stacked our list with a variety of these types last year, with all of McLean, Webb, Hamilton, Dale and Daniel coming through the main draft and already showing signs of being dominant in the VFL - Webb, Dale and McLean in particular, while Daniel showed his ability in the NAB Challenge (and probably would have debuted already if not for injury). Hamilton looks further away but gets to the right spots. Our other young mids have stood up very well early season as well - and all of Wallis, Liberatore, Bontempelli, Macrae and Dahlhaus look like permanent fixtures into the distant future. The likes of Jong, Honeychurch, Hrovat and Smith may also have parts to play.

Meanwhile we're still yet to be anywhere near sold on Morris' replacement as that third man up down back; Roughead can get found out one-on-one and on the lead against the better forwards and looks more comfortable zoning off on more sluggish, taller types; and we haven't seen enough of Talia (though he's playing well so far - will be interesting to see how he goes this weekend where Roughead likely awaits). Our developing types (Cordy, Hamling, Kelly, Roberts) are either undersized/not suited to genuine key defence or still quite a long way off.

Up forward we obviously expect Boyd to feature for many years to come but he needs support. Stringer is undersized and when forced to play as that taller, lead-out type his weaknesses shine through (particularly his set shot goal kicking). Crameri can play it to a reasonable level but Beveridge seems to want him much higher up the ground providing some pace and running power through the middle (and is much better as the third man in a taller forward setup anyway). Our other options are Cordy, Campbell or Redpath. The first two are ruckmen - one of which is unlikely to make it and the other a pretty average forward (and not complementary to Boyd at all). The latter has developed incredibly quickly but had an extremely low base and has not yet taken the next step - and may never. Any other options are being nurtured in alternative roles (Hamling, Roberts).

Do like the pick of Sullivan though - have really liked what I've seen of him and we certainly need to add another ruckman with Campbell no guarantee and Cordy...well, let's move on.

Not arguing that we shouldn't take any mids - we certainly still need to add a bit of pace and skill and depth is incredibly important. But the way I see it, as the midfielders I've already mentioned develop, they will form a pretty solid core with one or two genuinely elite types - yet the pieces at either end are far from set in stone. I expect us to fade out as the year goes on - but given our rapid development and the way Beveridge has this young, incomplete side playing already, I don't think we'll be looking at too many genuine top picks after this year. I think it's extremely important we start to fill in those gaps now.

Regarding the phantom draft specifically. I'm just for now throwing guys into their rough ranges and creating awareness of some of those who could feature in the draft as opposed to matching needs with clubs. So don't put too much stock into who I have the Dogs taking today as that will next update again be totally different.

I've been watching the Dogs with interest and Talia looks like a long term piece but we still need to see more. Roughead still has some convincing to do to be in my view deemed a long term player. Hamling I'm interested to see more of, he could possibly take over from Morris, or he could be tried in that role for a period.

If I'm looking at needs I'd be going talls first - key forwards and key defenders if guys project as long term players - even if Boyd is the long term forward, I'd like another genuine key forward even with Crameri and Stringer, then similar story down back if Talia is the key defender, I'd want another genuine key defender. Otherwise I'd be adding more ball users and guys with pace. And just keep it that simple - and look if possible to get height in each position with the Dogs starting to feel outside of a small few, small in more positions than is ideal. With those the holes I'm seeing that require rectifying. And I wouldn't just be looking towards the draft, maybe come free agency or trade week there is another opportunity that proves better. It's just about that superiority of talent, as best as can be practically achieved to fill those areas of relative list weakness.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Regarding the phantom draft specifically. I'm just for now throwing guys into their rough ranges and creating awareness of some of those who could feature in the draft as opposed to matching needs with clubs. So don't put too much stock into who I have the Dogs taking today as that will next update again be totally different.

I've been watching the Dogs with interest and Talia looks like a long term piece but we still need to see more. Roughead still has some convincing to do to be in my view deemed a long term player. Hamling I'm interested to see more of, he could possibly take over from Morris, or he could be tried in that role for a period.

If I'm looking at needs I'd be going talls first - key forwards and key defenders if guys project as long term players - even if Boyd is the long term forward, I'd like another genuine key forward even with Crameri and Stringer, then similar story down back if Talia is the key defender, I'd want another genuine key defender. Otherwise I'd be adding more ball users and guys with pace. And just keep it that simple - and look if possible to get height in each position with the Dogs starting to feel outside of a small few, small in more positions than is ideal. With those the holes I'm seeing that require rectifying. And I wouldn't just be looking towards the draft, maybe come free agency or trade week there is another opportunity that proves better. It's just about that superiority of talent, as best as can be practically achieved to fill those areas of relative list weakness.

Fair comments - I agree with pretty much all of that.

My greatest worry is clear in a current-day case: Brisbane. I don't like where their side is at, with a midfield that should be dominant, an inexperienced defence and a borderline non-existent forward line. I worry about how they become competitive in two very difficult positions to fill in a short enough timespan to capitalise on their midfield talent. Disregard their current struggles as they're more related to lack of form and effort, but either way, I see it being exceptionally hard for them to bring in 2-4 key position players while their midfield is at its peak - cap space or not. Brisbane may prove me wrong (and I hope they do), but I'm concerned that, currently, that's the direction the Dogs are headed if they don't start developing some likely types in key positions. While I still have reservations about the trade (not so much the contract) Boyd coming in was a good first step - but we're not done yet. As it stands I'm not confident enough to lock in any of our key position players - ruckman included - for the next 5-10 years. Of course given I followed Boyd quite closely in his junior years I'm very bullish on him, but a lot will depend on his development and can't be considered a lock yet. The others have shown some ability, but not anywhere near enough to be certainties.

In terms of draft prospect names to target - Schache and Collins have caught my eye early as types that would fit us very well. Weitering and Weideman as options higher up in the draft. Come away with one or two of them plus a ruckman in either the main draft or rookie draft and I'd be ecstatic at this early point in the season.

I'm curious to find out how much you've seen of Campbell and what you think of him, also. His AFL form is hard to judge as he's not yet had a run at his preferred position, which makes it difficult. His tap work at both levels has been superb though.

 

[Knightmare]

Fair comments - I agree with pretty much all of that.

My greatest worry is clear in a current-day case: Brisbane. I don't like where their side is at, with a midfield that should be dominant, an inexperienced defence and a borderline non-existent forward line. I worry about how they become competitive in two very difficult positions to fill in a short enough timespan to capitalise on their midfield talent. Disregard their current struggles as they're more related to lack of form and effort, but either way, I see it being exceptionally hard for them to bring in 2-4 key position players while their midfield is at its peak - cap space or not. Brisbane may prove me wrong (and I hope they do), but I'm concerned that, currently, that's the direction the Dogs are headed if they don't start developing some likely types in key positions. While I still have reservations about the trade (not so much the contract) Boyd coming in was a good first step - but we're not done yet. As it stands I'm not confident enough to lock in any of our key position players - ruckman included - for the next 5-10 years. Of course given I followed Boyd quite closely in his junior years I'm very bullish on him, but a lot will depend on his development and can't be considered a lock yet. The others have shown some ability, but not anywhere near enough to be certainties.

In terms of draft prospect names to target - Schache and Collins have caught my eye early as types that would fit us very well. Weitering and Weideman as options higher up in the draft. Come away with one or two of them plus a ruckman in either the main draft or rookie draft and I'd be ecstatic at this early point in the season.

I'm curious to find out how much you've seen of Campbell and what you think of him, also. His AFL form is hard to judge as he's not yet had a run at his preferred position, which makes it difficult. His tap work at both levels has been superb though.

Tom Campbell is one I've grown last year to really like in the VFL and post-Minson I feel has a real chance to second that number one ruck position and become a pretty reasonable replacement. But as you said until you've seen him get those senior opportunities you just don't know.

I agree with your assessment of the Dogs looking very similar in makeup to Brisbane with the gun midfield and no relevant key position players. I see the same situation occurring with both teams. Maybe GWS fall out of love with Patton after Cameron McCarthy has gone past him this year as Jeremy Cameron's partner in the front half. Maybe Levi Casboult can be had, or a Charlie Dixon. Reece McKenzie at Richmond? I can dream. But those kinds of guys in combination with Boyd, I'd really like to see that.
Then down back a Jack Frost at Collingwood may be gettable if Collingwood insist on using Reid and Moore as key defenders along with Brown. Maybe you pay to get Alex Rance. Mitch Brown (ex Geelong) showed plenty during the preseason for Essendon and could be a pretty easy fit at centre half back as more your rebounding key defender. Michael Hartley in the VFL would be sufficient as a stop gap at full back as a stopper.
Otherwise it's lots of hoping someone good falls out of favour and becomes available, or going to the draft again which will take time as you'll find with Boyd who probably similar to Hawkins just due to the fact that he is a power forward, it's going to take time for him to become that go to guy.
So there are always options.

But with talls it's about bringing in the quality rather than quantity. It's no good having a bunch of depth bigs, when you don't have any who can play. It just takes up list positions. Whereas those talls who can really play, they'll make a difference to winning which is objectively what you want in as many positions as possible.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Tom Campbell is one I've grown last year to really like in the VFL and post-Minson I feel has a real chance to second that number one ruck position and become a pretty reasonable replacement. But as you said until you've seen him get those senior opportunities you just don't know.

I agree with your assessment of the Dogs looking very similar in makeup to Brisbane with the gun midfield and no relevant key position players. I see the same situation occurring with both teams. Maybe GWS fall out of love with Patton after Cameron McCarthy has gone past him this year as Jeremy Cameron's partner in the front half. Maybe Levi Casboult can be had, or a Charlie Dixon. Reece McKenzie at Richmond? I can dream. But those kinds of guys in combination with Boyd, I'd really like to see that.
Then down back a Jack Frost at Collingwood may be gettable if Collingwood insist on using Reid and Moore as key defenders along with Brown. Maybe you pay to get Alex Rance. Mitch Brown (ex Geelong) showed plenty during the preseason for Essendon and could be a pretty easy fit at centre half back as more your rebounding key defender. Michael Hartley in the VFL would be sufficient as a stop gap at full back as a stopper.
Otherwise it's lots of hoping someone good falls out of favour and becomes available, or going to the draft again which will take time as you'll find with Boyd who probably similar to Hawkins just due to the fact that he is a power forward, it's going to take time for him to become that go to guy.
So there are always options.

But with talls it's about bringing in the quality rather than quantity. It's no good having a bunch of depth bigs, when you don't have any who can play. It just takes up list positions. Whereas those talls who can really play, they'll make a difference to winning which is objectively what you want in as many positions as possible.

Thanks. Many of us are hopeful we get a chance to see Campbell in action at some stage this year but with Minson on his way to returning to best form it seems unlikely.

Some interesting options there. I don't think we'll be seeing Patton in Dogs colours - from my understanding despite it being close the year prior we did our dash with our treatment of him after he did his knee again. We tried Casboult last year before Boyd came across (supposedly offered him more than the Blues did) but he decided to stay put - could be an option but I'm not a huge fan. Dixon would interest me but injury history is a concern. McKenzie I very much liked last year - will be interesting to see how he develops. Tom Lynch is the guy I'd love to bring over but seems very much entrenched in that Gold Coast list and can't imagine him moving. Of more realistic targets, Josh Walker is one guy I'd be right into if looking for that more short-term option next to Boyd, while still maintaining some future scope for improvement. Jarrad Redden is a left-field choice but I rate him both in the ruck and up forward; he would keep Boyd out of the ruck too - a big plus. Mason Wood I love but perhaps not what we're looking for. Fraser McInnes I don't mind but would be the target of a very low asset trade.

Frost looks a very good player but I'm not quite sold on how he complements Talia - a Frost and Talia combo would still struggle to handle the genuine power forwards. Rance would make me extremely happy but I wouldn't be confident in getting him to the Dogs at all. Brown did look competent but I'm not quite sure he's what we need. Hartley's a guy I like. Of other options, many Dogs supporters are foaming at the mouth with Carlisle delaying contract talks and being a lifelong, rabid Dogs fan but I doubt that's ever going to happen, as much as he'd be great. I think Todd Elton is worth a look, personally.

If we decide to look for a more advanced ruckman, Redden (as already mentioned) and Andrew Phillips are the two I'd have my eye on that could potentially seek a bit more opportunity and are talented.

Realistically though unless we attract a relatively big name (which, realistically, is unlikely), not many of these options fill me with too much excitement. I'd like to look to some of these lesser lights with conservative trades and then target a couple of the quality key position types in the draft.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Hey Knightmare, fantastic work as usual.

West Coast are still looking for that 190+cm, big bodied, clearance machine mid with leadership ability who they can build their team around. The Fyfe, Kennedy, Pendles and now Bontempellli type.

I believe West Coasts pick will be somewhere between picks 2 to 8. Can you give me a handful of players you have that fit my description and will be in that range come draft day who I can keep an eye on during the year?

Much appreciated

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, fantastic work as usual.

West Coast are still looking for that 190+cm, big bodied, clearance machine mid with leadership ability who they can build their team around. The Fyfe, Kennedy, Pendles and now Bontempellli type.

I believe West Coasts pick will be somewhere between picks 2 to 8. Can you give me a handful of players you have that fit my description and will be in that range come draft day who I can keep an eye on during the year?

Much appreciated

If looking 190cm+ you've only really got Gregory Clark (WA - Mid) who is more a second rounder.

Otherwise the others who can go first round are sub 190cm.

If you're looking talent and guys who are more mid 180cm Callum Ah Chee, Harley Balic and Ryan Clarke are some really good ones. Darcy Tucker for outside pace is another. They're the types of guys first round West Coast would be looking at.

 

[Lana]

I'm sure I ask you this every year, but who are the likely medium forwards who won't move into the midfield at AFL level.
Similarly who are the likely small forward prospects that will play that role at AFL level.

 

[Libba21]

Sam Weideman could he be a Bolter? Looked really good agaist the Northern Blues. Any chance going top 5 if he keeps up his good form?

 

[Knightmare]

I'm sure I ask you this every year, but who are the likely medium forwards who won't move into the midfield at AFL level.
Similarly who are the likely small forward prospects that will play that role at AFL level.

The dynamic in the AFL at the moment is an interesting one where even your dedicated full time small forwards are now becoming part time midfielders. Who saw Eddie Betts becoming a midfielder this year.

Callum Ah Chee is one who could be a permanent forward at the next level. He can play midfield, but at this stage just simply looks best up forward. I'd say similar though to a lesser extent with Balic.

On those more definite forward only types.

Ryan Burton as a tall lead-up forward has that feel where while I haven't seen him elsewhere, he is a natural forward and can spend his career forward in that role. Kieran Agius is another where perhaps he could become a midfielder, but he is a natural forward and can spend his career forward.

Blake Hardwick as a smaller forward is another that comes to mind. Not a crumbing forward but none the less a volume goalkicker who just finds a lot of it forward of centre.

Brendan Dew as a sub 180cm could be a permanent forward at AFL level.

Nick Dodge as a small is a permanent and natural forward from the games I've seen.

Riley Bonner until I see him anywhere else is a forward who can do damage.

Dan Houston as a medium forward has ability and can hit the scoreboard in bunches.

Kieran Malone as a medium pressure forward probably remains forward.

Hisham Kerbatieh as a small has talent.

And on the extreme small side of the spectrum Nicholas Pavlou, Leigh Spiteri and Vinnie Rocca are some others as sub 175cms.

Sam Weideman could he be a Bolter? Looked really good agaist the Northern Blues. Any chance going top 5 if he keeps up his good form?

Weideman can go early. Has the pedigree, nice height and size, strong overhead and can be a genuine target up forward. He could go top 5. He could go second round. He has shown great signs in his games for AIS but then in the TAC Cup he has played second fiddle to the smaller Hardwick so I wouldn't be conclusively calling him a top 5 pick either or first rounder for that matter. So we'll have to collect more information over the course of the season as to where he fits relative to the other talents.

 

[redandblack]

The Star Search (Rising Star) nomination for the SANFL this week should be Will Snelling, after an 18 possession, 9 tackles and a goal in his first senior game.

Interesting first SANFL game also by Errin Wasley-Black, overlooked previously. He looked a natural and showed elite kicking skills.

 

[Knightmare]

The Star Search (Rising Star) nomination for the SANFL this week should be Will Snelling, after an 18 possession, 9 tackles and a goal in his first senior game.

Interesting first SANFL game also by Errin Wasley-Black, overlooked previously. He looked a natural and showed elite kicking skills.

Interesting you say Wasley-Black. Having seen some of his NEAFL games last year. That was for me the absent element to his game. He can rack up the ball on the outside and down back and provide some really good run, but his footskills the more I watched him for NT Thunder, it was just atrocious as to how badly he struggled by foot. I hope desperately he has cleaned up his kicking, because that was the really badly missing element that for me stopped him from getting drafted - just so many horribly sprayed kicks. So I'd be cautious in that element of your evaluation of his game and keep a tab of that in future watch-throughs.

Thanks for the SA updates. Appreciate it. Keep them coming!

 

[Skippos]

Knighta, just one or two for you

Jordan Dawson - Sturt - 187.5/80 - 9/4/97... 8 goals 7 behinds in two SANFL reserves games already, averaging 12 touches, 7.5 marks and 3.5 contested marks a game. Was best for his team in the SA u/18 internal trial. Would be very surprised if he doesn't play league next week and beyond. Just an excellent player and one to keep your eyes on, I reckon.

Wayne Milera - Centrals - 184/74 - 14/9/97 ... already playing league footy. Indigenous mid/flanker. Worth watching. Haven't seen much of him but the fact that he's a raw, thin, indigenous 17 year old already playing league is enough to excite me.

 

[redandblack]

Interesting, KM, about Wasley-Black. He came to West Adelaide very unheralded, played internals at West, the coaches loved what they saw, he played the league trials and was really good in their first game against very good opposition. Takes the game on, has poise and, as I said, his kicking (left footer) has been outstanding.

Like you, I watched some of his NEAFL games on TV and thought he needed to improve in several areas. He has. I think you'd be rightly surprised at his improvement.

I also agree about the two mentioned by Skippos.

This is one of those years for juniors at West Adelaide, certainly the best crop since the Cooney, Waters, Porplyzia year. I'll keep an eye on Agostino, Haysman, Snelling and Francis as the year goes on.

 

[jjami15]

Knightmare, firstly, love your hard work and getting info out to the masses. Apologise if you e already gone over it but would you be able to go into detail about a few players for me. Obviously, we have no spine and was wanting to know more about Schache and Weideman as they seem to be the top KPF forward at the moment. I remember reading that Schache is similar to Petrie in style and was wondering if he is more you FF or CHF and if there are any knocks on him? In regards to Weideman what would his description be like and again is he more of FF or CHF? Lastly is there a prospective FB that has the body shape to grow into so as to take the monster FF's in this draft and where they possibly would range pick wise? Understand that it's a long season and a lot to be played out but we really do need to generate some picks in the first round to get our hands on some of the elite KPP's in this draft. Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, firstly, love your hard work and getting info out to the masses. Apologise if you e already gone over it but would you be able to go into detail about a few players for me. Obviously, we have no spine and was wanting to know more about Schache and Weideman as they seem to be the top KPF forward at the moment. I remember reading that Schache is similar to Petrie in style and was wondering if he is more you FF or CHF and if there are any knocks on him? In regards to Weideman what would his description be like and again is he more of FF or CHF? Lastly is there a prospective FB that has the body shape to grow into so as to take the monster FF's in this draft and where they possibly would range pick wise? Understand that it's a long season and a lot to be played out but we really do need to generate some picks in the first round to get our hands on some of the elite KPP's in this draft. Cheers

I'll need to find the time over the coming weeks to get the bios up to go into the level of detail I'd like.

I did a week back I did compare Schache to Petrie as a rough this would be a good outcome.

Both Schache and Weideman are tall, big marking forwards. Both can take a contested grab and both are your deep, power marking forwards. Schache's endurance is the better of the two so he can play more up the field if required with Weideman more restricted to playing deep.
Both can probably become more of a presence up forward and I'd like to see them both play with more of a physicality.
From a goalkicking standpoint, both can hit the scoreboard. Schache is the more reliable of the two with Weideman's conversion not good enough at this point.

With the backs. The rebounders are the better ones at this stage with Weitering, Collins and J.Watson all rebounders first and not super tall either. Sam Skinner could possibly be a stopper with that more his game, just the question is whether he is good enough. Perhaps some other options become obvious over the course of the season.

If looking for a full back who can play as a stopper. Michael Hartley from the VFL showed he can fill that role last year and probably do so to an AFL standard if given the chance.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

How would you compare H Balic to Mitch Antonio Knightmare ?

I watched H Balic on video and seen Mitch live last two weeks.

I believe Mitch is a better footballer all round, they both play similar types but Mitch tends to rise to the occasion more.

 

[Juda97]

Hey Knightmare, is T Cole a good prospect? Strengths weaknesses? Will he get picked up?

 

[Knightmare]

How would you compare H Balic to Mitch Antonio Knightmare ?

I watched H Balic on video and seen Mitch live last two weeks.

I believe Mitch is a better footballer all round, they both play similar types but Mitch tends to rise to the occasion more.

Antonio's scoreboard impact is big time to start the season and they offer much the same things as guys who can both hit the scoreboard, have athleticism, ability overhead and class with ball in hand.

But I do see Balic as being ahead in a few categories. From a physicality and aggressiveness perspective while not a ball winner, Balic is a guy who has a crack - he'll do the dirty work, smother, tackle and put his body on the line so he does have more than will show up on most highlight tapes. But in addition to that I also see his ball use and composure with ball in hand as being on another level relative to Antonio with Balic better in that regard as someone where you see that basketball play in his play which can really make you take note of his play at times.

I'm really looking forward to seeing Antonio through the u18 champs and seeing where he stacks up relative to the competition as he is for me one of WA's top prospects this year.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, is T Cole a good prospect? Strengths weaknesses? Will he get picked up?

Cole is a good prospect and with a strong year and continued ongoing improvement can be a first round selection at seasons end.

I believe he will get picked up, or he would if the draft was today. But we've got a season to play so he needs to produce and do all the right things to put himself in position to get drafted.

The quick assessment with Cole I'd say at this stage:

Strengths:
Production/performances on the board.
Reads it well down back and is an intercept marking threat.
Pretty good 1v1 and can probably continue to improve that area of his game.

Questionmarks:
Can he become a mid? Probably more a back flanker at this stage but if he can make that Heppell transition from back to more a mid and do both really well, that's the ultimate outcome.

Weaknesses:
Footskills - not terrible but not damaging and under pressure can at times struggle. As a back flanker you really need to be able to kick and kick really, really well and I don't see that with Cole.
Athleticism - ok but not a star athlete. it's not a point of difference for him and he plays a position/role where if you're not a star kick you need that pace and linebreaking ability.
Contested ball winning - he has a hard edge and has a crack and will put his body on the line, bump etc. but he needs to start winning his own ball beyond just being involved in general play/intercepting.

 

[Snoop Dog]

I've just watched West Adelaide defeat a strong Adelaide Reserves side, Adelaide played Scott Thompson, Podsiadly, Grigg, Martin, Matt Crouch and several other losted players.

All I can say is that everything said about Snelling, Haysman and Agostino was again underlined tiday. They were all excellent again.

One other point. It seems the AFL recruiters see something they don't like about Jonno Beech. All I saw was 3 goals, umpteen marks including hangers, 2 goals handed off and a best on ground performance.

Again.

yeah its hard to know whats the issue with Beech. Can go fwd and middle, great size and strong. Been v consistent to.

 

[Snoop Dog]

All excellent points.

Take G.W.S & Gold Coast for an example.....For the very reasons you have just adumbrated. I actually rate the G.W.S list as better than the Gold Coasts.

They have better key position players, more mature aged recruits & an excellent list of young gun mids....Gold Coast have almost no key position forwards other than Lynch....They have 8 gun kids who are almost all mids or outside flankers, with only ablett, Malceski, Harbrow & Rischitelli as experienced mature-bodied, hardened AFL heads.

G.W.S are miles in front of Gold Coast's list IMO for this very reason...They have Mumford, Griffen, Patfull, Shaw, Davis, Ward, Palmer & Scully. to teach & shore up the kids coming through....In 3 years time Ablett, Malceski & Rischitelli will be gone!...Zero forward planning & just crazy stuff.

Both of these clubs require a serious injection of hardened & mature AFL bodies over the next 3 seasons!

Yep thats right but copped some flak early.

Have a look at the kids they went for - mids, who could run, could run fast and generally v good by foot. if you watched that melb game the overlap run they got in that 2nd half was a good as I have seen. they will push some of the better clubs this year. For mine, Suns dont have that same run and pace but lets wait and see on Martin and OMeara.

On the mature side missing Buddy best thing that happened. Allowed them to hunt some v good players across the lines. Mumford has been outstanding, Patfull shores their back half up as does Shaw(and Mohr isnt far away as well), Griffen gives Call and the kids a better chop out. They are the real deal if they can hold onto all their 'stars'.

 

[Snoop Dog]

Knightmare good read and some interesting views.

Must say one of our kids down at GP McKay is an absolute ripping prospect and I would have him very high. Mark him down as my Lobb / Tippett prediction for this year. Keep an eye on De Bruin development as well. Coming from athletics background but he scope. Buykxx-Smith I think will also be pretty handy this year and could be late.

Couple of others I hear good things about are Ben Crocker and Jonty Scharenberg. Not sure I saw them on your list.

Bit more bullish on Weidemann than you are but not sure we will have our first pick this year so suspect its a mute point who Collingwood would take. Like you I rate Keays highly. Seen a lot of him and will be a high selection for sure.

As always I think a few kids with questionable skills and size get a touch over rated this time of year but that will sort itself out. Honeychurch is probably making a few people take notice of the smaller types though. Been terrific and good to see. Also a lot of mids being talked about and will need to wait til champs and then 2nd half of season to sort out an order.

Some interesting comments from you on the Pies. Dont go to pessimistic. They have a good plan down there and quite a bit of space to move with salary cap so bit of drafting / trading and nabbing a FA might elevate them and fix some of their issues sooner than people think. Essentially their issue is skill, intercept marking and decision making in the back half. In the middle its about 2nd possession out of a contest.

I am confident a fit Scharenberg, Reid sort those issues out along with a developing Darcy Moore. Those 3 fix a lot of those issues and along with Langdon provide a core to build around. In the middle they need Freeman, De Goey and Broomhead to get games. All are good in those areas and were recruited bc of it. We have no issue winning CP. Its our 2nd and 3rd possessions which kill us.

Anyway again well done.

 

[Knightmare]

Yep thats right but copped some flak early.

Have a look at the kids they went for - mids, who could run, could run fast and generally v good by foot. if you watched that melb game the overlap run they got in that 2nd half was a good as I have seen. they will push some of the better clubs this year. For mine, Suns dont have that same run and pace but lets wait and see on Martin and OMeara.

On the mature side missing Buddy best thing that happened. Allowed them to hunt some v good players across the lines. Mumford has been outstanding, Patfull shores their back half up as does Shaw(and Mohr isnt far away as well), Griffen gives Call and the kids a better chop out. They are the real deal if they can hold onto all their 'stars'.

On Gold Coast. They're an exceptionally strange team.

People of late have been talking about footskills and even pace as weaknesses but for me given the personnel they've got, while they're not showing it, those two categories they should league wide be the best in the competition in both areas.

For footskills they have: Malceski and McKenzie who are two of about 10-15 players in the competition I'd regard as elite kicks. And a large proportion of their best team I'd also regard as above average kicks - Ablett, O'Meara, Harbrow, Sexton, Bennell, Boston, Kolodjashnij, Wright, Matera, Hall, Garlett, Saad and Glenn.
For pace they have: O'Meara, Martin, Bennell, Shaw, Hall, Garlett all have elite speed - again I'd consider this the most on any AFL list league wide. To go with several others such as Swallow, Lemmens, Matera, Harbrow, Saad who are all above average by position for pace and then pretty much all their rucks and key position players who are well above average athletically by position.

I also hear complains from some regarding Gold Coast about their talls. But as rucks Nicholls and Zac Smith are both legit with Nicholls having the scope to be best 5, maybe best 3 in the competition by position. Then up forward Lynch up forward who can become a top 5 key forward in the game, Dixon who is a good target and presence inside the forward 50 and Wright who can be very good. Then Thompson and May down back both are excellent. So I don't have issue with their tall stocks, with their talls overall among probably the better 5-6 in the game for me.

I see Gold Coast as simplistically as in the way the 90s/00s Collingwood team was Nathan Buckley's show. Gold Coast similarly is Gary Ablett's show, where like with Buckley, he carries the burden of carrying the team on his shoulders every week of every season. My problem with Gold Coast is more from a midfield grunt perspective where they just don't have that quantity of quality of options as the better teams do, and without a healthy Ablett we're seeing just how bad that midfield is and how heavy the reliance on Ablett is. They're adding numbers through there still and Miller and Hallahan can be long term players, but I'm still not feeling the anyone taking the burden off Ablett. Prestia is productive and probably that second guy, David Swallow is pretty good and O'Meara if he didn't do his knee would be another. But they still for me need a more dominant second and third midfielder than they've got at the present time to be a top 4 team (with Ablett), or without Ablett to be even vaguely competitive.

--
On GWS, I know you're a sort of GWS fan Snoop. But I do have criticisms. From a drafting perspective I think GWS have been in the worse 1-3 in the comp since their inception given the position of their picks. And unlike Gold Coast who killed it with their zone selections, GWS didn't at all. But on the flip-side GWS did outside of securing that (star) Ablett level talent, GWS overall did significantly better in recruiting players from opposition lists going with some veterans, but really recruiting heavily those high level young players who can grow with the core group, whereas Gold Coast took guys more in their primes and more nearing 30 which for a group of 18 year olds isn't going to be ideal from a list build perspective, and that beyond the sheer quantity of extra first rounders GWS have been allowed to gain, that for me is the major difference.

From an overall midfield quality and midfield depth perspective that is where for me GWS are head and shoulders above Gold Coast. Additionally from a key position standpoint, GWS outside of Sydney are clearly that next best in the competition.

From a footskills and pace perspective though, while improving in those categories I look at GWS only as average.
There are so many non kickers on that team in Greene, Scully, Palmer, Shaw and Mumford who is the worst kick in the competition.
Then for pace outside of Pickett, Hampton, Palmer, Wilson, Sumner and Hoskin-Elliott, of which non of whom are top say 10 players on the GWS list for me, it's less than ideal.
But talking about the running dynamic overall the element that is positive to go with the overall midfield is the quality of endurance runners, with so many elite endurance runners - Whitfield, Kelly, Scully, then down back Shaw who with his in game I wouldn't say pace, but certainly meters gained through run and carry. That for me from a running perspective is where I see the relative positive.

--
Regarding both club's premiership windows I'm not as optimistic as many are.
Gold Coast may not even win a premiership with Ablett and they may not even have a contending team until Swallow/O'Meara/Lynch/Martin etc are in their late 20s due to the dynamic as mentioned above of being Ablett's team and him not having that level of midfield support that is required.
Then GWS I can't see that team contending before 2018, with a premiership far from a certainty for me before 2020 unless more good seasoned players are added over the next few seasons when the next high draft picks want to go home - let's say Patton or Shiel in a move to get a similar level win now talent to a Griffen or Mumford who are the level of talents that can get this type of team over the edge quicker.

It's all interesting to speculate about anyway.

Knightmare good read and some interesting views.

Must say one of our kids down at GP McKay is an absolute ripping prospect and I would have him very high. Mark him down as my Lobb / Tippett prediction for this year. Keep an eye on De Bruin development as well. Coming from athletics background but he scope. Buykxx-Smith I think will also be pretty handy this year and could be late.

Couple of others I hear good things about are Ben Crocker and Jonty Scharenberg. Not sure I saw them on your list.

Bit more bullish on Weidemann than you are but not sure we will have our first pick this year so suspect its a mute point who Collingwood would take. Like you I rate Keays highly. Seen a lot of him and will be a high selection for sure.

As always I think a few kids with questionable skills and size get a touch over rated this time of year but that will sort itself out. Honeychurch is probably making a few people take notice of the smaller types though. Been terrific and good to see. Also a lot of mids being talked about and will need to wait til champs and then 2nd half of season to sort out an order.

Some interesting comments from you on the Pies. Dont go to pessimistic. They have a good plan down there and quite a bit of space to move with salary cap so bit of drafting / trading and nabbing a FA might elevate them and fix some of their issues sooner than people think. Essentially their issue is skill, intercept marking and decision making in the back half. In the middle its about 2nd possession out of a contest.

I am confident a fit Scharenberg, Reid sort those issues out along with a developing Darcy Moore. Those 3 fix a lot of those issues and along with Langdon provide a core to build around. In the middle they need Freeman, De Goey and Broomhead to get games. All are good in those areas and were recruited bc of it. We have no issue winning CP. Its our 2nd and 3rd possessions which kill us.

Anyway again well done.

Will keep an eye out for McKay.

Ben Crocker I'm not a fan of personally. I've seen a lot of his games these past couple of seasons and I haven't walked away from many of his games all that impressed with what I've seen. His production last year was pretty good, but I'm not seeing that point of difference that puts him over the top, with his kicking nothing like Sam's, though unlike Sam at least to his credit he seems to have more of a crack. I'd be interested to hear your take on what I'm missing with Ben though.

Scharenberg isn't eligible this year, but next year I agree with you is a beauty.

Weideman for a lot of reasons hasn't sold me on his performances. His conversion in front of goal is not great with the 19 goals, 15 last year and 3 goals 2 so far this season through the TAC Cup. His endurance is poor as someone who can't really push up the ground at this point. He also for me hasn't shown that he is as much of a presence as he could be at his height and size, he just isn't bullying guys 1v1 to the level I'd like to see it.
But terrific pedigree, height, size, and contested marking ability so it's more a case of there is plenty to work with, but I'm just not so sold that I'd throw a first round, or in Collingwood's case a top few pick to get him.

The smalls are already starting to trick down by power rankings, and it's more a case of to this stage they're always the ones who have played better as 17 year olds and had the greater level of exposure. So I definitely agree with you there. Though there are several really good smalls. Gresham particularly has started the season with a point to prove.

On the Pies, I agree with you regarding the kicking out of the back half and also the second possession through the midfield. Really apt points. The other one for me that suggests we won't be functional until we get this piece, but that second key forward. Unless Reid plays forward or Moore overnight gained a couple of years of experience, our front half and Cloke particularly just won't be functional. And in addition to that the quality of passes coming into the forward 50 with the poor users through the midfield is that other key point that is making life really hard.
With all the quality veteran experience lost, I can't see Collingwood finishing better than 11th/12th as absolute best case scenarios.
We'll win some we shouldn't, and lose a lot of games that should be automatic wins, but with a young group, or the group we're using at the moment without the quality of footskills with such a heavy reliance on winning via tackling and creating turnovers, it's going to be hard week after week bring that energy to consistently get the 4 points week after week.
But I hope I'm wrong and the Pies make the top 8 and find a way to surprise me.

 

[Gmod23]

Agree with your write up of GWS. Not sure if Griff or the other established player can last to 2020 and their drafting has been really bad. Too many misses in the first round, they need to be clearing these failed first rounders for second rounders ASAP and hope their recruiting gets better. Not as bullish on their KPF as you, aside from Cameron.
Dogs, GC, Dees, all have some serious list issues, but one of them will win it 2018-2020.
Not bullish on Pies this year but can see them getting FA in and starting that climb up next year.