Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

KM who do you think might get picked up as 19yo's this year? Josh Minogue (Murray Bushies) and Michael Mattingly (Northern Knights) seem to go alright.

Mattingly was in the mix last year - previously from NSW and now playing for Northern. He's a productive and efficient back flanker/outside type. Not out of the question with a strong year he could be again in the mix for selection.

Minogue is a talented medium marking forward and has had a pretty solid first couple of rounds. Overager also and a first time TAC Cup goer. Will be interesting to see how he develops over the season and how far he can take his game.

So pick 2-3+Pick 19-20 going to be enough for Keays or do we need to throw in our third and fourths to make it fair?

Keays might only require Brisbane's first round selection, perhaps more if he has a strong season. Too early to say anything further other than he is a ripper - midfield or forward.

 

[eth-dog]

Knighter, I'm pretty sure Harvey isn't eligible this year but next (along with Matthew Neagle and Jett Bewick).

 

[Knightmare]

Knighter, I'm pretty sure Harvey isn't eligible this year but next (along with Matthew Neagle and Jett Bewick).

Harvey Daniher is an October 97 boy.

Those born in 1997 are eligible this year.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

How did the AIS academy guys go yday v Werribee? Any standouts?

 

[Crippa16]

Harvey Daniher is an October 97 boy.

Those born in 1997 are eligible this year.

Hey Knighter

How highly do you rate Matheison and Tucker ? how are they're decision-making and skills ? Do you think they'll both go top ten ?

 

[Knightmare]

How did the AIS academy guys go yday v Werribee? Any standouts?

Jacob Hopper (GWS - Academy) was probably B.O.G. The contested side of his game and tackling was a level above everyone else on the field. GWS I expect will be required to use their first round pick for him. He is seriously good and like Mills and Keays if they were in the draft proper he would be in the mix for pick one overall.

Ben Keays (Brisbane Academy) was probably that next best mid winning plenty of it and using it well.

O'Kearney as he does found plenty of it.

Parish has taken another step forward this year and is more a contested ball winner and more inside than he was last year which is exciting. Hopefully he can further develop the contested side of his game to a more dominant standard to rival some of the other top picks - as the outside elements of his game are terrific.

Francis from SA was terrific down back and is someone who could be picked at the back end of the first round I'd imagine.

Weitering very good and he played like a top 5/10 pick.

Weideman kicked a couple of goals as AIS' better target up front along with Schache.

Hey Knighter

How highly do you rate Matheison and Tucker ? how are they're decision-making and skills ? Do you think they'll both go top ten ?

Mathieson relatively struggles by foot and with his decision making, with that what lets him down. It terms of production and inside game, he has top 10 chances, but just needs that polish and consistency of ball use to get into the top 10. I see him probably more a 10-20 pick at this time and I see him with strong performance this season staying around about that point.

Tucker is a different player entirely. Exceptionally quick and has excellent linebreaking ability and ball use very good as well as his decision making, just with him, his inside game just is non existent at this stage. He is expected to go top 10 and quite possibly even top 5, but personally I'm not yet convinced I'd pay so heavily. In any case a definite first rounder if the draft happened today.

 

[Crippa16]

Thanks KM

Do you think that Tucker will develop an inside game this year ? Which mids do you expect to be available for Carlton at pick 5-8 ?

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks KM

Do you think that Tucker will develop an inside game this year ? Which mids do you expect to be available for Carlton at pick 5-8 ?

If Tucker can develop that inside game this year, he will go top 5, maybe number 1 overall or in that conversion. I'm just not sure he will develop that side to his game, and I'm even more sceptical about him developing it this year, with players rarely flicking that switch and changing their games so drastically in the space of one season.

In that 5-8 range those academy guys - Mills/Keays/Hopper I'd be putting in a bid for, same story with Josh Dunkley who is a father son from Sydney. Today I'm seeing them as the 4 best mids and 4 best talents overall in this years draft.

Beyond those guys you've got Parish who is probably that pick. Balic and Ah Chee as combo mid/fwd's with special talent are some to look out for if available. Tucker is also highly rated as an outside type. Just with all these guys if the draft happens today they probably aren't there when Carlton's pick comes around.

For those realistic guys who should be there: O'Kearney and Mathieson as two high production guys should be available and will as mids be considerations who will be monitored I'd imagine. Luke Partington, Matthew Nunn, Tom Cole, Will Combe and Gregory Clark are some others who probably don't go that high but are other midfielders who also look good at this early stage.

 

[Crippa16]

Thanks again KM
Just quickly again sorry ! Tucker may not have an inside game but does he go when he needs to and is he hard at it overall ?

 

[jpsmith]

any geelong falcons boys catching your eye km?

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks again KM
Just quickly again sorry ! Tucker may not have an inside game but does he go when he needs to and is he hard at it overall ?

I'm not yet convinced. There hasn't been a moment in a game where I've so much asked that specific question.

He isn't afraid of contact/tackles when it comes to taking the game on - and he'll take the gaps and take his chances but just generally he'll be more inclined to receive or sit on the outside or behind the ball than be the guy who goes in there and wins it, or alternatively just get it in space or by intercepting it behind the ball.

any geelong falcons boys catching your eye km?

Darcy Parish, Rhys Mathieson and Charlie Curnow primarily and they can all go first round.

Beyond the obvious Harrison Kol as an overager I'm really interested to see if he can take the next step. Kol for those who haven't seen him play, he can really break the lines and do damage. He just needs to find more of it and have more than 1-2 highlight plays per game.

Tom Doedee and Lachlan Mccartney are two I'm interested to see more of after a solid first two rounds.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Darcy Parish, Rhys Mathieson and Charlie Curnow primarily and they can all go first round.

Beyond the obvious Harrison Kol as an overager I'm really interested to see if he can take the next step. Kol for those who haven't seen him play, he can really break the lines and do damage. He just needs to find more of it and have more than 1-2 highlight plays per game.

Tom Doedee and Lachlan Mccartney are two I'm interested to see more of after a solid first two rounds.

Isn't Darcy Tucker also a Falcon?

 

[Knightmare]

Isn't Darcy Tucker also a Falcon?

North Ballarat Rebels.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

North Ballarat Rebels.

Ahk that explains why he was never mentioned in any Geelong Falcons articles I've read.

Cheers Knighter.

 

[Two Planks]

Trust us non-traditional footy state supporters, when Ed moans about us the AFL always jumps right to it.

Unfortunately without the revenue that Eds club generates we probably wouldn't have the funds to prop up the expansion teams and also the lions in the short term.

 

[Two Planks]

any geelong falcons boys catching your eye km?

Will Sexton dominated the intra club practice matches across half back and has continued that form into the season proper. Is in the Vic Country squad and is an elite kick off both sides. Size and stamina are the knocks but expect him to be the Harrison Wigg of this years draft. With Hawthorn looking like dominating the competition again look for teams to copy them and put more emphasis in kicking skills.

 

[Wizard17]

El Moussalli from Northern has been moved into the midfield last week and played well from all accounts. Seen much of him KM?

 

[Knightmare]

El Moussalli from Northern has been moved into the midfield last week and played well from all accounts. Seen much of him KM?

I'm aware he has played a fair bit last year and this year obviously is playing. Just not someone who has really stood out to me to this point. In fact in round one when I last saw Northern, I didn't note him once - and I'm sitting there doing practically a play by play of what I see and noting everything I see that I like/don't like. It doesn't mean that changes over the course of the season but he has yet to really gather my attention and last season while I've probably at some point noted him, nothing immediately comes to mind at this point.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

O'Kearney as he does found plenty of it.

.

Are there any/many knocks on Nick? He gets plenty of it, but how does he use it, decision making, penetration, creativeness, efficent? Can you compare him to a current AFL player?

 

[dlanod]

Unfortunately without the revenue that Eds club generates we probably wouldn't have the funds to prop up the expansion teams and also the lions in the short term.

Doubt it. The SA and WA clubs are printing money, as are the well-managed Vic clubs. I don't dispute that Ed's done a good job in turning around Collingwood and he takes every opportunity to push his club's angle, but that's just it - it's his club's angle, and sometimes the AFL should be looking at it with a long term view, not just what's best for Collingwood.

 

[Knightmare]

Are there any/many knocks on Nick? He gets plenty of it, but how does he use it, decision making, penetration, creativeness, efficent? Can you compare him to a current AFL player?

There is never anyone without weaknesses.

On O'Kearney by foot particularly has his troubles. Kicking efficiency is poor (had 4 more inefficient kicks than he had efficient kicks last season - around 46%). Footskills/decision making below average by AFL level, can spray kicks whether he is under pressure or not and under pressure at times pick the wrong options and feel rushed. Not super creative, sufficient but still only average penetration. By TAC Cup standards his ability in each of these categories is around average, but the standard overall in the TAC Cup isn't that high in these categories beyond those with really elite skills. But put him up a level against better competition and it's going to be relatively his most significant weakness.

Beyond his poor kicking he is only 180cm and still fairly light at only 69kg - or those were his measurements last year, so some will see that as a weakness for probably more of an inside player, though he can find it outside just as easily. Personally I see neither his height as a weakness for me 180cm is fine, and he'll put on weight in time, as long as you're not expecting 15 contested possessions per game, he'll be fine in that regard for me.

For pace not terrible and he can provide some limited run and carry, but he is hardly going to be a linebreaking threat at the next level.

I'd also like to see him add some further strings to his bow. Get forward more, be more of a marking and goalkicking threat. Just that something else to go with his midfield game.

So those are his relative weaknesses.

O'Kearney is relatively speaking the Matt Crouch of this draft as someone who stands out because of that sheer ability to accumulate, but with a better tank so he'll have an easier time covering the ground.
As for a more established player to compare O'Kearney with. Matthew Boyd is the name that most immediately comes to mind.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Hey Knightmare....Have noticed quite alot more Mature-agers at TAC CUP level in the squads this season....Any of em in particular catch your eye as having improved significantly enuf to warrant serious consideration for being Drafted in 2015?....Also, have any mature-aged smokey's popped up out of nowhere, who weren't on a list last season, to warrant consideration?

Have heard good raps thus far on Michael Mattingly from Northern & Callum Moore from Calder....Will either make the Metro State Squad in your opinion?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

What is the eligibility criteria to play TAC as a mature aged player? What is the real value in a player playing TAC rather than playing VFL/SANFL etc.

 

[Procrastinator35]

What is the eligibility criteria to play TAC as a mature aged player? What is the real value in a player playing TAC rather than playing VFL/SANFL etc.

So far as I'm aware, the cut off mark for age is at 1.1.96 for this year....So any kid born prior to 1996 is ineligible.

The comp had limited mature aged players for each squad down to just 2 a few years back, but since the success of so many second chance kids getting drafted, that has now increased to upwards of 8 on each list....Daniel Howe & Nathan Drummond from Murray Bushrangers in the 2014 Draft for Example.

Basically, it gives kids a second chance who might have had a bad injury the year prior, or who weren't good enuf the year prior but have improved significantly over the past 12 months.

I'm all for it.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

So far as I'm aware, the cut off mark for age is at 1.1.96 for this year....So any kid born prior to 1996 is ineligible.

The comp had limited mature aged players for each squad down to just 2 a few years back, but since the success of so many second chance kids getting drafted, that has now increased to upwards of 8 on each list....Daniel Howe & Nathan Drummond from Murray Bushrangers in the 2014 Draft for Example.

Basically, it gives kids a second chance who might have had a bad injury the year prior, or who weren't good enuf the year prior but have improved significantly over the past 12 months.

I'm all for it.

I am all for mature aged players getting drafted, but I think a model of u/19s that are attached to a VFL club like the SANFL and WAFL is a better option as it means the more developed teenagers are able to test themselves against the bigger bodies in the seniors and the AFL clubs get to view them playing senior football prior to the draft.