Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Hollow Sorrow]

Hey Knightmare who are the better kicks in the draft, who could fall late first round.

 

[pinot]

How deep will this draft go?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare who are the better kicks in the draft, who could fall late first round.

I love the footskills of Jy Simpkin.

Petrevski-Seton and Bowes are a couple of other high end types who can really use the footy.

They're all high first round picks though.

Jarrod Berry probably goes middle of first round but could fall. He is very clean with his ball use.

Alex Witherden and Harry Morrison as back flankers could be there late first round and both can do some damage.

 

[Knightmare]

How deep will this draft go?

We may see 60 selected on draft night for an early guess. Never easy to say early days. Depth of draft becomes more apparent over the course of the season as there are players every year who announce themselves over the second half of each season.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Knightmare,

Out of the top prospects, who stands out to you as having a good mix of offensive/defensive sides to their game? IMO this is something the Crows lack overall at the moment

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare,

Out of the top prospects, who stands out to you as having a good mix of offensive/defensive sides to their game? IMO this is something the Crows lack overall at the moment

Hugh McCluggage, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Will Brodie and Brandon Parfitt are among those better two way players with the more universal games where they get it done offensively, defensively and at stoppages.

 

[KissKiss]

And the long awaited draft rankings and profiles are up: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/15439491/may

The general idea of it was to offer solid early insight on my top 10 rated prospects and something briefer for the next 20 for my first update.

Enjoy.

Looks good but I noticed that you misspelled McCluggage's name in his bio. Don't mean to be picky but we want you to succeed so figure the extra scrutiny from this end is ok

 

[josh the gent]

Great work Knightmare - as always

Even at this early stage though, the whole academy system is destroying the integrity of the competition.

9 of the top 30 are from "academies", with 2 gold coast, 2 brisbane... And 5 gws.

The AFL will have a lot to answer for in 5 years time

 

[Knightmare]

Looks good but I noticed that you misspelled McCluggage's name in his bio. Don't mean to be picky but we want you to succeed so figure the extra scrutiny from this end is ok

Good pickup. Many thanks. Always happy for my mistakes to be picked up on, as there will always be something that goes amiss despite best efforts.

I have not read through the piece since it has been posted. In my document there was no mistake but upon editing that must have happened, probably a keyboard slip. Have notified my contact within ESPN and the change will be made soon.

Great work Knightmare - as always

Even at this early stage though, the whole academy system is destroying the integrity of the competition.

9 of the top 30 are from "academies", with 2 gold coast, 2 brisbane... And 5 gws.

The AFL will have a lot to answer for in 5 years time

It is a large proportion of this years draft class. This is not just my view but the consensus view this year. It is staggering how strong the group is.

Interesting with the GWS boys this year is many of them actually play their footy and are schooled in Victoria. I expect the AFL will review that element of the academy setup and presumably limit the scope of the academies to cover those talents exclusively who live in and are schooled in NSW/ACT.

 

[Doobies]

Great work Knightmare - as always

Even at this early stage though, the whole academy system is destroying the integrity of the competition.

9 of the top 30 are from "academies", with 2 gold coast, 2 brisbane... And 5 gws.

The AFL will have a lot to answer for in 5 years time

Without the academies I can guarantee you half these players wouldn't even be talked about

 

[Knightmare]

Without the academies I can guarantee you half these players wouldn't even be talked about

Without the academies half of these players would not be identified or developed from young ages. That is the difference and why we are talking about the academy players.

So the objective of the academies - in identifying and developing talent in QLD and NSW is happening and the draft pool is expanding as a result. So they're all positives.

 

[philthy05]

Interesting with the GWS boys this year is many of them actually play their footy and are schooled in Victoria. I expect the AFL will review that element of the academy setup and presumably limit the scope of the academies to cover those talents exclusively who live in and are schooled in NSW/ACT.

Without the academies I can guarantee you half these players wouldn't even be talked about

Without the academies half of these players would not be identified or developed from young ages. That is the difference and why we are talking about the academy players.

So the objective of the academies - in identifying and developing talent in QLD and NSW is happening and the draft pool is expanding as a result. So they're all positives.

Happy for academies to produce talent in their zones. It's a good thing.

I am firmly in boat of not liking the nsw players in the tac systems though. Hope they change it.

I do feel that in time at this rate we might see some trouble with these teams being constantly dominant because of their ability to restock top players while around the top of the ladder and trade out fringe players for mid to late picks which they continually bundle together these mid draft picks to select them with points. Hopefully they look at the points system if that does happen and don't sleep on it. But overall if they pass on sa and vic players and take local talent then that is good for everyone and even better if we generate more exciting players to watch like heeney etc

 

[Knightmare]

Happy for academies to produce talent in their zones. It's a good thing.

I am firmly in boat of not liking the nsw players in the tac systems though. Hope they change it.

I do feel that in time at this rate we might see some trouble with these teams being constantly dominant because of their ability to restock top players while around the top of the ladder and trade out fringe players for mid to late picks which they continually bundle together these mid draft picks to select them with points. Hopefully they look at the points system if that does happen and don't sleep on it.

The idea of the academy and giving the QLD and NSW clubs access to it is to find the talent (which they're doing) and to develop them (which some clubs are doing better than others). GWS are the recent example of how the academy shouldn't be allowed to run with all those players playing in Victoria and for different TAC Cup sides. That just plainly shouldn't be in the rules. They should be developing under the guidance of GWS specialist coaches for GWS to be given special access to them. If they're in Victoria for schooling + football then they should move out of the academy program and just join the draft pool as anyone else would. In my view that's a more reasonable and moral way to go about the system.

The points system was a definite step in the right direction though. There is still that incentive there for the clubs, but at the same time it's not like adding a Heeney level talent at the end of the first round, when they should otherwise be pick 1-3. So credit to the AFL for devising that system and also taking a step into the future with the following years first round picks also now available for trading which is a great positive for player movement.

 

[coniglio_number1]

Except no parent will turn down free education at top schools via a scholarship for their child to maintain academy credibility.

 

[Old navy]

Without the academies half of these players would not be identified or developed from young ages. That is the difference and why we are talking about the academy players.

So the objective of the academies - in identifying and developing talent in QLD and NSW is happening and the draft pool is expanding as a result. So they're all positives.

I know that's what people aren't getting. Just because these academy players start there careers at a particular club, doesn't mean they will stay there for there whole career.
There nothing to stop any of the Victorian clubs going after these gun academy players like Heeney Mills and Hopper with offers of better money or opportunity.
It just means more gun players in the draft pool.

 

[avishka5]

No clear standout crumber at this stage. Ben Ainsworth is the best small forward, but he is more a marking small, though can also crumb reasonably well.

Sam Fowler and Daniel Allsop are two in Victoria showing early talent and could be possible rookie considerations. Will continue watching for crumbers as the season progresses.

For your inside/outside midfielder with leg speed McCluggage is the guy offering precisely that.

Waterman's draft position is unclear at this stage. I look at him more as a probably 2nd/3rd round selection at this stage. 4th round is also possible. He looks like a national draft selection though. Just needs to clean up his work by foot.


.

who would you compare ainsworth to someone playing at AFL level. Could you say he plays similair to a LeCras?

 

[Don94]

Hi Knightmare who are some gun key forwards and gun key defenders that Port Adelaide be interested in? Especially someone that can replace Schulz in the future and a key defender to support Hombsch

 

[Dunny82]

And the long awaited draft rankings and profiles are up: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/15439491/may

The general idea of it was to offer solid early insight on my top 10 rated prospects and something briefer for the next 20 for my first update.

Enjoy.

Love seeing your work back KM, great distraction at work! Congrats on the writing role, great to see some recognition for all your effort.

Interesting to see no Goddard in your top 30 whereas I've seen him in the top 20/25 in other power rankings and also likened to Mumford's style of play. What have you seen from him to say he shouldn't be grouped amongst the top 20? Do you think it's likely he could rank higher than Sweet by the end of the year?

 

[eth-dog]

A few things I've noticed about Essendon's players aged 23 or under is:

1. The lack of very big bodied inside midfielders
2. The lack of young KPP's at either end

I'd be taking a KPF, KPD and two big inside mids this draft with our probable 4 draft picks.

 

[scanlon]

A few things I've noticed about Essendon's players aged 23 or under is:

1. The lack of very big bodied inside midfielders
2. The lack of young KPP's at either end

I'd be taking a KPF, KPD and two big inside mids this draft with our probable 4 draft picks.

I like Brett Blair and Josh Battle. Both play forward and are averaging 4 goals a game this year. Theyre nimble for their size standing at 189cm and 192cm respectively and would be a good mix next to Joey.

What do you think of these two KM?

 

[Crippa16]

Hey KM,

If Carlton have say pick 3 at years end do you think they will go tall or small given that we went tall last year?
Would Sam Petrevski-Seton still be available at that pick or Josh Battle?

The way I see it is that we need midfielders who have very good kicking skills and are very good decision makers. If SPS is gone by then who is next best?

Thanks

 

[Knightmare]

Except no parent will turn down free education at top schools via a scholarship for their child to maintain academy credibility.

That should be the choice. A private school education in Victoria (leaving the academy) or remaining in NSW/QLD or wherever and continue with the academy commitments and specialist coaching.

Playing TAC Cup and APS (Private School Footy) is a great combination and a good move for anyone from NSW or QLD wanting to further their footy.

I just don't believe anyone part of the academy should reasonably be allowed to do that unless they forfeit their position in one of those academies. Reason being, they're not playing, living or being educated in their home state anymore, and furthermore their primary source of coaching is coming interstate and not from those academy coaches hired to help them develop.

So that element of things I can't approve of, as presently constructed. And that's just my opinion.

who would you compare ainsworth to someone playing at AFL level. Could you say he plays similair to a LeCras?

As per my piece for ESPN (see link in post 2 in this thread) with my power rankings and profiles I liken Ainsworth to Jamie Elliott as a similar marking tall who can really fly for it if he wants to.

LeCras is another possible stylistic comparison. The major difference is Ainsworth isn't as reliable in front of goals as LeCras, so you draft him with that knowledge. Otherwise they're not so dissimilar.

Hi Knightmare who are some gun key forwards and gun key defenders that Port Adelaide be interested in? Especially someone that can replace Schulz in the future and a key defender to support Hombsch

Many of the better talls belong to the various academies.

Josh Battle is the better of the key forwards outside of the academies and Josh Rotham the better of the key defenders. Rotham if Port are interested in more of a rebounding key defender could be a worthwhile consideration.

Love seeing your work back KM, great distraction at work! Congrats on the writing role, great to see some recognition for all your effort.

Interesting to see no Goddard in your top 30 whereas I've seen him in the top 20/25 in other power rankings and also likened to Mumford's style of play. What have you seen from him to say he shouldn't be grouped amongst the top 20? Do you think it's likely he could rank higher than Sweet by the end of the year?

Jeremy Goddard I'm very aware of. Until probably a couple of weeks before I released my power rankings Goddard was in there, but a few others have me more convinced. Goddard is a big boy at 202cm and 95kg. Excellent tap ruckman. He just needs to find more of it around the ground and start offering some scoreboard impact. Until he offers one or both of those things, Goddard is not someone I'd consider in the first or second round for selection.

Sweet I slightly favour. Even taller and bigger guy, just as good if not even a touch better tap ruckman, but critically he has shown to this point slightly better ability to find the footy around the ground which in todays game is so key as we're seeing the Robbie Warnock/Shaun Hampson types struggle and go out of favour.

They're both in much the same conversation though and Goddard may get selected before Sweet on draft day. I just lean towards Sweet at this stage.

A few things I've noticed about Essendon's players aged 23 or under is:

1. The lack of very big bodied inside midfielders
2. The lack of young KPP's at either end

I'd be taking a KPF, KPD and two big inside mids this draft with our probable 4 draft picks.

Hurley and Hooker are the two good key defenders. Daniher the key forward. Brown and Hartley can be kept. Otherwise that's what Essendon have. I personally like Essendon for key defenders. Hooker and Hurley are both among the better key defenders in the competition. Hartley and Brown also are highly capable. Maybe a key defender could be had as a rookie if value presents, but I wouldn't personally in Essendon's situation consider that to be a priority.

A second key forward though I'm completely with you. Essendon need that second high level key forward to play alongside Daniher. Then also a further developing option. I'd recommend Essendon target Patton or Tomlinson as key forwards. Then if a suitable option presents through the draft go get them.

The midfield I agree with you on. More dominating inside midfielders are needed. Like with the key forward situation I'd lean in Essendon's situation to looking to some opposition lists for some value and someone who is underappreciated. Again GWS have so many premier midfielders, and several of them in the reserves who could represent excellent value, and be much better utilised with the greater midfield opportunity Essendon could offer them. Jacob Hopper is dominating for the GWS reserves and looks like a best on list standard midfielder. Jack Steele is big time and not playing as prominent a role through the midfield as he probably could be. Josh Kelly while more outside is underutilised and can be big-time for a team with greater midfield opportunity.

I'd be approaching GWS and going aggressive offering a trade of Essendon's 2016 and 2017 first round selections for one of Patton and Tomlinson, one of Jacob Hopper, Jack Steele and Josh Kelly and some other GWS player or pick to even up the value of the trade.

I like Brett Blair and Josh Battle. Both play forward and are averaging 4 goals a game this year. Theyre nimble standing at 189cm and 192cm respectively and would be a good mix next to Joey.

What do you think of these two KM?

Battle is good. I don't expect him to be available in the second round and may be someone who is between Essendon's picks unless he really dominates this season and commands a top few selection in which case maybe Essendon go early on him.

Blair is more your Jeremy Howe type medium athletic marking type and a maybe selection late/rookie with continued strong play.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,

If Carlton have say pick 3 at years end do you think they will go tall or small given that we went tall last year?
Would Sam Petrevski-Seton still be available at that pick or Josh Battle?

The way I see it is that we need midfielders who have very good kicking skills and are very good decision makers. If SPS is gone by then who is next best?

Thanks

Several talls taken by Carlton last year so likely Carlton give Weitering (who can be all time special down back), McKay and Curnow another year to develop before making another assessment on the clubs key position stocks.

It's a year where probably midfielders are the way to go early unless a club really fall in love with Battle or Rotham of those non-academy types. And Carlton likely follow that idea and also go best available midfielder, with Carlton having fairly pressing midfield needs with not a lot after Cripps.

At pick 3 if there, and he may not necessarily be, but Petrevski-Seton is probably the better talent. He has exceptionally special ability and can have an impact anywhere you put him, on both sides of the ball.

If Petrevski-Seton is not there for Carlton around pick 3, Hugh McCluggage would be a terrific choice, and someone who more likely than not will be available as someone seen more likely to go 5-10 with a good year, rather than pick 1-2 as I may be prepared to select him.

 

[scanlon]

Blair is more your Jeremy Howe type medium athletic marking type and a maybe selection late/rookie with continued strong play.

Have only seen him play once so just wondering what your knock on him is? IIRC hes an over-ager but he seems to have improved rapidly over the pre-season.

Also, do you think he can become a solid forward at AFL level standing at only 189cm?

 

[Knightmare]

Have only seen him play once so just wondering what your knock on him is? IIRC hes an over-ager but he seems to have improved rapidly over the pre-season.

Also, do you think he can become a solid forward at AFL level standing at only 189cm?

Have seen Blair play and his improvement from last season is significant. Possible AFL standard player and someone late draft I like early days. As with any potential late selection no guarantee of a future at AFL level, but plausible with continued improvement as he can really take a grab and is hitting the scoreboard at a high volume.