Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Ben Drever]

What would you rather trade out of the following scenarios? Just an estimate on the numbers btw.

4 + 10 for 1 + SK

10 + Prestia for 1

10 + O'Meara for 1

Preferably option A.

Then we'd get whoever we choose with pick 1 then Bowes and Scheer.

I'd be mighty impressed with that draft haul.

If we could keep both Prestia and JOM even better.

But by the looks of it 1 of them has recently told the club of there future plans because we have signed 2 uncontracted players in the last couple days.

Were lucky to of signed 2 for the whole year up until this week.

Somehow we have ran into a pile of money to throw around.

Expecting Prestia to leave as he didn't have anything inspiring to say at the member forum last week unlike May and Lynch also from the leadership group really talked the club up.

 

[M Malice]

when the trading period rolls around, if there is a clear number 1 who is from an academy eg. bowes/setterfield/perryman IMO there is no doubt they will try to trade up to pick 1 so they can get a pick in before the first bid on their player. whoever ends up with the number 1 selection will be in a very good position to negotiate for that deal.

if by chance the lions ended up with the 1st pick i would give it up for a package of say 2 or 3 of steele/tomlinson/marchbank/patton and a swaping around of later picks, as long as we ended up with enough points to get rolls, allison and watson.

 

[coniglio_number1]

We offered Patton a contract after he blew his knee for the second time. Club loves him and he loves the club.

McCarthy, Stewart and Tomlinson are the talls that would be moved on and I can't see how Cloke could force his way into our team when he can't do it at the pies when they don't have forwards like Cameron keeping him out

 

[philthy05]

If gc have the first pick via trade they can bid mcreadie then settle field

Forcing gws to match both , gc then selects a player with what is now pick three

Highest bid possible for bowes is now pick 4. Which is the value of a second rounder cheaper than a bid of pick 1

Makes so much sense for gc. Gives great power to pick 1 holder to play off gc and gws for a trade as gws will want to block it for sure and get the number one pick. Freo look to have it for sure and should turn it into multiple picks or assets

 

[blueiris]

So the Lions will be the only Academy team not to have had a top 10 draft pick though they're Academy are the Lions not working hard enough to find talent though the Academy

 

[eth-dog]

So the Lions will be the only Academy team not to have had a top 10 draft pick though they're Academy are the Lions not working hard enough to find talent though the Academy

Well Allison still could well be a top 10 draftee.

 

[philthy05]

So the Lions will be the only Academy team not to have had a top 10 draft pick though they're Academy are the Lions not working hard enough to find talent though the Academy

The two kids last year and Alison and rolls this year?

Teams would kill to get a draft haul like that

 

[Knightmare]

Preferably option A.

Then we'd get whoever we choose with pick 1 then Bowes and Scheer.

I'd be mighty impressed with that draft haul.

If we could keep both Prestia and JOM even better.

But by the looks of it 1 of them has recently told the club of there future plans because we have signed 2 uncontracted players in the last couple days.

Were lucky to of signed 2 for the whole year up until this week.

Somehow we have ran into a pile of money to throw around.

Expecting Prestia to leave as he didn't have anything inspiring to say at the member forum last week unlike May and Lynch also from the leadership group really talked the club up.

You need picks to have enough points for both Bowes and Scheer. Daniel Charlesworth may be a third.

Trading picks isn't going to help GC do that.

If GC move up to pick 1, the intention would be to use that pick on someone other than Bowes. Then with the picks after that, make up the points to add Bowes.

It would take an incredible amount of trade activity and trading for combinations of picks using talents such as - Adam Saad, Trent McKenzie, Matt Shaw, Brandon Matera, Sam Day etc to get close to having the required number of picks to get enough points to get those three, if either and certainly if both of those current first round picks from Gold Coast are traded.

when the trading period rolls around, if there is a clear number 1 who is from an academy eg. bowes/setterfield/perryman IMO there is no doubt they will try to trade up to pick 1 so they can get a pick in before the first bid on their player. whoever ends up with the number 1 selection will be in a very good position to negotiate for that deal.

if by chance the lions ended up with the 1st pick i would give it up for a package of say 2 or 3 of steele/tomlinson/marchbank/patton and a swaping around of later picks, as long as we ended up with enough points to get rolls, allison and watson.

Rolls, Allison and Watson I'm not expecting require as extremely high picks to get, compared to the GWS and GC boys.

Essendon and Fremantle with those bottom picks would be wise to strongly consider deals along the lines you're suggesting, Brisbane could also look at something like that with a bottom few pick, though the return would not be as great as with those top 2 picks.

We offered Patton a contract after he blew his knee for the second time. Club loves him and he loves the club.

McCarthy, Stewart and Tomlinson are the talls that would be moved on and I can't see how Cloke could force his way into our team when he can't do it at the pies when they don't have forwards like Cameron keeping him out

Cloke will be back in the clubs best 22 and is still by a long shot the clubs best key forward. He is just being made to earn it, with the club wanting him to first prove that he is enjoying his footy, which he is now, and then prove it with quality of play.

Cloke would play certainly ahead of Patton if he played for GWS. Patton is still developing and has yet to achieve anything, with glimpses shown to this point, but not the complete package. That's not to suggest he won't develop, I have full confidence Patton will. It's just not going to be an immediate thing. And with GWS' premiership window now, I'd be taking the established player and striking while his value is low. Same story with Collingwood's Ben Reid and Jarrod Witts, if I'm to offer recruiting advise to GWS, they both along with Cloke would be among those I'd target. Witts would be an optimal replacement for Mumford, and a perfect student to learn under him. Reid an optimal key defender to pair with Davis. Cloke would be a terrific mentor to Patton and Cameron and can offer much more than Patton in the immediate.

Adding proven, established ballers, as GWS have done with Mumford and Shaw is what makes teams better.

If gc have the first pick via trade they can bid mcreadie then settle field

Forcing gws to match both , gc then selects a player with what is now pick three

Highest bid possible for bowes is now pick 4. Which is the value of a second rounder cheaper than a bid of pick 1

Makes so much sense for gc. Gives great power to pick 1 holder to play off gc and gws for a trade as gws will want to block it for sure and get the number one pick. Freo look to have it for sure and should turn it into multiple picks or assets

Gold Coast could go Macreadie, Setterfield then Perryman if they wanted to. All would be terrific list fits and would either force GWS to pay for them, or mean Gold Coast can snatch a talent directly from GWS' academy.

Gold Coast with that pick one could do so much.

Though it could be a similar story with GWS if they trade for a top three selection, or perhaps several top three selections. A very clever way to get a discount on their academy talents.

So the Lions will be the only Academy team not to have had a top 10 draft pick though they're Academy are the Lions not working hard enough to find talent though the Academy

The size and scope of GWS' zone will make any team look bad.

This is the first year under the Academy system that Gold Coast have had any relevance.

Rolls and Watson are both developing, even if Allison has relatively taken a small step back on impact, he has the ability to redeem himself during the div 1 games. I'm not seeing any particular problem with what Brisbane are doing with their academy, based purely on the players I'm watching from the Brisbane academies and their rates of development.

Brisbane were lucky last year to get Keays and Hipwood both in my view last year were worth top 10 selections. Then again GWS got their academy boys much cheaper than their real worth also, so it appears clubs at least last year were very conservative with their bidding.

 

[Ben Drever]

For Gold Coast.

Eades already stated he is going to get rid of any of the dead wood that he can't see a future with this off season and bring in fresh talent.

If We could get pick 1 then use all our points on Bowes and Scheer I'm more then happy to.

Just because we have an academy kid worth a third rounder doesn't mean we have to pick him up.
Much rather get the talent from the pointy end.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

We offered Patton a contract after he blew his knee for the second time. Club loves him and he loves the club.

McCarthy, Stewart and Tomlinson are the talls that would be moved on and I can't see how Cloke could force his way into our team when he can't do it at the pies when they don't have forwards like Cameron keeping him out

Some players will get squeezed out imo there is no way GWS can keep all this talent while bringing in some more.

 

[LynchysMob]

You need picks to have enough points for both Bowes and Scheer. Daniel Charlesworth may be a third.

Trading picks isn't going to help GC do that.

If GC move up to pick 1, the intention would be to use that pick on someone other than Bowes. Then with the picks after that, make up the points to add Bowes.

It would take an incredible amount of trade activity and trading for combinations of picks using talents such as - Adam Saad, Trent McKenzie, Matt Shaw, Brandon Matera, Sam Day etc to get close to having the required number of picks to get enough points to get those three, if either and certainly if both of those current first round picks from Gold Coast are traded.



Rolls, Allison and Watson I'm not expecting require as extremely high picks to get, compared to the GWS and GC boys.

Essendon and Fremantle with those bottom picks would be wise to strongly consider deals along the lines you're suggesting, Brisbane could also look at something like that with a bottom few pick, though the return would not be as great as with those top 2 picks.



Cloke will be back in the clubs best 22 and is still by a long shot the clubs best key forward. He is just being made to earn it, with the club wanting him to first prove that he is enjoying his footy, which he is now, and then prove it with quality of play.

Cloke would play certainly ahead of Patton if he played for GWS. Patton is still developing and has yet to achieve anything, with glimpses shown to this point, but not the complete package. That's not to suggest he won't develop, I have full confidence Patton will. It's just not going to be an immediate thing. And with GWS' premiership window now, I'd be taking the established player and striking while his value is low. Same story with Collingwood's Ben Reid and Jarrod Witts, if I'm to offer recruiting advise to GWS, they both along with Cloke would be among those I'd target. Witts would be an optimal replacement for Mumford, and a perfect student to learn under him. Reid an optimal key defender to pair with Davis. Cloke would be a terrific mentor to Patton and Cameron and can offer much more than Patton in the immediate.

Adding proven, established ballers, as GWS have done with Mumford and Shaw is what makes teams better.



Gold Coast could go Macreadie, Setterfield then Perryman if they wanted to. All would be terrific list fits and would either force GWS to pay for them, or mean Gold Coast can snatch a talent directly from GWS' academy.

Gold Coast with that pick one could do so much.

Though it could be a similar story with GWS if they trade for a top three selection, or perhaps several top three selections. A very clever way to get a discount on their academy talents.



The size and scope of GWS' zone will make any team look bad.

This is the first year under the Academy system that Gold Coast have had any relevance.

Rolls and Watson are both developing, even if Allison has relatively taken a small step back on impact, he has the ability to redeem himself during the div 1 games. I'm not seeing any particular problem with what Brisbane are doing with their academy, based purely on the players I'm watching from the Brisbane academies and their rates of development.

Brisbane were lucky last year to get Keays and Hipwood both in my view last year were worth top 10 selections. Then again GWS got their academy boys much cheaper than their real worth also, so it appears clubs at least last year were very conservative with their bidding.

Is what your saying that we can't be trading both our first rounders because well need one them to have enough for Bowes and then Scheer, Charlesworth, Williams with later picks?

 

[Knightmare]

Is what your saying that we can't be trading both our first rounders because well need one them to have enough for Bowes and then Scheer, Charlesworth, Williams with later picks?

Bowes is probably pick one. Scheer could be a top 10 selection. Charlesworth and Williams are worthwhile picks later on.

If picks 4+10 or whatever they end up being are moved. There won't be a lot left to get the points required.

It's going to require a lot of points (see page 7 to see the points each selection is worth to give you an idea of what will be required): http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

 

[Knightmare]

For Gold Coast.

Eades already stated he is going to get rid of any of the dead wood that he can't see a future with this off season and bring in fresh talent.

If We could get pick 1 then use all our points on Bowes and Scheer I'm more then happy to.

Just because we have an academy kid worth a third rounder doesn't mean we have to pick him up.
Much rather get the talent from the pointy end.

As with any selection you look at their chances to become a best 22 player. Will they have a better chance than the next likely alternative at that selection? That's always the question and will be what Gold Coast will have to decide on.

 

[LynchysMob]

Thanks mate. Was sorta hoping we'd trade both but hadn't analysed the picks worth in points. Shall have a look.

 

[coniglio_number1]

Some players will get squeezed out imo there is no way GWS can keep all this talent while bringing in some more.

I agree we will shed some players. Mostly coming from those outside the 22. But I just disagree with targeting Cloke when a KPF is the very last thing we need. I get that knightmare being a pies supporter wants maximum trade value out of Cloke by scoring our good talent but freo are the team that would in reality make a play for him

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Bowes is probably pick one. Scheer could be a top 10 selection. Charlesworth and Williams are worthwhile picks later on.

If picks 4+10 or whatever they end up being are moved. There won't be a lot left to get the points required.

It's going to require a lot of points (see page 7 to see the points each selection is worth to give you an idea of what will be required): http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

I think you're overestimating the amount of points they'll need to get them. Let's say they end up going where you've rated them.

Points Needed
Bowes: 3000 x 0.8 = 2400
Scheer: 1551 x 0.8 = 1240.8
Total: 3640.8

Current Points
4: 2034
10: 1395
19: 948
22: 845
23: 815
27: 703
40: 429
58: 170
Total: 7339

So they've got easily enough to cover any bids.

But let's say they want pick 1.
Trade 4 and 10 for pick 1.
Bowes now costs (2517 x 0.8 = 2013.6) and total cost is (2013.6 + 1240.8 = 3254.4)
Remaining picks total 3910, enough for Bowes and Scheer, while using pick 1 on the best player in the draft. Should have enough for other academy players also.

This isn't even including trading out other players (O'Meara, Prestia, whoever), or the points gain they'll get for trading picks down.

They're pretty well set up to game the system.

 

[CD__]

Can't see any Academy clubs bidding on other Academy clubs' prospects. The 4 Northern clubs are better off sticking together.

 

[coniglio_number1]

GC bid on hopper last year

 

[Ben Drever]

GC bid on hopper last year

And his first game proved to everyone why!!
Wowee.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Sorry if youve answered this already but what do you think of Perryman? Obviously a really good player but from what ive heard he isnt blessed with speed. Do you think hes good enough to translate his form to AFL level?

Not quick but elite inside and by foot on both sides and can take intercept marks at half back if he plays there

Don't worry about his speed he's a footballer

 

[eth-dog]

Can't see any Academy clubs bidding on other Academy clubs' prospects. The 4 Northern clubs are better off sticking together.

If Gold Coast got pick 1/2 in a trade I can definitely see them bidding on the likes of Allison, Macreadie, Setterfield to drive Bowes' price down.

 

[CD__]

If Gold Coast got pick 1/2 in a trade I can definitely see them bidding on the likes of Allison, Macreadie, Setterfield to drive Bowes' price down.

Mmm maybe 1 pick on someone that is a legitimate gun but I highly doubt they'd reel off 3 or 4.

 

[eth-dog]

Mmm maybe 1 pick on someone that is a legitimate gun but I highly doubt they'd reel off 3 or 4.

Can't say I agree. All it does is drive the value of Bowes and Scheer lower so they can possibly get another top 30 player in the draft along with someone like McCluggage/Brodie/Petrevski-Seton on top of the academy prospects.

 

[CD__]

Can't say I agree. All it does is drive the value of Bowes and Scheer lower so they can possibly get another top 30 player in the draft along with someone like McCluggage/Brodie/Petrevski-Seton on top of the academy prospects.

I fully understand the logic behind it...but I don't think it's worth upsetting another Academy club over it. When you've got Eddie and co trying to tear you down it's imperative that you stick together.

 

[CatRiot]

Hey KM, Not sure if its too early in the season to ask, but how is Nick Dodge going for Tasmania? He was a small fast goal kicking forward last year, and I understand he is playing in the midfield these days? Any views on him?
Cheers