Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Hello, this has probably been answered/discussed but I generally don’t follow the draft very closely. Where is bailey smith most likely to end up?

My phantom draft I've listed on page 1.

Pick 4-8 is his range. There is still probable pick switching in that range, so it will depend on who needs a midfielder.

 

[Moeydw]

I know you don't rate Quaymor as highly as others like Cal Twomey, do you have any inside info or gut feel of where a bid would come for him?

 

[Knightmare]

I know you don't rate Quaymor as highly as others like Cal Twomey, do you have any inside info or gut feel of where a bid would come for him?

12 - 25 is what many are predicting.

I can't pin down which club would bid. My best guess is in the 20s with anywhere in the teens feeling extraordinarily early to place a bid on him.

 

[Wild Bill]

Thoughts on when the bid for Scott will come?

 

[Knightmare]

Thoughts on when the bid for Scott will come?

Mid draft is likely. Won't be a top 30 bid I wouldn't have thought, but somewhere in the 30s/40s is likely.

 

[Browny123]

Where would you have Mitch O’Neill for next year

Green could well be the first Academy prospect to go 1. He's so impressive that GWS could afford to trade one of their midfielders if it means they can fill a more pressing list need - be it ruck, forward or back.

Mills and Heeney weren't far off. Bowes was considered in the mix early in his draft year.



It shouldn't be hard to do with that KPP core forming.



With his form post u18 champs Green has past by Flanders for top of my 2019 draft board.

He's the most powerful contested ball winner and stoppage player I've seen at that age/stage. He also showed me more tricks on the weekend than I expected. Kicking/vision was good. I also found he was quicker and more agile than I had expected with no movement issue either, with a few explosive bursts.

He's not as tall, but he is the Patrick Cripps equivalent of the u18s.

I was initially think he was more Josh Kennedy (Sydney), but he more tricks it's feeling like.

 

[Mofra]

Hi KM,

It might be a difficult answer because players who go late all have flaws in their game that may not transition well to the AFL environment but do you see any late-pick talls that are draftable? I assume they're likely to be KPDs where some late picks in the past have proven to be valuable. Cheers.

 

[Moeydw]

12 - 25 is what many are predicting.

I can't pin down which club would bid. My best guess is in the 20s with anywhere in the teens feeling extraordinarily early to place a bid on him.

What would be the highest pick you'd match a bid for him on?

 

[Knightmare]

Where would you have Mitch O’Neill for next year

Late first - second round early days is where he sits. He'll need a strong 2019 to maintain that range with others sure to rise.

Hi KM,

It might be a difficult answer because players who go late all have flaws in their game that may not transition well to the AFL environment but do you see any late-pick talls that are draftable? I assume they're likely to be KPDs where some late picks in the past have proven to be valuable. Cheers.

Surely the Dogs don't need more KPDs? Not a fan of Lewis Young?

Even with Marcus Adams requesting a trade and Dale Morris retiring whenever he is good and ready, Naughton, Young, Trengove and Roberts is a decent group.

I don't know how late he goes, but I'm in love with Noah Gown's game. He played key forward but can transition to defence no problem with the way he reads it and takes grabs. If he's there late (i'm still getting a gauge on his range) he'll be a ripper.

Tyler Keitel from the WAFL as a mature ager which he has played more forward has the capacity to play key defence and is probably there as a rookie.

For a smokie no one likes but should, Essendon NGA Daniel Hanna (overager) I also really like for his height and marking. Super strong mark and will intercept all day. I don't know if Essendon would take him as a rookie even. But there are a lot of better know key defenders I favour Hanna ahead of.

Jordon Butts is another as a key defender I like.

What would be the highest pick you'd match a bid for him on?

Given I have guys who may go rookie draft or may even go undrafted ahead of Quaynor on my draft board. I'd only be prepared to offer him a rookie position.

That's not to say he can't or won't make the grade. I view him as a 40-60 player in this draft, as I have a strong preference towards a lot of this years mature agers after my first 30. Though if I'm completing a junior talent draft board, he would be around 40.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Given I have guys who may go rookie draft or may even go undrafted ahead of Quaynor on my draft board. I'd only be prepared to offer him a rookie position.

That's not to say he can't or won't make the grade. I view him as a 40-60 player in this draft, as I have a strong preference towards a lot of this years mature agers after my first 30. Though if I'm completing a junior talent draft board, he would be around 40.

Out of curiosity, what do you identify as the flaws in Quaynor's game to have him at that value?

 

[Knightmare]

Out of curiosity, what do you identify as the flaws in Quaynor's game to have him at that value?

A lack of a point of difference plays a large part.

I haven't found a role where he impacts games beyond just playing a role without standing out.

If you want to be a first round pick, you need to have a way of influencing outcomes and impacting games. Quaynor since the AFL Academy games earlier in the year, I haven't seen him look like one of the better players in any of his games for either Oakleigh or Vic Metro.

Very much a single way player - either plays a lockdown role, provides run, wins the ball. Can do one thing well, but only ever able to do the one thing at a time.

Decision making under pressure isn't great and can be prone to bombing long without looking/taking his time.

Not a great reader of the ball in flight - seems to pick up the ball late in the air and as a result takes few intercept marks and can be second to the ball against the better/quicker forward.

That's not to say there aren't things he does well. I like his ground ball winning capacity. Will when given the freedom provide run and carry. He plays taller than his height and while he's not taking 1v1 marks, holds his position in the contest. Has that role playing potential either as a stopper down back or plausibly even as a ball winning midfielder if he is developed in that capacity.

 

[HedgeFund]

Very much a single way player - either plays a lockdown role, provides run, wins the ball. Can do one thing well, but only ever able to do the one thing at a time.

Decision making under pressure isn't great and can be prone to bombing long without looking/taking his time.

Not a great reader of the ball in flight - seems to pick up the ball late in the air and as a result takes few intercept marks and can be second to the ball against the better/quicker forward.

Wow - sounds like a bit of a spud. Might surprise you to know opposition teams made negating him their first mission when playing Oakleigh week in/out throughout the season. Maybe they just got better at that in the second half of the year.....so he didn’t have the same impact.

Not many other TAC Players had that much work put into negating them by opposition I can assure you.

 

[Knightmare]

Wow - sounds like a bit of a spud. Might surprise you to know opposition teams made negating him their first mission when playing Oakleigh week in/out throughout the season. Maybe they just got better at that in the second half of the year.....so he didn’t have the same impact.

Not many other TAC Players had that much work put into negating them by opposition I can assure you.

The planning evidently worked.

Quaynor didn't appear in Oakleigh's bests since July, with no more than 16 disposals in any of those last six games and no game this year where I'd say he 'dominated' or 'took over a game'.

Soundly beaten by Sam Sturt in the TAC Cup Grand Final who beat him to the ball every time on the lead - creating separation on the lead and reading it earlier. Was unable to provide any rebound and was forced into the midfield to just get him involved - where he looked better.

I'm not here to call Quaynor a 'spud.'

I am here to judge him on performance. Quaynor has role player potential. I'm not seeing a star or someone who in any draft should feature inside the first round. Such evaluations I regard as wildly optimistic and unrealistic.

If he can become something like Heritier Lumumba, or develops as a midfielder - and it's hard to say what as he has played very little through there. They're the best case scenarios.

 

[eDPS]

Quaynor is someone I can see playing the same role as McGrath did last year and that won him the rising star award.

I’d be shocked if Quaynor isn’t a 200 game player for Collingwood

 

[Moeydw]

Quaynor is someone I can see playing the same role as McGrath did last year and that won him the rising star award.

I’d be shocked if Quaynor isn’t a 200 game player for Collingwood

Can I ask where you see him ranked in this draft class and the reason behind it?

 

[MotlopMagic]

Hey Knightmare,

Just wondering if I can get your thoughts on Nathan Kreuger?


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[eDPS]

Can I ask where you see him ranked in this draft class and the reason behind it?

I have him in the 15-25 range myself mostly because small defenders I can’t really justify being any higher but as small defenders go he is one of the better ones I’ve seen in recent years.

He is a hard worker and by all accounts an outstanding kid, he has that good mix of defense and attack which is vital as a small defender in the modern game.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare,

Just wondering if I can get your thoughts on Nathan Kreuger?

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Terrific athlete. Has the speed and agility like few KPPs. An able mark. Much improved this year and impressively managed good SANFL League numbers which is a real positive. The way he plays, I wouldn't be shocked if he even walked into a midfield one day - having those kinds of ground ball winning capabilities.

He reminds me of ex Pies/Swan Jesse White, though a better version with more polish and better overhead capabilities.

He's developable and one Geelong fans should continue to track the development of with interest.

 

[Knightmare]

Anyone by chance have the complete testing results of Lukosius that they're willing to share? Very interested in his athletic testing results.

Any addition information such as final measurements/hand size also would also be interesting to know.

 

[Walkingwounded]

Anyone by chance have the complete testing results of Lukosius that they're willing to share? Very interested in his athletic testing results.

Any addition information such as final measurements/hand size also would also be interesting to know.

I’m keen on knowing hand size measurements as well, not often reported.. but seems to play a big role in marking the red pill.

Out of interest KM do or or others know who were the top 5 for contested Marks in the U18 champs I’m finding it difficult to find this simple stat!

 

[curnow inferno]

hi km, i know you have given your final phantom draft however will you also be providing your final power rankings or has not much changed since your last one? particularly in regards to top 5 picks. cheers!

 

[Knightmare]

I’m keen on knowing hand size measurements as well, not often reported.. but seems to play a big role in marking the red pill.

Out of interest KM do or or others know who were the top 5 for contested Marks in the U18 champs I’m finding it difficult to find this simple stat!

Manual count (totals):
D.O'Reilly (7)
Lukosius/Rankine/B.King/Briggs/Koschitzke (tied 5)

hi km, i know you have given your final phantom draft however will you also be providing your final power rankings or has not much changed since your last one? particularly in regards to top 5 picks. cheers!

Updated power rankings coming out end of week. A number of changes since the start of September.

If I have any changes to make, and I may have some minor changes as I review past games over the coming weeks, I will likely also release a November Power Rankings.

*I'm also thinking about while my power rankings for ESPN are only top 20s, to add my top 50 power rankings on here at some point as I know there is always the demand.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

x2 first round picks or a top five pick from West Coast is what Geelong should be asking for.

Seems a bit high but closer than what is being counter proposed by some.

Edit: can see you thought it was about Josh not Tim.

How long would you say before we could feasibly expect senior football, or not even expect per se, hope for, from Kreuger?

 

[Knightmare]

Seems a bit high but closer than what is being counter proposed by some.

Edit: can see you thought it was about Josh not Tim.

How long would you say before we could feasibly expect senior football, or not even expect per se, hope for, from Kreuger?

Tim Kelly is worth (in my view) a top 7-10 pick this year. He's terrific and so impressive already.

I'm not sure why I said pick 5 above.

As for Kreuger. He could push for games next year. No real standout option I wouldn't have thought for Geelong, so depends on whether his improvement continues. Has a shot.

 

[Knightmare]

October AFL Draft Power Rankings: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-knightmare-power-rankings-sa-jet-surges-no-2