Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

I wouldn't take any picks without being able to put a name to them.
The premium players look likely to be gone by that pick #8 which may end up being be a #9 or a #10.
Carlton currently have 36 senior players on the list and want BSilvagni on the main list. They wouldn't take, nor likely want, four picks anyway.
I understand that some can at a distance suggest that Carlton need as many picks as they can get, but this is really a very shallow view of the list and the management of a list as a whole. The CFC want premium players and not just more kids to play musical chairs with.

By the time live trading comes about, I wouldn't mind betting that several clubs at the top end get cold feet at least in this first year or two.
Can see live trading being pushed for that 34 and then maybe later in the first and second rounds.

I wouldn't be taking Silvagni late. He's more a rookie. Can take a grab, but just not a need with Carlton having double the KPPs they need.

At 8, I'm predicting one of Smith or B.King is there with Caldwell now expected to drop somewhere inside that top 7. Just with that knowledge, automatically I would in a heartbeat make the trades.

I have total respect for Hamish Ogilvie but he would lose me and I'd not hesitate to suggest every Adelaide supporter were he to be that foolhardy.
With respect even the notion you're putting forward is just plain ridiculous. Will not happen.

That range of picks in this particularly strong draft can set us up for the next decade and bring the age demographic of our list and top end talent down considerably.

I'd agree with you completely if those pick were offered for pick 1.

But with the knowledge Carlton take Walsh at 1. My offer from an Adelaide perspective would be to Gold Coast for the combination of picks 2+3 with the intent to snag Lukosius and Rankine. Every day I'm trading those picks for Lukosius and Rankine. I'd trade those picks and Adelaide's 2019 first rounder for those two.

 

[MartinLifts130]

I have total respect for Hamish Ogilvie but he would lose me and I'd not hesitate to suggest every Adelaide supporter were he to be that foolhardy.
With respect even the notion you're putting forward is just plain ridiculous. Will not happen.

That range of picks in this particularly strong draft can set us up for the next decade and bring the age demographic of our list and top end talent down considerably.

agree, absolutely ridiculous suggestion

 

[Cleric]

Getting an extra first round pick by going back 4 places in the draft is more than value.
Couldnt see the Crows doing more than 8 and 16.
Is Liam Stocker and Chayce Jones worth more than Rozee or Rankine alone? For a team rebuilding it certainly is.

 

[Heppellicious]

Hi Knightmare, after Dodoro heroics in securing shiel who do you think will slide to
34?

Out of bailey Williams, ohallaran, Ely smith, luke valente, Joyce, berry and bytel - who will be available?

Do you rate these guys at this pick?

 

[Knightmare]

Getting an extra first round pick by going back 4 places in the draft is more than value.
Couldnt see the Crows doing more than 8 and 16.
Is Liam Stocker and Chayce Jones worth more than Rozee or Rankine alone? For a team rebuilding it certainly is.

Rankine - no.

Rozee - yes.

Hi Knightmare, after Dodoro heroics in securing shiel who do you think will slide to
34?

Out of bailey Williams, ohallaran, Ely smith, luke valente, Joyce, berry and bytel - who will be available?

Do you rate these guys at this pick?

Bytel/Berry/Joyce I expect to be there. They may all slip into the latter portion of the draft.

The others are possible. Ely Smith and Valente probably not there. Williams/O'Halloran it's a toss of the coin.

If there, Smith and Valente I like. Williams/O'Halloran I'd be open to without being my preferences.

 

[Heppellicious]

Rankine - no.

Rozee - yes.



Bytel/Berry/Joyce I expect to be there. They may all slip into the latter portion of the draft.

The others are possible. Ely Smith and Valente probably not there. Williams/O'Halloran it's a toss of the coin.

If there, Smith and Valente I like. Williams/O'Halloran I'd be open to without being my preferences.

Thanks what's the knock on bytel
At the start of the year he was top
10 for some?

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks what's the knock on bytel
At the start of the year he was top
10 for some?

Poor ball user. Not overly quick. Is he good enough in a second position?

Has had his back issues which have led to a below expectation season.

One of the best pure stoppage players in the draft still though. Contested stuff/tackling is up there.

Still highly draftable and probably mid-late draft drops. Though sliding through isn't out of the question depending on how much clubs liked his 2017 season.

 

[BPikkers]

Who knows? Carlton may hit home runs with their two late picks?

Or maybe Adelaide or Port Adelaide cough up a combination of picks too good to refuse?

There is also the rookie draft that happens on the same day, so that will be included as part of my review this year. Maybe Carlton identify some good mature agers who can slot straight into the clubs best 22?

I'm not prepaired to write any club off still almost a month out from the draft.

When it comes to late picks it’s near impossible to give a club a rating on those selections.

 

[Peel67skin]

Getting an extra first round pick by going back 4 places in the draft is more than value.
Couldnt see the Crows doing more than 8 and 16.
Is Liam Stocker and Chayce Jones worth more than Rozee or Rankine alone? For a team rebuilding it certainly is.

Can't complain with this either
2 Lukosius
3 Rankine
6 Rozee/Caldwell / Smith
24 McLennan / Elly Smith / Xavier O’HALLORAN
29 Luke FOLEY/ Sydney STACK/Fraser TURNER/Will HAMILL/
Jack BYTEL/Jacob KENNERLEY/Marlion Pickett /Mitch Maguire .

 

[Knightmare]

When it comes to late picks it’s near impossible to give a club a rating on those selections.

If a club gets someone late/rookie who is inside my top 30, they'll be gaining my praise.

I'll rate based on relative value of selections based on my evaluations with all picks.

 

[SumTingWong]

Where do you expect koschitzke to go in the draft and can he play forward?

 

[Knightmare]

Can't complain with this either
2 Lukosius
3 Rankine
6 Rozee/Caldwell / Smith
24 McLennan / Elly Smith / Xavier O’HALLORAN
29 Luke FOLEY/ Sydney STACK/Fraser TURNER/Will HAMILL/
Jack BYTEL/Jacob KENNERLEY/Marlion Pickett /Mitch Maguire .

What if Rozee goes 3 instead of Rankine?

Agree Lukosius/Rankine is the best combination at 2/3 but will it happen?

What Gold Coast do with 24/29 feels very open and unclear.

Ned McHenry with the club's want for pressure/two way players I could see strongly considered in the 20s.

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you expect koschitzke to go in the draft and can he play forward?

Koschitzke I see as a second half of draft or possible rookie choice.

Hasn't played much forward. Looks more capable as a key back. Don't think as a forward he's good enough.

When drafting key forwards. You want someone really exceptional. It's not about getting numbers, it's about finding highly productive guys on the improve with points of difference. As a key forward, I'm not sure Koschitzke ticks any of those boxes.

Down back with his height, solid 1v1 game and taking the occasional mark. He feels a better chance.

 

[Cornelius Roy]

Hi Knightmare,

Do you have any mail from clubland about who certain clubs are keen on from pick 10 onwards?

Alot of top 10 talk as to be expected but outside of Gold Coast I think the teams that nail their picks in the 20-40 range this year are going to be the big winners long term.

 

[Peel67skin]

What if Rozee goes 3 instead of Rankine?

Agree Lukosius/Rankine is the best combination at 2/3 but will it happen?

What Gold Coast do with 24/29 feels very open and unclear.

Ned McHenry with the club's want for pressure/two way players I could see strongly considered in the 20s.

If GC go for long term Lukosius /Rozee and Caldwell are the best combination . Short term Lukosius and Rankine .

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,

Do you have any mail from clubland about who certain clubs are keen on from pick 10 onwards?

Alot of top 10 talk as to be expected but outside of Gold Coast I think the teams that nail their picks in the 20-40 range this year are going to be the big winners long term.

The top 10 isn't solidified yet with moving parts still and for all we know trades which further changes the complexion.

Typically after the top 10 it's a lot of guesswork even closer to the draft. You'll still get certain players linked to certain clubs but after the top 10, there is rarely anything definite other than father-son/academy matching.

The top 10 is where you're really expecting someone terrific this year. Clubs even nailing picks after that top 10 can be seen as doing well, with picks after 10 not certainties.

 

[Knightmare]

*On page one I have added my two round phantom draft and I have included my top 50 power rankings (October). Will update my top 50 power rankings when I release my top 20 for ESPN a week before the draft.

What many will find interesting is the heavy mature age theme.

My evaluation has the worth of mature age picks as roughly late second round in a historical context, so my power rankings really closely reflect that new greater weighting away from junior talent and towards mature age talent after that first 30 or so.

 

[Heaps of fun]

In before half of those names aren't called in the draft.

 

[Knightmare]

In before half of those names aren't called in the draft.

10-20 of them may not get picked with probably 10 of those guys not going to feature inside my final phantom draft. Power rankings isn't about predicting who gets picked or not, it's about listing off the best footballers and who is better in what order. A lot of these mature agers particularly have the games to earn immediate positions at AFL level in the right situations where there is a vacancy for someone who plays their preferred roles.

 

[Heaps of fun]

10-20 of them may not get picked with probably 10 of those guys not going to feature inside my final phantom draft. Power rankings isn't about predicting who gets picked or not, it's about listing off the best footballers and who is better in what order. A lot of these mature agers particularly have the games to earn immediate positions at AFL level in the right situations where there is a vacancy for someone who plays their preferred roles.

At the start of the year you called this the best draft you've covered since 2008 and a potential super draft and now you've got a top 50 full of mature aged reserves players that could have been picked up in any of the prior drafts. Doesn't really make sense to me. What changed?

 

[Bicks]

Interested in your views on Sandy Dragon Alastair Richards, the few times I've watched him play live he's impressed me with his speed, agility and dare, looks a very neat player with decent skills that offers good run and carry. Probably classed as more an outside player but seemed willing enough to get involved in the contest whenever he needed to.

 

[Knightmare]

At the start of the year you called this the best draft you've covered since 2008 and a potential super draft and now you've got a top 50 full of mature aged reserves players that could have been picked up in any of the prior drafts. Doesn't really make sense to me. What changed?

The top 10 is as good as I've ever seen. After that it reverts back to the norm. Still lots of good underrated prospects, and I could list another 30 of draft age I'd have no problem drafting, but ultimately I look at the mature agers if drafted as higher probability prospects as AFL players outside the system in what feels like diluted AFL lists with 1999/2000/2001/2006/2008 the best of the drafts we've seen. That combined with the addition of two more clubs and it feels like AFL lists aren't as strong as they once were, with a lot of state leaguers far outclassing a lot of those 'depth' and 'developing' types.

 

[Knightmare]

Interested in your views on Sandy Dragon Alastair Richards, the few times I've watched him play live he's impressed me with his speed, agility and dare, looks a very neat player with decent skills that offers good run and carry. Probably classed as more an outside player but seemed willing enough to get involved in the contest whenever he needed to.

Good pace and will provide run as you say. He's not soft and is a willing tackler, but he's a very outside type I find as with most outside types he lacks consistency (a 10 and a 9 disposal game to finish off the season) and it's only going to be harder for him to get his hands on it at AFL level.

He's someone who second half of draft I see receiving consideration.

 

[Knightmare]

And on the note of all those state leaguers featuring inside my top 50 power rankings. It's probably a good opportunity to provide some detail on some of the best state leaguers and why I rate them so highly: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25177491/afl-draft-best-state-league-options

 

[dockersfever]

Hey KM,
Was interested in the two bottom age BnF winners Dintinosante and Watts for their respective clubs.
Does it improve their stocks for 2019? Where would you have both going in that draft?
Neither were picked for the Metro Academy.