Prediction Ladder Prediction Thread

[dajesmac]

The ladder predictor is out: http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor

Always interesting to see how everyone rates our prospects this year and this year in particular it seems like an open race. After two rounds, I could see us anywhere from 2nd to 11th and will probably emotionally do a prediction every week to reflect how we went that particular round.

Here is what I've churned out after two rounds:

1) Western Bulldogs
2) Adelaide
3) GWS
4) Geelong
5) Port Adelaide
6) Hawthorn
7) Sydney
8) West Coast

9) Essendon
10) Melbourne
11) St Kilda
12) Richmond
13) Collingwood
14) North Melbourne
15) Gold Coast
16) Fremantle
17) Brisbane Lions
18) Carlton

The beauty of the predictor is that it takes into account fixture. I wouldn't have thought I rated Geelong so highly but they have a number of important games at Skilled in which I was inclined to tip them.

With regard to us, we have some real danger games this year including Richmond, Hawthorn, St Kilda and Essendon away. Then we have double ups against strong sides in Port, GWS and the Dogs. I fear if we haven't improved upon last year much we will struggle to win many of these which will greatly influence our finishing position. After two rounds, I'm not overly convinced we will win enough of these to crack the four.

 

[lewigie]

I don't reckon I'll be able to do it until about round 4 or 5.. I just had a crack then but it's still hard to tell who are the powerhouses this year and who are just having a good start IMO

 

[WCErevival]

I don't reckon I'll be able to do it until about round 4 or 5.. I just had a crack then but it's still hard to tell who are the powerhouses this year and who are just having a good start IMO

Yeah you have to wait until about mid season to get any accuracy from it

 

[Biggie]

Subscribed for later input.

 

[KO_KO]

1) GWS
2) WCE
3) Geelong
4) Western Bulldogs
5) Sydney
6) Port Adelaide
7) Adelaide
8) Melbourne

9) Hawthorn
10) Collingwood
11) Richmond
12) Essendon
13) St Kilda
14) North Melbourne
15) Brisbane Lions
16) Fremantle
17) Carlton
18) Gold Coast

Locked in

 

[lmach]

1. Adelaide - 72pts
2. GWS - 72pts
3. West Coast - 72pts
4. Bulldogs - 72pts
5. Essendon - 60pts
6. Sydney - 60pts
7. Port Adelaide - 56pts
8. Melbourne - 52pts

9. Geelong - 52pts
10. Hawthorn - 52pts
11. St Kilda - 44pts
12. Richmond - 32pts
13. Collingwood - 28pts
14. North Melb - 20pts
15. Brisbane - 16pts
16. Carlton - 12pts
17. Gold Coast - 12pts
Dead last. Fremantle - 8pts

Did one like a week ago that was completely different to this one, and I'll probably do one in a couple of weeks that is completely different again. I tried to pick a few upsets but it's always hard. I don't rate Geelong and I rate Sydney higher than three games outside the top four but that's just how it turned out. Obvious West Coast bias in 50/50 games too.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

1. GWS
2. Bulldogs
3. Adelaide
4. West Coast
5. Port Adelaide
6. Sydney
7. Richmond
8. Geelong

9. Hawthorn
10. St Kilda
11. Melbourne
12. Essendon
13. North Melbourne
14. Collingwood
15. Gold Coast
16. Fremantle
17. Carlton
18. Lions

GWS beating the Bulldogs in the Grand Final.

 

[ChampRevesby]

1. GWS
2. Bulldogs
3. Adelaide
4. West Coast
5. Port Adelaide
6. Sydney
7. Richmond
8. Geelong

9. Hawthorn
10. St Kilda
11. Melbourne
12. Essendon
13. North Melbourne
14. Collingwood
15. Gold Coast
16. Fremantle
17. Carlton
18. Lions

GWS beating the Bulldogs in the Grand Final.

Top 5-6 looks pretty spot on. I do think however that Adelaide will steal it this year.

 

[dajesmac]

I don't reckon I'll be able to do it until about round 4 or 5.. I just had a crack then but it's still hard to tell who are the powerhouses this year and who are just having a good start IMO

NO.

Perfect accuracy every time.

 

[dajesmac]

Round 5 Bump

1) Adelaide
2) Geelong
3) GWS Giants
4) Port Adelaide
5) Western Bulldogs
6) St Kilda
7) Richmond
8) Melbourne

9) Fremantle
10) West Coast
11) Sydney
12) Hawthorn
13) Gold Coast
14) Essendon
15) Collingwood
16) Brisbane Lions
17) North Melbourne
18) Carlton

 

[Gods_Son23]

Behind Freo? Damn!

 

[Carbine Chaos]

1. GWS
2. Bulldogs
3. Adelaide
4. West Coast
5. Port Adelaide
6. Sydney
7. Richmond
8. Geelong

9. Hawthorn
10. St Kilda
11. Melbourne
12. Essendon
13. North Melbourne
14. Collingwood
15. Gold Coast
16. Fremantle
17. Carlton
18. Lions

GWS beating the Bulldogs in the Grand Final.

Changed from the above to this...

1. GWS
2. Adelaide
3. Port Adelaide
4. Geelong
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Richmond
7. West Coast
8. Sydney

9. St Kilda
10. Hawthorn
11. Essendon
12. Gold Coast
13. Melbourne
14. Collingwood
15. North Melbourne
16. Fremantle
17. Brisbane
18. Carlton

GWS beating Adelaide in the Grand Final.

 

[06Premiers]

18. WCE

Full melt engaged.

 

[eaglesfan84]

1. Adelaide
2. Geelong
3. GWS
4. Bulldogs
5. Richmond
6. Port Adelaide
7. Fremantle
8. West Coast

9. Melbourne
10. Hawthorn
11. St Kilda
12. Essendon
13. Collingwood
14. Sydney
15. Gold Coast
16. North Melbourne
17. Brisbane
18. Carlton

Any of the top 5 teams capable this year but im predicting Geelong v Adelaide GF.

 

[lmach]

1. Adelaide - 72pts
2. GWS - 72pts
3. West Coast - 72pts
4. Bulldogs - 72pts
5. Essendon - 60pts
6. Sydney - 60pts
7. Port Adelaide - 56pts
8. Melbourne - 52pts

9. Geelong - 52pts
10. Hawthorn - 52pts
11. St Kilda - 44pts
12. Richmond - 32pts
13. Collingwood - 28pts
14. North Melb - 20pts
15. Brisbane - 16pts
16. Carlton - 12pts
17. Gold Coast - 12pts
18. Fremantle - 8pts

Did one like a week ago that was completely different to this one, and I'll probably do one in a couple of weeks that is completely different again. I tried to pick a few upsets but it's always hard. I don't rate Geelong and I rate Sydney higher than three games outside the top four but that's just how it turned out. Obvious West Coast bias in 50/50 games too.

You're an idiot.

 

[dajesmac]

A crucial block of four games coming up:

Western Bulldogs @ Domain
Essendon @ Etihad
GWS @ Domain
Gold Coast @ Metricon

Three of those four are genuine 50/50 games with the exception of probably Essendon. A run of 4-0 or even 3-1 would set us up extremely well sitting either 9-2 or 8-3, probably in second or third going into the bye. A run of 2-2 or worse will be close to zapping our top four chances.

I'm going to back us in and say we will go 3-1, losing just the Metricon game.

 

[eaglesfan84]

A crucial block of four games coming up:

Western Bulldogs @ Domain
Essendon @ Etihad
GWS @ Domain
Gold Coast @ Metricon

Three of those four are genuine 50/50 games with the exception of probably Essendon. A run of 4-0 or even 3-1 would set us up extremely well sitting either 9-2 or 8-3, probably in second or third going into the bye. A run of 2-2 or worse will be close to zapping our top four chances.

I'm going to back us in and say we will go 3-1, losing just the Metricon game.

I'd say we are most likely to drop the bulldogs game. Historically you don't want to drop any more than 4 games. Dropping 5 or 6 games could put you on the fringe of top 4 and you will be relying on % and ours is poor atm.

If we drop 2 more games before the bye it's highly unlikely we'll finish top 4. Really need to go to the bye without losing another game. That will mean we can afford to drop 2 games in the latter half of the season and still push top 2. We'll need to win 9 out of 11 games though. Will be tough.