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Ladder Predictor

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Catsmaninamerica

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just completed the ladder predictor. I have the Cats finishing 2nd. We wont drop another game for the year imo - possibly Freo at Skilled, but if we rest players who are hurting now by then we will be ok i think. Swans finish 1st, Freo 3rd, and I have Gold Coast finishing 4th. Then Port Adelaide 5th (tough run home) Collingwood 6, Hawthorn 7 and Norf coming in 8th.

Would love to see where you guys have us finish. Go on. Have a crack. Lets see what you come up with!
http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor
 
Just looking at the draws, I think Sydney and Freo will be top two, with Port third and us and the Hawks fighting it out for fourth. We'll need to beat two of North, Hawthorn and Freo to make it.
 
All hinges on our games versus Hawthorn, North and Freo. Hawthorn are the only team of those three that I'm confident of beating. I won't believe we can beat this Freo side until we do it and North at Etihad always trouble us. I think we'll lose another 2-3 games for the year and remain 5th or 6th.

Sydney and Freo top 2 and eventual grand finalists (sadly) for me.
 
That we have to beat all of Freo, NM, and Hawks to finish top 4 , I think is beyond us this year- 5th for me.
I'm hoping we can beat the Dogs- that will be a challenge in itself.
 
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Vdubs said:
That we have to beat all of Freo, NM, and Hawks to finish top 4 , I think is beyond us this year- 5th for me.
I'm hoping we an beat the Dogs- that will be a challenge in itself.
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Why do they have to beat them all? They're only 4 points back. Those teams could easily drop games too.
 
Catsmaninamerica said:
just completed the ladder predictor. I have the Cats finishing 2nd. We wont drop another game for the year imo - possibly Freo at Skilled, but if we rest players who are hurting now by then we will be ok i think. Swans finish 1st, Freo 3rd, and I have Gold Coast finishing 4th. Then Port Adelaide 5th (tough run home) Collingwood 6, Hawthorn 7 and Norf coming in 8th.

Would love to see where you guys have us finish. Go on. Have a crack. Lets see what you come up with!
http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor
Click to expand...

When I did it last week , I had us playing Freo over there in W1 , Hawks playing Swans in W1 both games have the potential to have the same PF's as last year ...ie if Hawks manage to beat Swans in W1 , that would mean a Melb PF and a loss in W1 would not be as bad. I had Port just dropping away a little , but who knows. As North beating Hawks can show , its still to far from home to be sure. We play North,Freo, Blues,Bris who have all cause us issues in past
 
bigfarter said:
All hinges on our games versus Hawthorn, North and Freo. Hawthorn are the only team of those three that I'm confident of beating. I won't believe we can beat this Freo side until we do it and North at Etihad always trouble us. I think we'll lose another 2-3 games for the year and remain 5th or 6th.

Sydney and Freo top 2 and eventual grand finalists (sadly) for me.
Click to expand...
This sort of pessimism almost makes me want to throw up.
 
Seeds said:
Its VDUBS. If the ant people invaded he would be the first to lay down his arms and bow to our new ant overlords.
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One Hawthorn loss and you think we'll be top 4!?
Good on you for your thoughts. I don't see Geelong at this stage as a top 4 team, but there is plenty of time to rectify that. NM was desperate, Hawks could not have had a worse lead up to this game. This is nothing to do with pessimism, we are where we are position and % wise for reasons obvious to MOST , but if circumstances keep presenting that lead us to tip one of those top 4 teams OUT, great.
 
Vdubs said:
One Hawthorn loss and you think we'll be top 4!?
Good on you for your thoughts. I don't see Geelong at this stage as a top 4 team, but there is plenty of time to rectify that. NM was desperate, Hawks could not have had a worse lead up to this game. This is nothing to do with pessimism, we are where we are position and % wise for reasons obvious to MOST , but if circumstances keep presenting that lead us to tip one of those top 4 teams OUT, great.
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Classic Vdubs post. Hope you never change.
 

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Seeds said:
Classic Vdubs post. Hope you never change.
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I take that as not a negative?
Anyway, at this stage of my 6th decade of life, I fear there is very little I can do to change. Reading posts here that are so different to my way of thinking is definitely beneficial.
 
Top four is quite possible for geelong. At the moment we are equal on points with Hawthorn and Freemantle. We play two games against the top four and the top four plays a lot of games between themselves

Danger games

Port-1 game ahead

Vs Collingwood(A) round 19
Vs Sydney(H) round 20
Vs Suns(A) round 21
Vs Freemantle(A) round 23

Sydney-1 game ahead

Vs Hawthorn(A) round 18
Vs Port(A) round 20

Hawthorn-same points

Vs Sydney(H) round 18
Vs Freemantle(A) round 21
Vs Geelong(H) round 22

Freemantle-same points

Vs Geelong(A) round 20
Vs Hawthorn(H) round 21
Vs Port(H) round 23

Geelong

Vs North(A) round 19
Vs Fremantle(H) round 20
Vs Hawthron(A) round 22

Assuming that all teams with all of there other games that are not listed we can lose one game to either Fremante or Hawthorn
as long as the team that we beat has a poor run.

Both Fremantle and Hawthorn have three danger games. Geelong,Hawhtorh and Fremantle all play each other, a lot of 8 points games on the line.

Example we Beat Fremantle but Lose to Hawthorn
IF Fremantle lose to Hawthorn or to port, we make the finals
Example we Beat Hawthorn but Lose to Fremantle
IF Hawthorn lose to Sydney or to Freemantle, we make the finals

if we win both we make it if we lose both, they would have to drop there third danger game and an additional game.

Both Hawthorn and Fremantle have an equally bad run home there is a good chance that we will finish fourth, but if we lose to North, it all becomes irrelevant.
 
The Swans and Freo have dream run homes - they'll finish 1 and 2, with Port and Hawks 3, 4.

I put us down with two losses for the rest of the year (Hawks and Freo), finishing 5th due to our poor %, with an Elimination Final against the Pies.

But another loss (possibly to North), could see us drop to 6th, up against Gold Coast.
 

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For us to finish top 4, let alone top 2, we're going to have to playing a helluva lot better than we're now

They way we have been playing the last 2 months, we're not a top 4 team and it wouldn't surprise me if we dropped games we shouldn't. Also we won't beat Norf at Edihad or Freo in our current form.
 
Seeds said:
This sort of pessimism almost makes me want to throw up.
Click to expand...

Re: Freo it's not pessimism. I apply the same logic our way for Hawthorn. I won't believe Hawthorn can beat us until they prove they can on a consistent basis - the fact we got so close in the Prelim when we had no real right to just reinforced that. Sadly, this current Freo team well and truly have the wood over us, their players are in our heads and they know how to exploit our vulnerabilities. Like we do to Hawthorn. It's not pessimism, it's objectively watching games of football.

Believe me, I'd love nothing more than for us to make Top 4 and make a run at the Grand Final but on exposed form it's a fantasy. We have time to turn things around and some wins against Freo, Hawthorn and North going into finals would have the competition (and me) re-evaluating our chances this year so hopefully we can pull those wins off.
 
bulletproof said:
Hard to see anything other than a Freo v Sydney Grand Final.
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