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List analysis and future directions

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I thought with the 2011 draft now complete it may be an opportunity to take stock, examine our current list - where we are strong, what type of players may need to target in the coming years and what a future team may look a little like.

Firstly lets look at our current list and sort it into positions and identify players that are potentially within the last 4 years of playing. I will use 4 years as it allows us to be certain in eliminating quite a few players (i.e Scarlett, Chapman) but also starts to bring into view the players taken from the 2001 draft which represent such an important group for the success we have enjoyed over the past 5 years. Using 4 years also gives the club a reasonable period to draft and develop players to replace these greats of the club.

List: (inspired by Emma Quayle's article a week or so ago)

Tall Backs:

Scarlett*
Lonergan*
Taylor
Gillies
Hamling
Bathie (r)

Small/Medium Backs:

Enright*
J.Hunt*
Wojcinski*
Mackie
T.Hunt
Smedts
Bews
Cowan

Midfielders:

Bartel*
Corey*
Kelly*
Selwood
Christensen
Duncan
Guthrie
Varcoe
Hogan
Horlin-Smith
Murdoch
Schroder
Simpkin (r)
Stringer (r)

Tall Forwards:

Podsiadly*
Hawkins
Brown
Kersten
Walker (r)

Small/Medium Forwards:

S.Johnson*
Chapman*
Stokes*
Byrnes*
Motlop
Burbury (r)
Menzel
McCarthy
Motlop

Ruckmen:

D.Simpson
Vardy
West
Stephensen*


As you can see Wells has been quite clever in not only (hopefully) bringing new talent into the club but has a definite program in identifying the areas of the list that are going to suffer from retirements over the next 4 years. His emphasis on mids in last years draft was no doubt inspired in part at least by the impending retirements of Ling (now gone), Corey, Kelly and Bartel. The last 2 still have a fair bit of footy left in them, and may well go on for longer, but their retirements still has to be planned for now.

If we were to assume that all our draftees would "make it" and that all of our astrixed players will have retired in 4 years (I know this won't happen but go with me here!) then a potential team, not taking any future draftees into account at this stage may look like:

B: Bews, Gillies, Hamling
HB: Mackie, Taylor, Smedts
C: Duncan, Guthrie, Murdoch
HF: Menzel, Hawkins, Varcoe
F: Motlop, Kersten, Brown

Foll: Vardy, Selwood, Christensen

Int: West, T.Hunt, Cowan, Horlin-Smith

Emerg: D.Simpson, Shroder, McCarthy

So 14 players from our current list were not considered. Rookies weren't either.

From the above team by 2015 only really Taylor and Mackie will be in the second half of their careers.


What does all this mean?

That our list is in great shape. Out forwardline in particular looks as if it will be potentially potent for years with a lot of young firepower.

We have some challenges though. We have a lot of players currently 28 and over and a lot of players 23 and under. There is not much in between. We are basing our future on a lot of draftees that were taken well outside the top 10 of the draft and that have either played very little or no senior footy as yet. Will this eventually take it's toll or will Wells, yet again, have drafted some late gems?

That we probably will need to be looking for KPD's and another ruckman or even 2 in the near future. These appear to still be the 2 areas of greatest need. Gillies, although named above, has at this stage not shown he is up to AFL level as a KPD. The club though showed faith in him by refusing to trade him this year to Hawthorn.

Inside midfielders will also be a priority. From the team above really only Selwood and Christensen have demonstrated a quality inside game. Losing Corey, Ling and Kelly will be huge. We need to still continue to restock with quality inside mids.

Next years draft has been labelled already one for the ages. We will probably lose Scarlett, Chapman, Corey and Wojcinski. I would imagine that Hogan has one more year to prove himself. I don't think we will lose anyone of quality to GWS. So we may well be taking another 5 players next year.

I'm calling it early - we will take 1 ruckman, another KPDer and 3 midfielders!!
 
That is an excellent assessment of the list YOTC.

Only thing I would do or emphasise that would be different - is I am looking more short term - when I know Bartel, Kelly, etc aged players will still be around. Next 2-4 years.

Scarlett gone - Corey gone - Wojo gone. But not for a season or two will they all be gone.

Can we win another Premiership in this time - and become the greatest AFL club based on results ?

So for us in the short term to continue the success we needed another ruckman. It would have been remiss not to rectify this area if we wanted to go back to back.

At the same time as you pointed out - we have enough talent in the twos to expect at least 3-4 will make it in the next 2-4 years. Probably more.

And we need a KP backman coming thru as you stated. Scarlett will be a big loss - but we have now maybe 3 possible replacements being played and looked at now - one more would not hurt.

But as I have written before the loss of Ling and Corey sooner rather than later we are in need of some mids with some size, lots of run and can get plenty of the ball. That is a hard combo to replace. So some more mids are needed re drafting to ensure we keep having some talent coming thru.

However the list looks very good to me - and with few injuries, another pre-season and some good player management - we could be right up there for the next 2-4 years.

And we will probably get Jordan Bourke next season - and a decent pick left with the second Ablett compensatory pick being used. If the draft is good and this pick (around ) 15 - surely Wells will get a good new recruit for us next season as well.

On reviewing on paper the list looks like the club has provided enough choices for all the positions in the team - with quite a few showing good signs. And if a few 1-2 year draftees make it next year - then we are fine shape indeed.

No side is perfect - we just have to be good enough across the park to win enough H&A and finals matches to be a serious threat.

Not a lot has to go right for us to win again - while many clubs need a lot to go right to win a Premiership next season. And we have the list to potentially keep filling retirement's shoes.

Short term looks good and even the mid term outlook seems pretty good to me given who we have drafted in the last 3 years.

(Bull on Cats - Bear on everything else).
 
B: Bews, Gillies, Hamling
HB: Mackie, Taylor, Smedts
C: Duncan, Guthrie, Murdoch
HF: Menzel, Hawkins, Varcoe
F: Motlop, Kersten, Brown

Foll: Vardy, Selwood, Christensen

Int: West, T.Hunt, Cowan, Horlin-Smith

Emerg: D.Simpson, Shroder, McCarthy

B: Mackie, Hamling, Gillies
HB: T.Hunt, Taylor, Smedts
C: Duncan, Guthrie, Murdoch
HF: Menzel, Vardy, Varcoe
F: Motlop, Hawkins, Brown

Foll: Simpson, Selwood, Christensen

Int: West, Bews, Cowan, Bourke
Dont know how to include Horlin smilth, Kerstain, Schroder + if we have anouther good draft.

I only think the problem is we havnt had any high picks to get a player like Bartel, Selwood, Abblet, superstars that are in the top 10 in the AFL. Although Chapman was a lower pick and maybe we get one like that.
 
I only think the problem is we havnt had any high picks to get a player like Bartel, Selwood, Abblet, superstars that are in the top 10 in the AFL. Although Chapman was a lower pick and maybe we get one like that.

Im banking on the club to try and make a play for Dangerfield. Would solve the star problem, good age for our list, and can play as the inside/outside mid. Would love to see him in the hoops
 

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What does all this mean?

That our list is in great shape. Out forwardline in particular looks as if it will be potentially potent for years with a lot of young firepower.

We have some challenges though. We have a lot of players currently 28 and over and a lot of players 23 and under. There is not much in between. We are basing our future on a lot of draftees that were taken well outside the top 10 of the draft and that have either played very little or no senior footy as yet. Will this eventually take it's toll or will Wells, yet again, have drafted some late gems?

That we probably will need to be looking for KPD's and another ruckman or even 2 in the near future. These appear to still be the 2 areas of greatest need. Gillies, although named above, has at this stage not shown he is up to AFL level as a KPD. The club though showed faith in him by refusing to trade him this year to Hawthorn.

Inside midfielders will also be a priority. From the team above really only Selwood and Christensen have demonstrated a quality inside game. Losing Corey, Ling and Kelly will be huge. We need to still continue to restock with quality inside mids.

Next years draft has been labelled already one for the ages. We will probably lose Scarlett, Chapman, Corey and Wojcinski. I would imagine that Hogan has one more year to prove himself. I don't think we will lose anyone of quality to GWS. So we may well be taking another 5 players next year.

I'm calling it early - we will take 1 ruckman, another KPDer and 3 midfielders!!
Awesome work mate, and basically agree with that analysis. Schroder's the only other real inside mid we've got; reckon he's set to play a bit of senior footy next year after building up his fitness this season. From Scotty's comments I think it's clear the club is going to try and give players like Duncan a more inside game, but at least one more solid inside prospect would be nice. That said those are the kind of players that tend to go cheap, so we won't necessarily have to spend a fortune on him.
 
Im banking on the club to try and make a play for Dangerfield. Would solve the star problem, good age for our list, and can play as the inside/outside mid. Would love to see him in the hoops


I'm pretty sure he will come next year
 
Tall Backs:

Scarlett*Lonergan*
Taylor
GilliesHamling
Bathie (r)

Small/Medium Backs:

Enright*
J.Hunt*
Wojcinski*
MackieT.Hunt
Smedts
Bews
Cowan

These three bolded players are the same height and in Gillies and Mackies case the same weight
Incidental Taylor is only 1cm or this much (--) taller.Are you sure Mackie is a small medium.

Other than that a very good assessment and well put together.
 
Tall Backs:

Scarlett*Lonergan*
Taylor
GilliesHamling
Bathie (r)

Small/Medium Backs:

Enright*
J.Hunt*
Wojcinski*
MackieT.Hunt
Smedts
Bews
Cowan

These three bolded players are the same height and in Gillies and Mackies case the same weight
Incidental Taylor is only 1cm or this much (--) taller.Are you sure Mackie is a small medium.

Other than that a very good assessment and well put together.

With Mackie, aside from when he went to Buddy a couple of years ago, he generally plays as a running, creative backman on a smaller opponent - you rarely see him on a key forward other than in a rotation capacity on someone like Riewoldt. I don't think we will ever be able to rely on him with his body type being able to consistently take a power forward.
 
Awesome work mate, and basically agree with that analysis. Schroder's the only other real inside mid we've got; reckon he's set to play a bit of senior footy next year after building up his fitness this season. From Scotty's comments I think it's clear the club is going to try and give players like Duncan a more inside game, but at least one more solid inside prospect would be nice. That said those are the kind of players that tend to go cheap, so we won't necessarily have to spend a fortune on him.

Thanks for the praise!

You are right about Schroder - he certainly appears to have a good inside game even though we haven't yet seen him debut at AFL level. I would think that this year he will be given that opportunity when a Corey or Kelly may be rested.

I don't know anything about the 2012 draftees - I would assume though that adding to that inside midfield group will be a priority.
 
B: Mackie, Hamling, Gillies
HB: T.Hunt, Taylor, Smedts
C: Duncan, Guthrie, Murdoch
HF: Menzel, Vardy, Varcoe
F: Motlop, Hawkins, Brown

Foll: Simpson, Selwood, Christensen

Int: West, Bews, Cowan, Bourke
Dont know how to include Horlin smilth, Kerstain, Schroder + if we have anouther good draft.

I only think the problem is we havnt had any high picks to get a player like Bartel, Selwood, Abblet, superstars that are in the top 10 in the AFL. Although Chapman was a lower pick and maybe we get one like that.


And I thought I was being harsh leaving West only on the bench!!

You can still draft superstars outside the top 10 - it's just that much harder. It's too early to tell with the 2010 draftees but the 2009 crop look pretty good at this early stage. If we can bring through the likes of Smedts, Horlin-Smith, Guthrie and Shroder (or even 2 of them) then we will go a long way towards renewing our team.

Add Kersten and perhaps Hamling or Murdoch and we have at least a framework to build upon. The next couple of drafts I would think would be about continuing to add to our midfield depth, adding another ruckman and perhaps adding another key defender, depending on how Bathie, Hamling, Gillies and Walker may develop. We now have options here though.

This of course does not take into account any trading we may do. Traditionally though we tend to develop our own. Some appear confident that we will go hard for Dangerfield. I'm not so sure that we will or that he will want to come even if we do.
 
That is an excellent assessment of the list YOTC.

Only thing I would do or emphasise that would be different - is I am looking more short term - when I know Bartel, Kelly, etc aged players will still be around. Next 2-4 years.

Scarlett gone - Corey gone - Wojo gone. But not for a season or two will they all be gone.

Can we win another Premiership in this time - and become the greatest AFL club based on results ?

I reckon we can definitely win next years flag. The loss of Ottens and Ling will be enormous though. Much depends on how our youngsters continue to develop. If we can see Christensen, Duncan and hopefully Vardy continue to improve and not see too much of a decline in the likes of Chapman and Corey we are in with a shot.

Chappy showed signs this year that the end is nigh. His body just seems to be struggling now. Hopefully he can defy the norm and have a better 2012 than he did in 2011 as Corey did this year.
 
With Mackie, aside from when he went to Buddy a couple of years ago, he generally plays as a running, creative backman on a smaller opponent - you rarely see him on a key forward other than in a rotation capacity on someone like Riewoldt. I don't think we will ever be able to rely on him with his body type being able to consistently take a power forward.


So what your saying then is Gillies can, on what basis, doesn't make sense.
I'll back Mackie anyday over Gillies.
 
So what your saying then is Gillies can, on what basis, doesn't make sense.
I'll back Mackie anyday over Gillies.

No not at all. I am not a fan (at this stage anyway) of Gillies - just that IF he does make it he is more physically built to play key position than Mackie. Doesn't mean that he will. I'm with you at the moment - I would take Mackie any day over Gillies as well - but at the same time I still don't want Mackie playing that role. Hope that make sense.
 

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Its good to look at these things but certainly not worth getting too precise with them. Too much can change in 1 or 2 years let alone 4. I commend the effort thou , its well thought out. And as you have said you have not included future players , although Id be tempted to at least put Bourke as an emg.

Im not sure Id really want to include any players from the 2011 draft till id seen them play but thats me. Some really are rated and others not so much, for eg LMac did not get in your team yet ironically its late picks of his type that usually works. Ie Stokes who was not rated even by Thompson. For mine Kirsten is the one Id like to see life before getting carried away with.

For mine Im not sure why we would rule out Lonergan but not Mackie , both the same draft. Unless its kidney related they both may still be playing.
I would say Walker and/or Bathie have good chances of being players in 4 years time as well. Bathie is probably similar to Orren , late starter and will be really hit his straps in his late 20's. I like what I have seen of Walker , not prefect but who is.
Hypen would be one of the most talented players on our list , (imo) in another two years of preseasons will be a very good player for us.

As you have said , if a quality young Ruck is pickable or gettable in the next couple years we will probably be very tempted

Overall it sure gives us hope for the coming years.
 
No not at all. I am not a fan (at this stage anyway) of Gillies - just that IF he does make it he is more physically built to play key position than Mackie. Doesn't mean that he will. I'm with you at the moment - I would take Mackie any day over Gillies as well - but at the same time I still don't want Mackie playing that role. Hope that make sense.

Yeah that makes sence

I think this is deja vu from last off season,I don't see either of them as permanent tall key position backs.
We know Mackie can fill in at a pinch,and who knows may be Gillies can too,but neither will become Geelongs next FB or CHB. in my opinion.And I'm not suggesting you are.
We addressed our short term Ruck deficiency I hope with the Big O.
The other gaping hole I see is if we lose Lonnergan for an extended period.There's not much cover there.
 
Its good to look at these things but certainly not worth getting too precise with them. Too much can change in 1 or 2 years let alone 4. I commend the effort thou , its well thought out. And as you have said you have not included future players , although Id be tempted to at least put Bourke as an emg.

Im not sure Id really want to include any players from the 2011 draft till id seen them play but thats me. Some really are rated and others not so much, for eg LMac did not get in your team yet ironically its late picks of his type that usually works. Ie Stokes who was not rated even by Thompson. For mine Kirsten is the one Id like to see life before getting carried away with.

For mine Im not sure why we would rule out Lonergan but not Mackie , both the same draft. Unless its kidney related they both may still be playing.

Fair point. Slip up on my behalf. Mackie has got such a baby face I think of him as being younger than he really is.

The team was really just a bit of fun and in all reality won't bare much resemblance I dare say to what we will actually see in 2015. It was more just to demonstrate that we have quite a balanced group of younger players positionally.

I would say Walker and/or Bathie have good chances of being players in 4 years time as well. Bathie is probably similar to Orren , late starter and will be really hit his straps in his late 20's. I like what I have seen of Walker , not prefect but who is.
Hypen would be one of the most talented players on our list , (imo) in another two years of preseasons will be a very good player for us.

As you have said , if a quality young Ruck is pickable or gettable in the next couple years we will probably be very tempted

Overall it sure gives us hope for the coming years.

I would love to see one or both of Walker and Bathie come through. They physically have the size to play that KPD role that we will need.

Horlin-Smith is one I find hard to judge at the moment. I look forward to seeing a bit of him this year - he will get a run early in the NAB cup and could push for a senior game at some stage. He is more an outside player though isn't he?
 
JUst looking at the list - it seems quite balanced with regard to positions on the field.

Then we look at the age of players and I still think the list is not bad at all.

Yes one KPD, another ruckman and then a few mids - will boost the stocks - given we have an aging list of champions.

So as pointed out by others we will go back to the more traditional Well's picks - strong mids - with an eye out for a KPD and a young ruckman.

If it turns out Bourke does join us - then we even has less need to look for a KPF - even with Pods going in 2-3 years time.

Of course we might even trade for some player who really suits our needs given free agency will come into being - but that is a real unknown how the whole free agency will change the landscape of trading and drafting.

I am assuming that all the good assessments I have read, and Well's ability to regularly pick winners, we will get at least 2 players from this draft (new rookies included) that will go on and be productive senior players for us.
 
This analysis is excellent - and despite the groans this will cause - just makes so much sense over the next 4 years if Nathan Ablett could get his act together playing as a tall defender. Agree that Dangerfield looks like a pretty special fit into this list.
 
This analysis is excellent - and despite the groans this will cause - just makes so much sense over the next 4 years if Nathan Ablett could get his act together playing as a tall defender. Agree that Dangerfield looks like a pretty special fit into this list.

Attitude aside, I'm not sure Nathan has the speed off the mark to play as a KPD.

Dangerfield would be a great get but would cost an arm and a leg. Depending on what sort of year he has next year it could be our first pick and our compo pick. In an apparently golden draft it would be too much to give up I think. As they say you have to give something to get something - the cost in this case may be too high.
 

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Hopefully Dangerfield keeps up his inconsistent form; preventing us from having to give up an 'arm and a leg'. I believe this inconsistency stems from the fact that too much is expected of him at such an early age (eg. 'will be the next roo'), he is only 21 remembering he was drafted early as a 17 year old.

Furthermore, IMO, he is surrounded by a pretty unsupporting midfield. Personally I think he is worth the Ablett compensation and a second round pick/half decent player.

If he has an outstanding year I would would be tentative in giving up our 2 first round picks, especially with what Wells should get out of such a good draft. I agree we usually dont trade but its not often an Ottens or hopefully a Dangerfield is up for grabs

Anyway getting back on topic and not trying to convince you all, all this talk about immediate need for KPD's has been forgotten and compounded by the Drum retirement.Would loved to have seen him injury free. Here's hoping we don't get injuries to scarlett, taylor, lonergan
 
I reckon we can definitely win next years flag. The loss of Ottens and Ling will be enormous though. Much depends on how our youngsters continue to develop. If we can see Christensen, Duncan and hopefully Vardy continue to improve and not see too much of a decline in the likes of Chapman and Corey we are in with a shot.

Chappy showed signs this year that the end is nigh. His body just seems to be struggling now. Hopefully he can defy the norm and have a better 2012 than he did in 2011 as Corey did this year.

I wouldn't necessarily say that. While I agree there were worrying signs the way AFL is becoming more and more an endurance game now, the reality is you miss most of the pre season and no matter how long you've been in the system or how good you are you'll be playing catchup all year and are likely to have a comparatively poor year. Given that he missed basically the whole pre season and came in round 2 off only 1 practice match, Chapman was always going to struggle and did well to give us the output he did this year.

I'm not saying your predicted trend won't continue, but an injury free pre season could well change that.

Back on the OP, great effort.

The list is reasonably balanced. Obviously given impending backline retirements we really need Gillies to turn his form around or Walker and Bathie to push themselves forward for elevation. Taylor Hunt needs to continue to progress, but he's shown good signs, Guthrie's decision making impresses me everytime I see him play, and Smedts is obviously to come so we've got a fair bit to work with.

I do agree with jester that we could use another inside mid or two at some point although they wouldn't be my first priority, partly because of low cost as he stated, but also because those guys are the ones that can often come in and play without a long lead time (unless they are really slight when drafted). By contrast you need to give your spine talls and your rucks time, so we will probably look towards some good ones next year you'd think, with an eye to them being ready for when guys like Lonergan retire.

One thing I like is that Wells has drafted a lot of guys with positional versatility which will really help the way the game is going-i.e. Smedts can play anywhere, Guthrie back or midfield, Taylor Hunt likewise, guys like Duncan and Bundy are gold with their ability to be creative when up forward yet still bat as part of your genuine midfield rotation, as if they keep the sub rule how it is I think you'll find it becomes harder and harder to carry small forwards who have no positional versatility (i.e. mid rotation ability) unless they are genuinely elite at the position, but guys who can play both quite well will be very useful. The positional versatility will also assist with moving new players where they need to be moved as certain players retire.

The list is in quite good shape, obviously we have many retirements coming soon and as such it's unrealistic to expect no change in onfield results, but the future is quite sustainable. So long as we can gradually feed the new players in, as Scott has started this year, and keep developing them well, the future looks very bright.
 
I wouldn't necessarily say that. While I agree there were worrying signs the way AFL is becoming more and more an endurance game now, the reality is you miss most of the pre season and no matter how long you've been in the system or how good you are you'll be playing catchup all year and are likely to have a comparatively poor year. Given that he missed basically the whole pre season and came in round 2 off only 1 practice match, Chapman was always going to struggle and did well to give us the output he did this year.

I'm not saying your predicted trend won't continue, but an injury free pre season could well change that.

I hope you are right. He has been such a crucial contributor to our success. If we are to challenge again in 2012 we need him.

Back on the OP, great effort.

The list is reasonably balanced. Obviously given impending backline retirements we really need Gillies to turn his form around or Walker and Bathie to push themselves forward for elevation. Taylor Hunt needs to continue to progress, but he's shown good signs, Guthrie's decision making impresses me everytime I see him play, and Smedts is obviously to come so we've got a fair bit to work with.

I do agree with jester that we could use another inside mid or two at some point although they wouldn't be my first priority, partly because of low cost as he stated, but also because those guys are the ones that can often come in and play without a long lead time (unless they are really slight when drafted). By contrast you need to give your spine talls and your rucks time, so we will probably look towards some good ones next year you'd think, with an eye to them being ready for when guys like Lonergan retire.

One thing I like is that Wells has drafted a lot of guys with positional versatility which will really help the way the game is going-i.e. Smedts can play anywhere, Guthrie back or midfield, Taylor Hunt likewise, guys like Duncan and Bundy are gold with their ability to be creative when up forward yet still bat as part of your genuine midfield rotation, as if they keep the sub rule how it is I think you'll find it becomes harder and harder to carry small forwards who have no positional versatility (i.e. mid rotation ability) unless they are genuinely elite at the position, but guys who can play both quite well will be very useful. The positional versatility will also assist with moving new players where they need to be moved as certain players retire.

The list is in quite good shape, obviously we have many retirements coming soon and as such it's unrealistic to expect no change in onfield results, but the future is quite sustainable. So long as we can gradually feed the new players in, as Scott has started this year, and keep developing them well, the future looks very bright.

When I was placing each of the players into groups it was quite a difficult exercise. As you say a lot of our players are very versatile and can play at both ends. Smedts, Duncan, Menzel, Guthrie in particular are very versatile. It would have to be more than just coincidence that we have drafted these types.

Scarlett is the obviously the hardest to replace. In fact he is irreplaceable. We have a couple of options with Gillies and Bathie (I see Walker as more of a CHB if he is to play back). 2012 will be a year that these 3 will be hopefully continuing to progress and show an ability to take over a key defensive post in 2013. Bathie is the one that looks to have the goods at the moment - good contested mark, nice footskills, good speed of the mark at a nice height to compete with the larger forwards. Whether he can become that General that Scarlett was is another thing altogether - though with Mackie, Enright and Taylor we still have plenty of experience and leadership for a little while to come.
 
I agree with you PO, but would add 2 things - 1. I would say undoubtedly that Schroder and now McCarthy have been drafted as inside midfielders long term, and 2. The club seems to be looking at where the zone and game style will be heading and has decided endurance, speed and height will be at a premium as the game style develops. It like our midfield size is splitting between muscled up or highly skilled shorter guys and much taller runners moving in and out of the mid rotation, the flanks and down back. If thats the case, then the last 3 drafts have delivered on that level really well.
 
Chapman slowing?..........didn't he place second to James Kelly for the most possessions for last season.
 

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