Analysis Losing last quarters

[mic59]

We had lost 2 out of 3 and tied one after 3 rounds. In 2013 we lost 7 last quarters only and in 2013 only 8. Not really a problem after those 3 rounds as the Swans played some kind of a defensive game, Q4 against Freo was only by 10 points and we tied North Melbourne. However, Saturday's showed there may be cause for worry. Do you consider it is too early to worry or does there seem to be a trend? If the latter what would you suggest as the most likely cause :

1. Over-training in the preseason?

2. Bad management of players in the NAB challenge, giving some first choice players no or little match practice?

3. ASADA action affecting the development and integration into our team of the ex-Essendon players?

4. Lower interchange cap each year.

5. Loss of a major coaching assistant each of the last two years.

Any other suggestions can be added.

 

[faquito]

Points 2 & 3 I agree with.

- Extra tall forward in the structure but having to sub out a small due to injuries wouldnt help. (Rounds 2 & 4)

- Toughest 4 weeks in the league

- Wingard, White, Polec all carrying something. Impey out. Thats a lot of outside pace hobbling.

 

[Kingfish73]

Reckon they have tweaked training for the long haul this year. Plus tough first 4 games.

 

[Forzaport]

Honestly not worried about it. We've started the year against the toughest opponents in the comp and have carried more underdone players than in previous years under Hinkley. We're doing bloody well considering.

 

[Eddie Dingle]

...2. Bad management of players in the NAB challenge, giving some first choice players no or little match practice?...

Harsh. Every club has injuries.

 

[Lou Zyffer]

Much like ladder positions after 4 rounds I think it's a little too early to call this. Let's see what our record is like after the half way mark.
Honestly though, notwithstanding the nerves factor, I wouldn't care if we didn't win a last quarter all year as long as we end up top two.
Interrupted pre-season and tough start would be large factors. Look for the trend to start to reverse by round 8.

 

[LeoMessi]

I'd say a combination of a grueling preseason, a tough first 5 rounds and Wingard, Polec, White, Hartlett carrying injuries/underdone in the preseason. Should have a lighter training this week to help freshen up their legs.

 

[snozulu]

6. Tough start to year playing the highest level of contested games your going to see. Last weeks game against north was full of pace all game and players may also have been feeling that against the Hawkes. I wouldn't read to much into it.

 

[DazzaTys]

I would suspect the fitness staff would implement a lighter load this week. I've absolute faith in Burgo though.

 

[Eddie Dingle]

I think, and as many others have said, that if you had offered me 2-2 considering who, where and when we were playing rounds 1-4 I'd have taken it in a heartbeat.

All things considered we are ahead of schedule you would think.

 

[Eddie Dingle]

6. Tough start to year playing the highest level of contested games your going to see. Last weeks game against north was full of pace all game and players may also have been feeling that against the Hawkes. I wouldn't read to much into it.

Good point.

Coming off a tough game at Etihad we were always going to tire.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Ryder and Monfries still at 80% match fitness and Lobbe still a bit away.

Put Wines, Gray and Impey in the team along with the above 3 fully fit and that will give us an extra 10% last quarter capability.

 

[mic59]

Hopefully it's too early to worry. A similar thin gappened with the Hawks last year when we had a good lead at half time, they scored 6-3 in the third but in that game we won the last. That was round 10 and we had a full team so that was probably the difference.

 

[rogerjames]

Harsh. Every club has injuries.

Wow that made sense

 

[Eddie Dingle]

Wow that made sense

Saying we managed players badly by not playing them despite the fact they were injured makes less sense.

 

[Janus]

AFL schedules us to play away in the second round at a ground that is nowhere near recovery facilities in the second week in the preseason. During this time we do a gruelling 2 hour session to simulate match fitness.

We then do a lot more running than expected against an Adelaide looking to sell hope to its supporters and wanting to hit Round 1 hard.

Then we travel to Perth in the first round to play a team that is a premiership threat and again, wants to prove that they can beat us and that last years semi final was an aberration. Hard contested lockdown footy that will drain anyone's fitness with a ruck who has played no preseason games leading the line.

Back home to play Sydney with a six day break. Hard contested lockdown footy once again against another premiership threat with an super underdone ruck selected to give some assistance to the ruck who is still building match fitness.

Over to the hard surface of Etihad to play a North Melbourne who also consider themselves a premiership threat to play another gruelling game, this time at high speed.

Then back to play Hawthorn who we dominate for a quarter with two of our best players out, another underdone ruck (but at least fit and able to contest) before they exploit our gruelling month in the last quarter.

Our fitness is fine. AFL scheduling is the problem.

 

[rogerjames]

Saying we managed players badly by not playing them despite the fact they were injured makes less sense.

Agree, I just meant you're not taking the **** in this thread which is unusual. Not a criticism though

 

[rogerjames]

AFL schedules us to play away in the second round at a ground that is nowhere near recovery facilities in the second week in the preseason. During this time we do a gruelling 2 hour session to simulate match fitness.

We then do a lot more running than expected against an Adelaide looking to sell hope to its supporters and wanting to hit Round 1 hard.

Then we travel to Perth in the first round to play a team that is a premiership threat and again, wants to prove that they can beat us and that last years semi final was an aberration. Hard contested lockdown footy that will drain anyone's fitness with a ruck who has played no preseason games leading the line.

Back home to play Sydney with a six day break. Hard contested lockdown footy once again against another premiership threat with an super underdone ruck selected to give some assistance to the ruck who is still building match fitness.

Over to the hard surface of Etihad to play a North Melbourne who also consider themselves a premiership threat to play another gruelling game, this time at high speed.

Then back to play Hawthorn who we dominate for a quarter with two of our best players out, another underdone ruck (but at least fit and able to contest) before they exploit our gruelling month in the last quarter.

Our fitness is fine. AFL scheduling is the problem.

We better not get a repeat of this next year otherwise I'll be convinced it is a deliberate targeting of us. Our draw the last 2 years has been over the top relative to where we finished.

 

[Janus]

We better not get a repeat of this next year otherwise I'll be convinced it is a deliberate targeting of us. Our draw the last 2 years has been over the top relative to where we finished.

I've got a bit of a theory about this. Have a look at Fremantle's draw and see how they 1) don't play a top four side from last year away from home until Hawthorn in Round 15 2) have all their double up games in the last six rounds with matches against North and us away but have "easy" games against Melbourne, St.Kilda and GWS at home to compensate and 3) played us first up so any fitness advantage we have over aging bodies is negated.

The AFL wants Fremantle to win their first flag this year before Sandilands and Pavlich retire, and they've set the draw up to give them the best chance.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

I've got a bit of a theory about this. Have a look at Fremantle's draw and see how they 1) don't play a top four side from last year away from home until Hawthorn in Round 15 2) have all their double up games in the last six rounds with matches against North and us away but have "easy" games against Melbourne, St.Kilda and GWS at home to compensate and 3) played us first up so any fitness advantage we have over aging bodies is negated.

The AFL wants Fremantle to win their first flag this year before Sandilands and Pavlich retire, and they've set the draw up to give them the best chance.

The AFL uses a computer system and do not deliberately set out to help Freo or anyone else. Just the luck of the draw.

 

[philreich]

If we're struggling to run out games in round 4, that's mildly annoying. If it's still happening in round 20, then I'll be bloody worried. Pretty sure that won't be the case though: I reckon we'll get better and better as the year progresses.

 

[Janus]

The AFL uses a computer system and do not deliberately set out to help Freo or anyone else. Just the luck of the draw.

So it's just dumb luck that they play their double up games in the last six rounds and don't play Sydney, Hawthorn, Port or North Melbourne away until Round 15? Wish we were that lucky...we'd be 4-0 too with their draw.

 

[70sDinosaur]

6. None of the above.

Early days yet. We're actually ahead of where we were last year in terms of the equivalent games.

Need to see a larger sample size before jumping to any conclusions.

 

[Long live PAFC]

I think the key points have been made re shortened preseason, tough opening games with a tough travel schedule, underdone players, poor SANFL fixture that didn't allow us to get games into players early and a plan to peak at the right time in the later half of the season.

The only things I would add are:

1) We aren't the fittest team, it is more a mental thing that we believe we are and that belief is still there.

2) Team selections - with the plan to play the extra tall and so many underdone players we needed extra midfielders. Young/Mitchell instead of Neade in the first round was an obvious one, especially when Redden came in the following week.

3) Injuries have already been mentioned but it was the second tier injuries in particular that hurt. Shaw may have been around the mark to come instead of Redden/Butcher and Moore would have likely been in from game one. Lobbe out really hurt, the injuries to Boak, Impey, White, Polec and lack of fitness for Ryder and Monfries all compounded to no run. Fortunately they will all come good and are building match fitness nicely!

 

[70sDinosaur]

I've got a bit of a theory about this. Have a look at Fremantle's draw and see how they 1) don't play a top four side from last year away from home until Hawthorn in Round 15 2) have all their double up games in the last six rounds with matches against North and us away but have "easy" games against Melbourne, St.Kilda and GWS at home to compensate and 3) played us first up so any fitness advantage we have over aging bodies is negated.

The AFL wants Fremantle to win their first flag this year before Sandilands and Pavlich retire, and they've set the draw up to give them the best chance.

Given their draw, it's not impossible that they'll go into that game against Hawthorn unbeaten.

I think it's going to be very difficult for us to finish above them on the ladder, even if we beat them in the last game.